October 9th, 2007
That Monday Night Game was a real treat. Here are this week’s predictions:
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
54.02 |
33.04 |
12.94 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
33.3 |
40.88 |
25.82 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
12.68 |
26.08 |
61.24 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
69.66 |
23.26 |
5.66 |
1.42 |
| Baltimore |
24.94 |
48.12 |
20.4 |
6.54 |
| Cleveland |
3.38 |
19.64 |
45.7 |
31.28 |
| Cincinnati |
2.02 |
8.98 |
28.24 |
60.76 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
64.84 |
23.8 |
10.52 |
0.84 |
| Tennessee |
21.44 |
43.78 |
27.72 |
7.06 |
| Jacksonville |
13.08 |
27.68 |
45.64 |
13.6 |
| Houston |
0.64 |
4.74 |
16.12 |
78.5 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
36.66 |
27.7 |
20.62 |
15.02 |
| Denver |
22.34 |
26.26 |
25.92 |
25.48 |
| Kansas City |
21.5 |
23.78 |
26.84 |
27.88 |
| Oakland |
19.5 |
22.26 |
26.62 |
31.62 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
81.58 |
14.62 |
3.64 |
0.16 |
| Washington |
11.56 |
42.78 |
41.46 |
4.2 |
| NY Giants |
6.68 |
40.94 |
46.18 |
6.2 |
| Philadelphia |
0.18 |
1.66 |
8.72 |
89.44 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
71.16 |
20.6 |
7.96 |
0.28 |
| Detroit |
17.34 |
42.0 |
36.72 |
3.94 |
| Chicago |
11.36 |
35.16 |
44.98 |
8.5 |
| Minnesota |
0.14 |
2.24 |
10.34 |
87.28 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
50.74 |
39.68 |
7.84 |
1.74 |
| Tampa Bay |
44.84 |
40.68 |
11.56 |
2.92 |
| Atlanta |
2.84 |
11.06 |
41.08 |
45.02 |
| New Orleans |
1.58 |
8.58 |
39.52 |
50.32 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
61.38 |
30.58 |
7.96 |
0.08 |
| Arizona |
32.98 |
47.86 |
19.12 |
0.04 |
| San Francisco |
5.64 |
21.54 |
71.82 |
1.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.02 |
1.1 |
98.88 |
Generated: Tue Oct 09 00:17:48 EDT 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
57.46 |
28.84 |
13.02 |
0.68 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
25.98 |
25.96 |
11.8 |
1.1 |
18.74 |
9.76 |
93.34 |
| Pittsburgh |
7.04 |
18.92 |
37.62 |
6.08 |
5.2 |
7.58 |
82.44 |
| Tennessee |
4.24 |
11.7 |
5.26 |
0.24 |
34.92 |
20.68 |
77.04 |
| Jacksonville |
2.72 |
6.7 |
3.42 |
0.24 |
23.62 |
27.24 |
63.94 |
| Baltimore |
2.38 |
5.76 |
14.52 |
2.28 |
10.04 |
15.74 |
50.72 |
| San Diego |
0.04 |
0.74 |
4.06 |
31.82 |
0.46 |
1.28 |
38.4 |
| Oakland |
0.04 |
0.36 |
2.12 |
16.98 |
0.38 |
1.28 |
21.16 |
| Houston |
0.06 |
0.36 |
0.2 |
0.02 |
3.34 |
6.18 |
10.16 |
| Cleveland |
0.02 |
0.24 |
2.18 |
0.94 |
1.84 |
5.64 |
10.86 |
| Kansas City |
0.02 |
0.08 |
1.7 |
19.7 |
0.16 |
0.7 |
22.36 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.18 |
2.66 |
19.5 |
0.32 |
0.94 |
23.6 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.16 |
1.44 |
0.42 |
0.9 |
2.56 |
5.48 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.32 |
0.38 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.1 |
0.12 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
61.8 |
14.64 |
4.46 |
0.68 |
12.12 |
3.72 |
97.42 |
| Green Bay |
13.7 |
26.26 |
23.56 |
7.64 |
5.12 |
6.08 |
82.36 |
| Seattle |
7.78 |
23.24 |
21.2 |
9.16 |
6.68 |
9.18 |
77.24 |
| Washington |
6.7 |
3.36 |
1.24 |
0.26 |
30.48 |
20.18 |
62.22 |
| Arizona |
2.96 |
11.12 |
12.14 |
6.76 |
6.98 |
11.42 |
51.38 |
| NY Giants |
3.08 |
2.28 |
1.0 |
0.32 |
24.42 |
18.82 |
49.92 |
| Carolina |
1.58 |
6.46 |
12.18 |
30.52 |
1.72 |
4.02 |
56.48 |
| Detroit |
0.96 |
4.26 |
7.94 |
4.18 |
4.26 |
8.12 |
29.72 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.94 |
3.82 |
8.6 |
31.48 |
1.36 |
2.86 |
49.06 |
| Chicago |
0.3 |
3.18 |
4.54 |
3.34 |
3.64 |
7.22 |
22.22 |
| San Francisco |
0.18 |
1.12 |
2.32 |
2.02 |
2.32 |
5.4 |
13.36 |
| New Orleans |
0.02 |
0.08 |
0.28 |
1.2 |
0.16 |
0.6 |
2.34 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.48 |
2.28 |
0.1 |
0.44 |
3.38 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.54 |
