NFL playoff races and other musings http://files.nfl-forecast.com This is a blog that supplements nfl-forecast.com Wed, 28 Dec 2011 19:58:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 en 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 16 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/123 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/123#comments Tue, 27 Dec 2011 18:21:52 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/123 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 52.938 47.062
Miami 0.0 0.0 47.062 52.938

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 60.844 39.156 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 39.156 60.844 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 78.548 21.452 0.0 0.0
Oakland 21.452 32.812 45.736 0.0
San Diego 0.0 45.736 32.812 21.452
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 21.452 78.548

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 0.0 78.988 21.012 0.0
NY Giants 63.79 7.648 28.562 0.0
Dallas 36.21 13.364 50.426 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 61.192 38.808 0.0
Seattle 0.0 38.808 61.192 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 28 14:55:49 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 78.074 21.926 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 12.346 48.498 0.0 0.0 39.156 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 9.58 29.576 0.0 0.0 60.844 0.0 100.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.548 0.0 0.0 78.548
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.452 0.0 14.818 36.27
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.266 70.266
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.454 10.454
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.462 4.462
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 0.0 69.808 30.192 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 30.192 69.808 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.79 0.0 0.0 63.79
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.21 0.0 0.0 36.21
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.25 45.75 100.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.75 54.25 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 28 14:55:48 EST 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/123/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 15 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/122 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/122#comments Wed, 21 Dec 2011 21:04:39 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/122 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 68.996 31.004
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 31.004 68.996

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 60.192 39.808 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 39.808 60.192 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 76.506 19.624 3.87 0.0
Oakland 11.534 36.964 33.132 18.37
San Diego 4.292 37.67 35.176 22.862
Kansas City 7.668 5.742 27.822 58.768

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 56.208 24.834 18.958 0.0
NY Giants 35.204 39.558 23.648 1.59
Philadelphia 8.588 31.888 45.084 14.44
Washington 0.0 3.72 12.31 83.97

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 95.99 4.01 0.0
Chicago 0.0 4.01 95.99 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.31 4.69 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 4.69 95.31 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 75.654 24.346
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 24.346 75.654

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 59.036 40.964 0.0
Arizona 0.0 40.964 59.036 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 21 16:01:48 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 62.772 12.92 24.308 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Houston 26.988 28.388 44.114 0.51 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 6.12 41.934 12.078 0.06 39.808 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 4.12 16.758 18.93 0.0 60.192 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.57 75.936 0.0 2.732 79.238
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.534 0.0 11.264 22.798
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.668 0.0 0.0 7.668
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.292 0.0 6.826 11.118
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.93 37.93
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.85 37.85
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.398 3.398
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 97.662 2.338 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 2.338 51.296 46.366 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 46.366 48.944 0.0 4.69 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.208 0.338 1.174 57.72
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 4.69 0.0 72.244 18.456 95.39
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.204 0.0 0.0 35.204
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.588 0.0 0.0 8.588
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.926 65.214 86.14
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.644 6.038 6.682
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.696 5.196 5.892
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.462 3.922 4.384
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 21 16:01:48 EST 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/122/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 14 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/121 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/121#comments Wed, 14 Dec 2011 05:06:04 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/121 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.88 0.12 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.12 99.88 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 74.702 25.298
Miami 0.0 0.0 25.298 74.702

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 51.53 48.47 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 48.47 51.53 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 98.48 1.52 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 1.52 98.48 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 79.272 20.166 0.562 0.0
Oakland 19.252 56.258 20.942 3.548
San Diego 0.882 21.73 60.216 17.172
Kansas City 0.594 1.846 18.28 79.28

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 63.23 29.602 6.964 0.204
Dallas 34.114 50.08 15.806 0.0
Philadelphia 2.656 19.5 70.86 6.984
Washington 0.0 0.818 6.37 92.812

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 85.196 14.804 0.0
Chicago 0.0 14.804 85.196 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 96.132 3.868 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 3.868 96.132 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 67.978 32.022
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 32.022 67.978

