Archive for December, 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 15

Thursday, December 19th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

html>Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 95.968 4.032 0.0 0.0
Miami 4.032 91.4 4.568 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 4.568 60.7 34.732
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 34.732 65.268

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 91.016 8.984 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 8.984 79.02 11.996 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 11.996 88.004 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 83.866 16.134 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 16.134 83.866 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 89.014 10.986 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 10.986 89.014 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 76.18 23.82 0.0 0.0
Dallas 23.82 76.18 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 48.912 25.886 25.202 0.0
Green Bay 30.954 34.132 34.914 0.0
Detroit 20.134 39.982 39.884 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 69.562 30.438 0.0 0.0
Carolina 30.438 69.562 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 74.374 25.626
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 25.626 74.374

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.296 0.704 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.704 97.248 2.048 0.0
Arizona 0.0 2.048 97.952 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 18 21:07:20 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 73.926 13.552 0.726 0.81 10.986 0.0 100.0
New England 15.496 39.28 24.804 16.388 0.0 3.534 99.502
Kansas City 9.714 1.272 0.0 0.0 89.014 0.0 100.0
Cincinnati 0.102 26.004 55.5 9.41 0.0 4.176 95.192
Indianapolis 0.762 18.214 12.764 68.26 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.83 4.24 3.914 0.0 15.434 24.418
Miami 0.0 0.848 1.966 1.218 0.0 73.526 77.558
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.09 3.09
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.24
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 99.296 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.704 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.376 69.186 0.0 0.0 16.314 13.606 99.482
Carolina 0.178 30.26 0.0 0.0 31.622 26.8 88.86
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 52.404 23.776 0.0 0.0 76.18
Chicago 0.0 0.0 28.122 20.79 0.0 0.0 48.912
San Francisco 0.15 0.554 0.0 0.0 49.846 47.402 97.952
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 14.61 16.344 0.0 0.0 30.954
Detroit 0.0 0.0 3.828 16.306 0.0 0.0 20.134
Dallas 0.0 0.0 1.036 22.784 0.0 0.0 23.82
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.514 12.192 13.706
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 18 21:07:20 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 14

Wednesday, December 11th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.092 1.908 0.0 0.0
Miami 1.908 83.402 13.524 1.166
NY Jets 0.0 14.124 67.27 18.606
Buffalo 0.0 0.566 19.206 80.228

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 98.892 1.108 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 1.108 73.036 24.992 0.864
Pittsburgh 0.0 20.98 51.968 27.052
Cleveland 0.0 4.876 23.04 72.084

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 80.26 18.866 0.874
Jacksonville 0.0 19.74 79.048 1.212
Houston 0.0 0.0 2.086 97.914

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 98.054 1.946 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 1.946 98.054 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 94.918 5.082
Oakland 0.0 0.0 5.082 94.918

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 81.982 17.78 0.238 0.0
Dallas 18.018 80.568 1.414 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 1.652 96.27 2.078
Washington 0.0 0.0 2.078 97.922

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 70.856 23.542 5.602 0.0
Chicago 12.71 44.658 42.632 0.0
Green Bay 16.434 31.8 51.766 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 94.596 5.404 0.0 0.0
Carolina 5.404 94.596 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 51.102 48.898
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 48.898 51.102

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 97.572 2.428 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 2.428 91.628 5.944 0.0
Arizona 0.0 5.944 93.972 0.084
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.084 99.916

