NFL playoff races and other musings

The 2009 NFL Seasons That Weren’t

admin — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 04:44:34 +0000

The phrase, “on any given Sunday,” embodies the idea that the outcome of any NFL game depends not only on the intrinsic strength of each team, but also on how well each team plays on that particular day and which team benefits more from the breaks. This random component is so pervasive that, according to a fascinating study published a few years ago by Doug Drinen, the strongest team in any particular NFL season is likely to win the Super Bowl only about 24% of the time.

We can consider the role of stochasticity in the just-completed regular season by assuming that the team efficiency ratings at the end of the season represent the “true” strength of each team. In order to avoid the effect of some teams giving less than a full effort in the final week of the season, I’ll use the week-17 team efficiency ratings, as recommended by Brian Burke. These ratings should be reasonable estimates of the “true” team strength because they are calculated from the statistics that are most highly correlated with winning and they are based on a large enough data set to have reasonable significance.

From the efficiency ratings, we can estimate the “true” odds of each game of the season, and then use these odds to simulate the entire NFL season 5,000 times. The results are given below:

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	68.96	27.66	3.06	0.32
NY Jets	28.98	58.08	10.72	2.22
Buffalo	1.3	8.78	50.28	39.64
Miami	0.76	5.48	35.94	57.82

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	54.94	30.0	14.94	0.12
Baltimore	29.72	39.74	30.1	0.44
Cincinnati	15.34	30.16	53.82	0.68
Cleveland	0.0	0.1	1.14	98.76

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	78.46	17.02	3.94	0.58
Houston	15.62	48.02	24.2	12.16
Tennessee	4.02	20.66	39.32	36.0
Jacksonville	1.9	14.3	32.54	51.26

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	78.88	21.08	0.04	0.0
Denver	21.08	77.58	1.24	0.1
Kansas City	0.02	1.0	62.74	36.24
Oakland	0.02	0.34	35.98	63.66

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Philadelphia	47.86	31.6	16.52	4.02
Dallas	35.68	36.9	21.82	5.6
NY Giants	15.02	25.08	41.34	18.56
Washington	1.44	6.42	20.32	71.82

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	66.86	30.2	2.92	0.02
Minnesota	31.46	59.6	8.72	0.22
Chicago	1.66	10.04	81.82	6.48
Detroit	0.02	0.16	6.54	93.28

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	94.9	4.32	0.74	0.04
Carolina	2.74	45.64	38.52	13.1
Atlanta	2.22	42.04	40.3	15.44
Tampa Bay	0.14	8.0	20.44	71.42

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	65.38	28.28	5.76	0.58
San Francisco	29.96	50.6	16.94	2.5
Seattle	4.48	18.34	57.46	19.72
St Louis	0.18	2.78	19.84	77.2

Generated: Wed Jan 06 22:42:25 EST 2010

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	34.56	21.82	14.4	7.68	8.62	5.18	92.26
San Diego	29.32	23.68	15.58	10.3	8.82	4.92	92.62
New England	10.92	14.56	20.0	23.48	5.76	5.88	80.6
Pittsburgh	9.64	13.62	16.2	15.48	7.96	8.72	71.62
Denver	4.06	6.02	5.74	5.26	17.56	15.32	53.96
Houston	3.76	5.0	4.08	2.78	18.3	15.06	48.98
Baltimore	3.32	5.56	9.0	11.84	8.56	11.0	49.28
NY Jets	2.72	5.38	8.62	12.26	9.52	10.62	49.12
Cincinnati	1.0	2.74	4.28	7.32	6.12	9.14	30.6
Tennessee	0.58	1.24	1.06	1.14	4.68	7.54	16.24
Jacksonville	0.1	0.32	0.72	0.76	3.46	5.08	10.44
Buffalo	0.02	0.06	0.2	1.02	0.48	0.92	2.7
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.12	0.64	0.16	0.54	1.46
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.08	0.1
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.0	0.02
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	33.96	26.3	26.9	7.74	0.74	0.76	96.4
Green Bay	20.46	21.58	19.52	5.3	11.12	9.9	87.88
Philadelphia	19.3	15.52	11.0	2.04	21.6	14.02	83.48
Dallas	12.32	13.08	8.72	1.56	24.46	17.6	77.74
Minnesota	7.04	10.18	10.82	3.42	18.2	16.92	66.58
NY Giants	4.2	5.6	4.6	0.62	15.54	19.64	50.2
Arizona	1.88	4.94	11.12	47.44	0.62	1.46	67.46
San Francisco	0.22	1.3	3.42	25.02	0.72	2.66	33.34
Carolina	0.18	0.48	1.2	0.88	1.7	4.16	8.6
Washington	0.18	0.38	0.64	0.24	2.98	6.08	10.5
Atlanta	0.14	0.28	0.94	0.86	1.44	3.18	6.84
Chicago	0.12	0.34	0.8	0.4	0.78	2.92	5.36
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.22	4.26	0.06	0.36	4.9
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.02	0.1	0.02	0.04	0.28	0.46
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.18	0.0	0.02	0.2
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.04	0.06