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 56.01 43.99 0.0
Seattle 0.0 43.99 56.01 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Thu Dec 15 23:55:01 EST 2011


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 31.09 40.224 28.404 0.282 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 26.722 25.838 43.656 3.664 0.0 0.102 99.982
Baltimore 27.472 12.91 7.986 0.102 50.85 0.632 99.952
Pittsburgh 14.714 20.832 15.972 0.012 48.45 0.02 100.0
Denver 0.0020 0.196 3.838 75.236 0.014 3.912 83.198
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.046 19.206 0.148 14.334 33.734
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.098 0.022 0.328 41.302 41.75
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.882 0.0 2.21 3.092
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.594 0.0 0.0 0.594
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.21 17.748 17.958
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.74 19.74
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 99.876 0.124 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 61.01 35.044 0.078 3.734 0.134 100.0
San Francisco 0.124 38.382 59.258 2.236 0.0 0.0 100.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.478 3.39 0.0 66.646 17.206 87.72
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.23 0.018 0.552 63.8
Dallas 0.0 0.0060 2.308 31.8 0.956 2.632 37.702
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.656 0.0020 0.13 2.788
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.87 56.314 76.184
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.232 13.906 21.138
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.856 5.866 6.722
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.686 3.26 3.946
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 15 23:55:01 EST 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/121/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 13 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/120 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/120#comments Tue, 06 Dec 2011 21:04:41 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/120 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.29 0.672 0.038 0.0
NY Jets 0.648 95.268 3.908 0.176
Buffalo 0.062 1.818 66.352 31.768
Miami 0.0 2.242 29.702 68.056

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 48.412 51.464 0.124 0.0
Baltimore 51.58 47.538 0.882 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0080 0.998 98.982 0.012
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.012 99.988

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.876 0.124 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.124 99.07 0.806 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.806 98.562 0.632
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.632 99.368

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.914 39.77 4.764 0.552
Oakland 41.45 44.878 10.69 2.982
San Diego 1.688 10.212 55.892 32.208
Kansas City 1.948 5.14 28.654 64.258

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 63.88 31.464 4.644 0.012
NY Giants 34.93 51.042 11.652 2.376
Philadelphia 1.134 13.728 64.818 20.32
Washington 0.056 3.766 18.886 77.292

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 63.658 36.342 0.0
Chicago 0.0 36.342 63.658 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 97.556 2.444 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 2.444 96.282 1.232 0.042
Carolina 0.0 0.408 60.16 39.432
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.866 38.608 60.526

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 55.334 44.508 0.158
Arizona 0.0 44.666 55.312 0.022
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.18 99.82

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 35.398 36.912 26.784 0.782 0.0 0.05 99.926
Baltimore 27.662 14.524 9.276 0.118 45.456 2.416 99.452
New England 20.63 26.574 47.884 4.202 0.032 0.362 99.684
Pittsburgh 16.298 21.642 10.444 0.028 51.234 0.302 99.948
Denver 0.012 0.31 4.09 50.502 0.09 5.512 60.516
Oakland 0.0 0.024 0.902 40.524 0.226 8.892 50.568
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.476 0.172 0.578 28.356 29.582
Tennessee 0.0 0.012 0.112 0.0 1.44 20.808 22.372
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.948 0.0 0.034 1.982
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.688 0.0080 0.75 2.446
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0020 0.0060 0.0 0.936 32.3 33.244
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.026 0.036 0.0 0.206 0.268
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.012
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 97.786 2.168 0.046 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 2.15 66.23 28.742 2.878 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.064 30.91 63.566 3.016 1.982 0.356 99.894
Dallas 0.0 0.61 5.52 57.75 1.276 3.388 68.544
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.012 34.918 0.1 1.246 36.276
Atlanta 0.0 0.082 2.114 0.248 39.4 26.544 68.388
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.448 36.45 64.898
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.31 27.21 54.52
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.134 0.01 0.15 1.294
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.906 2.596 3.502
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.556 1.976 2.532
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.056 0.01 0.074 0.14
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.012
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/120/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 12 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/119 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/119#comments Wed, 30 Nov 2011 03:37:33 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/119 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.06 0.804 0.136 0.0
NY Jets 0.408 81.432 16.726 1.434
Buffalo 0.532 15.532 71.462 12.474
Miami 0.0 2.232 11.676 86.092

