Archive for November, 2012

2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 12

Wednesday, November 28th, 2012

Edit: I had an error in the week 11 NO Oakland game. It is now corrected. Sorry for the error.

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 95.064 4.826 0.11 0.0
Miami 4.838 40.784 31.606 22.772
NY Jets 0.032 29.804 40.84 29.324
Buffalo 0.066 24.586 27.444 47.904

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 91.848 7.538 0.614 0.0
Cincinnati 3.704 46.152 48.864 1.28
Pittsburgh 4.448 46.028 46.218 3.306
Cleveland 0.0 0.282 4.304 95.414

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 98.15 1.85 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 1.85 91.584 6.56 0.006
Tennessee 0.0 6.548 82.25 11.202
Jacksonville 0.0 0.018 11.19 88.792

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 78.884 21.018 0.098
Oakland 0.0 21.048 73.606 5.346
Kansas City 0.0 0.068 5.376 94.556

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 72.054 21.504 6.292 0.15
Washington 18.78 45.492 31.838 3.89
Dallas 9.064 31.908 53.58 5.448
Philadelphia 0.102 1.096 8.29 90.512

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 48.018 42.642 8.296 1.044
Green Bay 46.428 37.44 14.462 1.67
Minnesota 5.554 18.616 60.484 15.346
Detroit 0.0 1.302 16.758 81.94

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 99.276 0.72 0.004 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.692 68.936 26.212 4.16
New Orleans 0.032 25.854 35.326 38.788
Carolina 0.0 4.49 38.458 57.052

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 96.234 3.68 0.086 0.0
Seattle 3.652 84.432 9.798 2.118
St Louis 0.114 9.494 69.736 20.656
Arizona 0.0 2.394 20.38 77.226

Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 82.098 10.934 4.35 0.768 1.836 0.014 100.0
Denver 7.232 50.29 26.254 16.224 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 7.036 14.374 25.63 48.024 1.742 1.736 98.542
Baltimore 3.446 23.85 40.902 23.65 5.93 1.99 99.768
Indianapolis 0.188 0.512 0.642 0.508 46.138 26.678 74.666
Cincinnati 0.0 0.016 1.112 2.576 20.176 24.474 48.354
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.024 0.97 3.454 17.538 23.784 45.77
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.14 4.698 1.92 6.81 13.568
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.032 1.522 4.448 6.002
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.818 4.492 6.31
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.066 0.596 2.76 3.422
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.74 2.508 3.248
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.166 0.194
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.138 0.154
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 66.04 21.01 9.062 3.164 0.342 0.292 99.91
San Francisco 25.342 49.92 17.066 3.906 2.31 1.002 99.546
Chicago 4.814 12.2 21.79 9.214 25.736 13.364 87.118
NY Giants 2.074 7.616 24.266 38.098 5.912 7.626 85.592
Green Bay 1.546 7.282 22.274 15.326 19.662 14.046 80.136
Seattle 0.166 1.672 1.23 0.584 31.02 22.096 56.768
Minnesota 0.008 0.176 1.664 3.706 3.876 7.364 16.794
Washington 0.002 0.062 2.114 16.602 3.156 9.88 31.816
Tampa Bay 0.008 0.06 0.266 0.358 4.908 11.986 17.586
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.212 8.852 0.954 4.61 14.628
New Orleans 0.0 0.002 0.022 0.008 0.936 2.958 3.926
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.08 0.684 2.568 3.366
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.102 0.0 0.0 0.102
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.482 2.06 2.542
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.128 0.15
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02

Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012

2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 11

Tuesday, November 20th, 2012

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 91.874 6.114 1.78 0.232
NY Jets 3.634 47.61 32.11 16.646
Buffalo 1.148 29.298 32.228 37.326
Miami 3.344 16.978 33.882 45.796

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 80.232 16.908 2.86 0.0
Pittsburgh 15.798 54.984 27.696 1.522
Cincinnati 3.97 27.814 66.146 2.07
Cleveland 0.0 0.294 3.298 96.408