1.64 |
2.36 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.54 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Oct 09 00:17:48 EDT 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
October 1st, 2007
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
98.6 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.74 |
46.42 |
33.28 |
19.56 |
| Buffalo |
0.4 |
27.24 |
34.52 |
37.84 |
| Miami |
0.26 |
25.04 |
32.1 |
42.6 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
61.6 |
22.28 |
11.86 |
4.26 |
| Baltimore |
19.12 |
33.06 |
26.4 |
21.42 |
| Cincinnati |
14.0 |
27.66 |
31.2 |
27.14 |
| Cleveland |
5.28 |
17.0 |
30.54 |
47.18 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
79.38 |
14.96 |
4.74 |
0.92 |
| Jacksonville |
10.4 |
32.44 |
33.58 |
23.58 |
| Tennessee |
7.26 |
35.64 |
32.1 |
25.0 |
| Houston |
2.96 |
16.96 |
29.58 |
50.5 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Denver |
46.2 |
28.96 |
17.72 |
7.12 |
| Kansas City |
32.8 |
32.3 |
21.44 |
13.46 |
| San Diego |
14.58 |
23.92 |
34.0 |
27.5 |
| Oakland |
6.42 |
14.82 |
26.84 |
51.92 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
79.8 |
14.38 |
4.92 |
0.9 |
| Washington |
10.94 |
36.46 |
36.34 |
16.26 |
| NY Giants |
7.94 |
40.18 |
35.48 |
16.4 |
| Philadelphia |
1.32 |
8.98 |
23.26 |
66.44 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
68.86 |
21.9 |
8.28 |
0.96 |
| Detroit |
21.9 |
45.84 |
26.9 |
5.36 |
| Chicago |
8.7 |
27.56 |
45.62 |
18.12 |
| Minnesota |
0.54 |
4.7 |
19.2 |
75.56 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
58.32 |
26.52 |
12.14 |
3.02 |
| Carolina |
26.6 |
39.56 |
23.88 |
9.96 |
| Atlanta |
10.1 |
19.98 |
35.84 |
34.08 |
| New Orleans |
4.98 |
13.94 |
28.14 |
52.94 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
67.4 |
22.52 |
9.74 |
0.34 |
| Arizona |
18.16 |
39.4 |
40.56 |
1.88 |
| San Francisco |
14.4 |
37.5 |
46.5 |
1.6 |
| St Louis |
0.04 |
0.58 |
3.2 |
96.18 |
Generated: Mon Oct 01 22:51:45 EDT 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
47.6 |
29.82 |
14.2 |
6.98 |
0.28 |
0.38 |
99.26 |
| Indianapolis |
34.52 |
26.82 |
13.36 |
4.68 |
10.62 |
4.3 |
94.3 |
| Pittsburgh |
8.02 |
14.92 |
21.08 |
17.58 |
6.52 |
6.7 |
74.82 |
| Jacksonville |
2.38 |
4.44 |
2.34 |
1.24 |
19.94 |
14.18 |
44.52 |
| Denver |
1.92 |
6.7 |
15.8 |
21.78 |
4.84 |
7.44 |
58.48 |
| Baltimore |
1.7 |
3.88 |
7.08 |
6.46 |
8.28 |
9.8 |
37.2 |
| Kansas City |
1.24 |
4.44 |
9.66 |
17.46 |
5.06 |
6.94 |
44.8 |
| Tennessee |
1.22 |
2.9 |
2.04 |
1.1 |
19.22 |
13.56 |
40.04 |
| Cincinnati |
0.36 |
2.1 |
5.3 |
6.24 |
5.8 |
8.04 |
27.84 |
| Houston |
0.4 |
1.1 |
0.92 |
0.54 |
8.1 |
9.3 |
20.36 |
| San Diego |
0.22 |
1.78 |
4.16 |
8.42 |
3.18 |
5.44 |
23.2 |
| Cleveland |
0.22 |
0.44 |
1.6 |
3.02 |
2.7 |
4.74 |
12.72 |
| Oakland |
0.12 |
0.48 |
2.04 |
3.78 |
2.68 |
4.02 |
13.12 |
| NY Jets |
0.06 |
0.12 |
0.28 |
0.28 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
5.74 |
| Buffalo |
0.02 |
0.04 |
0.08 |
0.26 |
0.3 |
0.84 |
1.54 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.06 |
0.18 |
0.58 |
1.22 |
2.06 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
41.86 |
20.22 |
12.26 |
5.46 |
7.8 |
3.76 |
91.36 |
| Green Bay |
20.84 |
20.9 |
17.72 |
9.4 |
8.28 |
6.5 |
83.64 |
| Seattle |
15.84 |
21.76 |
19.92 |
9.88 |
7.86 |
6.5 |
81.76 |
| Tampa Bay |
5.18 |
8.94 |
13.94 |
30.26 |
3.44 |
4.74 |
66.5 |
| Detroit |
3.86 |
5.62 |
6.88 |
5.54 |
10.2 |
10.24 |
42.34 |
| Washington |
3.56 |
3.08 |
2.68 |
1.62 |
12.3 |
11.52 |
34.76 |
| Arizona |
2.78 |
5.08 |
5.58 |
4.72 |
11.46 |
10.66 |
40.28 |
| San Francisco |
2.14 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
3.96 |
10.16 |
11.2 |
35.76 |
| Carolina |
1.66 |
4.84 |
6.5 |
13.6 |
5.72 |
6.96 |
39.28 |
| NY Giants |
1.14 |
2.26 |
2.72 |
1.82 |
11.68 |
11.46 |
31.08 |
| Chicago |
0.62 |
2.08 |
3.26 |
2.74 |
5.84 |
7.32 |
21.86 |
| Atlanta |
0.32 |
0.82 |
2.36 |
6.6 |
1.54 |
3.18 |
14.82 |
| Philadelphia |
0.12 |
