Archive for November, 2008

2008 NFL Playoff predictions after week 12.

Tuesday, November 25th, 2008

 To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats. Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 64.86 22.26 11.48 1.4
Miami 24.22 37.3 32.04 6.44
New England 9.46 35.64 42.94 11.96
Buffalo 1.46 4.8 13.54 80.2

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 91.82 8.18 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 8.18 91.78 0.04 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.04 93.8 6.16
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 6.16 93.84

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 99.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.5 99.4 0.1 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.02 58.5 41.48
Jacksonville 0.0 0.08 41.4 58.52

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 56.36 42.18 1.46 0.0
Denver 43.4 55.5 1.1 0.0
Oakland 0.22 2.28 92.7 4.8
Kansas City 0.02 0.04 4.74 95.2

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 92.62 6.2 1.18 0.0
Washington 6.6 70.68 17.86 4.86
Dallas 0.74 15.68 55.94 27.64
Philadelphia 0.04 7.44 25.02 67.5

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 66.98 21.2 11.82 0.0
Green Bay 15.6 42.54 41.86 0.0
Minnesota 17.42 36.26 46.32 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 45.38 28.82 19.62 6.18
Atlanta 20.48 33.86 32.48 13.18
Tampa Bay 26.62 25.56 26.68 21.14
New Orleans 7.52 11.76 21.22 59.5

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 52.76 41.3 5.94
Seattle 0.0 39.2 47.54 13.26
St Louis 0.0 8.04 11.16 80.8

Generated: Tue Nov 25 18:30:41 EST 2008  AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 81.32 13.8 4.38 0.0 0.24 0.16 99.9
Pittsburgh 13.58 49.6 28.52 0.12 1.08 3.04 95.94
NY Jets 4.64 25.48 33.9 0.84 4.68 13.34 82.88
New England 0.08 4.6 4.76 0.02 5.34 18.54 33.34
Baltimore 0.08 3.96 4.12 0.02 8.54 31.62 48.34
Miami 0.0 2.24 21.92 0.06 3.0 18.08 45.3
Indianapolis 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 76.74 12.66 89.9
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.02 56.34 0.0 0.06 56.42
Denver 0.0 0.02 1.06 42.32 0.0 0.04 43.44
Buffalo 0.0 0.1 1.32 0.04 0.38 2.44 4.28
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.22 0.0 0.0 0.22
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 72.78 18.46 1.16 0.22 3.78 2.18 98.58
Carolina 17.18 25.66 2.42 0.12 13.24 16.08 74.7
Tampa Bay 3.48 17.74 5.18 0.22 8.2 14.72 49.54
Washington 4.22 2.08 0.28 0.02 48.08 20.36 75.04
Arizona 0.96 16.72 58.9 23.42 0.0 0.0 100.0
Atlanta 0.98 14.02 5.3 0.18 15.36 19.72 55.56
Chicago 0.02 2.06 18.1 46.8 0.02 0.28 67.28
New Orleans 0.04 2.66 3.92 0.9 1.12 7.3 15.94
Dallas 0.28 0.22 0.22 0.02 8.34 15.06 24.14
Minnesota 0.06 0.36 3.46 13.54 0.1 0.44 17.96
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 1.04 14.56 0.0 0.0 15.6
Philadelphia 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.0 1.76 3.86 5.66
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 25 18:30:41 EST 2008 

2008 Playoff predictions after week 11

Tuesday, November 18th, 2008

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.comSingle game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats 

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Miami 60.92 30.42 7.56 1.1
NY Jets 34.18 46.5 16.5 2.82
New England 3.82 15.66 52.0 28.52
Buffalo 1.08 7.42 23.94 67.56

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 94.02 5.84 0.14 0.0
Baltimore 5.98 92.18 1.84 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 1.96 94.84 3.2
Cincinnati 0.0 0.02 3.18 96.8

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 99.78 0.22 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.22 96.66 3.1 0.02
Jacksonville 0.0 2.94 63.04 34.02
Houston 0.0 0.18 33.86 65.96

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 63.36 36.52 0.12 0.0
San Diego 36.56 62.96 0.44 0.04
Oakland 0.06 0.42 72.62 26.9
Kansas City 0.02 0.1 26.82 73.06

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 80.46 14.36 4.06 1.12
Washington 11.52 48.3 27.1 13.08
Philadelphia 5.54 23.24 33.52 37.7
Dallas 2.48 14.1 35.32 48.1

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 52.02 28.94 19.04 0.0
Green Bay 33.72 43.7 22.58 0.0
Minnesota 14.26 27.36 58.38 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 51.4 29.44 15.64 3.52
Tampa Bay 32.72 35.9 22.48 8.9
Atlanta 13.14 26.5 41.72 18.64
New Orleans 2.74 8.16 20.16 68.94

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 50.52 39.82 9.66
Seattle 0.0 37.7 46.1 16.2
St Louis 0.0 11.78 14.08 74.14