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 50.95 45.048 3.972 0.03
Baltimore 47.702 47.062 5.176 0.06
Cincinnati 1.342 7.88 90.656 0.122
Cleveland 0.0060 0.01 0.196 99.788

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.916 0.084 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.084 88.478 11.438 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 11.438 88.436 0.126
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.126 99.874

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 73.906 23.404 2.486 0.204
Denver 24.922 68.418 5.968 0.692
San Diego 0.852 5.342 66.874 26.932
Kansas City 0.32 2.836 24.672 72.172

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 76.786 18.528 4.626 0.06
NY Giants 20.404 53.626 21.098 4.872
Philadelphia 2.732 23.006 58.134 16.128
Washington 0.078 4.84 16.142 78.94

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 99.946 0.05 0.0040 0.0
Chicago 0.03 54.278 45.692 0.0
Detroit 0.024 45.672 54.304 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.356 4.63 0.014 0.0
Atlanta 4.626 92.182 3.17 0.022
Tampa Bay 0.018 3.014 71.364 25.604
Carolina 0.0 0.174 25.452 74.374

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.954 0.046 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.026 45.512 52.362 2.1
Seattle 0.02 53.828 41.63 4.522
St Louis 0.0 0.614 6.008 93.378

Generated: Tue Nov 29 22:34:57 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 40.93 35.304 21.01 2.672 0.0040 0.03 99.95
New England 25.188 24.384 45.976 3.512 0.074 0.458 99.592
Baltimore 19.256 15.436 11.588 1.422 44.41 5.478 97.59
Pittsburgh 14.276 23.4 12.782 0.492 44.698 3.714 99.362
Cincinnati 0.266 0.41 0.544 0.122 6.966 36.246 44.554
Oakland 0.076 0.886 5.818 67.126 0.622 6.41 80.938
Denver 0.0080 0.154 1.648 23.112 0.608 10.102 35.632
Buffalo 0.0 0.0060 0.368 0.158 0.31 4.006 4.848
NY Jets 0.0 0.0080 0.208 0.192 1.054 23.248 24.71
Tennessee 0.0 0.012 0.056 0.016 1.242 9.84 11.166
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.85 0.0080 0.39 1.25
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 0.0 0.022 0.342
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0040 0.032 0.042
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.018
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0060
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 94.334 5.304 0.288 0.02 0.05 0.0040 100.0
San Francisco 5.328 58.448 24.324 11.854 0.0040 0.02 99.978
New Orleans 0.242 27.15 50.502 17.462 1.454 1.536 98.346
Dallas 0.086 8.642 21.5 46.558 1.16 3.322 81.268
Atlanta 0.0 0.38 2.606 1.64 18.64 31.78 55.046
NY Giants 0.0 0.04 0.75 19.614 1.026 4.926 26.356
Chicago 0.0080 0.018 0.0040 0.0 48.602 28.516 77.148
Detroit 0.0020 0.018 0.0040 0.0 28.828 27.948 56.8
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0040 2.728 0.114 0.966 3.812
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.016 0.024 0.262 0.312
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.078 0.018 0.178 0.274
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.012 0.016 0.158 0.192
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.018 0.064 0.384 0.468
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 29 22:34:57 EST 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/119/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 11 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/118 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/118#comments Wed, 23 Nov 2011 19:34:43 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/118 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 94.136 5.206 0.644 0.014
NY Jets 1.394 57.54 35.77 5.296
Buffalo 4.436 34.82 52.122 8.622
Miami 0.034 2.434 11.464 86.068

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 63.196 33.27 3.446 0.088
Baltimore 34.736 55.704 8.96 0.6
Cincinnati 1.996 10.412 80.144 7.448
Cleveland 0.072 0.614 7.45 91.864

