Archive for December, 2012

2012 Playoff Outcome Forecasts

Monday, December 31st, 2012

Below are screenshots from my software that show the odds of each team advancing to the Super Bowl.

Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats. I am using the team efficiency ratings going into week 17.

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2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 16

Wednesday, December 26th, 2012

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 72.58 27.42 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 27.42 72.58 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington 64.794 35.206 0.0 0.0
Dallas 35.206 20.876 43.918 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 43.918 56.082 0.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 77.136 22.864 0.0
Chicago 0.0 22.864 77.136 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 46.158 53.842 0.0
Carolina 0.0 53.842 0.0 46.158
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 46.158 53.842

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 89.106 10.894 0.0 0.0
Seattle 10.894 89.106 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 26 16:06:37 EST 2012

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 58.654 16.28 25.066 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 37.902 54.144 7.954 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 3.444 29.576 53.834 13.146 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 13.146 86.854 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 100.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 0.0 57.83 42.17 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 0.0 37.32 51.786 0.0 10.894 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.0 4.85 6.044 0.0 89.106 0.0 100.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.794 0.0 11.522 76.316
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.206 0.0 0.0 35.206
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.054 51.054
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.864 22.864
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.56 14.56
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 26 16:06:37 EST 2012

2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 15

Wednesday, December 19th, 2012

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 53.788 43.492 2.72
Miami 0.0 23.956 45.632 30.412
Buffalo 0.0 22.256 10.876 66.868

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 75.692 24.308 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 12.276 40.996 46.728 0.0
Pittsburgh 12.032 34.696 50.866 2.406
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 2.406 97.594

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 91.816 8.184 0.0
Oakland 0.0 8.184 91.816 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington 54.692 25.292 20.016 0.0
Dallas 29.97 34.12 35.91 0.0
NY Giants 15.338 40.588 44.074 0.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 60.304 39.696 0.0
Chicago 0.0 39.696 60.304 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 45.88 30.002 24.118
Tampa Bay 0.0 29.206 45.88 24.914
Carolina 0.0 24.914 24.118 50.968

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 94.108 5.892 0.0 0.0
Seattle 5.892 94.108 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 97.3 2.7
Arizona 0.0 0.0 2.7 97.3

Generated: Wed Dec 19 12:21:39 EST 2012

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 90.676 5.464 3.86 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 7.808 77.942 14.25 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 1.516 16.594 67.512 14.378 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 14.378 61.314 6.474 17.834 100.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.276 3.82 37.296 53.392
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.032 7.352 26.224 45.608
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.354 17.526 99.88
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.12 1.12
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 90.386 7.304 2.31 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 5.924 65.124 23.06 0.0 5.892 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 3.69 23.922 67.896 4.492 0.0 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.0 3.65 2.242 0.0 73.582 15.75 95.224
Washington 0.0 0.0 2.488 52.204 2.074 14.966 71.732
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 2.004 13.334 13.984 21.738 51.06
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.97 0.0 4.0 33.97
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.446 21.218 23.664
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.022 22.03 24.052
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.196 0.196
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.102 0.102
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 19 12:21:39 EST 2012

2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 14

Friday, December 14th, 2012

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 64.284 32.108 3.608
Miami 0.0 16.114 42.872 41.014
Buffalo 0.0 19.602 25.02 55.378

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 87.96 12.04 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 5.206 36.378 55.376 3.04
Pittsburgh 6.834 50.784 36.132 6.25
Cleveland 0.0 0.798 8.492 90.71

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 92.982 7.018 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 7.018 92.982 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 94.524 5.476
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 5.476 94.524

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 97.266 2.734 0.0
Oakland 0.0 2.734 76.274 20.992
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 20.992 79.008

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 48.846 35.5 15.654 0.0
Washington 30.556 35.358 33.1 0.986
Dallas 20.598 29.142 50.26 0.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.986 99.014

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 86.278 10.734 2.988 0.0
Chicago 11.53 69.882 18.588 0.0
Minnesota 2.192 19.384 78.424 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 61.252 28.756 9.992
New Orleans 0.0 28.756 33.294 37.95
Carolina 0.0 9.992 37.95 52.058

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 87.496 12.302 0.202 0.0
Seattle 12.37 77.43 10.2 0.0
St Louis 0.134 10.268 89.314 0.284
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.284 99.716

