Archive for September, 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 3

Monday, September 24th, 2007

Here are the predictions after week 3.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 95.72 3.94 0.32 0.02
NY Jets 3.18 61.42 25.0 10.4
Miami 0.7 19.0 42.18 38.12
Buffalo 0.4 15.64 32.5 51.46

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 51.3 30.86 15.5 2.34
Baltimore 36.16 40.24 19.24 4.36
Cincinnati 11.64 24.52 47.54 16.3
Cleveland 0.9 4.38 17.72 77.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 74.58 17.9 6.16 1.36
Tennessee 9.58 33.06 31.46 25.9
Jacksonville 11.48 29.36 33.28 25.88
Houston 4.36 19.68 29.1 46.86

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.36 30.76 11.5 3.38
San Diego 32.9 37.72 21.28 8.1
Kansas City 10.34 21.8 40.68 27.18
Oakland 2.4 9.72 26.54 61.34

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 78.08 15.04 5.36 1.52
Washington 12.12 38.4 30.8 18.68
NY Giants 4.76 25.32 31.72 38.2
Philadelphia 5.04 21.24 32.12 41.6

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 62.36 23.72 10.94 2.98
Chicago 20.12 36.24 29.5 14.14
Detroit 15.24 30.78 36.06 17.92
Minnesota 2.28 9.26 23.5 64.96

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 56.78 25.58 13.34 4.3
Tampa Bay 25.44 35.82 25.56 13.18
New Orleans 13.64 25.42 35.14 25.8
Atlanta 4.14 13.18 25.96 56.72

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 47.08 31.94 17.58 3.4
Seattle 38.72 35.44 19.76 6.08
Arizona 12.9 26.12 42.62 18.36
St Louis 1.3 6.5 20.04 72.16

Generated: Tue Sep 25 00:04:17 EDT 2007

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 39.16 26.54 18.9 11.12 0.7 0.86 97.28
Indianapolis 27.66 22.84 15.08 9.0 8.1 6.78 89.46
Pittsburgh 11.92 14.66 15.04 9.68 12.38 9.36 73.04
Baltimore 8.64 10.3 10.34 6.88 17.7 12.24 66.1
Denver 4.64 9.26 15.88 24.58 4.78 6.2 65.34
Jacksonville 2.12 3.46 3.56 2.34 13.76 12.76 38.0
San Diego 1.6 4.6 8.18 18.52 4.8 6.88 44.58
Tennessee 1.68 2.68 2.88 2.34 13.62 12.76 35.96
Cincinnati 1.56 2.86 4.1 3.12 8.86 9.96 30.46
Houston 0.6 1.16 1.62 0.98 6.88 9.16 20.4
Kansas City 0.2 0.8 2.34 7.0 1.94 3.26 15.54
NY Jets 0.16 0.44 1.24 1.34 4.26 4.88 12.32
Oakland 0.04 0.12 0.28 1.96 0.62 1.6 4.62
Miami 0.02 0.16 0.12 0.4 0.78 1.38 2.86
Buffalo 0.0 0.08 0.12 0.2 0.24 0.48 1.12
Cleveland 0.0 0.04 0.32 0.54 0.58 1.44 2.92

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 45.24 18.68 10.26 3.9 8.64 4.94 91.66
Green Bay 17.8 19.12 15.96 9.48 8.3 6.54 77.2
Carolina 9.42 13.66 15.22 18.48 4.88 5.28 66.94
San Francisco 7.56 12.4 13.18 13.94 7.04 7.52 61.64
Seattle 5.5 9.38 11.58 12.26 8.2 7.94 54.86
Washington 3.62 4.04 2.92 1.54 16.44 12.92 41.48
Chicago 2.06 5.66 6.64 5.76 7.72 8.76 36.6
Tampa Bay 2.08 4.84 6.5 12.02 5.0 6.2 36.64
Detroit 2.2 3.34 5.3 4.4 6.14 7.44 28.82
Arizona 1.22 3.0 3.82 4.86 4.32 5.12 22.34
Philadelphia 1.14 1.44 1.46 1.0 8.38 8.36 21.78
NY Giants 1.04 1.4 1.3 1.02 8.54 8.48 21.78
New Orleans 0.84 2.16 3.72 6.92 3.38 5.42 22.44
Atlanta 0.12 0.44 1.08 2.5 1.12 1.9 7.16
St Louis 0.1 0.1 0.22 0.88 0.4 0.88 2.58
Minnesota 0.06 0.34 0.84 1.04 1.5 2.3 6.08

Generated: Tue Sep 25 00:04:17 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 2