0.2 |
0.46 |
0.54 |
2.08 |
2.96 |
6.36 |
| New Orleans |
0.06 |
0.44 |
0.86 |
3.62 |
1.02 |
2.02 |
8.02 |
| Minnesota |
0.02 |
0.06 |
0.24 |
0.22 |
0.62 |
0.98 |
2.14 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
Generated: Mon Oct 01 22:51:45 EDT 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
September 24th, 2007
Here are the predictions after week 3.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
95.72 |
3.94 |
0.32 |
0.02 |
| NY Jets |
3.18 |
61.42 |
25.0 |
10.4 |
| Miami |
0.7 |
19.0 |
42.18 |
38.12 |
| Buffalo |
0.4 |
15.64 |
32.5 |
51.46 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
51.3 |
30.86 |
15.5 |
2.34 |
| Baltimore |
36.16 |
40.24 |
19.24 |
4.36 |
| Cincinnati |
11.64 |
24.52 |
47.54 |
16.3 |
| Cleveland |
0.9 |
4.38 |
17.72 |
77.0 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
74.58 |
17.9 |
6.16 |
1.36 |
| Tennessee |
9.58 |
33.06 |
31.46 |
25.9 |
| Jacksonville |
11.48 |
29.36 |
33.28 |
25.88 |
| Houston |
4.36 |
19.68 |
29.1 |
46.86 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Denver |
54.36 |
30.76 |
11.5 |
3.38 |
| San Diego |
32.9 |
37.72 |
21.28 |
8.1 |
| Kansas City |
10.34 |
21.8 |
40.68 |
27.18 |
| Oakland |
2.4 |
9.72 |
26.54 |
61.34 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
78.08 |
15.04 |
5.36 |
1.52 |
| Washington |
12.12 |
38.4 |
30.8 |
18.68 |
| NY Giants |
4.76 |
25.32 |
31.72 |
38.2 |
| Philadelphia |
5.04 |
21.24 |
32.12 |
41.6 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
62.36 |
23.72 |
10.94 |
2.98 |
| Chicago |
20.12 |
36.24 |
29.5 |
14.14 |
| Detroit |
15.24 |
30.78 |
36.06 |
17.92 |
| Minnesota |
2.28 |
9.26 |
23.5 |
64.96 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
56.78 |
25.58 |
13.34 |
4.3 |
| Tampa Bay |
25.44 |
35.82 |
25.56 |
13.18 |
| New Orleans |
13.64 |
25.42 |
35.14 |
25.8 |
| Atlanta |
4.14 |
13.18 |
25.96 |
56.72 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Francisco |
47.08 |
31.94 |
17.58 |
3.4 |
| Seattle |
38.72 |
35.44 |
19.76 |
6.08 |
| Arizona |
12.9 |
26.12 |
42.62 |
18.36 |
| St Louis |
1.3 |
6.5 |
20.04 |
72.16 |
Generated: Tue Sep 25 00:04:17 EDT 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
39.16 |
26.54 |
18.9 |
11.12 |
0.7 |
0.86 |
97.28 |
| Indianapolis |
27.66 |
22.84 |
15.08 |
9.0 |
8.1 |
6.78 |
89.46 |
| Pittsburgh |
11.92 |
14.66 |
15.04 |
9.68 |
12.38 |
9.36 |
73.04 |
| Baltimore |
8.64 |
10.3 |
10.34 |
6.88 |
17.7 |
12.24 |
66.1 |
| Denver |
4.64 |
9.26 |
15.88 |
24.58 |
4.78 |
6.2 |
65.34 |
| Jacksonville |
2.12 |
3.46 |
3.56 |
2.34 |
13.76 |
12.76 |
38.0 |
| San Diego |
1.6 |
4.6 |
8.18 |
18.52 |
4.8 |
6.88 |
44.58 |
| Tennessee |
1.68 |
2.68 |
2.88 |
2.34 |
13.62 |
12.76 |
35.96 |
| Cincinnati |
1.56 |
2.86 |
4.1 |
3.12 |
8.86 |
9.96 |
30.46 |
| Houston |
0.6 |
1.16 |
1.62 |
0.98 |
6.88 |
9.16 |
20.4 |
| Kansas City |
0.2 |
0.8 |
2.34 |
7.0 |
1.94 |
3.26 |
15.54 |
| NY Jets |
0.16 |
0.44 |
1.24 |
1.34 |
4.26 |
4.88 |
12.32 |
| Oakland |
0.04 |
0.12 |
0.28 |
1.96 |
0.62 |
1.6 |
4.62 |
| Miami |
0.02 |
0.16 |
0.12 |
0.4 |
0.78 |
1.38 |
2.86 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.2 |
0.24 |
0.48 |
1.12 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.32 |
0.54 |
0.58 |
1.44 |
2.92 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
45.24 |
18.68 |
10.26 |
3.9 |
8.64 |
4.94 |
91.66 |
| Green Bay |
17.8 |
19.12 |
15.96 |
9.48 |
8.3 |
6.54 |
77.2 |
| Carolina |
9.42 |
13.66 |
15.22 |
18.48 |
4.88 |
5.28 |
66.94 |
| San Francisco |
7.56 |
12.4 |
13.18 |
13.94 |
7.04 |
7.52 |
61.64 |
| Seattle |
5.5 |
9.38 |
11.58 |
12.26 |
8.2 |
7.94 |
54.86 |
| Washington |
3.62 |
4.04 |
2.92 |
1.54 |
16.44 |
12.92 |
41.48 |
| Chicago |
2.06 |
5.66 |
6.64 |
5.76 |
7.72 |
8.76 |
36.6 |
| Tampa Bay |
2.08 |
4.84 |
6.5 |
12.02 |
5.0 |
6.2 |
36.64 |
| Detroit |
2.2 |
3.34 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
6.14 |
7.44 |
28.82 |
| Arizona |
1.22 |
3.0 |
3.82 |
4.86 |
4.32 |
5.12 |
22.34 |
| Philadelphia |
