2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 11

November 19th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 64.376 29.782 5.842 0.0
Miami 33.28 54.726 11.868 0.126
Buffalo 2.344 15.43 80.844 1.382
NY Jets 0.0 0.062 1.446 98.492

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 35.692 26.632 23.678 13.998
Cincinnati 28.57 22.696 24.078 24.656
Cleveland 21.068 25.038 25.266 28.628
Baltimore 14.67 25.634 26.978 32.718

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 82.046 17.532 0.416 0.006
Houston 17.756 74.19 7.432 0.622
Tennessee 0.174 7.166 70.254 22.406
Jacksonville 0.024 1.112 21.898 76.966

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 61.55 34.496 3.954 0.0
Kansas City 36.658 54.194 9.148 0.0
San Diego 1.792 11.31 86.898 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 52.722 44.156 2.9 0.222
Dallas 46.98 49.936 2.866 0.218
Washington 0.206 3.574 52.538 43.682
NY Giants 0.092 2.334 41.696 55.878

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 61.832 37.718 0.442 0.008
Detroit 37.928 55.576 6.104 0.392
Chicago 0.22 6.094 64.938 28.748
Minnesota 0.02 0.612 28.516 70.852

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 67.148 23.04 9.204 0.608
Atlanta 18.684 37.856 40.16 3.3
Carolina 13.954 37.07 39.782 9.194
Tampa Bay 0.214 2.034 10.854 86.898

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 73.794 20.42 5.634 0.152
San Francisco 11.118 44.484 39.248 5.15
Seattle 14.98 33.364 42.21 9.446
St Louis 0.108 1.732 12.908 85.252

Generated: Wed Nov 19 20:54:29 EST 2014

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 32.002 22.304 8.688 1.382 12.364 10.468 87.208
Denver 27.3 24.89 7.916 1.444 17.56 10.286 89.396
Kansas City 22.292 9.224 4.284 0.858 33.906 11.768 82.332
Miami 8.658 14.022 7.972 2.628 13.37 18.94 65.59
Pittsburgh 3.298 8.724 19.074 4.596 5.334 9.354 50.38
Cincinnati 3.268 7.024 12.71 5.568 4.156 8.394 41.12
Indianapolis 0.886 4.832 15.818 60.51 0.074 0.494 82.614
Cleveland 0.82 3.932 11.846 4.47 2.828 7.398 31.294
Baltimore 0.472 2.348 6.882 4.968 3.302 8.188 26.16
Houston 0.424 1.694 3.336 12.302 1.852 4.154 23.762
San Diego 0.436 0.6 0.528 0.228 3.96 7.408 13.16
Buffalo 0.144 0.406 0.946 0.848 1.294 3.146 6.784
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.174 0.0 0.002 0.176
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.0 0.0 0.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 56.618 13.88 3.296 0.0 16.388 6.002 96.184
Green Bay 16.822 32.866 11.752 0.392 14.106 14.362 90.3
Detroit 8.214 21.156 8.528 0.03 18.388 21.162 77.478
Dallas 4.838 12.428 29.54 0.174 6.126 10.78 63.886
Seattle 5.648 4.458 4.866 0.008 17.174 15.714 47.868
San Francisco 4.418 4.8 1.898 0.002 23.306 20.446 54.87
Philadelphia 3.438 10.208 37.516 1.56 3.08 7.708 63.51
New Orleans 0.0 0.104 1.98 65.064 0.002 0.016 67.166
Atlanta 0.0 0.012 0.168 18.504 0.0 0.014 18.698
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.954 0.0 0.0 13.954
Chicago 0.004 0.082 0.128 0.006 1.22 2.748 4.188
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.154 0.052 0.006 0.14 0.352
St Louis 0.0 0.002 0.094 0.012 0.138 0.544 0.79
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.064 0.028 0.002 0.008 0.102
Minnesota 0.0 0.004 0.016 0.0 0.064 0.356 0.44
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.214 0.0 0.0 0.214

Generated: Wed Nov 19 20:54:29 EST 2014

2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 10

November 12th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 52.442 33.31 14.202 0.046
Miami 36.254 39.238 23.97 0.538
Buffalo 11.3 27.27 60.02 1.41
NY Jets 0.004 0.182 1.808 98.006

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cleveland 44.696 26.046 19.022 10.236
Pittsburgh 25.216 32.848 22.606 19.33
Baltimore 18.636 22.962 34.236 24.166
Cincinnati 11.452 18.144 24.136 46.268

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.466 6.34 0.19 0.004
Houston 6.254 75.826 15.428 2.492
Tennessee 0.256 15.064 63.854 20.826
Jacksonville 0.024 2.77 20.528 76.678

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 81.978 16.774 1.248 0.0
Kansas City 16.758 68.346 14.892 0.004
San Diego 1.264 14.88 83.72 0.136
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.14 99.86

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 57.052 35.234 6.854 0.86
Dallas 40.556 47.628 10.306 1.51
Washington 1.896 12.414 50.548 35.142
NY Giants 0.496 4.724 32.292 62.488

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 41.88 56.164 1.876 0.08
Detroit 57.876 39.59 2.34 0.194
Minnesota 0.154 2.552 52.376 44.918
Chicago 0.09 1.694 43.408 54.808

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 78.162 17.72 4.046 0.072
Carolina 15.54 56.6 25.882 1.978
Atlanta 6.276 25.1 64.952 3.672
Tampa Bay 0.022 0.58 5.12 94.278

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 62.762 29.554 7.472 0.212
Seattle 29.806 40.476 27.726 1.992
San Francisco 7.392 29.374 57.544 5.69
St Louis 0.04 0.596 7.258 92.106