Generated: Wed Jan 06 22:42:25 EST 2010

As NFL seasons go, this one had relatively few rare outcomes. The favored team won 5 of the 8 divisions. Of the three favorites that did not win their division, only Pittsburgh failed to qualify as a wild card. With an intrinsic 70% chance of making the playoffs, this disappointing follow up to their championship season of a year ago was a bitter pill for Steelers fans to swallow. Cincinnati’s intrinsic chances of winning their division were only 15%. They should consider themselves fortunate. Likewise, Minnesota not only managed to win their division over favored Green Bay, but also captured the 2 seed in the NFC. Their season ranked in the top 15% outcomes available to them. Miami, with only a 1% chance of making the playoffs, was competing for a playoff spot in the final week of the season. Another interesting observation is that once every 100 years or so, some truly bottom dwelling team like the Chiefs, Raiders, Browns. Bucs, Rams, or Lions would actually qualify for the playoffs. Any given Sunday, indeed.

One final curiosity. After week 6, I promoted in some circles the fact that the Broncos had essentially won the AFC West, since my software projected that they had a 99.6% chance of winning their division. These odds were based on the team efficiencies at the time. Today, I re-simulated weeks 7 through 17 again using the “true” end-of-season efficiency ratings. Their actual odds were only about 96%. So in reality their odds of missing the playoffs were about 10 times larger than I was estimating at the time. It might be worthwhile for me to incorporate some kind of uncertainty estimate in the early-season efficiency ratings in order for me to avoid similar future embarrassments. On the other hand, Denver’s improbable collapse provided a great deal of comic relief to my fellow Chief fans and I was credited with unique powers of “reverse mojo”.

2009 NFL Playoff Tournament Odds

admin — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 12:49:44 +0000

Here are the tournament odds for the upcoming NFL playoffs.Single game probabilities are from Advanced NFL Stats: http://www.advancednflstats.com/AFC Percent Probability of Team:

Team	Advancing to Div Round	Advancing to Conf Round	Winning Conf	Winning Super Bowl
Indianapolis	100.0	77.74	47.62	27.46
San Diego	100.00	69.08	34.36	17.76
New England	70.5	24.52	10.48	5.24
Cincinnati	50.98	9.7	2.38	0.76
NY Jets	49.02	12.04	3.34	1.12
Baltimore	29.5	6.92	1.92	0.76

NFC Percent Probability of Team:

Team	Advancing to Div Round	Advancing to Conf Round	Winning Conf	Winning Super Bowl
New Orleans	100.0	69.36	48.5	25.18
Minnesota	100.0	46.44	13.52	4.12
Dallas	57.04	35.34	17.06	9.1
Arizona	43.22	10.26	2.24	0.5
Green Bay	56.78	20.78	7.54	2.56
Philadelphia	42.96	17.82	11.14	5.44

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 16

admin — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 04:37:28 +0000

Some interesting scenarios for week 17:

The Jets are guaranteed the 5th seed if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.They cannot qualify for the 6th seed.