1.14 |
1.44 |
1.46 |
1.0 |
8.38 |
8.36 |
21.78 |
| NY Giants |
1.04 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.02 |
8.54 |
8.48 |
21.78 |
| New Orleans |
0.84 |
2.16 |
3.72 |
6.92 |
3.38 |
5.42 |
22.44 |
| Atlanta |
0.12 |
0.44 |
1.08 |
2.5 |
1.12 |
1.9 |
7.16 |
| St Louis |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.22 |
0.88 |
0.4 |
0.88 |
2.58 |
| Minnesota |
0.06 |
0.34 |
0.84 |
1.04 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
6.08 |
Generated: Tue Sep 25 00:04:17 EDT 2007
Posted in Weeky Predictions | No Comments »
September 18th, 2007
Here are the predictions after week 2.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
96.74 |
2.96 |
0.22 |
0.08 |
| NY Jets |
1.34 |
42.52 |
32.58 |
23.56 |
| Miami |
1.42 |
33.24 |
34.58 |
30.76 |
| Buffalo |
0.5 |
21.28 |
32.62 |
45.6 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
44.18 |
29.06 |
19.94 |
6.82 |
| Cincinnati |
28.78 |
31.82 |
27.86 |
11.54 |
| Baltimore |
24.26 |
29.68 |
30.42 |
15.64 |
| Cleveland |
2.78 |
9.44 |
21.78 |
66.0 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
86.8 |
10.36 |
2.4 |
0.44 |
| Jacksonville |
7.92 |
40.94 |
30.82 |
20.32 |
| Tennessee |
2.88 |
28.2 |
35.8 |
33.12 |
| Houston |
2.4 |
20.5 |
30.98 |
46.12 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Denver |
60.46 |
35.62 |
3.72 |
0.2 |
| San Diego |
37.8 |
54.3 |
7.18 |
0.72 |
| Kansas City |
1.62 |
8.64 |
64.46 |
25.28 |
| Oakland |
0.12 |
1.44 |
24.64 |
73.8 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
65.36 |
26.88 |
6.52 |
1.24 |
| Washington |
29.48 |
48.6 |
16.3 |
5.62 |
| Philadelphia |
3.5 |
13.74 |
45.4 |
37.36 |
| NY Giants |
1.66 |
10.78 |
31.78 |
55.78 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
40.74 |
28.98 |
20.0 |
10.28 |
| Green Bay |
36.32 |
31.46 |
20.88 |
11.34 |
| Detroit |
17.7 |
27.92 |
33.64 |
20.74 |
| Minnesota |
5.24 |
11.64 |
25.48 |
57.64 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
72.82 |
16.8 |
7.48 |
2.9 |
| New Orleans |
11.06 |
30.72 |
30.98 |
27.24 |
| Tampa Bay |
8.84 |
29.1 |
32.32 |
29.74 |
| Atlanta |
7.28 |
23.38 |
29.22 |
40.12 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Francisco |
63.42 |
23.84 |
10.42 |
2.32 |
| Seattle |
22.82 |
36.38 |
27.5 |
13.3 |
| Arizona |
10.9 |
27.64 |
37.42 |
24.04 |
| St Louis |
2.86 |
12.14 |
24.66 |
60.34 |
Generated: Mon Sep 17 23:51:00 EDT 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
36.22 |
24.64 |
18.98 |
16.9 |
0.6 |
0.56 |
97.9 |
| Indianapolis |
26.88 |
21.4 |
20.64 |
17.88 |
3.06 |
3.02 |
92.88 |
| Denver |
16.32 |
18.26 |
15.62 |
10.26 |
17.72 |
8.48 |
86.66 |
| San Diego |
6.46 |
10.7 |
10.58 |
10.06 |
20.28 |
12.66 |
70.74 |
| Pittsburgh |
5.86 |
10.5 |
12.6 |
15.22 |
11.38 |
11.74 |
67.3 |
| Cincinnati |
3.6 |
6.24 |
8.88 |
10.06 |
12.38 |
14.48 |
55.64 |
| Baltimore |
3.32 |
5.02 |
7.38 |
8.54 |
10.88 |
13.92 |
49.06 |
| Jacksonville |
0.74 |
1.66 |
2.2 |
3.32 |
8.28 |
9.66 |
25.86 |
| Tennessee |
0.14 |
0.42 |
0.96 |
1.36 |
4.5 |
5.92 |
13.3 |
| Cleveland |
0.14 |
0.24 |
0.66 |
1.74 |
2.28 |
4.58 |
9.64 |
| Miami |
0.1 |
0.24 |
0.26 |
0.82 |
1.58 |
2.9 |
5.9 |
| Houston |
0.08 |
0.32 |
0.58 |
1.42 |
2.98 |
4.84 |
10.22 |
| NY Jets |
0.08 |
0.22 |
0.2 |
0.84 |
1.88 |
3.14 |
6.36 |
| Kansas City |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.38 |
1.06 |
1.66 |
2.62 |
5.9 |
| Buffalo |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.42 |
0.46 |
1.06 |
2.02 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.1 |
0.08 |
0.42 |
0.62 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
29.1 |
17.4 |
12.02 |
6.84 |
12.34 |
6.92 |
84.62 |
| Carolina |
21.38 |
18.5 |
17.8 |
15.14 |
3.74 |
4.06 |
80.62 |
| San Francisco |
10.42 |
14.7 |
16.32 |
21.98 |
3.94 |
4.96 |
72.32 |
| Chicago |
10.36 |
11.54 |
11.32 |
7.52 |
10.34 |
9.3 |
60.38 |
| Washington |
9.46 |
9.02 |
6.26 |
4.74 |
19.1 |
12.78 |
61.36 |
| Green Bay |
8.66 |
10.24 |
9.98 |
7.44 |
12.76 |
10.82 |