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.878 0.12 0.0020 0.0
Tennessee 0.12 85.578 14.302 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0020 14.302 85.472 0.224
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.224 99.776

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 74.736 18.564 6.124 0.576
San Diego 12.306 40.818 41.19 5.686
Denver 12.642 38.792 40.822 7.744
Kansas City 0.316 1.826 11.864 85.994

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 69.076 21.38 9.478 0.066
NY Giants 23.788 47.586 25.834 2.792
Philadelphia 7.102 29.196 57.166 6.536
Washington 0.034 1.838 7.522 90.606

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 95.324 3.67 1.006 0.0
Chicago 1.508 51.764 46.726 0.0020
Detroit 3.168 44.566 52.26 0.0060
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0080 99.992

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 91.968 7.95 0.082 0.0
Atlanta 7.948 85.99 5.912 0.15
Tampa Bay 0.084 5.656 69.55 24.71
Carolina 0.0 0.404 24.456 75.14

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.932 0.068 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.068 75.728 20.734 3.47
Arizona 0.0 20.464 60.168 19.368
St Louis 0.0 3.74 19.098 77.162

Generated: Wed Nov 23 13:45:37 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 54.238 29.066 14.43 2.144 0.014 0.056 99.948
Pittsburgh 16.442 34.546 11.308 0.9 32.37 3.346 98.912
New England 16.946 21.122 51.38 4.688 1.024 2.962 98.122
Baltimore 11.826 12.434 9.316 1.16 48.65 10.002 93.388
Oakland 0.196 1.598 7.21 65.732 0.498 3.58 78.814
Cincinnati 0.314 0.69 0.85 0.142 8.744 30.41 41.15
Buffalo 0.028 0.37 3.166 0.872 2.258 10.434 17.128
Denver 0.0060 0.102 1.168 11.366 0.504 4.618 17.764
San Diego 0.0 0.0080 0.25 12.048 0.304 2.58 15.19
NY Jets 0.0 0.032 0.81 0.552 2.3 19.736 23.43
Tennessee 0.0020 0.024 0.07 0.024 3.114 11.262 14.496
Cleveland 0.0020 0.0080 0.026 0.036 0.208 0.674 0.954
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.316 0.0 0.02 0.336
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.018 0.0020 0.108 0.144
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.212 0.224
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 73.816 20.702 0.744 0.062 3.648 0.982 99.954
San Francisco 24.424 59.682 11.846 3.98 0.0080 0.018 99.958
New Orleans 0.43 10.062 48.638 32.838 0.75 1.58 94.298
Dallas 0.184 6.174 26.348 36.37 0.88 4.208 74.164
Detroit 0.71 1.816 0.574 0.068 37.164 29.67 70.002
Chicago 0.412 0.816 0.25 0.03 49.378 35.474 86.36
NY Giants 0.022 0.53 7.65 15.586 1.524 6.404 31.716
Atlanta 0.0020 0.216 3.526 4.204 6.266 19.12 33.334
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0020 0.366 6.734 0.154 1.488 8.744
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.04 0.214 0.862 1.144
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.056 0.0080 0.1 0.192
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.032 0.0040 0.062 0.1
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.032 0.034
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 23 13:45:37 EST 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/118/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 10 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/117 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/117#comments Thu, 17 Nov 2011 06:11:17 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/117 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 86.794 11.3 1.904 0.0020
NY Jets 4.358 52.736 41.744 1.162
Buffalo 8.84 35.638 53.048 2.474
Miami 0.0080 0.326 3.304 96.362

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 66.866 29.91 3.198 0.026
Baltimore 29.648 51.804 17.87 0.678
Cincinnati 3.478 18.05 74.654 3.818
Cleveland 0.0080 0.236 4.278 95.478

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.276 0.712 0.012 0.0
Tennessee 0.684 84.338 14.978 0.0
Jacksonville 0.04 14.95 84.904 0.106
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.106 99.894

