2007 Playoff predictions after week 5

October 9th, 2007

That Monday Night Game was a real treat. Here are this week’s predictions:

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 54.02 33.04 12.94
Buffalo 0.0 33.3 40.88 25.82
Miami 0.0 12.68 26.08 61.24

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 69.66 23.26 5.66 1.42
Baltimore 24.94 48.12 20.4 6.54
Cleveland 3.38 19.64 45.7 31.28
Cincinnati 2.02 8.98 28.24 60.76

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 64.84 23.8 10.52 0.84
Tennessee 21.44 43.78 27.72 7.06
Jacksonville 13.08 27.68 45.64 13.6
Houston 0.64 4.74 16.12 78.5

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 36.66 27.7 20.62 15.02
Denver 22.34 26.26 25.92 25.48
Kansas City 21.5 23.78 26.84 27.88
Oakland 19.5 22.26 26.62 31.62

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 81.58 14.62 3.64 0.16
Washington 11.56 42.78 41.46 4.2
NY Giants 6.68 40.94 46.18 6.2
Philadelphia 0.18 1.66 8.72 89.44

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 71.16 20.6 7.96 0.28
Detroit 17.34 42.0 36.72 3.94
Chicago 11.36 35.16 44.98 8.5
Minnesota 0.14 2.24 10.34 87.28

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 50.74 39.68 7.84 1.74
Tampa Bay 44.84 40.68 11.56 2.92
Atlanta 2.84 11.06 41.08 45.02
New Orleans 1.58 8.58 39.52 50.32

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 61.38 30.58 7.96 0.08
Arizona 32.98 47.86 19.12 0.04
San Francisco 5.64 21.54 71.82 1.0
St Louis 0.0 0.02 1.1 98.88

Generated: Tue Oct 09 00:17:48 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 57.46 28.84 13.02 0.68 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 25.98 25.96 11.8 1.1 18.74 9.76 93.34
Pittsburgh 7.04 18.92 37.62 6.08 5.2 7.58 82.44
Tennessee 4.24 11.7 5.26 0.24 34.92 20.68 77.04
Jacksonville 2.72 6.7 3.42 0.24 23.62 27.24 63.94
Baltimore 2.38 5.76 14.52 2.28 10.04 15.74 50.72
San Diego 0.04 0.74 4.06 31.82 0.46 1.28 38.4
Oakland 0.04 0.36 2.12 16.98 0.38 1.28 21.16
Houston 0.06 0.36 0.2 0.02 3.34 6.18 10.16
Cleveland 0.02 0.24 2.18 0.94 1.84 5.64 10.86
Kansas City 0.02 0.08 1.7 19.7 0.16 0.7 22.36
Denver 0.0 0.18 2.66 19.5 0.32 0.94 23.6
Cincinnati 0.0 0.16 1.44 0.42 0.9 2.56 5.48
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.32 0.38
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.12
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 61.8 14.64 4.46 0.68 12.12 3.72 97.42
Green Bay 13.7 26.26 23.56 7.64 5.12 6.08 82.36
Seattle 7.78 23.24 21.2 9.16 6.68 9.18 77.24
Washington 6.7 3.36 1.24 0.26 30.48 20.18 62.22
Arizona 2.96 11.12 12.14 6.76 6.98 11.42 51.38
NY Giants 3.08 2.28 1.0 0.32 24.42 18.82 49.92
Carolina 1.58 6.46 12.18 30.52 1.72 4.02 56.48
Detroit 0.96 4.26 7.94 4.18 4.26 8.12 29.72
Tampa Bay 0.94 3.82 8.6 31.48 1.36 2.86 49.06
Chicago 0.3 3.18 4.54 3.34 3.64 7.22 22.22
San Francisco 0.18 1.12 2.32 2.02 2.32 5.4 13.36
New Orleans 0.02 0.08 0.28 1.2 0.16 0.6 2.34
Atlanta 0.0 0.08 0.48 2.28 0.1 0.44 3.38
Philadelphia 0.0 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.54 1.64 2.36
Minnesota 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.54
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Oct 09 00:17:48 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 4