59.9 |
| Detroit |
3.54 |
4.52 |
4.98 |
4.66 |
8.08 |
9.62 |
35.4 |
| Seattle |
2.3 |
4.44 |
6.48 |
9.6 |
5.26 |
7.0 |
35.08 |
| Arizona |
1.08 |
1.6 |
2.82 |
5.4 |
3.44 |
4.62 |
18.96 |
| New Orleans |
0.96 |
2.42 |
3.36 |
4.32 |
4.4 |
6.42 |
21.88 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.78 |
1.64 |
2.62 |
3.8 |
3.54 |
5.4 |
17.78 |
| Minnesota |
0.8 |
1.14 |
1.72 |
1.58 |
3.24 |
4.28 |
12.76 |
| Philadelphia |
0.54 |
1.04 |
0.82 |
1.1 |
3.94 |
5.74 |
13.18 |
| Atlanta |
0.44 |
1.32 |
2.34 |
3.18 |
2.34 |
3.42 |
13.04 |
| St Louis |
0.1 |
0.18 |
0.56 |
2.02 |
0.96 |
1.16 |
4.98 |
| NY Giants |
0.08 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.68 |
2.58 |
3.5 |
7.74 |
Generated: Mon Sep 17 23:51:00 EDT 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
September 11th, 2007
Here are the predictions following the week 1 games.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
90.98 |
7.18 |
1.7 |
0.14 |
| NY Jets |
3.74 |
40.58 |
34.16 |
21.52 |
| Miami |
3.74 |
35.54 |
35.36 |
25.36 |
| Buffalo |
1.54 |
16.7 |
28.78 |
52.98 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Cincinnati |
45.22 |
31.5 |
20.38 |
2.9 |
| Pittsburgh |
32.48 |
34.68 |
29.16 |
3.68 |
| Baltimore |
21.52 |
30.82 |
38.22 |
9.44 |
| Cleveland |
0.78 |
3.0 |
12.24 |
83.98 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
75.86 |
16.96 |
5.66 |
1.52 |
| Tennessee |
10.36 |
34.46 |
31.9 |
23.28 |
| Jacksonville |
8.88 |
29.08 |
33.4 |
28.64 |
| Houston |
4.9 |
19.5 |
29.04 |
46.56 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
57.84 |
33.72 |
7.62 |
0.82 |
| Denver |
36.94 |
47.54 |
13.98 |
1.54 |
| Kansas City |
4.76 |
16.5 |
60.32 |
18.42 |
| Oakland |
0.46 |
2.24 |
18.08 |
79.22 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
53.36 |
24.48 |
14.88 |
7.28 |
| Philadelphia |
18.54 |
27.02 |
28.66 |
25.78 |
| Washington |
17.82 |
26.46 |
27.22 |
28.5 |
| NY Giants |
10.28 |
22.04 |
29.24 |
38.44 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
53.58 |
26.62 |
13.62 |
6.18 |
| Green Bay |
23.56 |
31.02 |
25.48 |
19.94 |
| Minnesota |
12.32 |
22.48 |
30.34 |
34.86 |
| Detroit |
10.54 |
19.88 |
30.56 |
39.02 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
41.72 |
31.08 |
19.04 |
8.16 |
| New Orleans |
36.56 |
32.94 |
21.48 |
9.02 |
| Atlanta |
17.4 |
24.62 |
34.78 |
23.2 |
| Tampa Bay |
4.32 |
11.36 |
24.7 |
59.62 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
48.14 |
28.38 |
15.4 |
8.08 |
| San Francisco |
33.2 |
31.92 |
23.5 |
11.38 |
| Arizona |
9.08 |
19.66 |
31.5 |
39.76 |
| St Louis |
9.58 |
20.04 |
29.6 |
40.78 |
Generated: Tue Sep 11 01:12:09 EDT 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
28.3 |
21.36 |
20.06 |
21.26 |
1.28 |
1.72 |
93.98 |
| Indianapolis |
19.9 |
18.34 |
18.52 |
19.1 |
4.18 |
4.34 |
84.38 |
| San Diego |
17.9 |
17.0 |
12.64 |
10.3 |
14.12 |
8.42 |
80.38 |
| Cincinnati |
10.74 |
12.7 |
12.02 |
9.76 |
12.44 |
11.04 |
68.7 |
| Denver |
10.98 |
10.42 |
8.72 |
6.82 |
21.34 |
12.34 |
70.62 |
| Pittsburgh |
5.94 |
8.3 |
9.84 |
8.4 |
12.02 |
12.62 |
57.12 |
| Baltimore |
3.22 |
5.4 |
6.68 |
6.22 |
11.04 |
12.42 |
44.98 |
| Tennessee |
0.8 |
1.88 |
3.12 |
4.56 |
4.9 |
7.06 |
22.32 |
| Jacksonville |
0.66 |
1.32 |
2.86 |
4.04 |
4.38 |
6.92 |
20.18 |
| Kansas City |
0.44 |
0.94 |
1.5 |
1.88 |
4.1 |
5.9 |
14.76 |
| Miami |
0.44 |
0.52 |
0.92 |
1.86 |
2.86 |
4.44 |
11.04 |
| Houston |
0.3 |
0.84 |
1.4 |
2.36 |
2.52 |
3.84 |
11.26 |
| NY Jets |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.08 |
1.66 |
3.62 |
5.8 |
13.16 |
| Buffalo |
0.04 |
0.12 |
0.34 |
1.04 |
0.48 |
1.2 |
3.22 |
| Cleveland |
0.04 |
0.08 |
0.2 |
0.46 |
0.38 |
1.1 |
2.26 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.1 |
0.28 |
0.34 |
0.84 |
1.64 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
23.24 |
14.7 |
9.72 |
5.7 |
11.62 |
7.32 |
72.3 |
| Chicago |
16.02 |
14.08 |
13.28 |
10.2 |
6.46 |
6.52 |
66.56 |
| Carolina |
12.7 |
12.0 |
10.54 |
6.48 |
