2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 14

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 64.284 32.108 3.608
Miami 0.0 16.114 42.872 41.014
Buffalo 0.0 19.602 25.02 55.378

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 87.96 12.04 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 5.206 36.378 55.376 3.04
Pittsburgh 6.834 50.784 36.132 6.25
Cleveland 0.0 0.798 8.492 90.71

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 92.982 7.018 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 7.018 92.982 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 94.524 5.476
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 5.476 94.524

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 97.266 2.734 0.0
Oakland 0.0 2.734 76.274 20.992
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 20.992 79.008

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 48.846 35.5 15.654 0.0
Washington 30.556 35.358 33.1 0.986
Dallas 20.598 29.142 50.26 0.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.986 99.014

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 86.278 10.734 2.988 0.0
Chicago 11.53 69.882 18.588 0.0
Minnesota 2.192 19.384 78.424 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 61.252 28.756 9.992
New Orleans 0.0 28.756 33.294 37.95
Carolina 0.0 9.992 37.95 52.058

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 87.496 12.302 0.202 0.0
Seattle 12.37 77.43 10.2 0.0
St Louis 0.134 10.268 89.314 0.284
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.284 99.716

Generated: Wed Dec 12 01:10:07 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 69.83 17.998 5.154 0.0 7.018 0.0 100.0
New England 20.52 30.164 38.144 11.172 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 8.464 43.308 38.734 9.494 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.878 2.772 3.006 0.362 78.048 12.7 97.766
Baltimore 0.308 5.758 14.962 66.932 2.442 9.598 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.834 5.884 40.942 53.66
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.206 5.24 29.142 39.588
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.368 3.818 5.186
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.086 1.086
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.054 1.054
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.034 1.034
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.626 0.626
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 80.506 12.76 5.168 1.566 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 12.31 54.352 18.664 2.17 10.164 1.944 99.604
Green Bay 5.962 18.26 42.636 19.42 2.556 5.672 94.506
NY Giants 0.73 5.206 17.448 25.462 12.316 13.95 75.112
Seattle 0.414 7.658 3.608 0.69 49.546 20.06 81.976
Chicago 0.078 1.71 6.904 2.838 16.866 30.26 58.656
Washington 0.0 0.052 3.876 26.628 3.818 12.45 46.824
Dallas 0.0 0.002 1.148 19.448 0.65 4.424 25.672
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.506 1.686 1.032 5.19 8.414
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.042 0.092 3.018 5.346 8.498
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.68 0.714
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.024
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 12 01:10:07 EST 2012

2 Responses to “2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 14”

  1. Coronel Chorizo says:

    Baltimore has not a 100% playoff chance. A tie on Cin-Pit, while Bal lose out and both Pitt and winning out would eliminate them.

  2. admin says:

    This is correct. My software does not include the possibility of of future ties in making forecasts.

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