October 1st, 2007

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
NY Jets 0.74 46.42 33.28 19.56
Buffalo 0.4 27.24 34.52 37.84
Miami 0.26 25.04 32.1 42.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 61.6 22.28 11.86 4.26
Baltimore 19.12 33.06 26.4 21.42
Cincinnati 14.0 27.66 31.2 27.14
Cleveland 5.28 17.0 30.54 47.18

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 79.38 14.96 4.74 0.92
Jacksonville 10.4 32.44 33.58 23.58
Tennessee 7.26 35.64 32.1 25.0
Houston 2.96 16.96 29.58 50.5

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 46.2 28.96 17.72 7.12
Kansas City 32.8 32.3 21.44 13.46
San Diego 14.58 23.92 34.0 27.5
Oakland 6.42 14.82 26.84 51.92

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 79.8 14.38 4.92 0.9
Washington 10.94 36.46 36.34 16.26
NY Giants 7.94 40.18 35.48 16.4
Philadelphia 1.32 8.98 23.26 66.44

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 68.86 21.9 8.28 0.96
Detroit 21.9 45.84 26.9 5.36
Chicago 8.7 27.56 45.62 18.12
Minnesota 0.54 4.7 19.2 75.56

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 58.32 26.52 12.14 3.02
Carolina 26.6 39.56 23.88 9.96
Atlanta 10.1 19.98 35.84 34.08
New Orleans 4.98 13.94 28.14 52.94

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 67.4 22.52 9.74 0.34
Arizona 18.16 39.4 40.56 1.88
San Francisco 14.4 37.5 46.5 1.6
St Louis 0.04 0.58 3.2 96.18

Generated: Mon Oct 01 22:51:45 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 47.6 29.82 14.2 6.98 0.28 0.38 99.26
Indianapolis 34.52 26.82 13.36 4.68 10.62 4.3 94.3
Pittsburgh 8.02 14.92 21.08 17.58 6.52 6.7 74.82
Jacksonville 2.38 4.44 2.34 1.24 19.94 14.18 44.52
Denver 1.92 6.7 15.8 21.78 4.84 7.44 58.48
Baltimore 1.7 3.88 7.08 6.46 8.28 9.8 37.2
Kansas City 1.24 4.44 9.66 17.46 5.06 6.94 44.8
Tennessee 1.22 2.9 2.04 1.1 19.22 13.56 40.04
Cincinnati 0.36 2.1 5.3 6.24 5.8 8.04 27.84
Houston 0.4 1.1 0.92 0.54 8.1 9.3 20.36
San Diego 0.22 1.78 4.16 8.42 3.18 5.44 23.2
Cleveland 0.22 0.44 1.6 3.02 2.7 4.74 12.72
Oakland 0.12 0.48 2.04 3.78 2.68 4.02 13.12
NY Jets 0.06 0.12 0.28 0.28 1.9 3.1 5.74
Buffalo 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.26 0.3 0.84 1.54
Miami 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.18 0.58 1.22 2.06

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 41.86 20.22 12.26 5.46 7.8 3.76 91.36
Green Bay 20.84 20.9 17.72 9.4 8.28 6.5 83.64
Seattle 15.84 21.76 19.92 9.88 7.86 6.5 81.76
Tampa Bay 5.18 8.94 13.94 30.26 3.44 4.74 66.5
Detroit 3.86 5.62 6.88 5.54 10.2 10.24 42.34
Washington 3.56 3.08 2.68 1.62 12.3 11.52 34.76
Arizona 2.78 5.08 5.58 4.72 11.46 10.66 40.28
San Francisco 2.14 3.7 4.6 3.96 10.16 11.2 35.76
Carolina 1.66 4.84 6.5 13.6 5.72 6.96 39.28
NY Giants 1.14 2.26 2.72 1.82 11.68 11.46 31.08
Chicago 0.62 2.08 3.26 2.74 5.84 7.32 21.86
Atlanta 0.32 0.82 2.36 6.6 1.54 3.18 14.82
Philadelphia 0.12 0.2 0.46 0.54 2.08 2.96 6.36
New Orleans 0.06 0.44 0.86 3.62 1.02 2.02 8.02
Minnesota 0.02 0.06 0.24 0.22 0.62 0.98 2.14
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.04

Generated: Mon Oct 01 22:51:45 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 3