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 98.114 1.87 0.016 0.0
Indianapolis 1.856 80.756 17.344 0.044
Tennessee 0.03 17.292 77.002 5.676
Jacksonville 0.0 0.082 5.638 94.28

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 99.946 0.054 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.024 70.354 29.528 0.094
Oakland 0.03 29.564 68.454 1.952
Kansas City 0.0 0.028 2.018 97.954

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 55.13 32.6 10.882 1.388
Dallas 31.556 40.42 24.082 3.942
Washington 12.466 23.982 47.316 16.236
Philadelphia 0.848 2.998 17.72 78.434

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 60.648 27.232 10.116 2.004
Chicago 27.426 46.028 20.188 6.358
Minnesota 11.694 23.472 48.45 16.384
Detroit 0.232 3.268 21.246 75.254

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 94.304 5.642 0.054 0.0
Tampa Bay 5.64 79.778 13.41 1.172
New Orleans 0.056 12.942 43.41 43.592
Carolina 0.0 1.638 43.126 55.236

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 84.592 15.14 0.264 0.004
Seattle 15.266 78.514 5.566 0.654
Arizona 0.054 3.936 46.922 49.088
St Louis 0.088 2.41 47.248 50.254

Generated: Tue Nov 20 19:44:18 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 77.796 14.028 5.168 1.122 1.754 0.12 99.988
Denver 13.156 54.442 21.886 10.462 0.008 0.02 99.974
New England 5.8 12.002 23.664 50.408 1.384 2.244 95.502
Baltimore 2.984 18.146 40.136 18.966 11.988 4.908 97.128
Indianapolis 0.204 0.504 0.638 0.51 25.588 21.126 48.57
Pittsburgh 0.058 0.8 6.568 8.372 27.154 19.762 62.714
Cincinnati 0.002 0.062 1.474 2.432 12.07 15.684 31.724
NY Jets 0.0 0.01 0.176 3.448 4.432 9.718 17.784
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.176 3.168 0.744 2.266 6.354
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.09 1.058 3.476 6.56 11.184
San Diego 0.0 0.006 0.014 0.004 7.49 9.422 16.936
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.008 0.022 2.712 5.11 7.852
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.028 1.188 2.964 4.182
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.096 0.108
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 54.204 22.866 13.956 3.278 2.268 1.85 98.422
San Francisco 28.154 36.03 17.742 2.666 9.662 3.624 97.878
Green Bay 8.684 16.35 26.922 8.692 11.386 11.994 84.028
Chicago 4.186 8.508 11.372 3.36 22.864 17.982 68.272
Seattle 2.234 7.47 4.388 1.174 35.006 20.14 70.412
NY Giants 1.934 6.09 14.782 32.324 4.664 8.028 67.822
Tampa Bay 0.364 1.264 2.346 1.666 6.932 14.654 27.226
Minnesota 0.218 1.1 5.204 5.172 3.522 8.958 24.174
Dallas 0.018 0.228 2.278 29.032 1.15 4.31 37.016
Washington 0.0 0.066 0.838 11.562 0.634 2.722 15.822
Detroit 0.0 0.02 0.098 0.114 1.116 2.942 4.29
New Orleans 0.002 0.006 0.028 0.02 0.47 1.502 2.028
Arizona 0.002 0.002 0.02 0.03 0.162 0.598 0.814
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.848 0.004 0.022 0.874
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.026 0.062 0.16 0.674 0.922
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 20 19:44:18 EST 2012