Likewise the Ravens are guaranteed a playoff spot if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.

Denver is the only one of the teams still in contention that can qualify for a playoff spot with a loss. However, a win does not qualify them for a playoff spot. In addition to a win, they need either a loss or tie from the Jets or Ravens.

A lot is at stake in the Cowboys-Eagles game. The winner could finish as high as the 2nd seed and the loser as low as the 6th seed.

Complete scenarios are available from: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/12/nfl-playoff-scenarios.html

Single game probabilities are from Advanced NFL Stats: http://www.advancednflstats.com/

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	88.8	11.2	0.0
Miami	0.0	11.2	88.8	0.0
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	0.0	88.38	11.62	0.0
Pittsburgh	0.0	11.62	88.38	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	41.94	41.98	16.08
Houston	0.0	49.6	20.62	29.78
Tennessee	0.0	8.46	37.4	54.14

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Denver	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	57.46	42.54	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	42.54	57.46	0.0	0.0
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Green Bay	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Chicago	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.0	87.14	12.86	0.0
Carolina	0.0	12.86	87.14	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Diego	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
New England	0.0	0.0	82.6	17.4	0.0	0.0	100.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	17.4	82.6	0.0	0.0	100.0
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	66.54	0.0	66.54
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	27.4	55.02	82.42
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.62	25.46	29.08
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.08	13.8	15.88
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	3.96	4.26
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	1.44	1.5
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.32	0.32
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Philadelphia	0.0	42.54	0.0	0.0	24.74	32.72	100.0
Minnesota	0.0	26.44	50.02	23.54	0.0	0.0	100.0
Dallas	0.0	17.96	27.82	11.68	0.0	42.54	100.0
Arizona	0.0	13.06	22.16	64.78	0.0	0.0	100.0
Green Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	75.26	24.74	100.0
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 15

admin — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:51:45 +0000

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	98.82	1.18	0.0	0.0
Miami	1.18	63.76	35.06	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	35.06	64.94	0.0
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	96.76	3.24	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	3.24	89.44	7.32	0.0
Pittsburgh	0.0	7.32	92.68	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	52.2	31.9	15.9
Tennessee	0.0	29.12	43.74	27.14
Houston	0.0	18.68	24.36	56.96

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Denver	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Philadelphia	59.94	40.06	0.0	0.0
Dallas	40.06	20.84	39.1	0.0
NY Giants	0.0	39.1	60.9	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Green Bay	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Chicago	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.0	91.74	8.26	0.0
Carolina	0.0	8.26	91.74	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	99.82	0.18	0.0
Seattle	0.0	0.18	99.82	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 23 12:44:39 EST 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Diego	0.0	97.62	2.38	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
New England	0.0	2.38	70.4	26.04	0.0	0.12	98.94
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	26.88	69.88	0.06	1.4	98.22
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	0.26	2.98	53.78	20.34	77.36
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	30.86	40.68	71.54
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.08	1.1	0.76	6.92	8.86
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.5	8.72	16.22
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.62	5.36	9.98
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.14	12.0	14.14
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.14	2.88	3.02
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.14	1.58	1.72
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	99.58	0.42	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Minnesota	0.42	65.48	26.6	7.5	0.0	0.0	100.0
Philadelphia	0.0	25.42	33.22	1.3	20.3	19.76	100.0
Dallas	0.0	5.22	21.2	13.64	1.26	20.92	62.24
Arizona	0.0	3.46	18.98	77.56	0.0	0.0	100.0
Green Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	60.74	26.14	86.88
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	17.7	33.18	50.88
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 23 12:44:39 EST 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 14

admin — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:03:59 +0000

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	88.78	9.22	1.94	0.06
NY Jets	3.58	56.54	38.68	1.2
Miami	7.6	33.92	57.84	0.64
Buffalo	0.04	0.32	1.54	98.1