September 24th, 2007

Here are the predictions after week 3.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 95.72 3.94 0.32 0.02
NY Jets 3.18 61.42 25.0 10.4
Miami 0.7 19.0 42.18 38.12
Buffalo 0.4 15.64 32.5 51.46

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 51.3 30.86 15.5 2.34
Baltimore 36.16 40.24 19.24 4.36
Cincinnati 11.64 24.52 47.54 16.3
Cleveland 0.9 4.38 17.72 77.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 74.58 17.9 6.16 1.36
Tennessee 9.58 33.06 31.46 25.9
Jacksonville 11.48 29.36 33.28 25.88
Houston 4.36 19.68 29.1 46.86

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.36 30.76 11.5 3.38
San Diego 32.9 37.72 21.28 8.1
Kansas City 10.34 21.8 40.68 27.18
Oakland 2.4 9.72 26.54 61.34

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 78.08 15.04 5.36 1.52
Washington 12.12 38.4 30.8 18.68
NY Giants 4.76 25.32 31.72 38.2
Philadelphia 5.04 21.24 32.12 41.6

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 62.36 23.72 10.94 2.98
Chicago 20.12 36.24 29.5 14.14
Detroit 15.24 30.78 36.06 17.92
Minnesota 2.28 9.26 23.5 64.96

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 56.78 25.58 13.34 4.3
Tampa Bay 25.44 35.82 25.56 13.18
New Orleans 13.64 25.42 35.14 25.8
Atlanta 4.14 13.18 25.96 56.72

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 47.08 31.94 17.58 3.4
Seattle 38.72 35.44 19.76 6.08
Arizona 12.9 26.12 42.62 18.36
St Louis 1.3 6.5 20.04 72.16

Generated: Tue Sep 25 00:04:17 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 39.16 26.54 18.9 11.12 0.7 0.86 97.28
Indianapolis 27.66 22.84 15.08 9.0 8.1 6.78 89.46
Pittsburgh 11.92 14.66 15.04 9.68 12.38 9.36 73.04
Baltimore 8.64 10.3 10.34 6.88 17.7 12.24 66.1
Denver 4.64 9.26 15.88 24.58 4.78 6.2 65.34
Jacksonville 2.12 3.46 3.56 2.34 13.76 12.76 38.0
San Diego 1.6 4.6 8.18 18.52 4.8 6.88 44.58
Tennessee 1.68 2.68 2.88 2.34 13.62 12.76 35.96
Cincinnati 1.56 2.86 4.1 3.12 8.86 9.96 30.46
Houston 0.6 1.16 1.62 0.98 6.88 9.16 20.4
Kansas City 0.2 0.8 2.34 7.0 1.94 3.26 15.54
NY Jets 0.16 0.44 1.24 1.34 4.26 4.88 12.32
Oakland 0.04 0.12 0.28 1.96 0.62 1.6 4.62
Miami 0.02 0.16 0.12 0.4 0.78 1.38 2.86
Buffalo 0.0 0.08 0.12 0.2 0.24 0.48 1.12
Cleveland 0.0 0.04 0.32 0.54 0.58 1.44 2.92

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 45.24 18.68 10.26 3.9 8.64 4.94 91.66
Green Bay 17.8 19.12 15.96 9.48 8.3 6.54 77.2
Carolina 9.42 13.66 15.22 18.48 4.88 5.28 66.94
San Francisco 7.56 12.4 13.18 13.94 7.04 7.52 61.64
Seattle 5.5 9.38 11.58 12.26 8.2 7.94 54.86
Washington 3.62 4.04 2.92 1.54 16.44 12.92 41.48
Chicago 2.06 5.66 6.64 5.76 7.72 8.76 36.6
Tampa Bay 2.08 4.84 6.5 12.02 5.0 6.2 36.64
Detroit 2.2 3.34 5.3 4.4 6.14 7.44 28.82
Arizona 1.22 3.0 3.82 4.86 4.32 5.12 22.34
Philadelphia 1.14 1.44 1.46 1.0 8.38 8.36 21.78
NY Giants 1.04 1.4 1.3 1.02 8.54 8.48 21.78
New Orleans 0.84 2.16 3.72 6.92 3.38 5.42 22.44
Atlanta 0.12 0.44 1.08 2.5 1.12 1.9 7.16
St Louis 0.1 0.1 0.22 0.88 0.4 0.88 2.58
Minnesota 0.06 0.34 0.84 1.04 1.5 2.3 6.08