Generated: Tue Nov 18 21:18:05 EST 2008

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 93.44 5.22 1.1 0.02 0.2 0.0 99.98
Pittsburgh 5.3 57.32 27.82 3.58 1.22 1.76 97.0
Miami 0.28 21.46 37.24 1.94 12.04 14.72 87.68
NY Jets 0.88 9.92 18.1 5.28 14.0 21.6 69.78
Denver 0.0 1.94 8.46 52.96 0.56 2.48 66.4
Baltimore 0.0 1.98 3.0 1.0 9.36 17.44 32.78
New England 0.02 1.82 1.66 0.32 4.44 10.68 18.94
Indianapolis 0.08 0.12 0.02 0.0 54.76 20.9 75.88
San Diego 0.0 0.08 1.76 34.72 1.38 4.7 42.64
Buffalo 0.0 0.14 0.84 0.1 1.92 5.12 8.12
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.0 0.0 0.06
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.42 0.5
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.12 0.14
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.08
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 48.32 21.88 9.12 1.14 9.12 4.78 94.36
Carolina 21.9 20.9 7.94 0.66 12.38 12.38 76.16
Arizona 14.14 22.5 47.0 16.36 0.0 0.0 100.0
Tampa Bay 7.24 17.06 8.1 0.32 12.46 16.0 61.18
Washington 5.18 4.68 1.48 0.18 35.18 18.8 65.5
Philadelphia 1.64 2.74 0.98 0.18 13.72 16.3 35.56
Atlanta 1.02 6.82 5.08 0.22 7.68 12.86 33.68
Dallas 0.5 0.92 1.02 0.04 8.54 14.34 25.36
Chicago 0.02 1.08 11.16 39.76 0.1 0.68 52.8
Green Bay 0.02 0.4 3.52 29.78 0.04 0.38 34.14
Minnesota 0.02 0.4 2.84 11.0 0.1 0.5 14.86
New Orleans 0.0 0.62 1.76 0.36 0.68 2.98 6.4
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 18 21:18:05 EST 2008

2008 Playoff predictions after week 10

Wednesday, November 12th, 2008

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com

Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Miami 53.2 27.82 13.16 5.82
NY Jets 25.6 27.6 26.68 20.12
New England 12.14 24.26 31.76 31.84
Buffalo 9.06 20.32 28.4 42.22

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 82.36 17.6 0.04 0.0
Baltimore 17.6 81.96 0.44 0.0
Cleveland 0.04 0.42 92.58 6.96
Cincinnati 0.0 0.02 6.94 93.04

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 98.94 1.06 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 1.04 87.22 10.56 1.18
Jacksonville 0.02 9.64 64.9 25.44
Houston 0.0 2.08 24.54 73.38

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 68.0 31.36 0.62 0.02
Denver 31.9 65.56 2.46 0.08
Oakland 0.1 2.7 74.0 23.2
Kansas City 0.0 0.38 22.92 76.7

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 58.96 30.12 9.72 1.2
Washington 34.2 44.56 17.94 3.3
Philadelphia 6.46 21.58 54.36 17.6
Dallas 0.38 3.74 17.98 77.9

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 75.96 16.3 7.74 0.0
Minnesota 14.22 51.88 33.9 0.0
Green Bay 9.82 31.82 58.34 0.02
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.02 99.98

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 51.94 29.02 16.08 2.96
Atlanta 26.24 33.8 30.68 9.28
Tampa Bay 20.14 30.48 35.0 14.38
New Orleans 1.68 6.7 18.24 73.38

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 99.74 0.26 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.2 40.56 42.9 16.34
San Francisco 0.04 43.58 37.66 18.72
St Louis 0.02 15.6 19.44 64.94

Generated: Tue Nov 11 23:27:04 EST 2008

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 90.76 6.16 1.74 0.28 0.84 0.16 99.94
Pittsburgh 5.56 41.34 25.78 9.68 3.08 4.78 90.22
Miami 1.1 21.28 28.68 2.14 9.6 13.58 76.38
NY Jets 1.18 8.82 12.24 3.36 9.26 13.98 48.84
Baltimore 0.18 7.86 6.9 2.66 14.02 18.56 50.18
New England 0.2 5.5 5.3 1.14 7.62 12.5 32.26
San Diego 0.14 4.32 11.9 51.64 1.1 2.02 71.12
Indianapolis 0.7 0.24 0.06 0.04 43.96 18.12 63.12
Buffalo 0.18 3.84 4.6 0.44 9.08 12.14 30.28
Denver 0.0 0.64 2.74 28.52 0.58 2.02 34.5
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.04 0.08 0.16
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.7 1.66 2.38
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.4 0.52
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 37.86 14.76 5.16 1.18 20.74 9.94 89.64
Washington 21.98 9.32 2.42 0.48 34.74 13.4 82.34
Carolina 20.2 25.46 5.7 0.58 11.64 12.82 76.4
Arizona 6.46 13.24 37.3 42.74 0.0 0.0 99.74
Atlanta 5.0 13.96 6.02 1.26 7.96 15.58 49.78
Tampa Bay 3.62 11.44 4.2 0.88 7.78 16.58 44.5
Chicago 2.0 6.44 30.64 36.88 0.18 0.7 76.84
Philadelphia 2.28 3.06 0.92 0.2 13.72 20.78 40.96
Minnesota 0.54 1.32 5.04 7.32 0.94 2.82 17.98
Dallas 0.06 0.14 0.14 0.04 2.02 4.4 6.8
New Orleans 0.0 0.6 0.74 0.34 0.28 2.78 4.74
Green Bay 0.0 0.26 1.72 7.84 0.0 0.2 10.02
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.0 0.04
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 11 23:27:04 EST 2008