2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 10

Tuesday, November 13th, 2012

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 80.06 12.238 3.716 0.798 2.854 0.28 99.946
Denver 12.844 57.746 20.18 8.42 0.3 0.26 99.75
New England 3.628 9.768 20.84 49.054 1.982 3.464 88.736
Baltimore 2.036 14.054 30.908 11.13 19.88 11.754 89.762
Pittsburgh 0.546 4.728 20.182 14.5 20.198 17.49 77.644
Indianapolis 0.876 1.066 0.752 0.434 32.772 24.01 59.91
Miami 0.0 0.146 2.088 10.524 2.332 6.384 21.474
San Diego 0.006 0.2 0.292 0.238 8.704 11.448 20.888
Cincinnati 0.004 0.044 0.796 1.066 4.334 8.708 14.952
NY Jets 0.0 0.004 0.138 2.55 1.584 4.644 8.92
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.076 1.184 1.288 3.152 5.7
Tennessee 0.0 0.006 0.018 0.036 2.994 6.102 9.156
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.06 0.746 2.114 2.934
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.032 0.18 0.218
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.008 0.008
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 48.508 24.262 15.724 5.47 1.428 1.728 97.12
San Francisco 22.872 27.972 19.114 4.746 11.51 6.634 92.848
Chicago 13.132 14.292 12.788 4.18 19.656 12.872 76.92
Green Bay 7.106 11.366 15.602 6.008 14.214 14.288 68.584
Seattle 3.78 9.486 7.472 2.92 28.912 17.358 69.928
NY Giants 3.516 8.128 15.046 28.994 5.94 8.142 69.766
Minnesota 0.386 1.408 4.428 4.88 4.19 9.294 24.586
Tampa Bay 0.314 0.992 1.956 2.122 3.824 8.192 17.4
Detroit 0.252 0.904 2.038 1.23 5.016 7.308 16.748
Dallas 0.088 0.858 4.346 30.358 1.77 5.058 42.478
New Orleans 0.032 0.09 0.222 0.21 1.124 2.576 4.254
St Louis 0.008 0.138 0.666 0.452 1.472 3.34 6.076
Washington 0.0 0.048 0.392 4.844 0.246 1.114 6.644
Arizona 0.006 0.056 0.138 0.174 0.67 1.616 2.66
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.054 3.328 0.004 0.14 3.526
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.084 0.024 0.34 0.462

Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 83.29 12.918 3.412 0.38
Miami 12.758 41.202 28.528 17.512
NY Jets 2.692 27.094 40.114 30.1
Buffalo 1.26 18.786 27.946 52.008

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 58.128 36.598 5.254 0.02
Pittsburgh 39.956 47.978 11.004 1.062
Cincinnati 1.91 14.724 72.93 10.436
Cleveland 0.006 0.7 10.812 88.482

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 96.812 3.13 0.058 0.0
Indianapolis 3.128 80.604 16.228 0.04
Tennessee 0.06 16.194 78.42 5.326
Jacksonville 0.0 0.072 5.294 94.634

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 99.19 0.794 0.016 0.0
San Diego 0.736 75.108 23.932 0.224
Oakland 0.074 23.99 70.858 5.078
Kansas City 0.0 0.108 5.194 94.698

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 55.684 34.276 8.554 1.486
Dallas 35.65 43.098 16.566 4.686
Washington 5.284 13.644 36.762 44.31
Philadelphia 3.382 8.982 38.118 49.518

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 44.392 34.436 14.376 6.796
Green Bay 40.082 32.022 17.172 10.724
Minnesota 11.102 22.004 41.038 25.856
Detroit 4.424 11.538 27.414 56.624

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 93.964 5.63 0.382 0.024
Tampa Bay 5.384 53.638 27.304 13.674
New Orleans 0.554 22.198 35.292 41.956
Carolina 0.098 18.534 37.022 44.346

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 74.704 22.366 2.674 0.256
Seattle 23.658 63.422 10.76 2.16
St Louis 1.264 8.484 52.126 38.126
Arizona 0.374 5.728 34.44 59.458

Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012

2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 9

Wednesday, November 7th, 2012

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 63.066 24.714 9.862 2.358
Miami 28.648 40.452 21.914 8.986
NY Jets 5.796 24.028 44.362 25.814
Buffalo 2.49 10.806 23.862 62.842