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 75.298 17.888 5.738 1.076
San Diego 15.924 48.826 28.742 6.508
Denver 7.832 28.874 46.28 17.014
Kansas City 0.946 4.412 19.24 75.402

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 57.586 33.814 7.848 0.752
NY Giants 39.064 48.278 10.994 1.664
Philadelphia 3.034 15.512 64.578 16.876
Washington 0.316 2.396 16.58 80.708

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 96.842 2.644 0.514 0.0
Chicago 0.94 50.536 48.482 0.042
Detroit 2.218 46.812 50.876 0.094
Minnesota 0.0 0.0080 0.128 99.864

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.594 4.344 0.062 0.0
Atlanta 4.298 83.032 11.236 1.434
Tampa Bay 0.09 9.42 56.12 34.37
Carolina 0.018 3.204 32.582 64.196

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.734 0.256 0.01 0.0
Seattle 0.068 45.9 31.434 22.598
Arizona 0.176 34.784 40.876 24.164
St Louis 0.022 19.06 27.68 53.238

Generated: Thu Nov 17 01:04:24 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 52.71 28.894 15.678 1.994 0.15 0.24 99.666
Pittsburgh 18.446 34.498 13.07 0.852 27.042 4.232 98.14
New England 17.204 21.37 45.34 2.88 3.144 5.88 95.818
Baltimore 10.2 10.308 8.116 1.024 37.298 15.688 82.634
Cincinnati 0.702 1.13 1.446 0.2 12.678 18.994 35.15
Buffalo 0.436 1.588 5.828 0.988 5.072 12.912 26.824
Oakland 0.198 1.362 6.424 67.314 0.254 1.304 76.856
NY Jets 0.038 0.588 2.866 0.866 6.896 23.64 34.894
Tennessee 0.062 0.188 0.34 0.094 6.926 14.046 21.656
San Diego 0.0 0.046 0.396 15.482 0.216 1.294 17.434
Denver 0.0040 0.028 0.458 7.342 0.168 1.002 9.002
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.942 0.0 0.016 0.962
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.018 0.124 0.6 0.764
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0020 0.032 0.134 0.174
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0020 0.0 0.018 0.026
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 81.036 14.564 1.132 0.11 2.586 0.522 99.95
San Francisco 16.69 57.676 17.322 8.046 0.026 0.058 99.818
New Orleans 0.622 14.844 42.846 37.282 0.482 0.828 96.904
Dallas 0.266 8.544 22.734 26.042 2.926 9.16 69.672
NY Giants 0.368 2.804 13.518 22.374 4.75 11.092 54.906
Detroit 0.686 1.036 0.406 0.09 37.78 27.928 67.926
Chicago 0.332 0.39 0.19 0.028 45.89 33.582 80.412
Atlanta 0.0 0.122 1.562 2.614 4.98 13.824 23.102
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0060 0.192 2.836 0.22 1.416 4.67
Arizona 0.0 0.014 0.032 0.13 0.04 0.38 0.596
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.282 0.04 0.264 0.62
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.052 0.246 0.718 1.032
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.074 0.02 0.182 0.292
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.0060 0.014 0.042
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.0040 0.02 0.042
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.012 0.016

Generated: Thu Nov 17 01:04:24 EST 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/117/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/116 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/116#comments Thu, 10 Nov 2011 05:18:41 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/116 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 56.084 29.244 14.582 0.09
NY Jets 23.06 37.584 38.632 0.724
Buffalo 20.844 33.02 45.012 1.124
Miami 0.012 0.152 1.774 98.062

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 60.692 29.398 9.334 0.576
Pittsburgh 32.142 52.652 14.48 0.726
Cincinnati 7.054 17.25 69.04 6.656
Cleveland 0.112 0.7 7.146 92.042

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 98.576 1.37 0.054 0.0
Tennessee 1.208 71.792 26.822 0.178
Jacksonville 0.216 26.758 69.938 3.088
Indianapolis 0.0 0.08 3.186 96.734