Generated: Tue Sep 25 00:04:17 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 2

September 18th, 2007

Here are the predictions after week 2.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 96.74 2.96 0.22 0.08
NY Jets 1.34 42.52 32.58 23.56
Miami 1.42 33.24 34.58 30.76
Buffalo 0.5 21.28 32.62 45.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 44.18 29.06 19.94 6.82
Cincinnati 28.78 31.82 27.86 11.54
Baltimore 24.26 29.68 30.42 15.64
Cleveland 2.78 9.44 21.78 66.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 86.8 10.36 2.4 0.44
Jacksonville 7.92 40.94 30.82 20.32
Tennessee 2.88 28.2 35.8 33.12
Houston 2.4 20.5 30.98 46.12

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 60.46 35.62 3.72 0.2
San Diego 37.8 54.3 7.18 0.72
Kansas City 1.62 8.64 64.46 25.28
Oakland 0.12 1.44 24.64 73.8

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 65.36 26.88 6.52 1.24
Washington 29.48 48.6 16.3 5.62
Philadelphia 3.5 13.74 45.4 37.36
NY Giants 1.66 10.78 31.78 55.78

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 40.74 28.98 20.0 10.28
Green Bay 36.32 31.46 20.88 11.34
Detroit 17.7 27.92 33.64 20.74
Minnesota 5.24 11.64 25.48 57.64

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 72.82 16.8 7.48 2.9
New Orleans 11.06 30.72 30.98 27.24
Tampa Bay 8.84 29.1 32.32 29.74
Atlanta 7.28 23.38 29.22 40.12

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 63.42 23.84 10.42 2.32
Seattle 22.82 36.38 27.5 13.3
Arizona 10.9 27.64 37.42 24.04
St Louis 2.86 12.14 24.66 60.34

Generated: Mon Sep 17 23:51:00 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 36.22 24.64 18.98 16.9 0.6 0.56 97.9
Indianapolis 26.88 21.4 20.64 17.88 3.06 3.02 92.88
Denver 16.32 18.26 15.62 10.26 17.72 8.48 86.66
San Diego 6.46 10.7 10.58 10.06 20.28 12.66 70.74
Pittsburgh 5.86 10.5 12.6 15.22 11.38 11.74 67.3
Cincinnati 3.6 6.24 8.88 10.06 12.38 14.48 55.64
Baltimore 3.32 5.02 7.38 8.54 10.88 13.92 49.06
Jacksonville 0.74 1.66 2.2 3.32 8.28 9.66 25.86
Tennessee 0.14 0.42 0.96 1.36 4.5 5.92 13.3
Cleveland 0.14 0.24 0.66 1.74 2.28 4.58 9.64
Miami 0.1 0.24 0.26 0.82 1.58 2.9 5.9
Houston 0.08 0.32 0.58 1.42 2.98 4.84 10.22
NY Jets 0.08 0.22 0.2 0.84 1.88 3.14 6.36
Kansas City 0.04 0.14 0.38 1.06 1.66 2.62 5.9
Buffalo 0.02 0.0 0.06 0.42 0.46 1.06 2.02
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.08 0.42 0.62

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 29.1 17.4 12.02 6.84 12.34 6.92 84.62
Carolina 21.38 18.5 17.8 15.14 3.74 4.06 80.62
San Francisco 10.42 14.7 16.32 21.98 3.94 4.96 72.32
Chicago 10.36 11.54 11.32 7.52 10.34 9.3 60.38
Washington 9.46 9.02 6.26 4.74 19.1 12.78 61.36
Green Bay 8.66 10.24 9.98 7.44 12.76 10.82 59.9
Detroit 3.54 4.52 4.98 4.66 8.08 9.62 35.4
Seattle 2.3 4.44 6.48 9.6 5.26 7.0 35.08
Arizona 1.08 1.6 2.82 5.4 3.44 4.62 18.96
New Orleans 0.96 2.42 3.36 4.32 4.4 6.42 21.88
Tampa Bay 0.78 1.64 2.62 3.8 3.54 5.4 17.78
Minnesota 0.8 1.14 1.72 1.58 3.24 4.28 12.76
Philadelphia 0.54 1.04 0.82 1.1 3.94 5.74 13.18
Atlanta 0.44 1.32 2.34 3.18 2.34 3.42 13.04
St Louis 0.1 0.18 0.56 2.02 0.96 1.16 4.98
NY Giants 0.08 0.3 0.6 0.68 2.58 3.5 7.74

