Archive for December, 2006

Playoff predictions 2006, after week 16

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

Here they are.

Once the playoff teams are finalized, I’ll do a year in reveiw post and a preview of improvements on slate for next season.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 69.68 30.32 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 30.32 69.68 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 85.48 14.52 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 14.52 85.48 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 71.68 28.32 0.0 0.0
Dallas 28.32 71.68 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 75.08 24.92 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 24.92 75.08 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 83.9 16.1 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 16.1 75.4 8.5
Arizona 0.0 0.0 8.5 91.5

Generated: Tue Dec 26 00:38:01 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
San Diego 91.28 8.72 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 8.72 71.08 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.0 20.2 64.86 14.94 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 0.0 14.94 85.06 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.84 10.64 85.48
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.84 61.22 84.06
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.32 21.02 23.34
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.86 2.86
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.96 1.96
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 71.68 0.0 28.32 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 0.0 28.32 0.0 71.68 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.64 68.64
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.58 10.58
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 8.3
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.64 7.64
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.84 4.84
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 26 00:38:01 EST 2006

 

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Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 15

Tuesday, December 19th, 2006

The end is near, the end is near!

 I’ll post the DVOA comparison graph tomorrow. Should be interesting.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 92.02 7.98 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 7.98 84.46 7.56 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 7.56 89.04 3.4
Miami 0.0 0.0 3.4 96.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 92.36 7.64 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 7.64 92.36 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 70.44 29.56 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 29.56 70.44 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 77.14 22.86 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 22.86 77.14 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 69.84 27.96 2.2 0.0
Philadelphia 30.16 50.56 19.28 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 21.48 78.52 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 53.86 46.14 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 46.14 53.86 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 69.56 30.44 0.0
Carolina 0.0 30.44 69.56 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 96.28 3.72 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 3.72 67.54 26.64 2.1
St Louis 0.0 27.66 70.94 1.4
Arizona 0.0 1.08 2.42 96.5

Generated: Tue Dec 19 00:30:23 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
San Diego 86.86 11.64 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 11.06 16.2 69.28 3.46 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 2.08 72.0 23.42 2.5 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 0.16 5.8 86.06 2.26 3.0 97.28
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.98 11.72 34.06 53.76
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.76 12.8 55.56
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.78 21.24 57.02
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.74 20.88 27.62
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.52 3.1 3.62
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.18 1.98 2.16
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 1.14 1.18
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 66.26 31.1 2.64 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 30.2 37.0 2.64 27.96 2.2 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 3.22 26.24 0.7 36.7 22.6 89.46
Seattle 0.0 0.32 5.66 90.3 0.0 0.46 96.74
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.72 0.0 1.42 5.14
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.66 36.5 54.16
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.76 12.64 28.4
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.92 20.2 22.12
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.68 1.68
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 19 00:30:23 EST 2006

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NFL Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 14

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

Here are this week’s forecasts.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 93.2 6.8 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 6.8 64.62 26.8 1.78
Buffalo 0.0 19.52 48.86 31.62
Miami 0.0 9.06 24.34 66.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 95.42 4.58 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 4.58 92.72 2.7 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 2.7 96.2 1.1
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 1.1 98.9

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 97.98 2.02 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 2.02 85.28 12.7 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 12.7 86.28 1.02
Houston 0.0 0.0 1.02 98.98

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 54.98 45.02 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 45.02 54.98 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 66.36 24.66 8.98 0.0
NY Giants 18.24 49.44 32.32 0.0
Philadelphia 15.4 25.9 58.7 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 69.32 30.68 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 30.68 69.32 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 98.22 1.78 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.36 63.54 36.1 0.0
Carolina 1.42 34.68 63.9 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 98.34 1.66 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 35.26 50.5 14.24
San Francisco 1.66 52.84 25.4 20.1
Arizona 0.0 10.24 24.1 65.66

Generated: Tue Dec 12 00:17:35 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
San Diego 76.02 19.58 4.26 0.14 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 16.4 26.06 47.96 5.0 3.28 1.22 99.92
Indianapolis 7.58 50.78 32.28 7.34 1.02 0.8 99.8
New England 0.0 2.12 12.84 78.24 1.12 1.78 96.1
Cincinnati 0.0 1.18 1.24 2.16 38.28 24.26 67.12
Jacksonville 0.0 0.28 1.42 0.32 20.8 28.84 51.66
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 2.82 10.9 20.52
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.3 16.42 43.72
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.56 10.38 14.94
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.62 2.76 3.38
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 1.32 1.46
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.72 0.76
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.6 0.62
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 97.94 2.06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 2.06 77.36 15.26 3.54 0.46 0.94 99.62
Dallas 0.0 10.56 41.66 14.14 16.34 10.28 92.98
Seattle 0.0 3.82 27.36 67.16 0.0 0.04 98.38
NY Giants 0.0 5.54 4.58 8.12 35.44 19.32 73.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.48 10.86 4.06 20.5 25.42 61.32
Atlanta 0.0 0.18 0.12 0.06 17.96 17.24 35.56
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.16 1.26 1.2 5.6 8.22
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.66 0.0 0.12 1.78
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.08 20.56 28.64
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.36 0.38
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.12
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 12 00:17:35 EST 2006

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Graphical Comparison of DVOA and NFL-Forecast after Week 13, 2006

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

I’ve prepared the comparison between playoff predictions based on DVOA power ratings and NFL-Forecast playoff predictions in graphical time-series form , from week 9 through week 13. The filled circles represent DVOA predictions while the open circles represent my predictions. Hopefully the team-based color coding that I used is self explanatory. I’ll include the Week 13 DVOA ratings as soon as Mike Harris posts them.

