NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	64.284	32.108	3.608
Miami	0.0	16.114	42.872	41.014
Buffalo	0.0	19.602	25.02	55.378

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	87.96	12.04	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	5.206	36.378	55.376	3.04
Pittsburgh	6.834	50.784	36.132	6.25
Cleveland	0.0	0.798	8.492	90.71

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	92.982	7.018	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	7.018	92.982	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	94.524	5.476
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	5.476	94.524

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Diego	0.0	97.266	2.734	0.0
Oakland	0.0	2.734	76.274	20.992
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	20.992	79.008

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	48.846	35.5	15.654	0.0
Washington	30.556	35.358	33.1	0.986
Dallas	20.598	29.142	50.26	0.0
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.986	99.014

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	86.278	10.734	2.988	0.0
Chicago	11.53	69.882	18.588	0.0
Minnesota	2.192	19.384	78.424	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	61.252	28.756	9.992
New Orleans	0.0	28.756	33.294	37.95
Carolina	0.0	9.992	37.95	52.058

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	87.496	12.302	0.202	0.0
Seattle	12.37	77.43	10.2	0.0
St Louis	0.134	10.268	89.314	0.284
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.284	99.716

Generated: Wed Dec 12 01:10:07 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	69.83	17.998	5.154	0.0	7.018	0.0	100.0
New England	20.52	30.164	38.144	11.172	0.0	0.0	100.0
Denver	8.464	43.308	38.734	9.494	0.0	0.0	100.0
Indianapolis	0.878	2.772	3.006	0.362	78.048	12.7	97.766
Baltimore	0.308	5.758	14.962	66.932	2.442	9.598	100.0
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.834	5.884	40.942	53.66
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.206	5.24	29.142	39.588
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.368	3.818	5.186
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.086	1.086
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.054	1.054
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.034	1.034
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.626	0.626
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	80.506	12.76	5.168	1.566	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Francisco	12.31	54.352	18.664	2.17	10.164	1.944	99.604
Green Bay	5.962	18.26	42.636	19.42	2.556	5.672	94.506
NY Giants	0.73	5.206	17.448	25.462	12.316	13.95	75.112
Seattle	0.414	7.658	3.608	0.69	49.546	20.06	81.976
Chicago	0.078	1.71	6.904	2.838	16.866	30.26	58.656
Washington	0.0	0.052	3.876	26.628	3.818	12.45	46.824
Dallas	0.0	0.002	1.148	19.448	0.65	4.424	25.672
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.506	1.686	1.032	5.19	8.414
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.042	0.092	3.018	5.346	8.498
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.034	0.68	0.714
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.024	0.024
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 12 01:10:07 EST 2012

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