Tuesday, September 18th, 2007

Here are the predictions after week 2.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 96.74 2.96 0.22 0.08
NY Jets 1.34 42.52 32.58 23.56
Miami 1.42 33.24 34.58 30.76
Buffalo 0.5 21.28 32.62 45.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 44.18 29.06 19.94 6.82
Cincinnati 28.78 31.82 27.86 11.54
Baltimore 24.26 29.68 30.42 15.64
Cleveland 2.78 9.44 21.78 66.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 86.8 10.36 2.4 0.44
Jacksonville 7.92 40.94 30.82 20.32
Tennessee 2.88 28.2 35.8 33.12
Houston 2.4 20.5 30.98 46.12

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 60.46 35.62 3.72 0.2
San Diego 37.8 54.3 7.18 0.72
Kansas City 1.62 8.64 64.46 25.28
Oakland 0.12 1.44 24.64 73.8

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 65.36 26.88 6.52 1.24
Washington 29.48 48.6 16.3 5.62
Philadelphia 3.5 13.74 45.4 37.36
NY Giants 1.66 10.78 31.78 55.78

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 40.74 28.98 20.0 10.28
Green Bay 36.32 31.46 20.88 11.34
Detroit 17.7 27.92 33.64 20.74
Minnesota 5.24 11.64 25.48 57.64

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 72.82 16.8 7.48 2.9
New Orleans 11.06 30.72 30.98 27.24
Tampa Bay 8.84 29.1 32.32 29.74
Atlanta 7.28 23.38 29.22 40.12

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 63.42 23.84 10.42 2.32
Seattle 22.82 36.38 27.5 13.3
Arizona 10.9 27.64 37.42 24.04
St Louis 2.86 12.14 24.66 60.34

Generated: Mon Sep 17 23:51:00 EDT 2007

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 36.22 24.64 18.98 16.9 0.6 0.56 97.9
Indianapolis 26.88 21.4 20.64 17.88 3.06 3.02 92.88
Denver 16.32 18.26 15.62 10.26 17.72 8.48 86.66
San Diego 6.46 10.7 10.58 10.06 20.28 12.66 70.74
Pittsburgh 5.86 10.5 12.6 15.22 11.38 11.74 67.3
Cincinnati 3.6 6.24 8.88 10.06 12.38 14.48 55.64
Baltimore 3.32 5.02 7.38 8.54 10.88 13.92 49.06
Jacksonville 0.74 1.66 2.2 3.32 8.28 9.66 25.86
Tennessee 0.14 0.42 0.96 1.36 4.5 5.92 13.3
Cleveland 0.14 0.24 0.66 1.74 2.28 4.58 9.64
Miami 0.1 0.24 0.26 0.82 1.58 2.9 5.9
Houston 0.08 0.32 0.58 1.42 2.98 4.84 10.22
NY Jets 0.08 0.22 0.2 0.84 1.88 3.14 6.36
Kansas City 0.04 0.14 0.38 1.06 1.66 2.62 5.9
Buffalo 0.02 0.0 0.06 0.42 0.46 1.06 2.02
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.08 0.42 0.62

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 29.1 17.4 12.02 6.84 12.34 6.92 84.62
Carolina 21.38 18.5 17.8 15.14 3.74 4.06 80.62
San Francisco 10.42 14.7 16.32 21.98 3.94 4.96 72.32
Chicago 10.36 11.54 11.32 7.52 10.34 9.3 60.38
Washington 9.46 9.02 6.26 4.74 19.1 12.78 61.36
Green Bay 8.66 10.24 9.98 7.44 12.76 10.82 59.9
Detroit 3.54 4.52 4.98 4.66 8.08 9.62 35.4
Seattle 2.3 4.44 6.48 9.6 5.26 7.0 35.08
Arizona 1.08 1.6 2.82 5.4 3.44 4.62 18.96
New Orleans 0.96 2.42 3.36 4.32 4.4 6.42 21.88
Tampa Bay 0.78 1.64 2.62 3.8 3.54 5.4 17.78
Minnesota 0.8 1.14 1.72 1.58 3.24 4.28 12.76
Philadelphia 0.54 1.04 0.82 1.1 3.94 5.74 13.18
Atlanta 0.44 1.32 2.34 3.18 2.34 3.42 13.04
St Louis 0.1 0.18 0.56 2.02 0.96 1.16 4.98
NY Giants 0.08 0.3 0.6 0.68 2.58 3.5 7.74

Generated: Mon Sep 17 23:51:00 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 1

