2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 6

October 18th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 68.176 25.366 6.332 0.126
Buffalo 22.938 45.038 29.898 2.126
NY Jets 8.818 28.768 57.668 4.746
Miami 0.068 0.828 6.102 93.002

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 64.288 27.36 7.496 0.856
Pittsburgh 28.486 50.124 18.666 2.724
Cincinnati 6.808 20.11 60.41 12.672
Cleveland 0.418 2.406 13.428 83.748

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 52.312 40.978 6.404 0.306
Tennessee 45.67 47.324 6.468 0.538
Jacksonville 1.95 10.536 67.574 19.94
Indianapolis 0.068 1.162 19.554 79.216

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 53.532 36.814 8.164 1.49
Oakland 42.322 43.276 11.724 2.678
Denver 1.84 9.88 42.932 45.348
Kansas City 2.306 10.03 37.18 50.484

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 44.53 26.414 18.258 10.798
NY Giants 26.934 30.094 26.826 16.146
Washington 20.304 27.536 28.35 23.81
Philadelphia 8.232 15.956 26.566 49.246

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 71.188 26.568 2.168 0.076
Detroit 27.92 62.774 8.966 0.34
Chicago 0.868 10.236 78.692 10.204
Minnesota 0.024 0.422 10.174 89.38

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 83.728 12.59 3.11 0.572
Tampa Bay 9.472 47.374 28.362 14.792
Atlanta 5.584 26.262 42.152 26.002
Carolina 1.216 13.774 26.376 58.634

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.578 6.978 1.238 0.206
Seattle 3.974 43.018 32.79 20.218
St Louis 2.078 26.526 31.686 39.71
Arizona 2.37 23.478 34.286 39.866

Generated: Tue Oct 18 23:10:07 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 35.614 17.354 8.062 3.258 17.828 7.966 90.082
New England 23.042 23.868 14.222 7.044 7.954 9.098 85.228
Pittsburgh 14.636 7.706 4.244 1.9 31.316 14.692 74.494
San Diego 6.544 10.596 15.936 20.456 3.626 5.912 63.07
Tennessee 5.51 10.02 14.164 15.976 4.838 8.564 59.072
Oakland 4.292 8.608 14.85 14.572 5.558 8.962 56.842
Buffalo 4.358 7.528 6.444 4.608 10.064 13.784 46.786
Houston 3.276 9.178 15.904 23.954 3.346 6.352 62.01
Cincinnati 2.004 2.178 1.664 0.962 9.774 12.102 28.684
NY Jets 0.61 2.466 3.044 2.698 4.234 8.584 21.636
Kansas City 0.034 0.208 0.506 1.558 0.466 1.032 3.804
Cleveland 0.042 0.088 0.138 0.15 0.462 1.092 1.972
Denver 0.03 0.142 0.46 1.208 0.446 1.374 3.66
Jacksonville 0.0080 0.056 0.354 1.532 0.076 0.418 2.444
Miami 0.0 0.0040 0.0080 0.056 0.012 0.062 0.142
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.068 0.0 0.0060 0.074

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 56.274 11.126 3.064 0.724 22.574 3.888 97.65
Detroit 16.616 7.348 2.998 0.958 47.866 11.99 87.776
San Francisco 10.514 23.06 26.872 31.132 0.368 0.95 92.896
New Orleans 8.022 23.252 26.41 26.044 1.466 2.882 88.076
Dallas 3.658 16.414 15.426 9.032 4.046 15.28 63.856
NY Giants 2.718 7.94 9.144 7.132 6.564 15.092 48.59
Washington 1.612 7.308 7.064 4.32 6.06 14.92 41.284
Tampa Bay 0.178 1.116 2.576 5.602 1.56 6.374 17.406
Chicago 0.226 0.268 0.252 0.122 5.712 12.894 19.474
Philadelphia 0.094 1.196 2.886 4.056 1.786 8.106 18.124
Atlanta 0.06 0.574 1.728 3.222 1.158 3.658 10.4
Seattle 0.022 0.298 0.796 2.858 0.428 2.044 6.446
Arizona 0.0 0.046 0.31 2.014 0.062 0.362 2.794
St Louis 0.0020 0.024 0.274 1.778 0.042 0.29 2.41
Carolina 0.0 0.026 0.196 0.994 0.168 0.746 2.13
Minnesota 0.0040 0.0040 0.0040 0.012 0.14 0.524 0.688