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	97.42	2.58	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	2.58	90.32	7.1	0.0
Pittsburgh	0.0	7.1	92.9	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	69.22	23.26	7.52
Tennessee	0.0	16.88	47.38	35.74
Houston	0.0	13.9	29.36	56.74

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	94.28	5.72	0.0	0.0
Denver	5.72	94.28	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	87.66	12.34
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	12.34	87.66

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Philadelphia	75.8	21.28	2.92	0.0
Dallas	21.4	30.02	48.58	0.0
NY Giants	2.8	48.7	48.5	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	98.38	1.62	0.0	0.0
Green Bay	1.62	98.38	0.0	0.0
Chicago	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.0	86.08	13.92	0.0
Carolina	0.0	13.92	86.08	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	97.96	2.04	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	2.04	96.44	1.52	0.0
Seattle	0.0	1.52	98.48	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

Generated: Tue Dec 15 12:01:19 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Diego	0.0	86.7	6.36	1.22	5.18	0.48	99.94
Cincinnati	0.0	6.9	35.08	55.44	0.0	0.16	97.58
New England	0.0	2.12	53.18	33.48	0.06	2.6	91.44
Denver	0.0	4.28	1.14	0.3	72.04	19.36	97.12
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	2.16	1.42	0.7	12.48	16.76
Miami	0.0	0.0	1.32	6.28	0.36	5.74	13.7
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	0.76	1.82	17.78	34.8	55.16
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.84	20.8	24.64
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.0	0.0	0.04
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	1.78	1.82
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.14	1.14
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.66	0.66
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	98.32	1.68	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Minnesota	1.68	85.6	9.52	1.58	1.48	0.14	100.0
Philadelphia	0.0	10.14	61.44	4.22	6.56	13.96	96.32
Arizona	0.0	0.98	19.88	77.1	0.0	0.48	98.44
Green Bay	0.0	1.42	0.2	0.0	83.28	13.08	97.98
Dallas	0.0	0.18	8.5	12.72	0.88	28.0	50.28
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.46	2.34	7.64	38.32	48.76
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.04	0.16	5.54	7.74
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.42	0.42
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.06
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 15 12:01:19 EST 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 13

admin — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 06:38:37 +0000

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	93.04	6.04	0.86	0.06
NY Jets	3.5	64.62	29.7	2.18
Miami	3.36	28.38	64.24	4.02
Buffalo	0.1	0.96	5.2	93.74

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	98.46	1.54	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	0.52	54.54	44.94	0.0
Pittsburgh	1.02	43.92	55.06	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	93.22	5.76	1.02
Tennessee	0.0	3.2	60.5	36.3
Houston	0.0	3.58	33.74	62.68

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	79.16	20.84	0.0	0.0
Denver	20.84	79.16	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	84.54	15.46
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	15.46	84.54

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Philadelphia	43.94	30.66	25.4	0.0
NY Giants	28.5	37.14	34.36	0.0
Dallas	27.56	32.2	40.24	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	96.54	3.46	0.0	0.0
Green Bay	3.46	95.74	0.8	0.0
Chicago	0.0	0.8	99.14	0.06
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.06	99.94

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.0	83.58	16.42	0.0
Carolina	0.0	16.42	83.58	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	98.66	1.3	0.04	0.0
San Francisco	1.3	80.9	17.8	0.0
Seattle	0.04	17.8	82.16	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