Generated: Mon Sep 17 23:51:00 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 1

September 11th, 2007

Here are the predictions following the week 1 games.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 90.98 7.18 1.7 0.14
NY Jets 3.74 40.58 34.16 21.52
Miami 3.74 35.54 35.36 25.36
Buffalo 1.54 16.7 28.78 52.98

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 45.22 31.5 20.38 2.9
Pittsburgh 32.48 34.68 29.16 3.68
Baltimore 21.52 30.82 38.22 9.44
Cleveland 0.78 3.0 12.24 83.98

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 75.86 16.96 5.66 1.52
Tennessee 10.36 34.46 31.9 23.28
Jacksonville 8.88 29.08 33.4 28.64
Houston 4.9 19.5 29.04 46.56

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 57.84 33.72 7.62 0.82
Denver 36.94 47.54 13.98 1.54
Kansas City 4.76 16.5 60.32 18.42
Oakland 0.46 2.24 18.08 79.22

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 53.36 24.48 14.88 7.28
Philadelphia 18.54 27.02 28.66 25.78
Washington 17.82 26.46 27.22 28.5
NY Giants 10.28 22.04 29.24 38.44

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 53.58 26.62 13.62 6.18
Green Bay 23.56 31.02 25.48 19.94
Minnesota 12.32 22.48 30.34 34.86
Detroit 10.54 19.88 30.56 39.02

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 41.72 31.08 19.04 8.16
New Orleans 36.56 32.94 21.48 9.02
Atlanta 17.4 24.62 34.78 23.2
Tampa Bay 4.32 11.36 24.7 59.62

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 48.14 28.38 15.4 8.08
San Francisco 33.2 31.92 23.5 11.38
Arizona 9.08 19.66 31.5 39.76
St Louis 9.58 20.04 29.6 40.78

Generated: Tue Sep 11 01:12:09 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 28.3 21.36 20.06 21.26 1.28 1.72 93.98
Indianapolis 19.9 18.34 18.52 19.1 4.18 4.34 84.38
San Diego 17.9 17.0 12.64 10.3 14.12 8.42 80.38
Cincinnati 10.74 12.7 12.02 9.76 12.44 11.04 68.7
Denver 10.98 10.42 8.72 6.82 21.34 12.34 70.62
Pittsburgh 5.94 8.3 9.84 8.4 12.02 12.62 57.12
Baltimore 3.22 5.4 6.68 6.22 11.04 12.42 44.98
Tennessee 0.8 1.88 3.12 4.56 4.9 7.06 22.32
Jacksonville 0.66 1.32 2.86 4.04 4.38 6.92 20.18
Kansas City 0.44 0.94 1.5 1.88 4.1 5.9 14.76
Miami 0.44 0.52 0.92 1.86 2.86 4.44 11.04
Houston 0.3 0.84 1.4 2.36 2.52 3.84 11.26
NY Jets 0.3 0.7 1.08 1.66 3.62 5.8 13.16
Buffalo 0.04 0.12 0.34 1.04 0.48 1.2 3.22
Cleveland 0.04 0.08 0.2 0.46 0.38 1.1 2.26
Oakland 0.0 0.08 0.1 0.28 0.34 0.84 1.64

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 23.24 14.7 9.72 5.7 11.62 7.32 72.3
Chicago 16.02 14.08 13.28 10.2 6.46 6.52 66.56
Carolina 12.7 12.0 10.54 6.48 9.36 7.9 58.98
New Orleans 9.84 9.3 9.92 7.5 9.3 8.36 54.22
Seattle 7.86 10.86 11.82 17.6 3.84 5.2 57.18
Philadelphia 5.7 5.06 4.58 3.2 10.2 9.78 38.52
Washington 5.06 5.44 4.18 3.14 10.6 9.22 37.64
Green Bay 4.78 5.68 6.88 6.22 7.18 7.36 38.1
San Francisco 4.42 6.56 8.3 13.92 4.22 5.56 42.98
Atlanta 3.02 4.3 5.16 4.92 5.26 6.3 28.96
NY Giants 2.56 3.2 2.5 2.02 9.38 8.38 28.04
Minnesota 1.64 2.86 4.0 3.82 4.54 5.76 22.62
Detroit 1.34 2.62 2.8 3.78 3.62 4.48 18.64
Arizona 0.72 1.38 2.68 4.3 1.78 2.86 13.72
St Louis 0.56 1.24 2.58 5.2 1.22 2.26 13.06
Tampa Bay 0.54 0.72 1.06 2.0 1.42 2.74 8.48