Generated: Tue Oct 18 23:10:07 EDT 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 5

October 13th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 54.072 35.19 10.25 0.488
Buffalo 36.736 40.428 20.756 2.08
NY Jets 8.898 22.46 57.228 11.414
Miami 0.294 1.922 11.766 86.018

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 41.136 37.34 17.102 4.422
Baltimore 44.812 33.838 16.72 4.63
Cincinnati 12.172 23.082 46.924 17.822
Cleveland 1.88 5.74 19.254 73.126

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 64.264 30.53 4.948 0.258
Tennessee 33.144 55.536 10.254 1.066
Jacksonville 2.474 12.098 65.204 20.224
Indianapolis 0.118 1.836 19.594 78.452

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 60.188 31.714 6.94 1.158
Oakland 35.218 46.078 14.778 3.926
Kansas City 2.94 13.206 41.008 42.846
Denver 1.654 9.002 37.274 52.07

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 60.804 25.628 10.56 3.008
Washington 26.348 41.504 22.858 9.29
NY Giants 10.272 24.424 44.93 20.374
Philadelphia 2.576 8.444 21.652 67.328

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 58.35 39.686 1.806 0.158
Detroit 41.288 55.442 3.05 0.22
Chicago 0.262 3.398 61.262 35.078
Minnesota 0.1 1.474 33.882 64.544

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 96.356 3.186 0.402 0.056
Carolina 1.566 45.968 32.076 20.39
Tampa Bay 1.652 36.432 39.086 22.83
Atlanta 0.426 14.414 28.436 56.724

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 88.186 9.254 2.124 0.436
Seattle 5.558 43.282 32.5 18.66
Arizona 4.29 28.886 37.068 29.756
St Louis 1.966 18.578 28.308 51.148

Generated: Tue Oct 11 18:10:29 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 19.422 15.642 11.874 7.134 13.718 10.41 78.2
Baltimore 15.984 12.268 9.862 6.698 13.858 11.4 70.07
Houston 15.412 16.372 16.102 16.378 6.05 6.516 76.83
Pittsburgh 14.5 11.37 9.276 5.99 18.318 11.816 71.27
San Diego 10.318 12.402 15.252 22.216 3.874 5.204 69.266
Buffalo 9.992 10.276 9.08 7.388 12.494 11.336 60.566
Tennessee 6.216 8.53 9.506 8.892 10.9 11.464 55.508
Oakland 4.076 6.796 10.358 13.988 5.864 8.628 49.71
Cincinnati 2.71 3.262 3.53 2.67 8.114 9.974 30.26
NY Jets 0.942 2.06 2.846 3.05 3.86 6.84 19.598
Cleveland 0.188 0.382 0.604 0.706 1.164 2.322 5.366
Jacksonville 0.106 0.242 0.608 1.518 0.53 1.31 4.314
Kansas City 0.094 0.256 0.66 1.93 0.716 1.416 5.072
Denver 0.04 0.128 0.364 1.122 0.466 1.148 3.268
Miami 0.0 0.01 0.056 0.228 0.058 0.168 0.52
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0040 0.022 0.092 0.016 0.048 0.182