Generated: Wed Dec 11 22:10:26 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 78.992 15.408 3.41 0.244 1.946 0.0 100.0
New England 15.61 38.088 36.556 7.838 0.246 1.602 99.94
Cincinnati 4.114 41.944 49.656 3.178 0.068 0.618 99.578
Kansas City 1.242 0.564 0.14 0.0 95.598 2.432 99.976
Indianapolis 0.042 3.712 8.322 87.924 0.0 0.0 100.0
Miami 0.0 0.22 1.314 0.374 2.082 62.408 66.398
Baltimore 0.0 0.064 0.602 0.442 0.06 22.636 23.804
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.51 4.51
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.122 4.122
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.828 0.828
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 0.76
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.042 0.042
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.024
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.016
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 94.01 3.512 0.05 0.0 2.384 0.044 100.0
New Orleans 5.756 86.954 1.886 0.0 3.862 1.48 99.938
Philadelphia 0.008 2.348 71.062 8.564 0.332 1.892 84.206
Carolina 0.092 4.982 0.33 0.0 52.058 28.612 86.074
San Francisco 0.134 2.202 0.092 0.0 37.516 53.0 92.944
Detroit 0.0 0.0 12.352 58.504 0.002 0.18 71.038
Chicago 0.0 0.0 6.74 5.97 0.006 0.116 12.832
Dallas 0.0 0.002 5.1 12.916 0.012 0.826 18.856
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 2.388 14.046 0.0 0.216 16.65
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.828 13.634 17.462
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 11 22:10:26 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 13

Thursday, December 5th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 96.62 3.38 0.0 0.0
Miami 3.362 76.408 14.92 5.31
NY Jets 0.018 10.7 45.678 43.604
Buffalo 0.0 9.512 39.402 51.086

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 98.238 1.568 0.19 0.004
Baltimore 1.474 45.62 46.2 6.706
Pittsburgh 0.284 39.122 31.892 28.702
Cleveland 0.004 13.69 21.718 64.588

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.932 0.068 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.068 87.758 10.39 1.784
Jacksonville 0.0 7.478 45.34 47.182
Houston 0.0 4.696 44.27 51.034

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 98.178 1.822 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 1.822 97.392 0.786 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.786 84.476 14.738
Oakland 0.0 0.0 14.738 85.262

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 65.516 31.67 2.814 0.0
Dallas 34.29 61.988 3.722 0.0
NY Giants 0.194 6.342 88.32 5.144
Washington 0.0 0.0 5.144 94.856

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 84.684 13.302 1.996 0.018
Green Bay 9.994 41.53 48.214 0.262
Chicago 5.32 45.132 48.816 0.732
Minnesota 0.002 0.036 0.974 98.988

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 79.762 20.238 0.0 0.0
Carolina 20.238 79.762 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 57.446 42.554
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 42.554 57.446

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.134 0.866 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.866 83.316 15.818 0.0
Arizona 0.0 15.818 81.022 3.16
St Louis 0.0 0.0 3.16 96.84

Generated: Wed Dec 04 23:14:18 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 76.95 15.276 5.27 0.682 1.804 0.018 100.0
New England 13.534 29.842 36.4 16.844 0.922 2.178 99.72
Cincinnati 7.106 40.348 34.914 15.87 0.218 0.91 99.366
Indianapolis 1.338 13.608 20.96 64.026 0.0 0.004 99.936
Kansas City 1.072 0.562 0.172 0.016 90.442 6.882 99.146
Miami 0.0 0.268 1.888 1.206 5.336 45.746 54.444
Baltimore 0.0 0.096 0.388 0.99 0.636 17.688 19.798
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.28 0.204 11.56 12.048
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.064 0.024 4.522 4.614
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.414 4.94 5.354
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.0 2.272 2.29
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.646 1.646
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.91 0.914
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.696 0.696
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.028
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 98.254 0.862 0.018 0.0 0.852 0.014 100.0
New Orleans 1.346 77.162 1.254 0.0 16.508 3.416 99.686
Carolina 0.334 19.388 0.512 0.004 59.658 15.484 95.38
Philadelphia 0.0 1.652 42.69 21.174 0.856 4.516 70.888
Detroit 0.0 0.108 42.27 42.306 0.016 0.382 85.082
San Francisco 0.066 0.758 0.04 0.002 16.386 60.16 77.412
Dallas 0.0 0.07 8.386 25.834 0.224 2.436 36.95
Chicago 0.0 0.0 2.872 2.448 0.008 0.272 5.6
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 1.882 8.112 0.02 0.788 10.802
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.076 0.118 0.0 0.172 0.366
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.472 12.36 17.832
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.002
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 04 23:14:18 EST 2013