Generated: Tue Sep 11 01:12:09 EDT 2007

2007 Preseason Playoff Predictions

September 8th, 2007

Here are the 2oo7 Preseason Playoff predictions. The interactive software is available at www.nfl-forecast.com. So far the software and algorithms are pretty much the same as last year. However, I’m hoping to implement an improved prediction algorithm in the near future.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 80.16 14.94 4.12 0.78
NY Jets 11.28 40.48 30.9 17.34
Miami 6.1 29.08 35.52 29.3
Buffalo 2.46 15.5 29.46 52.58

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 38.96 30.58 23.16 7.3
Cincinnati 34.02 31.3 26.36 8.32
Pittsburgh 24.86 31.08 31.54 12.52
Cleveland 2.16 7.04 18.94 71.86

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 65.6 25.9 6.9 1.6
Jacksonville 26.94 47.34 18.82 6.9
Tennessee 5.54 17.46 45.28 31.72
Houston 1.92 9.3 29.0 59.78

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 54.36 31.82 11.78 2.04
Denver 36.14 41.56 18.84 3.46
Kansas City 8.96 21.9 49.3 19.84
Oakland 0.54 4.72 20.08 74.66

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 35.3 29.7 22.62 12.38
Dallas 36.92 29.76 20.62 12.7
NY Giants 18.54 24.4 29.2 27.86
Washington 9.24 16.14 27.56 47.06

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 74.96 17.32 6.1 1.62
Green Bay 13.5 37.46 29.52 19.52
Minnesota 7.36 26.52 33.3 32.82
Detroit 4.18 18.7 31.08 46.04

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 38.86 28.48 20.58 12.08
Carolina 32.58 29.16 23.06 15.2
Atlanta 19.84 24.72 30.28 25.16
Tampa Bay 8.72 17.64 26.08 47.56

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 40.56 27.6 18.98 12.86
San Francisco 23.4 24.84 26.14 25.62
St Louis 19.9 26.06 27.1 26.94
Arizona 16.14 21.5 27.78 34.58

Generated: Sat Sep 08 12:45:13 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 26.12 20.46 17.52 16.06 3.48 3.56 87.2
Indianapolis 18.46 16.24 15.34 15.56 6.68 6.76 79.04
San Diego 18.2 14.66 12.24 9.26 13.34 8.8 76.5
Denver 10.22 9.82 9.12 6.98 16.72 11.14 64.0
Baltimore 7.74 10.34 10.6 10.28 8.6 9.38 56.94
Cincinnati 6.86 8.16 9.38 9.62 9.0 10.0 53.02
Jacksonville 4.64 6.68 7.2 8.42 10.9 9.52 47.36
Pittsburgh 3.68 5.94 7.44 7.8 8.2 9.12 42.18
Kansas City 1.48 2.08 2.68 2.72 6.28 7.88 23.12
NY Jets 1.34 2.34 3.0 4.6 6.38 7.14 24.8
Miami 0.72 1.24 1.84 2.3 3.7 5.34 15.14
Tennessee 0.3 1.08 1.54 2.62 2.42 4.04 12.0
Buffalo 0.16 0.26 0.7 1.34 1.64 2.42 6.52
Cleveland 0.04 0.4 0.54 1.18 1.12 2.1 5.38
Houston 0.02 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.84 1.6 4.36
Oakland 0.02 0.1 0.26 0.16 0.7 1.2 2.44