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 37.972 13.63 5.39 1.358 31.134 7.0 96.484
New Orleans 24.136 32.92 26.348 12.952 0.282 0.812 97.45
Detroit 23.39 12.146 4.414 1.338 44.622 8.826 94.736
Dallas 6.588 19.394 25.156 9.666 5.128 16.72 82.652
San Francisco 4.432 10.578 20.564 52.612 0.154 0.962 89.302
Washington 2.76 8.31 10.378 4.9 9.374 24.582 60.304
NY Giants 0.618 2.196 4.368 3.09 4.466 15.26 29.998
Tampa Bay 0.032 0.194 0.48 0.946 0.574 3.446 5.672
Philadelphia 0.01 0.222 0.896 1.448 0.542 5.05 8.168
Chicago 0.028 0.066 0.118 0.05 1.578 6.324 8.164
Carolina 0.014 0.144 0.564 0.844 0.99 4.26 6.816
Seattle 0.012 0.09 0.682 4.774 0.296 2.404 8.258
Atlanta 0.0040 0.044 0.146 0.232 0.192 1.086 1.704
Arizona 0.0 0.026 0.332 3.932 0.066 0.676 5.032
Minnesota 0.0040 0.028 0.042 0.026 0.58 2.41 3.09
St Louis 0.0 0.012 0.122 1.832 0.022 0.182 2.17

Generated: Tue Oct 11 18:10:29 EDT 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 4

October 4th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 48.962 32.318 17.76 0.96
Buffalo 30.766 36.566 29.38 3.288
NY Jets 19.996 29.568 44.116 6.32
Miami 0.276 1.548 8.744 89.432

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 61.188 24.962 10.444 3.406
Pittsburgh 21.718 38.122 26.772 13.388
Cincinnati 13.826 26.734 38.172 21.268
Cleveland 3.268 10.182 24.612 61.938

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 54.498 39.244 5.786 0.472
Tennessee 43.43 48.288 7.228 1.054
Jacksonville 1.8 9.62 58.936 29.644
Indianapolis 0.272 2.848 28.05 68.83

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 50.012 33.246 13.14 3.602
San Diego 38.942 36.962 19.254 4.842
Denver 8.99 22.22 42.852 25.938
Kansas City 2.056 7.572 24.754 65.618

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 48.21 29.35 18.234 4.206
Washington 29.126 35.438 27.352 8.084
NY Giants 21.046 30.052 39.65 9.252
Philadelphia 1.618 5.16 14.764 78.458

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 55.412 40.94 3.5 0.148
Detroit 43.288 49.936 6.624 0.152
Chicago 1.278 8.674 75.742 14.306
Minnesota 0.022 0.45 14.134 85.394

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.19 8.14 1.426 0.244
Tampa Bay 6.118 48.564 31.476 13.842
Carolina 2.812 30.112 37.416 29.66
Atlanta 0.88 13.184 29.682 56.254

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 72.758 20.818 5.196 1.228
Arizona 20.94 46.7 22.594 9.766
Seattle 3.364 17.956 39.912 38.768
St Louis 2.938 14.526 32.298 50.238

Generated: Tue Oct 04 17:20:56 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 23.164 15.398 10.53 5.406 16.162 9.664 80.324
Baltimore 19.678 17.674 15.302 8.534 8.194 8.228 77.61
Tennessee 18.3 12.218 8.834 4.078 19.666 11.71 74.806
New England 15.216 15.81 12.676 5.26 11.768 10.73 71.46
Buffalo 6.928 9.312 9.146 5.38 10.398 11.568 52.732
Pittsburgh 4.616 6.382 6.492 4.228 11.75 11.752 45.22
Oakland 3.378 6.898 12.176 27.56 2.148 4.148 56.308
San Diego 3.024 5.496 9.538 20.884 2.522 4.376 45.84
NY Jets 2.472 5.12 6.726 5.678 6.132 9.696 35.824
Cincinnati 2.532 3.734 4.342 3.218 6.864 8.806 29.496
Cleveland 0.278 0.658 1.122 1.21 1.55 3.166 7.984
Denver 0.214 0.808 2.08 5.888 1.04 2.536 12.566
Jacksonville 0.174 0.39 0.596 0.64 1.422 2.624 5.846
Kansas City 0.014 0.06 0.27 1.712 0.134 0.4 2.59
Indianapolis 0.01 0.034 0.072 0.156 0.212 0.42 0.904
Miami 0.0020 0.0080 0.098 0.168 0.038 0.176 0.49