Generated: Thu Dec 10 01:33:35 EST 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	99.78	0.22	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Diego	0.14	67.9	9.5	1.62	16.2	3.16	98.52
Cincinnati	0.0	14.76	46.42	37.28	0.0	0.18	98.64
Denver	0.08	14.76	5.24	0.76	49.84	20.28	90.96
New England	0.0	2.36	36.46	54.22	0.0	0.84	93.88
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	1.28	2.22	0.46	4.2	8.16
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.74	0.28	9.28	16.38	26.68
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.28	3.08	0.04	2.0	5.4
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	17.5	35.04	52.54
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	0.08	0.44	6.68	17.44	24.64
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.38	0.38
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	98.26	1.72	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.0	100.0
Minnesota	1.72	76.06	12.5	6.26	2.34	1.02	99.9
Arizona	0.0	9.72	37.08	51.86	0.0	0.24	98.9
Philadelphia	0.02	8.08	28.8	7.04	15.26	17.88	77.08
Green Bay	0.0	2.44	0.86	0.16	65.44	21.92	90.82
NY Giants	0.0	1.42	8.86	18.22	11.88	27.32	67.7
Dallas	0.0	0.56	11.9	15.1	4.7	28.98	61.24
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	0.28	1.52	3.1
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.0	0.06	0.1
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.08	0.8	0.88
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.08	0.1
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.18	0.18
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 10 01:33:35 EST 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 12

admin — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 03:54:05 +0000

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Note that these predictions are based on updated team efficiency ratings, while the analysis of the AFC and NFC playoff races were based on last weeks team efficiencies. Therefore, there might be slight differences in the percentages below and the percentages in those two articles.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	98.14	1.64	0.18	0.04
NY Jets	0.78	64.54	24.22	10.46
Miami	0.84	21.42	53.18	24.56
Buffalo	0.24	12.4	22.42	64.94

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	82.8	15.44	1.76	0.0
Pittsburgh	12.48	47.54	39.98	0.0
Baltimore	4.72	37.02	58.26	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	58.36	23.42	18.22
Tennessee	0.0	17.98	45.54	36.48
Houston	0.0	23.66	31.04	45.3

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	78.32	21.68	0.0	0.0
Denver	21.68	78.32	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	55.92	44.08
Oakland	0.0	0.0	44.08	55.92

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	50.54	29.92	19.54	0.0
Philadelphia	33.14	42.14	24.72	0.0
NY Giants	16.32	27.94	55.48	0.26
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.26	99.74

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	99.74	0.26	0.0	0.0
Green Bay	0.26	97.94	1.8	0.0
Chicago	0.0	1.8	97.68	0.52
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.52	99.48

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.0	91.58	8.42	0.0
Carolina	0.0	8.4	90.62	0.98
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.02	0.96	99.02

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	83.24	16.68	0.08	0.0
San Francisco	16.74	74.08	9.18	0.0
Seattle	0.02	9.22	90.62	0.14
St Louis	0.0	0.02	0.12	99.86

Generated: Wed Dec 02 22:48:41 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	99.34	0.56	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Diego	0.36	51.42	17.9	8.64	11.64	6.34	96.3
New England	0.1	17.94	34.24	45.86	0.02	0.12	98.28
Cincinnati	0.02	15.9	31.76	35.12	1.5	8.42	92.72
Denver	0.18	11.8	6.74	2.96	32.42	25.84	79.94
Pittsburgh	0.0	1.96	7.56	2.96	29.5	21.1	63.08
Baltimore	0.0	0.42	1.4	2.9	16.08	18.26	39.06
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.18	0.6	0.24	2.86	3.88
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.12	0.72	0.02	0.48	1.34
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.72	11.24	18.96
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.24	0.0	0.02	0.26
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.82	4.6	5.42
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.72	0.76
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	85.74	14.14	0.12	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Minnesota	14.24	80.62	4.02	0.86	0.18	0.08	100.0
Dallas	0.02	1.3	36.02	13.2	9.24	21.62	81.4
Arizona	0.0	1.86	21.7	59.68	0.54	1.98	85.76
Philadelphia	0.0	1.56	28.66	2.92	19.1	23.6	75.84
NY Giants	0.0	0.3	8.26	7.76	8.7	20.12	45.14
Green Bay	0.0	0.22	0.04	0.0	60.08	25.06	85.4
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	1.18	15.56	0.98	2.9	20.62
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.18	4.4	5.58
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.06	0.08
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.14	0.14
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.04
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 02 22:48:41 EST 2009

NFC Wild Card Race

admin — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:34:48 +0000

Yesterday, I posted a summary of the AFC playoff race. Today I turn my attention to the NFC. As a reminder, my approach is to tentatively declare Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, and Cardinals as division champs so that I can focus on the wild card races. The NFC East, and to a lesser extent the NFC West, are still up for grabs, but this assumption greatly simplifies the analysis.