The first set of graphs shows the division races (I’ve shown only teams that have had a significant chance since week 9). All 8 division races appear to be converging to selecting a champion, using both the DVOA and NFL-Forecast projections. DVOA ratings did significantly better in predicting the AFC West race, recognizing the superiority of the Chargers compared to the Broncos. In the NFC East race, my software had greater misplaced confidence in the Giants than DVOA, but transferred this misplaced confidence to the Eagles. Neither system really picked out the Cowboys as the division winner significantly better that the other. In the rest of the races, the predictions were comparable, with DVOA converging to apparent division winners slightly faster than NFL-forecast, with the exception of the NFC West race. My system still holds a bit of hope for the Jets, to eek out the AFC East title, while the DVOA has declared the race all but over. In contrast, the Wild Card races are not converging, with only 4 weeks remaining in the season.

The Wild Card race this year appears to be a white noise process, with team’s fortunes rising and falling on a weekly basis. The early front runners as predicted by both systems, the Broncos and Giants, have lost much of their lead. It will be interesting to see if either system outperforms the other in the WC race, but the lack of convergence would seem to indicate that any better performance of one system over the other would be attributable to luck rather than reproducible predictive ability. Nevertheless, forecasts like these during dynamic non-converging playoff races do help quantify the race if it is understood to be a snapshot in time.

Only preliminary conclusions can be made, since the playoff races are not over yet, and even when they are, a single season is still a pretty small data set. But this playoff forecasting exercise appears to be pointing to a small but significant advantage of DVOA compared to win-only systems in predicting future results.

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Playoff predictions, 2006 after week 13

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

Here are this week’s playoff predictions. If you’re a fan of one of the five 7-5 AFC teams or one of the four 6-6 NFC teams, you’ll want to try out the software this week if you haven’t already done so. There are lots and lots of scenarios to analyze and my software automatically analyzes all the tiebreakers for you. It’s playoff madness!

Tomorrow, I’ll post a graphical week-by-week comparison of my forecasts and the DVOA forecasts, starting from week 9 until now.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 85.82 14.18 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 14.18 79.94 5.72 0.16
Buffalo 0.0 4.2 52.86 42.94
Miami 0.0 1.68 41.42 56.9

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 90.06 9.8 0.14 0.0
Cincinnati 9.82 86.7 3.46 0.02
Pittsburgh 0.12 3.38 73.04 23.46
Cleveland 0.0 0.12 23.36 76.52

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.38 0.62 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.62 80.26 18.08 1.04
Tennessee 0.0 17.48 59.12 23.4
Houston 0.0 1.64 22.8 75.56

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 94.58 4.54 0.88 0.0
Denver 3.16 51.08 45.76 0.0
Kansas City 2.26 44.38 53.36 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 87.18 10.88 1.9 0.04
NY Giants 5.82 58.76 31.64 3.78
Philadelphia 6.98 27.56 48.72 16.74
Washington 0.02 2.8 17.74 79.44

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 68.6 30.24 1.16
Green Bay 0.0 31.14 65.96 2.9
Detroit 0.0 0.26 3.8 95.94

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 86.5 11.12 2.38 0.0
Atlanta 3.74 53.52 42.54 0.2
Carolina 9.76 35.36 54.82 0.06
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.26 99.74

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 97.98 1.9 0.12 0.0
St Louis 0.22 38.86 57.48 3.44
San Francisco 1.8 57.32 35.14 5.74
Arizona 0.0 1.92 7.26 90.82

Generated: Tue Dec 05 00:20:05 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 47.86 34.56 11.76 5.2 0.3 0.22 99.9
San Diego 41.5 30.56 17.6 4.92 4.22 0.98 99.78
Baltimore 7.3 21.14 37.78 23.84 3.8 2.74 96.6
New England 3.2 11.9 26.52 44.2 6.36 3.76 95.94
Denver 0.08 0.82 1.4 0.86 29.22 18.36 50.74
Cincinnati 0.04 0.56 1.72 7.5 22.3 20.68 52.8
Kansas City 0.0 0.32 0.94 1.0 8.92 14.42 25.6
NY Jets 0.0 0.04 2.0 12.14 14.38 22.02 50.58
Jacksonville 0.02 0.1 0.28 0.22 10.36 15.6 26.58
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.0 0.28 0.4
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.52 0.58
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.24 0.3
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.12 0.14
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 96.22 3.46 0.3 0.02 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 2.8 35.54 25.2 22.96 6.9 3.88 97.28
Dallas 0.46 30.94 29.46 26.32 6.92 3.62 97.72
Seattle 0.52 28.6 38.08 30.78 0.58 0.48 99.04
NY Giants 0.0 0.78 1.46 3.58 25.82 18.54 50.18
Philadelphia 0.0 0.26 2.32 4.4 15.22 18.2 40.4
Carolina 0.0 0.18 1.68 7.9 12.48 15.04 37.28
Atlanta 0.0 0.24 1.32 2.18 23.36 17.06 44.16
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.16 1.64 1.16 4.42 7.38
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.12 12.22 18.34
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.2 1.08 4.48 5.78
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.34 1.52 1.88
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.54 0.56
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 05 00:20:05 EST 2006

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