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 65.116 22.496 9.894 2.494
Oakland 20.764 30.816 30.944 17.476
Kansas City 9.822 30.298 31.974 27.906
Denver 4.298 16.39 27.188 52.124

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 54.67 28.466 13.628 3.236
Dallas 31.236 35.12 26.548 7.096
Philadelphia 12.826 31.112 42.83 13.232
Washington 1.268 5.302 16.994 76.436

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 90.46 8.742 0.798 0.0
Detroit 8.542 64.596 26.596 0.266
Chicago 0.998 26.606 71.22 1.176
Minnesota 0.0 0.056 1.386 98.558

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 80.494 17.602 1.772 0.132
Atlanta 18.194 61.578 16.67 3.558
Tampa Bay 0.988 14.038 49.33 35.644
Carolina 0.324 6.782 32.228 60.666

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.564 0.414 0.022 0.0
Seattle 0.114 38.122 31.894 29.87
Arizona 0.194 29.308 35.848 34.65
St Louis 0.128 32.156 32.236 35.48

Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 36.324 15.734 7.54 1.094 22.448 8.842 91.982
Houston 31.896 36.256 26.128 4.296 0.084 0.316 98.976
Pittsburgh 14.1 12.982 4.582 0.478 45.746 12.302 90.19
New England 10.168 18.316 25.64 1.96 6.106 16.382 78.572
Buffalo 2.366 5.6 10.76 2.118 5.774 15.372 41.99
Cincinnati 2.494 2.572 1.748 0.24 12.342 19.146 38.542
NY Jets 1.902 5.774 13.514 1.87 5.808 19.422 48.29
San Diego 0.622 2.13 6.518 55.846 0.104 0.646 65.866
Tennessee 0.076 0.236 0.646 0.25 1.188 4.87 7.266
Oakland 0.04 0.274 1.968 18.482 0.108 0.906 21.778
Kansas City 0.012 0.064 0.464 9.282 0.096 0.548 10.466
Denver 0.0 0.03 0.288 3.98 0.026 0.398 4.722
Cleveland 0.0 0.022 0.056 0.034 0.13 0.414 0.656
Jacksonville 0.0 0.01 0.146 0.06 0.04 0.426 0.682
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.022
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 77.538 11.534 1.234 0.154 8.552 0.826 99.838
San Francisco 13.604 47.414 23.176 15.37 0.0040 0.044 99.612
Detroit 4.368 3.058 0.924 0.192 53.182 18.752 80.476
NY Giants 2.672 13.13 18.438 20.43 3.316 8.65 66.636
New Orleans 1.064 15.67 32.002 31.758 2.036 3.918 86.448
Dallas 0.286 6.314 12.4 12.236 2.632 12.152 46.02
Chicago 0.424 0.386 0.172 0.016 23.266 35.246 59.51
Atlanta 0.044 2.06 7.806 8.284 5.644 12.448 36.286
Philadelphia 0.0 0.388 3.324 9.114 1.064 5.516 19.406
Washington 0.0 0.032 0.28 0.956 0.116 0.972 2.356
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.01 0.208 0.77 0.08 0.866 1.934
Arizona 0.0 0.0040 0.014 0.176 0.012 0.064 0.27
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0080 0.316 0.038 0.19 0.552
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.1 0.038 0.192 0.344
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.128 0.0 0.016 0.144
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.148 0.168

Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/116/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/115 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/115#comments Wed, 02 Nov 2011 00:07:00 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/115 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 50.694 38.878 10.4 0.028
Buffalo 41.62 40.338 17.842 0.2
NY Jets 7.684 20.728 70.226 1.362
Miami 0.0020 0.056 1.532 98.41

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 56.542 33.24 9.442 0.776
Baltimore 35.362 44.846 17.688 2.104
Cincinnati 7.846 20.272 62.27 9.612
Cleveland 0.25 1.642 10.6 87.508

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 92.43 7.164 0.406 0.0
Tennessee 7.006 75.268 17.322 0.404
Jacksonville 0.564 17.208 73.58 8.648
Indianapolis 0.0 0.36 8.692 90.948