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 34.972 13.414 6.028 0.998 26.78 9.592 91.784
Detroit 25.778 11.654 4.912 0.944 36.572 10.434 90.294
New Orleans 21.352 29.864 29.736 9.238 0.996 1.89 93.076
Dallas 6.832 18.682 18.764 3.932 7.584 16.928 72.722
Washington 5.138 11.408 10.24 2.34 11.172 20.084 60.382
NY Giants 3.452 6.882 8.262 2.45 9.364 18.256 48.666
San Francisco 1.822 5.268 13.624 52.044 0.24 0.98 73.978
Tampa Bay 0.278 1.264 2.816 1.76 1.958 6.192 14.268
Chicago 0.224 0.404 0.472 0.178 3.46 7.324 12.062
Arizona 0.044 0.5 2.33 18.066 0.232 1.348 22.52
Carolina 0.044 0.324 1.294 1.15 0.61 2.244 5.666
Philadelphia 0.034 0.238 0.748 0.598 0.552 2.868 5.038
Atlanta 0.024 0.07 0.444 0.342 0.37 1.186 2.436
Seattle 0.0040 0.016 0.16 3.184 0.018 0.254 3.636
St Louis 0.0020 0.012 0.16 2.764 0.0080 0.07 3.016
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.012 0.084 0.35 0.456

Generated: Tue Oct 04 17:20:56 EDT 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 3

September 29th, 2011

The site is up and running for 2011. Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 31.472 33.756 30.754 4.018
Buffalo 35.894 32.714 26.522 4.87
NY Jets 31.916 30.434 31.442 6.208
Miami 0.718 3.096 11.282 84.904

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 71.536 21.458 5.444 1.562
Pittsburgh 20.872 48.964 20.742 9.422
Cincinnati 3.97 15.366 37.874 42.79
Cleveland 3.622 14.212 35.94 46.226

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 51.426 36.22 10.698 1.656
Tennessee 42.792 42.026 12.43 2.752
Jacksonville 4.854 16.078 50.65 28.418
Indianapolis 0.928 5.676 26.222 67.174

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 73.668 19.95 5.356 1.026
San Diego 18.09 43.73 29.23 8.95
Denver 6.818 28.326 41.278 23.578
Kansas City 1.424 7.994 24.136 66.446

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 55.724 26.716 13.304 4.256
Washington 27.53 38.56 23.726 10.184
NY Giants 13.452 25.692 41.004 19.852
Philadelphia 3.294 9.032 21.966 65.708

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 57.436 36.93 5.034 0.6
Detroit 40.314 49.508 9.184 0.994
Chicago 1.912 10.772 59.156 28.16
Minnesota 0.338 2.79 26.626 70.246

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 87.8 9.884 1.954 0.362
Tampa Bay 7.22 46.23 32.98 13.57
Carolina 4.084 32.364 38.14 25.412
Atlanta 0.896 11.522 26.926 60.656

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 42.298 29.448 18.892 9.362
Arizona 34.124 30.386 22.01 13.48
St Louis 16.412 23.844 29.734 30.01
Seattle 7.166 16.322 29.364 47.148