Green Bay Packers. Overall, the Packers have a 77% chance of making the playoffs. They have games remaining against the Ravens, Bears, Steelers, Seahawks, and Cardinals. If they can get to 11 or 12 wins, they will almost certainly get a playoff spot. They can afford to lose 2 more games and still be very competitive for the wild card at 10-6. If both of those losses happen outside the conference, they have a better than 99% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose one conference game and one out-of-conference game, their odds drop to 96%. If both losses happen in the conference, their odds are about 90%. Three losses to finish 9-7 would drop their odds to 55%.

Philadelphia Eagles. Overall, the Eagles have a 73% chance of making the playoffs. They have games remaining against the Falcons, Giants, Niners, Broncos, and Cowboys. That is a tough slate of games. If the Eagles can manage to win 11 or 12 games they are in for all intents and purposes. Two more losses would drop them to 10-6. If one of those losses is to Denver (an out-of-conference opponent), they will have a better than 96% chance of making the playoffs. The worst case scenario would be to lose both of their remaining games to division rivals (Dallas and NY), which would drop their playoff odds to 74%. Finishing with three more losses at 9-7 would drop their playoff odds to 31%.

New York Giants. Overall, the Giants currently have a 52% chance of making the playoffs. They have remaining games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins, Panthers, and Vikings. Winning out gets them to 11 wins and a near certain playoff birth. The Giants can probably afford to lose one more game. Even if they lose their remaining game to the Eagles, and win the rest, they still have a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Dropping two games to finish 9-7 gives them about a 46% chance of making the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons currently have a 14% chance of making the playoffs. Winning their remaining games against the Eagles, Saints, Jets, Bills, and Bucs would give them 11 wins and a 99% chance of making the playoffs. However, dropping a single game to the Eagles would only give them a 46% chance to make the playoffs. A single loss to the Saints would give them better odds at 75%. Dropping both their next two games and then finishing 9-7 would only leave them a 4% chance of making the playoffs. They really need to win this weekend against the Eagles.

Intermission. There are several scenarios where an 11 win team could miss the playoffs in the NFC. Any of these teams is vulnerable to that happening. However, these occurrences are extremely rare among the thousands and thousands of simulations I ran for this analysis. If it starts looking more likely to happen, I’ll break down the tiebreakers.

San Francisco 49ers. Overall, the 49ers have a 17% chance of making the playoffs. If they finish 10-6 by winning all of their remaining games (Seahawks, Cardinals, Eagles, Lions, and Rams) they have a better than 99% of making the playoffs either as division champion or a wildcard. Losing one game will drop their record to 9-7, but their playoff odds remain fairly decent since they still have chances to win the division with this record. If they lose a game to the Cards, their odds drop to 54%. A single loss to the Eagles gives them a 66% chance of making the playoffs. And a loss to any other team gives them a 75% of making the playoffs. If we consider the case where San Francisco finishes 9-7 while Arizona wins the division, the 49ers chance for a wild card slot drops to around 44%, comparable to most of the other teams in the wild card race..

Chicago Bears. The Bears only have a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. If they run the table to finish 9-7, their odds of making the playoffs are only 12%.

Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks only have a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. If they win the rest of their games to finish 9-7, they have a 7% chance of winning the division and a 13% chance of a wild card.

Carolina Panthers. The Panthers only have a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. If they win the rest of their games, they have a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Going up against the Pats, Vikings, Giants, and Saints doesn’t look promising.

Washington, Detroit, Tampa, and St.Louis are mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs.