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 23.54 18.8 16.88 15.74 3.52 3.34 81.82
Dallas 13.72 10.04 8.12 5.04 12.3 9.78 59.0
Philadelphia 12.18 9.78 8.02 5.32 12.16 9.62 57.08
New Orleans 10.86 10.94 9.84 7.22 9.16 8.1 56.12
Carolina 8.96 10.08 7.44 6.1 9.62 8.64 50.84
Seattle 7.32 8.9 10.66 13.68 4.66 5.92 51.14
NY Giants 4.84 5.56 4.62 3.52 9.46 9.24 37.24
Atlanta 4.4 5.14 5.46 4.84 7.42 7.74 35.0
San Francisco 2.8 5.16 6.5 8.94 3.86 4.72 31.98
Washington 2.4 2.3 2.38 2.16 5.88 6.6 21.72
St Louis 2.0 4.0 5.68 8.22 4.78 5.14 29.82
Green Bay 2.1 2.7 3.96 4.74 5.36 5.7 24.56
Arizona 2.04 2.9 4.6 6.6 2.74 4.42 23.3
Tampa Bay 1.76 2.04 2.52 2.4 3.94 5.32 17.98
Minnesota 0.7 1.08 2.24 3.34 3.34 3.4 14.1
Detroit 0.38 0.58 1.08 2.14 1.8 2.32 8.3

Generated: Sat Sep 08 12:45:13 EDT 2007

Playoff predictions 2006, after week 16

December 26th, 2006

Here they are.

Once the playoff teams are finalized, I’ll do a year in reveiw post and a preview of improvements on slate for next season.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 69.68 30.32 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 30.32 69.68 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 85.48 14.52 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 14.52 85.48 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 71.68 28.32 0.0 0.0
Dallas 28.32 71.68 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 75.08 24.92 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 24.92 75.08 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 83.9 16.1 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 16.1 75.4 8.5
Arizona 0.0 0.0 8.5 91.5

Generated: Tue Dec 26 00:38:01 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
San Diego 91.28 8.72 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 8.72 71.08 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.0 20.2 64.86 14.94 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 0.0 14.94 85.06 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.84 10.64 85.48
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.84 61.22 84.06
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.32 21.02 23.34
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.86 2.86
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.96 1.96
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 71.68 0.0 28.32 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 0.0 28.32 0.0 71.68 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.64 68.64
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.58 10.58
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 8.3
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.64 7.64
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.84 4.84
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 26 00:38:01 EST 2006

 

Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 15

December 19th, 2006

The end is near, the end is near!

 I’ll post the DVOA comparison graph tomorrow. Should be interesting.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 92.02 7.98 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 7.98 84.46 7.56 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 7.56 89.04 3.4
Miami 0.0 0.0 3.4 96.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 92.36 7.64 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 7.64 92.36 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 70.44 29.56 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 29.56 70.44 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 77.14 22.86 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 22.86 77.14 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 69.84 27.96 2.2 0.0
Philadelphia 30.16 50.56 19.28 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 21.48 78.52 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 53.86 46.14 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 46.14 53.86 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 69.56 30.44 0.0
Carolina 0.0 30.44 69.56 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 96.28 3.72 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 3.72 67.54 26.64 2.1
St Louis 0.0 27.66 70.94 1.4
Arizona 0.0 1.08 2.42 96.5

Generated: Tue Dec 19 00:30:23 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
San Diego 86.86 11.64 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 11.06 16.2 69.28 3.46 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 2.08 72.0 23.42 2.5 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 0.16 5.8 86.06 2.26 3.0 97.28
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.98 11.72 34.06 53.76
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.76 12.8 55.56
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.78 21.24 57.02
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.74 20.88 27.62
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.52 3.1 3.62
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.18 1.98 2.16
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 1.14 1.18
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 66.26 31.1 2.64 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 30.2 37.0 2.64 27.96 2.2 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 3.22 26.24 0.7 36.7 22.6 89.46
Seattle 0.0 0.32 5.66 90.3 0.0 0.46 96.74
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.72 0.0 1.42 5.14
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.66 36.5 54.16
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.76 12.64 28.4
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.92 20.2 22.12
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.68 1.68
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 19 00:30:23 EST 2006

NFL Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 14

December 12th, 2006

Here are this week’s forecasts.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 93.2 6.8 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 6.8 64.62 26.8 1.78
Buffalo 0.0 19.52 48.86 31.62
Miami 0.0 9.06 24.34 66.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 95.42 4.58 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 4.58 92.72 2.7 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 2.7 96.2 1.1
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 1.1 98.9

