Archive for September, 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 3

Thursday, September 29th, 2011

The site is up and running for 2011. Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 31.472 33.756 30.754 4.018
Buffalo 35.894 32.714 26.522 4.87
NY Jets 31.916 30.434 31.442 6.208
Miami 0.718 3.096 11.282 84.904

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 71.536 21.458 5.444 1.562
Pittsburgh 20.872 48.964 20.742 9.422
Cincinnati 3.97 15.366 37.874 42.79
Cleveland 3.622 14.212 35.94 46.226

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 51.426 36.22 10.698 1.656
Tennessee 42.792 42.026 12.43 2.752
Jacksonville 4.854 16.078 50.65 28.418
Indianapolis 0.928 5.676 26.222 67.174

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 73.668 19.95 5.356 1.026
San Diego 18.09 43.73 29.23 8.95
Denver 6.818 28.326 41.278 23.578
Kansas City 1.424 7.994 24.136 66.446

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 55.724 26.716 13.304 4.256
Washington 27.53 38.56 23.726 10.184
NY Giants 13.452 25.692 41.004 19.852
Philadelphia 3.294 9.032 21.966 65.708

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 57.436 36.93 5.034 0.6
Detroit 40.314 49.508 9.184 0.994
Chicago 1.912 10.772 59.156 28.16
Minnesota 0.338 2.79 26.626 70.246

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 87.8 9.884 1.954 0.362
Tampa Bay 7.22 46.23 32.98 13.57
Carolina 4.084 32.364 38.14 25.412
Atlanta 0.896 11.522 26.926 60.656

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 42.298 29.448 18.892 9.362
Arizona 34.124 30.386 22.01 13.48
St Louis 16.412 23.844 29.734 30.01
Seattle 7.166 16.322 29.364 47.148

Generated: Wed Sep 28 23:59:03 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 25.816 19.912 16.178 9.63 7.43 5.738 84.704
Houston 14.34 13.724 14.412 8.95 10.25 9.436 71.112
Buffalo 12.838 11.252 8.096 3.708 15.318 12.908 64.12
Tennessee 11.71 11.92 11.686 7.476 11.978 10.512 65.282
New England 9.794 9.948 7.502 4.228 14.864 13.862 60.198
Oakland 9.074 12.536 18.304 33.754 1.384 2.522 77.574
NY Jets 8.37 9.69 8.316 5.54 12.65 13.204 57.77
Pittsburgh 5.916 5.886 5.532 3.538 15.77 12.57 49.212
San Diego 0.748 1.758 3.764 11.82 1.676 3.144 22.91
Cleveland 0.45 0.872 1.234 1.066 2.78 4.484 10.886
Cincinnati 0.446 0.884 1.288 1.352 2.592 4.212 10.774
Jacksonville 0.292 0.88 1.608 2.074 1.716 3.414 9.984
Denver 0.152 0.526 1.332 4.808 0.92 2.088 9.826
Miami 0.026 0.106 0.312 0.274 0.318 0.972 2.008
Indianapolis 0.024 0.074 0.268 0.562 0.266 0.678 1.872
Kansas City 0.0040 0.032 0.168 1.22 0.088 0.256 1.768

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 30.41 17.452 8.528 1.046 20.75 10.26 88.446
New Orleans 20.834 26.882 33.118 6.966 1.342 2.31 91.452
Dallas 19.15 20.374 14.15 2.05 13.142 12.546 81.412
Detroit 17.524 13.014 8.564 1.212 26.28 14.088 80.682
Washington 7.226 10.664 8.432 1.208 17.158 18.298 62.986
NY Giants 2.894 4.572 4.952 1.034 10.342 15.312 39.106
San Francisco 0.46 1.57 5.686 34.582 0.272 1.026 43.596
Tampa Bay 0.474 1.466 3.644 1.636 2.55 6.012 15.782
Arizona 0.292 1.374 5.314 27.144 0.302 1.336 35.762
Philadelphia 0.252 0.992 1.694 0.356 2.384 5.778 11.456
Chicago 0.242 0.55 0.94 0.18 3.252 6.592 11.756
Carolina 0.122 0.498 2.13 1.334 1.142 2.976 8.202
St Louis 0.066 0.286 1.64 14.42 0.094 0.518 17.024
Minnesota 0.042 0.094 0.148 0.054 0.58 1.504 2.422
Seattle 0.0020 0.13 0.548 6.486 0.092 0.454 7.712
Atlanta 0.01 0.082 0.512 0.292 0.318 0.99 2.204

Generated: Wed Sep 28 23:59:03 EDT 2011