2009 AFC Wildcard Race

admin — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:30:56 +0000

With 5 weeks remaining in the season, there are clear leaders in seven of the eight divisions. The NFC East division champ is very much up for grabs but in each of the other divisions there is one team that has an 80% chance or better of winning the division. The Cowboys have the inside track to the NFC East title, and even if the Eagles or Giants ultimately win that division, the Cowboys are likely to claim one of the wildcard spots. For the moment, if we designate the Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, and Cardinals as division champs, we can focus on the wild card races. In this article, I will focus on the AFC wild card race.

Denver Broncos. Overall, Denver currently has a 75% chance of making the playoffs. The Broncos have games remaining against the Chiefs (twice), Raiders, Colts and Eagles. If the Broncos can reach 11 or 12 wins, they will certainly have a playoff spot as either the division champ or a wild card. At the moment, 10 wins seems very achievable by beating the Chiefs twice and the Raiders. In this case, they would have an 80% chance of making the playoffs, depending on the outcome of other games and the tiebreakers. If the Broncos only manage two more victories to finish 9 and 7 their odds of making the playoffs drop to 22%.

Pittsburgh Steelers. Overall, the Steelers currently have a 70% chance of making the playoffs. The Steelers have remaining games against Oakland, Cleveland, Green Bay, Baltimore, and Miami. If they run the table to get to 11 wins, they are in. If they lose one game, things get a little dicey depending on whom the lose to. Losing to Baltimore again drops their odds to 63%, losing only to Miami gives them an 83% chance, while a sole loss to Green Bay gives them an 87% chance. Two losses would drop their playoff odds to around 13%.

Baltimore Ravens. Overall, the Ravens currently have a 38% chance of making the playoffs. However, in terms of controlling their own destiny, the Ravens are in a slightly better situation. They have games remaining against Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Oakland. Victories in all of those games gets them to 11 wins and a certain playoff birth. Ten wins with a sole loss to the Steelers gives them a 69% chance of making the playoffs while a single loss to Green Bay or Chicago would give them a 97% chance to make the playoffs. The winner of the second Pittsburg Ravens game will likely make the playoffs. Should be a great game. Two losses would drop the Ravens chances of making the playoffs to around 18%.

Jacksonville Jaguars. Overall, the Jaguars currently have a 16% chance of making the playoffs, yet they still control their own destiny, since victories in their remaining games against Houston, Miami, Indianapolis, New England and Cleveland would give them 11 wins. Their problem is that they have games against two of the best teams in the league. If they can split those two games, and finish with 10 wins, they have a 90% chance of making the playoffs. However if they drop both of those games and finish 9-7, their odds drop to 22% and they need a lot of help.

Intermission. There is a non-zero probability that three of the above four teams could all finish with 11 wins or more (Baltimore and Pittsburgh cannot both finish with 11 wins, since they play each other). If the division leaders don’t falter, this would mean that an 11-win team would miss the playoffs. While mathematically possible, the chances of this happening are extremely low. Surprisingly, Jacksonville would have the inside track in this situation, while Denver and Pittsburgh or Baltimore would be sweating out the tiebreakers.

Houston Texans. Overall, the Texans currently have a 3.7% chance of making the playoffs. Winning the rest of their games against Jacksonville, Seattle, St. Louis, Miami and New England would give them 10 wins, but even then their odds of making the playoffs are only 59%. Dropping even one game to finish 9-7 would drop their playoff odds to around 3%.

New York Jets. Overall, the Jets currently have a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. If the win all of their remaining games against Buffalo, Tampa, Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati would give them a 10-6 record and a 64% chance of making the playoffs. A single loss to Tampa would leave them with a 13% chance to make the playoffs, but a single loss within the conference would drop their odds to 5%.

Miami Dolphins. Overall, the Dolphins have a 1.5% chance of making the playoffs. If Miami were to win all of their remaining games, against New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh, they would have a 10-6 record and a 94% chance of making the playoffs. A 9-7 record would drop their odds to around 15%. While these odds seem quite promising, according to Burke Team efficiency ratings, they will have a difficult time winning enough games to be a significant player in the wild card race.