9.36 |
7.9 |
58.98 |
| New Orleans |
9.84 |
9.3 |
9.92 |
7.5 |
9.3 |
8.36 |
54.22 |
| Seattle |
7.86 |
10.86 |
11.82 |
17.6 |
3.84 |
5.2 |
57.18 |
| Philadelphia |
5.7 |
5.06 |
4.58 |
3.2 |
10.2 |
9.78 |
38.52 |
| Washington |
5.06 |
5.44 |
4.18 |
3.14 |
10.6 |
9.22 |
37.64 |
| Green Bay |
4.78 |
5.68 |
6.88 |
6.22 |
7.18 |
7.36 |
38.1 |
| San Francisco |
4.42 |
6.56 |
8.3 |
13.92 |
4.22 |
5.56 |
42.98 |
| Atlanta |
3.02 |
4.3 |
5.16 |
4.92 |
5.26 |
6.3 |
28.96 |
| NY Giants |
2.56 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
2.02 |
9.38 |
8.38 |
28.04 |
| Minnesota |
1.64 |
2.86 |
4.0 |
3.82 |
4.54 |
5.76 |
22.62 |
| Detroit |
1.34 |
2.62 |
2.8 |
3.78 |
3.62 |
4.48 |
18.64 |
| Arizona |
0.72 |
1.38 |
2.68 |
4.3 |
1.78 |
2.86 |
13.72 |
| St Louis |
0.56 |
1.24 |
2.58 |
5.2 |
1.22 |
2.26 |
13.06 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.54 |
0.72 |
1.06 |
2.0 |
1.42 |
2.74 |
8.48 |
Generated: Tue Sep 11 01:12:09 EDT 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
September 8th, 2007
Here are the 2oo7 Preseason Playoff predictions. The interactive software is available at www.nfl-forecast.com. So far the software and algorithms are pretty much the same as last year. However, I’m hoping to implement an improved prediction algorithm in the near future.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
80.16 |
14.94 |
4.12 |
0.78 |
| NY Jets |
11.28 |
40.48 |
30.9 |
17.34 |
| Miami |
6.1 |
29.08 |
35.52 |
29.3 |
| Buffalo |
2.46 |
15.5 |
29.46 |
52.58 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Baltimore |
38.96 |
30.58 |
23.16 |
7.3 |
| Cincinnati |
34.02 |
31.3 |
26.36 |
8.32 |
| Pittsburgh |
24.86 |
31.08 |
31.54 |
12.52 |
| Cleveland |
2.16 |
7.04 |
18.94 |
71.86 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
65.6 |
25.9 |
6.9 |
1.6 |
| Jacksonville |
26.94 |
47.34 |
18.82 |
6.9 |
| Tennessee |
5.54 |
17.46 |
45.28 |
31.72 |
| Houston |
1.92 |
9.3 |
29.0 |
59.78 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
54.36 |
31.82 |
11.78 |
2.04 |
| Denver |
36.14 |
41.56 |
18.84 |
3.46 |
| Kansas City |
8.96 |
21.9 |
49.3 |
19.84 |
| Oakland |
0.54 |
4.72 |
20.08 |
74.66 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Philadelphia |
35.3 |
29.7 |
22.62 |
12.38 |
| Dallas |
36.92 |
29.76 |
20.62 |
12.7 |
| NY Giants |
18.54 |
24.4 |
29.2 |
27.86 |
| Washington |
9.24 |
16.14 |
27.56 |
47.06 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
74.96 |
17.32 |
6.1 |
1.62 |
| Green Bay |
13.5 |
37.46 |
29.52 |
19.52 |
| Minnesota |
7.36 |
26.52 |
33.3 |
32.82 |
| Detroit |
4.18 |
18.7 |
31.08 |
46.04 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New Orleans |
38.86 |
28.48 |
20.58 |
12.08 |
| Carolina |
32.58 |
29.16 |
23.06 |
15.2 |
| Atlanta |
19.84 |
24.72 |
30.28 |
25.16 |
| Tampa Bay |
8.72 |
17.64 |
26.08 |
47.56 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
40.56 |
27.6 |
18.98 |
12.86 |
| San Francisco |
23.4 |
24.84 |
26.14 |
25.62 |
| St Louis |
19.9 |
26.06 |
27.1 |
26.94 |
| Arizona |
16.14 |
21.5 |
27.78 |
34.58 |
Generated: Sat Sep 08 12:45:13 EDT 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
26.12 |
20.46 |
17.52 |
16.06 |
3.48 |
3.56 |
87.2 |
| Indianapolis |
18.46 |
16.24 |
15.34 |
15.56 |
6.68 |
6.76 |
79.04 |
| San Diego |
18.2 |
14.66 |
12.24 |
9.26 |
13.34 |
8.8 |
76.5 |
| Denver |
10.22 |
9.82 |
9.12 |
6.98 |
16.72 |
11.14 |
64.0 |
| Baltimore |
7.74 |
10.34 |
10.6 |
10.28 |
8.6 |
9.38 |
56.94 |
| Cincinnati |
6.86 |
8.16 |
9.38 |
9.62 |
9.0 |
10.0 |
53.02 |
| Jacksonville |
4.64 |
6.68 |
7.2 |
8.42 |
10.9 |
9.52 |
47.36 |
| Pittsburgh |
3.68 |
5.94 |
7.44 |
7.8 |
8.2 |
9.12 |
42.18 |
| Kansas City |
1.48 |
2.08 |
2.68 |
2.72 |
6.28 |
7.88 |
23.12 |
| NY Jets |
1.34 |
2.34 |
3.0 |
4.6 |
6.38 |
7.14 |
24.8 |
| Miami |
0.72 |
1.24 |
1.84 |
2.3 |
3.7 |
5.34 |
15.14 |
| Tennessee |
0.3 |
1.08 |
1.54 |
2.62 |
2.42 |
4.04 |
12.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.16 |
0.26 |
0.7 |