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 97.98 2.02 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 2.02 85.28 12.7 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 12.7 86.28 1.02
Houston 0.0 0.0 1.02 98.98

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 54.98 45.02 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 45.02 54.98 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 66.36 24.66 8.98 0.0
NY Giants 18.24 49.44 32.32 0.0
Philadelphia 15.4 25.9 58.7 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 69.32 30.68 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 30.68 69.32 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 98.22 1.78 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.36 63.54 36.1 0.0
Carolina 1.42 34.68 63.9 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 98.34 1.66 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 35.26 50.5 14.24
San Francisco 1.66 52.84 25.4 20.1
Arizona 0.0 10.24 24.1 65.66

Generated: Tue Dec 12 00:17:35 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
San Diego 76.02 19.58 4.26 0.14 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 16.4 26.06 47.96 5.0 3.28 1.22 99.92
Indianapolis 7.58 50.78 32.28 7.34 1.02 0.8 99.8
New England 0.0 2.12 12.84 78.24 1.12 1.78 96.1
Cincinnati 0.0 1.18 1.24 2.16 38.28 24.26 67.12
Jacksonville 0.0 0.28 1.42 0.32 20.8 28.84 51.66
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 2.82 10.9 20.52
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.3 16.42 43.72
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.56 10.38 14.94
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.62 2.76 3.38
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 1.32 1.46
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.72 0.76
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.6 0.62
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 97.94 2.06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 2.06 77.36 15.26 3.54 0.46 0.94 99.62
Dallas 0.0 10.56 41.66 14.14 16.34 10.28 92.98
Seattle 0.0 3.82 27.36 67.16 0.0 0.04 98.38
NY Giants 0.0 5.54 4.58 8.12 35.44 19.32 73.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.48 10.86 4.06 20.5 25.42 61.32
Atlanta 0.0 0.18 0.12 0.06 17.96 17.24 35.56
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.16 1.26 1.2 5.6 8.22
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.66 0.0 0.12 1.78
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.08 20.56 28.64
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.36 0.38
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.12
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 12 00:17:35 EST 2006

Graphical Comparison of DVOA and NFL-Forecast after Week 13, 2006

December 5th, 2006

I’ve prepared the comparison between playoff predictions based on DVOA power ratings and NFL-Forecast playoff predictions in graphical time-series form , from week 9 through week 13. The filled circles represent DVOA predictions while the open circles represent my predictions. Hopefully the team-based color coding that I used is self explanatory. I’ll include the Week 13 DVOA ratings as soon as Mike Harris posts them.

The first set of graphs shows the division races (I’ve shown only teams that have had a significant chance since week 9). All 8 division races appear to be converging to selecting a champion, using both the DVOA and NFL-Forecast projections. DVOA ratings did significantly better in predicting the AFC West race, recognizing the superiority of the Chargers compared to the Broncos. In the NFC East race, my software had greater misplaced confidence in the Giants than DVOA, but transferred this misplaced confidence to the Eagles. Neither system really picked out the Cowboys as the division winner significantly better that the other. In the rest of the races, the predictions were comparable, with DVOA converging to apparent division winners slightly faster than NFL-forecast, with the exception of the NFC West race. My system still holds a bit of hope for the Jets, to eek out the AFC East title, while the DVOA has declared the race all but over. In contrast, the Wild Card races are not converging, with only 4 weeks remaining in the season.

The Wild Card race this year appears to be a white noise process, with team’s fortunes rising and falling on a weekly basis. The early front runners as predicted by both systems, the Broncos and Giants, have lost much of their lead. It will be interesting to see if either system outperforms the other in the WC race, but the lack of convergence would seem to indicate that any better performance of one system over the other would be attributable to luck rather than reproducible predictive ability. Nevertheless, forecasts like these during dynamic non-converging playoff races do help quantify the race if it is understood to be a snapshot in time.

Only preliminary conclusions can be made, since the playoff races are not over yet, and even when they are, a single season is still a pretty small data set. But this playoff forecasting exercise appears to be pointing to a small but significant advantage of DVOA compared to win-only systems in predicting future results.