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 47.098 30.292 19.658 2.952
Oakland 28.96 29.448 34.368 7.224
Kansas City 22.668 35.502 31.652 10.178
Denver 1.274 4.758 14.322 79.646

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 42.012 27.654 20.222 10.112
Philadelphia 25.348 32.674 28.088 13.89
Dallas 27.684 28.5 28.378 15.438
Washington 4.956 11.172 23.312 60.56

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 86.262 12.622 1.112 0.0040
Detroit 12.832 68.734 18.09 0.344
Chicago 0.906 18.476 75.938 4.68
Minnesota 0.0 0.168 4.86 94.972

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 85.768 11.636 2.298 0.298
Atlanta 10.368 49.264 29.484 10.884
Tampa Bay 3.268 27.464 40.112 29.156
Carolina 0.596 11.636 28.106 59.662

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 96.896 2.776 0.288 0.04
St Louis 1.674 42.89 30.744 24.692
Seattle 0.854 34.848 37.714 26.584
Arizona 0.576 19.486 31.254 48.684

Generated: Tue Nov 01 19:57:05 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 28.866 16.536 9.602 1.538 23.616 9.548 89.706
Houston 22.78 27.012 30.208 12.43 0.962 1.572 94.964
Baltimore 15.59 11.668 6.046 2.058 23.34 16.418 75.12
New England 14.018 18.666 15.234 2.776 14.396 15.696 80.786
Buffalo 12.722 13.564 11.914 3.42 14.366 15.018 71.004
Cincinnati 2.572 2.492 2.094 0.688 9.354 11.982 29.182
San Diego 1.074 3.158 8.462 34.404 0.908 2.398 50.404
NY Jets 0.676 2.296 3.488 1.224 4.218 9.584 21.486
Tennessee 0.678 1.694 2.876 1.758 6.45 10.972 24.428
Oakland 0.496 1.704 6.228 20.532 0.87 2.874 32.704
Kansas City 0.516 1.124 3.374 17.654 1.17 2.678 26.516
Cleveland 0.01 0.044 0.104 0.092 0.206 0.618 1.074
Denver 0.0020 0.018 0.1 1.154 0.04 0.156 1.47
Jacksonville 0.0 0.024 0.268 0.272 0.104 0.48 1.148
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0080
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 75.078 9.398 1.54 0.246 11.846 1.448 99.556
San Francisco 10.9 37.482 25.76 22.754 0.074 0.256 97.226
Detroit 6.944 4.008 1.498 0.382 54.08 15.928 82.84
New Orleans 3.044 23.298 30.136 29.29 1.258 2.556 89.582
NY Giants 2.906 11.108 14.022 13.976 5.428 11.742 59.182
Dallas 0.536 7.434 10.66 9.054 3.182 14.156 45.022
Philadelphia 0.17 4.056 9.25 11.872 5.74 13.9 44.988
Chicago 0.318 0.346 0.168 0.074 12.968 22.106 35.98
Atlanta 0.062 1.704 4.04 4.562 3.47 9.232 23.07
Washington 0.032 0.978 1.82 2.126 1.236 4.806 10.998
Tampa Bay 0.01 0.142 0.71 2.406 0.35 1.946 5.564
Seattle 0.0 0.03 0.126 0.698 0.172 0.804 1.83
St Louis 0.0 0.0060 0.166 1.502 0.056 0.3 2.03
Arizona 0.0 0.0080 0.058 0.51 0.026 0.162 0.764
Carolina 0.0 0.0020 0.046 0.548 0.072 0.296 0.964
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.042 0.362 0.404

Generated: Tue Nov 01 19:57:05 EDT 2011

]]> http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/115/feed 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 7 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/114 http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/114#comments Tue, 25 Oct 2011 23:52:40 +0000 admin http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/114 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 65.536 26.206 8.164 0.094
Buffalo 22.962 41.786 33.688 1.564
NY Jets 11.468 31.648 54.58 2.304
Miami 0.034 0.36 3.568 96.038