Generated: Wed Dec 12 01:10:07 EST 2012

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 69.83 17.998 5.154 0.0 7.018 0.0 100.0
New England 20.52 30.164 38.144 11.172 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 8.464 43.308 38.734 9.494 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.878 2.772 3.006 0.362 78.048 12.7 97.766
Baltimore 0.308 5.758 14.962 66.932 2.442 9.598 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.834 5.884 40.942 53.66
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.206 5.24 29.142 39.588
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.368 3.818 5.186
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.086 1.086
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.054 1.054
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.034 1.034
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.626 0.626
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 80.506 12.76 5.168 1.566 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 12.31 54.352 18.664 2.17 10.164 1.944 99.604
Green Bay 5.962 18.26 42.636 19.42 2.556 5.672 94.506
NY Giants 0.73 5.206 17.448 25.462 12.316 13.95 75.112
Seattle 0.414 7.658 3.608 0.69 49.546 20.06 81.976
Chicago 0.078 1.71 6.904 2.838 16.866 30.26 58.656
Washington 0.0 0.052 3.876 26.628 3.818 12.45 46.824
Dallas 0.0 0.002 1.148 19.448 0.65 4.424 25.672
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.506 1.686 1.032 5.19 8.414
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.042 0.092 3.018 5.346 8.498
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.68 0.714
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.024
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 12 01:10:07 EST 2012

2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 13

Wednesday, December 5th, 2012

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 45.956 35.908 18.136
Miami 0.0 26.752 36.808 36.44
Buffalo 0.0 27.292 27.284 45.424

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 75.058 22.092 2.85 0.0
Cincinnati 12.314 35.182 51.614 0.89
Pittsburgh 12.628 42.608 42.494 2.27
Cleveland 0.0 0.118 3.042 96.84

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 97.026 2.974 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 2.974 96.344 0.682 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.682 89.864 9.454
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 9.454 90.546

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 82.026 17.636 0.338
Oakland 0.0 17.416 63.462 19.122
Kansas City 0.0 0.558 18.902 80.54

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 54.648 32.796 12.462 0.094
Washington 30.482 39.022 29.812 0.684
Dallas 14.87 28.124 56.884 0.122
Philadelphia 0.0 0.058 0.842 99.1

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 67.378 27.954 4.668 0.0
Chicago 30.582 59.418 9.456 0.544
Minnesota 2.04 12.454 77.92 7.586
Detroit 0.0 0.174 7.956 91.87

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 71.084 26.474 2.442
New Orleans 0.0 26.56 42.328 31.112
Carolina 0.0 2.356 31.198 66.446

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 85.582 13.968 0.45 0.0
Seattle 14.082 76.162 9.27 0.486
St Louis 0.336 9.634 85.168 4.862
Arizona 0.0 0.236 5.112 94.652

Generated: Wed Dec 05 02:27:07 EST 2012

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 84.994 9.726 2.284 0.022 2.974 0.0 100.0
New England 10.058 23.218 36.842 29.882 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 3.954 52.852 30.25 12.944 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 0.432 12.97 26.65 35.006 12.29 10.894 98.242
Indianapolis 0.562 1.184 0.996 0.232 54.944 25.492 83.41
Cincinnati 0.0 0.032 1.692 10.59 12.854 26.318 51.486
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.018 1.286 11.324 15.834 30.712 59.174
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.652 2.73 3.382
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.232 1.616 1.848
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.188 1.596 1.784
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.31 0.33
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.008 0.236 0.244
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.096 0.1
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 87.682 8.762 2.96 0.596 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 6.804 52.29 23.23 3.258 8.71 4.304 98.596
Green Bay 3.008 16.818 32.624 14.928 9.438 12.288 89.104
Chicago 1.718 9.226 14.522 5.116 25.032 23.236 78.85
NY Giants 0.484 5.028 17.342 31.794 8.262 11.378 74.288
Seattle 0.304 7.706 4.534 1.538 39.654 20.994 74.73
Washington 0.0 0.152 3.714 26.616 3.558 8.972 43.012
Dallas 0.0 0.004 0.436 14.43 0.542 3.306 18.718
Minnesota 0.0 0.01 0.494 1.536 0.828 3.462 6.33
St Louis 0.0 0.004 0.144 0.188 1.834 4.29 6.46
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.91 6.634 8.544
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.226 1.026 1.252
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.08 0.084
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.03 0.032
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 05 02:27:07 EST 2012