Tennessee Titans. Overall, the Titans have only a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. Even if they win all of their remaining games against the Colts, Rams, Dolphins, Chargers, and Seahawks to finish 10-6, their playoff odds are only 34%. This scenario has become a dark horse story within the media over the last couple of weeks; however, the tiebreakers are working strongly against them, even if they can deliver on the field. With a 9-7 record, their chances of making the playoffs drop below 2%.

Buffalo Bills. Overall, the Bills have only a 0.04% chance of making the playoffs. If they win the rest of their games to finish 9-7, their best chance of making the playoffs is if the Patriots falter and the Bills win the division (about 12% chance). The chances of the Bills making a wild card slot at 9-7 are less than 2%.

The Chiefs and Raiders are not yet mathematically eliminated. However, even if they win all of their remaining games to finish 8-8, their chances of making the playoffs are 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively. The Browns are the only team in the AFC that has been mathematically eliminated at this stage of the season.

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 11

admin — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 03:42:55 +0000

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	98.16	1.76	0.08	0.0
Miami	1.7	50.62	40.46	7.22
NY Jets	0.14	41.4	45.32	13.14
Buffalo	0.0	6.22	14.14	79.64

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	70.42	28.6	0.98	0.0
Pittsburgh	27.78	53.52	18.7	0.0
Baltimore	1.8	17.88	80.32	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.98	0.0	0.02	0.0
Jacksonville	0.02	65.32	25.08	9.58
Houston	0.0	28.86	44.32	26.82
Tennessee	0.0	5.82	30.58	63.6

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	85.58	14.42	0.0	0.0
Denver	14.42	85.34	0.24	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.22	56.64	43.14
Oakland	0.0	0.02	43.12	56.86

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	40.54	32.42	26.88	0.16
NY Giants	31.08	32.58	35.98	0.36
Philadelphia	28.38	34.98	36.0	0.64
Washington	0.0	0.02	1.14	98.84

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	98.76	1.18	0.06	0.0
Green Bay	1.14	93.24	5.62	0.0
Chicago	0.1	5.58	93.4	0.92
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.92	99.08

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	99.98	0.02	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.02	87.1	12.72	0.16
Carolina	0.0	12.8	86.38	0.82
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.08	0.9	99.02

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	94.46	5.52	0.02	0.0
San Francisco	5.52	79.46	14.8	0.22
Seattle	0.02	14.88	78.22	6.88
St Louis	0.0	0.14	6.96	92.9

Generated: Tue Nov 24 22:37:47 EST 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	98.66	0.98	0.22	0.12	0.0	0.0	99.98
San Diego	0.56	38.58	27.04	19.4	5.26	6.32	97.16
New England	0.22	27.28	32.42	38.24	0.14	0.18	98.48
Cincinnati	0.28	17.5	23.94	28.7	9.44	11.88	91.74
Pittsburgh	0.12	11.86	10.42	5.38	40.76	13.32	81.86
Denver	0.16	3.7	5.42	5.14	22.2	34.02	70.64
Baltimore	0.0	0.06	0.34	1.4	9.04	9.74	20.58
Miami	0.0	0.02	0.16	1.52	0.54	1.24	3.48
Jacksonville	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.0	9.24	14.82	24.08
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.1	0.3	1.36	1.8
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.08	6.92	10.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	80.42	18.56	0.92	0.08	0.0	0.02	100.0
Minnesota	18.94	64.3	11.38	4.14	0.58	0.46	99.8
Arizona	0.34	8.62	30.86	54.64	0.12	0.9	95.48
Dallas	0.3	2.26	23.94	14.04	14.38	21.6	76.52
Philadelphia	0.0	3.12	19.16	6.1	19.72	19.56	67.66
NY Giants	0.0	2.6	12.94	15.54	14.22	19.52	64.82
Green Bay	0.0	0.54	0.48	0.12	46.32	25.98	73.44
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.3	5.22	0.76	2.78	9.06
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	3.64	7.92	11.58
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.14	0.94	1.18
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.14	0.16
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.12	0.18	0.3
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 24 22:37:47 EST 2009