Tuesday, September 11th, 2007

Here are the predictions following the week 1 games.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 90.98 7.18 1.7 0.14
NY Jets 3.74 40.58 34.16 21.52
Miami 3.74 35.54 35.36 25.36
Buffalo 1.54 16.7 28.78 52.98

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 45.22 31.5 20.38 2.9
Pittsburgh 32.48 34.68 29.16 3.68
Baltimore 21.52 30.82 38.22 9.44
Cleveland 0.78 3.0 12.24 83.98

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 75.86 16.96 5.66 1.52
Tennessee 10.36 34.46 31.9 23.28
Jacksonville 8.88 29.08 33.4 28.64
Houston 4.9 19.5 29.04 46.56

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 57.84 33.72 7.62 0.82
Denver 36.94 47.54 13.98 1.54
Kansas City 4.76 16.5 60.32 18.42
Oakland 0.46 2.24 18.08 79.22

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 53.36 24.48 14.88 7.28
Philadelphia 18.54 27.02 28.66 25.78
Washington 17.82 26.46 27.22 28.5
NY Giants 10.28 22.04 29.24 38.44

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 53.58 26.62 13.62 6.18
Green Bay 23.56 31.02 25.48 19.94
Minnesota 12.32 22.48 30.34 34.86
Detroit 10.54 19.88 30.56 39.02

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 41.72 31.08 19.04 8.16
New Orleans 36.56 32.94 21.48 9.02
Atlanta 17.4 24.62 34.78 23.2
Tampa Bay 4.32 11.36 24.7 59.62

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 48.14 28.38 15.4 8.08
San Francisco 33.2 31.92 23.5 11.38
Arizona 9.08 19.66 31.5 39.76
St Louis 9.58 20.04 29.6 40.78

Generated: Tue Sep 11 01:12:09 EDT 2007

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 28.3 21.36 20.06 21.26 1.28 1.72 93.98
Indianapolis 19.9 18.34 18.52 19.1 4.18 4.34 84.38
San Diego 17.9 17.0 12.64 10.3 14.12 8.42 80.38
Cincinnati 10.74 12.7 12.02 9.76 12.44 11.04 68.7
Denver 10.98 10.42 8.72 6.82 21.34 12.34 70.62
Pittsburgh 5.94 8.3 9.84 8.4 12.02 12.62 57.12
Baltimore 3.22 5.4 6.68 6.22 11.04 12.42 44.98
Tennessee 0.8 1.88 3.12 4.56 4.9 7.06 22.32
Jacksonville 0.66 1.32 2.86 4.04 4.38 6.92 20.18
Kansas City 0.44 0.94 1.5 1.88 4.1 5.9 14.76
Miami 0.44 0.52 0.92 1.86 2.86 4.44 11.04
Houston 0.3 0.84 1.4 2.36 2.52 3.84 11.26
NY Jets 0.3 0.7 1.08 1.66 3.62 5.8 13.16
Buffalo 0.04 0.12 0.34 1.04 0.48 1.2 3.22
Cleveland 0.04 0.08 0.2 0.46 0.38 1.1 2.26
Oakland 0.0 0.08 0.1 0.28 0.34 0.84 1.64

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 23.24 14.7 9.72 5.7 11.62 7.32 72.3
Chicago 16.02 14.08 13.28 10.2 6.46 6.52 66.56
Carolina 12.7 12.0 10.54 6.48 9.36 7.9 58.98
New Orleans 9.84 9.3 9.92 7.5 9.3 8.36 54.22
Seattle 7.86 10.86 11.82 17.6 3.84 5.2 57.18
Philadelphia 5.7 5.06 4.58 3.2 10.2 9.78 38.52
Washington 5.06 5.44 4.18 3.14 10.6 9.22 37.64
Green Bay 4.78 5.68 6.88 6.22 7.18 7.36 38.1
San Francisco 4.42 6.56 8.3 13.92 4.22 5.56 42.98
Atlanta 3.02 4.3 5.16 4.92 5.26 6.3 28.96
NY Giants 2.56 3.2 2.5 2.02 9.38 8.38 28.04
Minnesota 1.64 2.86 4.0 3.82 4.54 5.76 22.62
Detroit 1.34 2.62 2.8 3.78 3.62 4.48 18.64
Arizona 0.72 1.38 2.68 4.3 1.78 2.86 13.72
St Louis 0.56 1.24 2.58 5.2 1.22 2.26 13.06
Tampa Bay 0.54 0.72 1.06 2.0 1.42 2.74 8.48