2008 Playoff Predictions after week 9

Saturday, November 8th, 2008

I’ll be more regular updating the weekly predictions through out the remainder of the season.

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com

Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Miami 46.44 32.34 19.0 2.22
Buffalo 30.16 34.1 29.2 6.54
NY Jets 22.32 29.04 37.62 11.02
New England 1.08 4.52 14.18 80.22

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 93.86 6.12 0.02 0.0
Baltimore 6.14 90.98 2.84 0.04
Cleveland 0.0 2.88 92.02 5.1
Cincinnati 0.0 0.02 5.12 94.86

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 98.32 1.66 0.02 0.0
Indianapolis 1.62 77.56 16.8 4.02
Jacksonville 0.02 11.76 42.08 46.14
Houston 0.04 9.02 41.1 49.84

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 82.94 16.48 0.54 0.04
Denver 16.76 75.7 7.22 0.32
Oakland 0.3 7.18 79.46 13.06
Kansas City 0.0 0.64 12.78 86.58

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington 41.34 35.32 20.32 3.02
NY Giants 32.26 28.62 31.62 7.5
Philadelphia 25.58 32.78 33.62 8.02
Dallas 0.82 3.28 14.44 81.46

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 77.96 16.66 5.38 0.0
Green Bay 14.04 44.32 41.62 0.02
Minnesota 8.0 39.02 52.92 0.06
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.08 99.92

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 68.46 21.74 8.08 1.72
Tampa Bay 13.56 31.54 35.4 19.5
Atlanta 13.94 31.44 31.64 22.98
New Orleans 4.04 15.28 24.88 55.8

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 99.06 0.8 0.14 0.0
Seattle 0.48 32.02 38.54 28.96
St Louis 0.24 38.08 27.32 34.36
San Francisco 0.22 29.1 34.0 36.68

Generated: Sat Nov 08 21:54:09 EST 2008

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 68.88 21.78 6.66 1.0 1.16 0.3 99.78
Pittsburgh 26.24 42.98 17.18 7.46 2.42 1.66 97.94
Buffalo 2.22 10.58 16.6 0.76 21.96 17.7 69.82
Miami 0.82 12.28 31.2 2.14 16.72 16.14 79.3
NY Jets 0.96 5.32 12.34 3.7 13.56 16.64 52.52
San Diego 0.24 3.9 11.88 66.92 0.58 1.44 84.96
Baltimore 0.22 2.44 2.36 1.12 17.94 17.94 42.02
Indianapolis 0.42 0.5 0.42 0.28 22.12 19.56 43.3
Denver 0.0 0.08 0.78 15.9 0.66 1.96 19.38
New England 0.0 0.12 0.54 0.42 1.26 2.44 4.78
Houston 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.0 1.1 2.32 3.46
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.28 1.2 1.5
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.7 0.94
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Carolina 31.24 27.58 8.18 1.46 8.2 8.62 85.28
Washington 23.8 12.98 3.98 0.58 28.28 14.3 83.92
NY Giants 17.98 9.3 3.6 1.38 19.58 17.1 68.94
Philadelphia 11.38 9.12 3.96 1.12 23.84 18.5 67.92
Arizona 5.1 12.08 31.84 50.04 0.0 0.0 99.06
Chicago 4.32 11.66 32.7 29.28 0.32 1.02 79.3
Tampa Bay 3.04 6.48 3.12 0.92 7.7 14.36 35.62
Atlanta 2.36 7.46 3.26 0.86 7.2 12.94 34.08
New Orleans 0.26 1.68 1.3 0.8 1.66 5.26 10.96
Minnesota 0.28 0.64 2.8 4.28 1.5 3.04 12.54
Green Bay 0.1 0.7 4.98 8.26 0.14 0.72 14.9
Dallas 0.14 0.32 0.22 0.14 1.58 4.14 6.54
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.46 0.0 0.0 0.48
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.24
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.22 0.0 0.0 0.22
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Sat Nov 08 21:54:09 EST 2008