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 44.328 48.048 7.518 0.106
Pittsburgh 53.822 38.606 6.822 0.75
Cincinnati 1.836 12.576 70.33 15.258
Cleveland 0.014 0.77 15.33 83.886

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 97.196 2.77 0.034 0.0
Indianapolis 2.764 83.69 12.752 0.794
Tennessee 0.038 12.122 66.21 21.63
Jacksonville 0.002 1.418 21.004 77.576

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 97.938 1.924 0.138 0.0
San Diego 1.602 60.374 37.742 0.282
Oakland 0.46 37.6 59.514 2.426
Kansas City 0.0 0.102 2.606 97.292

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 75.69 19.922 3.834 0.554
Dallas 16.928 47.516 24.402 11.154
Philadelphia 4.39 18.166 38.6 38.844
Washington 2.992 14.396 33.164 49.448

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 56.176 30.04 10.334 3.45
Green Bay 32.014 37.464 20.43 10.092
Detroit 7.234 18.652 35.278 38.836
Minnesota 4.576 13.844 33.958 47.622

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 98.174 1.674 0.136 0.016
Tampa Bay 1.508 47.066 35.412 16.014
Carolina 0.236 40.528 41.442 17.794
New Orleans 0.082 10.732 23.01 66.176

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.786 7.114 0.986 0.114
Seattle 6.5 69.144 18.69 5.666
St Louis 1.434 14.464 46.718 37.384
Arizona 0.28 9.278 33.606 56.836

Generated: Wed Nov 07 01:42:20 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 78.554 13.306 4.064 1.272 2.358 0.324 99.878
Denver 13.05 51.968 21.318 11.602 0.698 0.626 99.262
New England 4.14 10.476 18.824 29.626 7.248 8.52 78.834
Baltimore 1.628 10.576 19.294 12.83 19.158 12.34 75.826
Pittsburgh 1.67 9.03 22.65 20.472 14.414 11.364 79.6
Indianapolis 0.718 0.838 0.788 0.42 21.534 17.024 41.322
Miami 0.2 3.116 10.532 14.8 10.754 13.536 52.938
San Diego 0.034 0.43 0.478 0.66 9.45 10.548 21.6
NY Jets 0.0 0.078 0.878 4.84 4.218 8.334 18.348
Cincinnati 0.004 0.068 0.51 1.254 2.762 5.158 9.756
Oakland 0.002 0.072 0.168 0.218 4.95 6.928 12.338
Buffalo 0.0 0.042 0.48 1.968 1.642 3.362 7.494
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.026 0.778 1.732 2.548
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.01 0.016 0.112 0.142
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.02 0.09 0.112
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 52.38 24.94 14.428 6.426 0.446 0.538 99.158
San Francisco 24.618 33.002 21.17 12.996 3.058 2.05 96.894
Chicago 12.822 17.316 17.47 8.568 20.14 10.668 86.984
NY Giants 6.55 13.562 22.26 33.318 4.396 5.658 85.744
Green Bay 2.658 6.716 14.208 8.432 21.08 16.244 69.338
Seattle 0.458 2.184 2.426 1.432 26.078 20.134 52.712
Detroit 0.362 1.256 3.266 2.35 11.674 12.754 31.662
Minnesota 0.056 0.52 1.472 2.528 3.724 7.118 15.418
Tampa Bay 0.058 0.17 0.478 0.802 3.184 6.362 11.054
Dallas 0.022 0.206 1.834 14.866 2.732 7.024 26.684
St Louis 0.004 0.068 0.528 0.834 1.156 3.766 6.356
Philadelphia 0.006 0.012 0.154 4.218 0.18 0.818 5.388
Arizona 0.004 0.012 0.086 0.178 0.768 1.986 3.034
Washington 0.0 0.014 0.162 2.816 0.506 1.618 5.116
New Orleans 0.002 0.02 0.024 0.036 0.29 0.784 1.156
Carolina 0.0 0.002 0.034 0.2 0.588 2.478 3.302

Generated: Wed Nov 07 01:42:20 EST 2012