1.34 |
1.64 |
2.42 |
6.52 |
| Cleveland |
0.04 |
0.4 |
0.54 |
1.18 |
1.12 |
2.1 |
5.38 |
| Houston |
0.02 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.84 |
1.6 |
4.36 |
| Oakland |
0.02 |
0.1 |
0.26 |
0.16 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
2.44 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Chicago |
23.54 |
18.8 |
16.88 |
15.74 |
3.52 |
3.34 |
81.82 |
| Dallas |
13.72 |
10.04 |
8.12 |
5.04 |
12.3 |
9.78 |
59.0 |
| Philadelphia |
12.18 |
9.78 |
8.02 |
5.32 |
12.16 |
9.62 |
57.08 |
| New Orleans |
10.86 |
10.94 |
9.84 |
7.22 |
9.16 |
8.1 |
56.12 |
| Carolina |
8.96 |
10.08 |
7.44 |
6.1 |
9.62 |
8.64 |
50.84 |
| Seattle |
7.32 |
8.9 |
10.66 |
13.68 |
4.66 |
5.92 |
51.14 |
| NY Giants |
4.84 |
5.56 |
4.62 |
3.52 |
9.46 |
9.24 |
37.24 |
| Atlanta |
4.4 |
5.14 |
5.46 |
4.84 |
7.42 |
7.74 |
35.0 |
| San Francisco |
2.8 |
5.16 |
6.5 |
8.94 |
3.86 |
4.72 |
31.98 |
| Washington |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.38 |
2.16 |
5.88 |
6.6 |
21.72 |
| St Louis |
2.0 |
4.0 |
5.68 |
8.22 |
4.78 |
5.14 |
29.82 |
| Green Bay |
2.1 |
2.7 |
3.96 |
4.74 |
5.36 |
5.7 |
24.56 |
| Arizona |
2.04 |
2.9 |
4.6 |
6.6 |
2.74 |
4.42 |
23.3 |
| Tampa Bay |
1.76 |
2.04 |
2.52 |
2.4 |
3.94 |
5.32 |
17.98 |
| Minnesota |
0.7 |
1.08 |
2.24 |
3.34 |
3.34 |
3.4 |
14.1 |
| Detroit |
0.38 |
0.58 |
1.08 |
2.14 |
1.8 |
2.32 |
8.3 |
Generated: Sat Sep 08 12:45:13 EDT 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
December 26th, 2006
Here they are.
Once the playoff teams are finalized, I’ll do a year in reveiw post and a preview of improvements on slate for next season.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Baltimore |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
69.68 |
30.32 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
30.32 |
69.68 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
85.48 |
14.52 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
14.52 |
85.48 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Philadelphia |
71.68 |
28.32 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dallas |
28.32 |
71.68 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New Orleans |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
75.08 |
24.92 |
0.0 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
24.92 |
75.08 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
83.9 |
16.1 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
16.1 |
75.4 |
8.5 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
91.5 |
Generated: Tue Dec 26 00:38:01 EST 2006
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| San Diego |
91.28 |
8.72 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Baltimore |
8.72 |
71.08 |
20.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.0 |
20.2 |
64.86 |
14.94 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| New England |
0.0 |
0.0 |
14.94 |
85.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
74.84 |
10.64 |
85.48 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22.84 |
61.22 |
84.06 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.32 |
21.02 |
23.34 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.86 |
2.86 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.96 |
1.96 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Chicago |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
71.68 |
0.0 |
28.32 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Dallas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
28.32 |
0.0 |
71.68 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
68.64 |
68.64 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
10.58 |
10.58 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.64 |
7.64 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.84 |
4.84 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 26 00:38:01 EST 2006
Posted in Articles, Weeky Predictions | No Comments »
December 19th, 2006
The end is near, the end is near!