Generated: Tue Sep 11 01:12:09 EDT 2007

2007 Preseason Playoff Predictions

Saturday, September 8th, 2007

Here are the 2oo7 Preseason Playoff predictions. The interactive software is available at www.nfl-forecast.com. So far the software and algorithms are pretty much the same as last year. However, I’m hoping to implement an improved prediction algorithm in the near future.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 80.16 14.94 4.12 0.78
NY Jets 11.28 40.48 30.9 17.34
Miami 6.1 29.08 35.52 29.3
Buffalo 2.46 15.5 29.46 52.58

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 38.96 30.58 23.16 7.3
Cincinnati 34.02 31.3 26.36 8.32
Pittsburgh 24.86 31.08 31.54 12.52
Cleveland 2.16 7.04 18.94 71.86

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 65.6 25.9 6.9 1.6
Jacksonville 26.94 47.34 18.82 6.9
Tennessee 5.54 17.46 45.28 31.72
Houston 1.92 9.3 29.0 59.78

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 54.36 31.82 11.78 2.04
Denver 36.14 41.56 18.84 3.46
Kansas City 8.96 21.9 49.3 19.84
Oakland 0.54 4.72 20.08 74.66

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 35.3 29.7 22.62 12.38
Dallas 36.92 29.76 20.62 12.7
NY Giants 18.54 24.4 29.2 27.86
Washington 9.24 16.14 27.56 47.06

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 74.96 17.32 6.1 1.62
Green Bay 13.5 37.46 29.52 19.52
Minnesota 7.36 26.52 33.3 32.82
Detroit 4.18 18.7 31.08 46.04

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 38.86 28.48 20.58 12.08
Carolina 32.58 29.16 23.06 15.2
Atlanta 19.84 24.72 30.28 25.16
Tampa Bay 8.72 17.64 26.08 47.56

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 40.56 27.6 18.98 12.86
San Francisco 23.4 24.84 26.14 25.62
St Louis 19.9 26.06 27.1 26.94
Arizona 16.14 21.5 27.78 34.58

Generated: Sat Sep 08 12:45:13 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 26.12 20.46 17.52 16.06 3.48 3.56 87.2
Indianapolis 18.46 16.24 15.34 15.56 6.68 6.76 79.04
San Diego 18.2 14.66 12.24 9.26 13.34 8.8 76.5
Denver 10.22 9.82 9.12 6.98 16.72 11.14 64.0
Baltimore 7.74 10.34 10.6 10.28 8.6 9.38 56.94
Cincinnati 6.86 8.16 9.38 9.62 9.0 10.0 53.02
Jacksonville 4.64 6.68 7.2 8.42 10.9 9.52 47.36
Pittsburgh 3.68 5.94 7.44 7.8 8.2 9.12 42.18
Kansas City 1.48 2.08 2.68 2.72 6.28 7.88 23.12
NY Jets 1.34 2.34 3.0 4.6 6.38 7.14 24.8
Miami 0.72 1.24 1.84 2.3 3.7 5.34 15.14
Tennessee 0.3 1.08 1.54 2.62 2.42 4.04 12.0
Buffalo 0.16 0.26 0.7 1.34 1.64 2.42 6.52
Cleveland 0.04 0.4 0.54 1.18 1.12 2.1 5.38
Houston 0.02 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.84 1.6 4.36
Oakland 0.02 0.1 0.26 0.16 0.7 1.2 2.44

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 23.54 18.8 16.88 15.74 3.52 3.34 81.82
Dallas 13.72 10.04 8.12 5.04 12.3 9.78 59.0
Philadelphia 12.18 9.78 8.02 5.32 12.16 9.62 57.08
New Orleans 10.86 10.94 9.84 7.22 9.16 8.1 56.12
Carolina 8.96 10.08 7.44 6.1 9.62 8.64 50.84
Seattle 7.32 8.9 10.66 13.68 4.66 5.92 51.14
NY Giants 4.84 5.56 4.62 3.52 9.46 9.24 37.24
Atlanta 4.4 5.14 5.46 4.84 7.42 7.74 35.0
San Francisco 2.8 5.16 6.5 8.94 3.86 4.72 31.98
Washington 2.4 2.3 2.38 2.16 5.88 6.6 21.72
St Louis 2.0 4.0 5.68 8.22 4.78 5.14 29.82
Green Bay 2.1 2.7 3.96 4.74 5.36 5.7 24.56
Arizona 2.04 2.9 4.6 6.6 2.74 4.42 23.3
Tampa Bay 1.76 2.04 2.52 2.4 3.94 5.32 17.98
Minnesota 0.7 1.08 2.24 3.34 3.34 3.4 14.1
Detroit 0.38 0.58 1.08 2.14 1.8 2.32 8.3

Generated: Sat Sep 08 12:45:13 EDT 2007