Generated: Wed Sep 28 23:59:03 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 25.816 19.912 16.178 9.63 7.43 5.738 84.704
Houston 14.34 13.724 14.412 8.95 10.25 9.436 71.112
Buffalo 12.838 11.252 8.096 3.708 15.318 12.908 64.12
Tennessee 11.71 11.92 11.686 7.476 11.978 10.512 65.282
New England 9.794 9.948 7.502 4.228 14.864 13.862 60.198
Oakland 9.074 12.536 18.304 33.754 1.384 2.522 77.574
NY Jets 8.37 9.69 8.316 5.54 12.65 13.204 57.77
Pittsburgh 5.916 5.886 5.532 3.538 15.77 12.57 49.212
San Diego 0.748 1.758 3.764 11.82 1.676 3.144 22.91
Cleveland 0.45 0.872 1.234 1.066 2.78 4.484 10.886
Cincinnati 0.446 0.884 1.288 1.352 2.592 4.212 10.774
Jacksonville 0.292 0.88 1.608 2.074 1.716 3.414 9.984
Denver 0.152 0.526 1.332 4.808 0.92 2.088 9.826
Miami 0.026 0.106 0.312 0.274 0.318 0.972 2.008
Indianapolis 0.024 0.074 0.268 0.562 0.266 0.678 1.872
Kansas City 0.0040 0.032 0.168 1.22 0.088 0.256 1.768

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 30.41 17.452 8.528 1.046 20.75 10.26 88.446
New Orleans 20.834 26.882 33.118 6.966 1.342 2.31 91.452
Dallas 19.15 20.374 14.15 2.05 13.142 12.546 81.412
Detroit 17.524 13.014 8.564 1.212 26.28 14.088 80.682
Washington 7.226 10.664 8.432 1.208 17.158 18.298 62.986
NY Giants 2.894 4.572 4.952 1.034 10.342 15.312 39.106
San Francisco 0.46 1.57 5.686 34.582 0.272 1.026 43.596
Tampa Bay 0.474 1.466 3.644 1.636 2.55 6.012 15.782
Arizona 0.292 1.374 5.314 27.144 0.302 1.336 35.762
Philadelphia 0.252 0.992 1.694 0.356 2.384 5.778 11.456
Chicago 0.242 0.55 0.94 0.18 3.252 6.592 11.756
Carolina 0.122 0.498 2.13 1.334 1.142 2.976 8.202
St Louis 0.066 0.286 1.64 14.42 0.094 0.518 17.024
Minnesota 0.042 0.094 0.148 0.054 0.58 1.504 2.422
Seattle 0.0020 0.13 0.548 6.486 0.092 0.454 7.712
Atlanta 0.01 0.082 0.512 0.292 0.318 0.99 2.204

Generated: Wed Sep 28 23:59:03 EDT 2011

2010 NFC Wildcard Round Match Up Probabilities

December 29th, 2010

After the Viking’s upset of the Eagles, the NFC Wildcard Round had cleared up considerably. The Eagles are locked in as the third seed and will host one of the follwing teams with the indicated probabilities:

Green Bay 78.5%

Giants 19%

Tampa 2.5%

In the other game, the winner of the St. Louis - Seattle game will host either New Orleans or Atlanta. The odds of those match ups are:

Seattle - New Orleans 56%

Seattle - Atlanta 10%

St. Louis - New Orleans 29%

St. Louis - Atlanta 5%

2010 AFC Wildcard Round Match Up Probabilities

December 28th, 2010

It is now possible to project the various match ups for the Wild Card round in the AFC, using my software and the Team Efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats. Here are the projections in the AFC, with the home teams listed in the first column and their probability of facing various opponents listed in each row. The most likely match ups are NY Jets @ Kansas City and Baltimore @ Indianapolis, but there are still many other match ups in play. I’ll break down the NFC match ups after the Tuesday Night Football game.

Team NY Jets Pittsburgh Baltimore Total
Kansas City 71 17 12 100
Indianapolis 27 10 54 91
Jacksonville 2 1 7 9
Total 100 27 73

San Francisco’s interesting situation

December 23rd, 2010

The 49ers are still in the thick of the NFC West playoff race, with a 35% chance of winning the division. At the same time, they are still mathematically alive to hold the #2 overall pick in the 2011 draft.