I’ll post the DVOA comparison graph tomorrow. Should be interesting.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
92.02 |
7.98 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
7.98 |
84.46 |
7.56 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
7.56 |
89.04 |
3.4 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.4 |
96.6 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Baltimore |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
92.36 |
7.64 |
0.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
7.64 |
92.36 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
70.44 |
29.56 |
0.0 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
29.56 |
70.44 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
77.14 |
22.86 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
22.86 |
77.14 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
69.84 |
27.96 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
| Philadelphia |
30.16 |
50.56 |
19.28 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
21.48 |
78.52 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
53.86 |
46.14 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
46.14 |
53.86 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New Orleans |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
69.56 |
30.44 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
30.44 |
69.56 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
96.28 |
3.72 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
3.72 |
67.54 |
26.64 |
2.1 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
27.66 |
70.94 |
1.4 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
1.08 |
2.42 |
96.5 |
Generated: Tue Dec 19 00:30:23 EST 2006
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| San Diego |
86.86 |
11.64 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Baltimore |
11.06 |
16.2 |
69.28 |
3.46 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
2.08 |
72.0 |
23.42 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| New England |
0.0 |
0.16 |
5.8 |
86.06 |
2.26 |
3.0 |
97.28 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.98 |
11.72 |
34.06 |
53.76 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
42.76 |
12.8 |
55.56 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
35.78 |
21.24 |
57.02 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6.74 |
20.88 |
27.62 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.52 |
3.1 |
3.62 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.18 |
1.98 |
2.16 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
1.14 |
1.18 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Chicago |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
66.26 |
31.1 |
2.64 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Dallas |
0.0 |
30.2 |
37.0 |
2.64 |
27.96 |
2.2 |
100.0 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
3.22 |
26.24 |
0.7 |
36.7 |
22.6 |
89.46 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.32 |
5.66 |
90.3 |
0.0 |
0.46 |
96.74 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.72 |
0.0 |
1.42 |
5.14 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
17.66 |
36.5 |
54.16 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
15.76 |
12.64 |
28.4 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.92 |
20.2 |
22.12 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.68 |
1.68 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 19 00:30:23 EST 2006
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
December 12th, 2006
Here are this week’s forecasts.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
93.2 |
6.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
6.8 |
64.62 |
26.8 |
1.78 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
19.52 |
48.86 |
31.62 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
9.06 |
24.34 |
66.6 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Baltimore |
95.42 |
4.58 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
4.58 |
92.72 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
2.7 |
96.2 |
1.1 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
98.9 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
97.98 |
2.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
2.02 |
85.28 |
12.7 |
0.0 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
12.7 |
86.28 |
1.02 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.02 |
98.98 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
54.98 |
45.02 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
45.02 |
54.98 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
66.36 |
24.66 |
8.98 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
18.24 |
49.44 |
32.32 |
0.0 |
| Philadelphia |
15.4 |
25.9 |
58.7 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
69.32 |
30.68 |
0.0 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
30.68 |
69.32 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New Orleans |
98.22 |
1.78 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Atlanta |
0.36 |
63.54 |
36.1 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
1.42 |
34.68 |
63.9 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
98.34 |
1.66 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
35.26 |
50.5 |
14.24 |
| San Francisco |
1.66 |
52.84 |
25.4 |
20.1 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
10.24 |
24.1 |
65.66 |
Generated: Tue Dec 12 00:17:35 EST 2006
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| San Diego |
76.02 |
19.58 |
4.26 |
0.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Baltimore |
16.4 |
26.06 |
47.96 |
5.0 |
3.28 |
1.22 |
99.92 |
| Indianapolis |
7.58 |
50.78 |
32.28 |
7.34 |
1.02 |
0.8 |
99.8 |
| New England |
0.0 |
2.12 |
12.84 |
78.24 |
1.12 |
1.78 |
96.1 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
1.18 |
1.24 |
2.16 |
38.28 |
24.26 |
67.12 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.28 |
1.42 |
0.32 |
20.8 |
28.84 |
51.66 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6.8 |
2.82 |
10.9 |
20.52 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
27.3 |
16.42 |
43.72 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.56 |
10.38 |
14.94 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.62 |
2.76 |
3.38 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.14 |
1.32 |
1.46 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.72 |
0.76 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.6 |
0.62 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Chicago |
97.94 |
2.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| New Orleans |
2.06 |
77.36 |
15.26 |
3.54 |
0.46 |
0.94 |
99.62 |
| Dallas |
0.0 |
10.56 |
41.66 |
14.14 |
16.34 |
10.28 |
92.98 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
3.82 |
27.36 |
67.16 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
98.38 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
5.54 |
4.58 |
8.12 |
35.44 |
19.32 |
73.0 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.48 |
10.86 |
4.06 |
20.5 |
25.42 |
61.32 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.18 |
0.12 |
0.06 |
17.96 |
17.24 |
35.56 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.16 |
1.26 |
1.2 |
5.6 |
8.22 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.66 |
0.0 |
0.12 |
1.78 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.08 |
20.56 |
28.64 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.36 |
0.38 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 12 00:17:35 EST 2006
Posted in Weeky Predictions | No Comments »
December 5th, 2006
I’ve prepared the comparison between playoff predictions based on DVOA power ratings and NFL-Forecast playoff predictions in graphical time-series form , from week 9 through week 13. The filled circles represent DVOA predictions while the open circles represent my predictions. Hopefully the team-based color coding that I used is self explanatory. I’ll include the Week 13 DVOA ratings as soon as Mike Harris posts them.
The first set of graphs shows the division races (I’ve shown only teams that have had a significant chance since week 9). All 8 division races appear to be converging to selecting a champion, using both the DVOA and NFL-Forecast projections. DVOA ratings did significantly better in predicting the AFC West race, recognizing the superiority of the Chargers compared to the Broncos. In the NFC East race, my software had greater misplaced confidence in the Giants than DVOA, but transferred this misplaced confidence to the Eagles. Neither system really picked out the Cowboys as the division winner significantly better that the other. In the rest of the races, the predictions were comparable, with DVOA converging to apparent division winners slightly faster than NFL-forecast, with the exception of the NFC West race. My system still holds a bit of hope for the Jets, to eek out the AFC East title, while the DVOA has declared the race all but over. In contrast, the Wild Card races are not converging, with only 4 weeks remaining in the season.
The Wild Card race this year appears to be a white noise process, with team’s fortunes rising and falling on a weekly basis. The early front runners as predicted by both systems, the Broncos and Giants, have lost much of their lead. It will be interesting to see if either system outperforms the other in the WC race, but the lack of convergence would seem to indicate that any better performance of one system over the other would be attributable to luck rather than reproducible predictive ability. Nevertheless, forecasts like these during dynamic non-converging playoff races do help quantify the race if it is understood to be a snapshot in time.
Only preliminary conclusions can be made, since the playoff races are not over yet, and even when they are, a single season is still a pretty small data set. But this playoff forecasting exercise appears to be pointing to a small but significant advantage of DVOA compared to win-only systems in predicting future results.
Posted in Articles, Weeky Predictions | No Comments »