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 47.0 31.704 17.582 3.714
Pittsburgh 33.412 37.516 23.676 5.396
Cincinnati 18.328 26.552 44.54 10.58
Cleveland 1.26 4.228 14.202 80.31

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 88.17 10.118 1.684 0.028
Tennessee 8.658 62.656 26.004 2.682
Jacksonville 3.142 25.362 59.914 11.582
Indianapolis 0.03 1.864 12.398 85.708

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 58.336 27.224 11.714 2.726
Oakland 29.984 38.14 23.832 8.044
Kansas City 9.046 24.016 37.532 29.406
Denver 2.634 10.62 26.922 59.824

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 47.668 26.578 16.49 9.264
NY Giants 29.622 31.084 24.258 15.036
Washington 13.412 24.08 30.518 31.99
Philadelphia 9.298 18.258 28.734 43.71

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 89.85 9.124 1.022 0.0040
Detroit 8.784 62.88 27.644 0.692
Chicago 1.366 27.812 67.89 2.932
Minnesota 0.0 0.184 3.444 96.372

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.348 7.914 1.484 0.254
Atlanta 6.382 43.096 31.678 18.844
Tampa Bay 2.196 27.556 34.484 35.764
Carolina 1.074 21.434 32.354 45.138

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.068 7.422 1.292 0.218
Arizona 5.366 39.18 33.134 22.32
Seattle 2.446 33.864 36.462 27.228
St Louis 1.12 19.534 29.112 50.234

Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 32.852 17.784 10.898 4.002 13.296 8.266 87.098
Houston 18.784 22.97 24.738 21.678 1.416 1.902 91.488
Baltimore 15.52 15.612 10.116 5.752 14.368 11.658 73.026
Pittsburgh 10.052 10.0 8.572 4.788 18.536 13.782 65.73
Buffalo 7.212 7.008 5.37 3.372 16.368 13.912 53.242
San Diego 5.836 9.626 15.15 27.724 2.294 3.634 64.264
Cincinnati 4.622 5.638 4.902 3.166 11.04 12.228 41.596
NY Jets 2.064 3.416 3.714 2.274 9.438 12.156 33.062
Oakland 1.636 4.528 9.67 14.15 3.87 6.95 40.804
Tennessee 0.89 1.962 2.832 2.974 6.218 8.714 23.59
Kansas City 0.376 0.858 2.05 5.762 1.592 2.86 13.498
Cleveland 0.062 0.208 0.436 0.554 0.6 1.334 3.194
Denver 0.054 0.186 0.58 1.814 0.606 1.41 4.65
Jacksonville 0.04 0.204 0.966 1.932 0.356 1.172 4.67
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.028 0.0020 0.022 0.058
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.03

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 72.994 12.682 3.414 0.76 8.228 1.336 99.414
New Orleans 9.818 35.39 27.222 17.918 1.708 1.988 94.044
San Francisco 7.996 22.906 25.716 34.45 0.58 1.022 92.67
Detroit 3.8 2.854 1.572 0.558 41.548 17.5 67.832
Dallas 2.504 13.52 17.896 13.748 5.71 11.744 65.122
NY Giants 2.12 6.606 10.568 10.328 8.182 12.272 50.076
Washington 0.242 2.844 5.73 4.596 5.146 10.06 28.618
Chicago 0.368 0.528 0.328 0.142 17.274 19.16 37.8
Atlanta 0.082 1.27 2.596 2.434 5.514 9.492 21.388
Philadelphia 0.048 0.916 2.79 5.544 3.308 7.436 20.042
Tampa Bay 0.018 0.216 0.62 1.342 0.924 2.976 6.096
Arizona 0.0060 0.13 0.738 4.492 0.306 1.076 6.748
Seattle 0.0040 0.078 0.45 1.914 0.528 1.378 4.352
Carolina 0.0 0.058 0.306 0.71 0.972 2.246 4.292
St Louis 0.0 0.0020 0.054 1.064 0.014 0.114 1.248
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.058 0.2 0.258

Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011

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