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 15

December 22nd, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.09 2.91 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 2.91 97.09 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 80.58 19.42 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 19.42 80.58 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 98.942 1.058
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 1.058 98.942

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 79.038 16.818 4.144 0.0
Jacksonville 18.818 75.582 5.6 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 55.03 44.97
Tennessee 2.144 7.6 35.226 55.03

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 46.496 51.324 2.18 0.0
Kansas City 52.454 43.112 4.434 0.0
Oakland 1.05 5.564 93.386 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 98.322 1.678 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 1.678 98.322 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 57.054 42.946
Dallas 0.0 0.0 42.946 57.054

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 62.464 37.536
Detroit 0.0 0.0 37.536 62.464

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 93.13 6.87 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 6.87 80.296 12.834 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 12.834 87.166 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 45.302 29.072 25.626 0.0
St Louis 19.234 44.252 34.916 1.598
San Francisco 35.464 26.676 35.766 2.094
Arizona 0.0 0.0 3.692 96.308

Generated: Wed Dec 22 13:58:50 EST 2010AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 97.09 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.91 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 80.52 0.06 0.0 3.272 16.148 100.0
NY Jets 2.41 0.5 0.0 0.0 34.596 61.888 99.394
Baltimore 0.5 18.92 0.0 0.0 59.154 18.542 97.116
Kansas City 0.0 0.06 48.272 4.122 0.0 0.0 52.454
San Diego 0.0 0.0 45.4 1.096 0.0 2.594 49.09
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 5.114 73.924 0.0 0.0 79.038
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.404 18.414 0.068 0.828 19.714
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.75 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.05
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.144 0.0 0.0 2.144
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 90.89 1.944 0.296 0.0 6.87 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 2.0 59.026 37.296 0.0 0.0 1.294 99.616
New Orleans 6.87 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.444 4.696 88.01
Chicago 0.24 37.588 62.172 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 1.442 0.236 0.0 7.95 46.378 56.006
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.302 0.0 0.0 45.302
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.464 0.0 0.0 35.464
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.234 0.0 0.0 19.234
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.892 38.87 46.762
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.844 8.762 9.606
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 22 13:58:50 EST 2010

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 14

December 16th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.838 2.162 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 2.162 92.39 5.448 0.0
Miami 0.0 5.448 94.552 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 92.88 7.12 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 7.12 92.88 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 99.44 0.56
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.56 99.44

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Jacksonville 31.488 56.842 11.67 0.0
Indianapolis 66.174 25.012 7.578 1.236
Houston 1.306 12.73 62.73 23.234
Tennessee 1.032 5.416 18.022 75.53

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 53.264 44.394 2.342 0.0
Kansas City 45.36 48.812 5.828 0.0
Oakland 1.376 6.794 91.83 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 53.13 46.87 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 46.87 53.13 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 71.906 28.094
Dallas 0.0 0.0 28.094 71.906

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 57.696 42.304 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 42.304 57.696 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 93.88 6.12
Detroit 0.0 0.0 6.12 93.88

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 89.422 10.578 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 10.578 78.378 11.044 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 11.044 88.956 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 48.296 30.276 21.26 0.168
St Louis 27.944 36.18 33.342 2.534
San Francisco 23.76 32.642 38.808 4.79
Arizona 0.0 0.902 6.59 92.508

Generated: Thu Dec 16 01:13:17 EST 2010

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 85.03 12.76 0.048 0.0 1.74 0.422 100.0
Pittsburgh 13.858 78.902 0.114 0.0060 3.328 3.792 100.0
Baltimore 0.304 6.808 0.0080 0.0 73.88 14.752 95.752
NY Jets 0.808 1.334 0.02 0.0 18.428 60.466 81.056
San Diego 0.0 0.0 49.532 3.732 2.202 11.244 66.71
Kansas City 0.0 0.06 39.108 6.192 0.078 3.342 48.78
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 7.678 58.496 0.0 0.078 66.252
Jacksonville 0.0 0.136 2.684 28.668 0.232 1.6 33.32
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.808 0.568 0.0 0.094 1.47
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.306 0.0 0.0 1.306
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.032 0.0 0.0 1.032
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.112 4.21 4.322
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 79.57 9.138 0.714 0.0 9.17 1.378 99.97
New Orleans 10.386 0.192 0.0 0.0 75.52 7.738 93.836
NY Giants 4.66 38.352 10.118 0.0 3.252 25.072 81.454
Philadelphia 4.61 26.288 15.972 0.0 3.078 24.5 74.448
Chicago 0.756 13.152 43.788 0.0 0.0 2.962 60.658
Green Bay 0.018 12.878 29.036 0.372 0.922 11.41 54.636
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.372 47.924 0.0 0.0 48.296
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.944 0.0 0.0 27.944
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.76 0.0 0.0 23.76
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.058 26.94 34.998
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 16 01:13:17 EST 2010

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 13

December 7th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 82.818 16.506 0.676 0.0
NY Jets 16.958 79.664 3.378 0.0
Miami 0.224 3.83 95.868 0.078
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.078 99.922

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 91.482 8.51 0.0080 0.0
Baltimore 8.518 90.13 1.352 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 1.36 97.754 0.886
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.886 99.114

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Jacksonville 34.686 35.27 24.974 5.07
Indianapolis 44.762 25.746 17.724 11.768
Houston 11.936 24.802 36.394 26.868
Tennessee 8.616 14.182 20.908 56.294

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 63.57 31.214 5.216 0.0
San Diego 33.468 55.428 10.996 0.108
Oakland 2.962 13.31 83.122 0.606
Denver 0.0 0.048 0.666 99.286

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 54.12 43.43 2.374 0.076
Philadelphia 45.744 51.76 2.356 0.14
Washington 0.136 3.036 62.012 34.816
Dallas 0.0 1.774 33.258 64.968

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 61.72 38.228 0.052 0.0
Chicago 38.28 61.72 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.052 99.478 0.47
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.47 99.53

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 76.776 23.142 0.082 0.0
New Orleans 23.216 70.858 5.926 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0080 6.0 93.992 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 60.46 26.964 12.556 0.02
St Louis 25.506 42.33 31.5 0.664
San Francisco 14.034 30.268 50.592 5.106
Arizona 0.0 0.438 5.352 94.21

Generated: Tue Dec 07 17:22:51 EST 2010


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 63.258 18.65 0.904 0.0060 14.654 1.93 99.402
Pittsburgh 28.838 61.386 1.17 0.088 3.39 4.882 99.754
NY Jets 6.754 9.334 0.808 0.062 35.838 38.064 90.86
Baltimore 0.988 6.798 0.656 0.076 42.818 32.194 83.53
Kansas City 0.156 3.044 56.264 4.106 0.138 3.654 67.362
San Diego 0.0 0.396 31.582 1.49 2.552 13.034 49.054
Indianapolis 0.0 0.042 4.264 40.456 0.0020 0.398 45.162
Jacksonville 0.0060 0.31 1.616 32.754 0.176 1.19 36.052
Oakland 0.0 0.0020 2.08 0.88 0.024 0.444 3.43
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.258 11.678 0.02 0.308 12.264
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.26 8.356 0.0 0.0060 8.622
Miami 0.0 0.038 0.138 0.048 0.372 3.606 4.202
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.29 0.306
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 68.28 6.64 1.852 0.0040 19.298 3.136 99.21
New Orleans 21.132 1.888 0.196 0.0 64.258 8.05 95.524
Green Bay 1.962 42.228 17.144 0.386 3.624 20.49 85.834
NY Giants 3.352 19.808 30.868 0.092 2.352 16.136 72.608
Chicago 2.542 21.426 14.178 0.134 5.0 30.314 73.594
Philadelphia 2.73 7.906 34.572 0.536 2.128 9.068 56.94
Seattle 0.0 0.098 1.036 59.326 0.0 0.03 60.49
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.048 25.458 0.0 0.0 25.506
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.034 0.0 0.0 14.034
Tampa Bay 0.0020 0.0060 0.0 0.0 3.34 12.464 15.812
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.106 0.03 0.0 0.264 0.4
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.046 0.046
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0020
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 07 17:22:51 EST 2010