Generated: Wed Nov 12 22:34:39 EST 2014

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 56.942 16.572 6.684 1.78 11.06 3.586 96.624
New England 11.234 15.736 14.822 10.65 7.232 10.186 69.86
Kansas City 9.798 4.3 1.986 0.674 38.612 15.466 70.836
Indianapolis 6.952 21.928 23.618 40.968 0.172 0.55 94.188
Cleveland 5.27 14.772 15.302 9.352 6.81 10.012 61.518
Miami 5.34 10.652 11.474 8.788 7.95 12.688 56.892
Pittsburgh 2.062 7.502 10.21 5.442 9.724 12.392 47.332
Cincinnati 0.886 2.596 4.16 3.81 4.188 7.842 23.482
Baltimore 0.474 3.254 6.786 8.122 4.262 9.388 32.286
Buffalo 0.538 1.584 3.416 5.762 2.07 4.852 18.222
San Diego 0.364 0.398 0.32 0.182 5.83 8.566 15.66
Houston 0.14 0.704 1.21 4.2 2.084 4.368 12.706
Tennessee 0.0 0.002 0.012 0.242 0.006 0.102 0.364
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.0 0.0 0.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.002 0.006
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 33.96 20.578 7.974 0.25 15.964 12.15 90.876
Detroit 29.412 20.312 7.986 0.166 21.57 12.332 91.778
Green Bay 12.28 17.668 10.728 1.204 19.688 17.702 79.27
Seattle 11.088 9.246 9.196 0.276 19.066 15.788 64.66
Philadelphia 7.55 15.83 30.044 3.628 4.59 8.496 70.138
Dallas 4.244 11.776 23.868 0.668 7.294 12.946 60.796
San Francisco 1.416 3.552 2.358 0.066 10.446 15.288 33.126
New Orleans 0.038 0.9 5.75 71.474 0.006 0.038 78.206
Washington 0.0 0.038 1.436 0.422 0.25 1.61 3.756
Minnesota 0.012 0.054 0.07 0.018 0.682 1.956 2.792
Carolina 0.0 0.004 0.068 15.468 0.0 0.048 15.588
Atlanta 0.0 0.004 0.052 6.22 0.0 0.022 6.298
NY Giants 0.0 0.006 0.39 0.1 0.074 0.452 1.022
Chicago 0.0 0.032 0.05 0.008 0.332 1.05 1.472
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.01 0.038 0.122 0.2
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.0 0.0 0.022

Generated: Wed Nov 12 22:34:39 EST 2014

2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 9

November 6th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 42.744 37.83 19.4 0.026
Miami 44.498 34.874 20.49 0.138
Buffalo 12.758 27.284 59.486 0.472
NY Jets 0.0 0.012 0.624 99.364

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 34.742 28.808 24.38 12.07
Cincinnati 38.904 24.414 20.794 15.888
Baltimore 10.164 24.212 30.264 35.36
Cleveland 16.19 22.566 24.562 36.682

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 94.024 5.544 0.424 0.008
Houston 5.084 65.016 23.476 6.424
Tennessee 0.796 23.432 54.396 21.376
Jacksonville 0.096 6.008 21.704 72.192

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 78.312 18.904 2.782 0.002
Kansas City 19.078 61.01 19.848 0.064
San Diego 2.608 20.068 77.07 0.254
Oakland 0.002 0.018 0.3 99.68

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 55.976 31.172 10.364 2.488
Dallas 37.326 40.11 16.888 5.676
Washington 4.044 17.39 39.342 39.224
NY Giants 2.654 11.328 33.406 52.612

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 44.87 47.504 6.796 0.83
Detroit 52.408 39.062 7.484 1.046
Chicago 2.07 9.016 48.06 40.854
Minnesota 0.652 4.418 37.66 57.27

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 75.606 21.422 2.828 0.144
Carolina 21.832 64.074 12.702 1.392
Atlanta 2.474 12.782 66.468 18.276
Tampa Bay 0.088 1.722 18.002 80.188

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 64.914 26.65 7.178 1.258
Seattle 27.446 42.204 24.822 5.528
San Francisco 6.984 27.368 49.148 16.5
St Louis 0.656 3.778 18.852 76.714

Generated: Wed Nov 05 23:27:58 EST 2014

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 41.294 20.398 12.1 4.52 8.794 5.19 92.296
New England 13.134 12.114 10.28 7.216 14.162 12.746 69.652
Miami 12.192 13.348 11.4 7.558 13.23 11.956 69.684
Indianapolis 8.94 18.65 21.398 45.036 0.184 0.372 94.58
Cincinnati 7.304 10.42 12.524 8.656 6.904 9.542 55.35
Kansas City 7.13 5.136 4.284 2.528 23.678 13.768 56.524
Pittsburgh 5.94 10.146 12.458 6.198 9.254 10.52 54.516
Buffalo 1.79 2.794 3.884 4.29 7.146 8.476 28.38
Cleveland 1.436 4.042 6.44 4.272 4.846 7.736 28.772
Baltimore 0.336 1.746 3.61 4.472 4.596 7.992 22.752
San Diego 0.426 0.732 0.742 0.708 5.472 8.0 16.08
Houston 0.078 0.468 0.802 3.736 1.572 3.168 9.824
Tennessee 0.0 0.006 0.078 0.712 0.162 0.534 1.492
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.096 0.0 0.0 0.096
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.002
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 37.896 18.774 6.914 1.33 15.282 9.602 89.798
Detroit 24.156 18.508 8.48 1.264 21.542 12.644 86.594
Green Bay 12.502 17.914 10.79 3.664 17.516 15.326 77.712
Seattle 10.018 8.66 6.878 1.89 19.008 14.866 61.32
Philadelphia 7.538 14.5 23.378 10.56 4.368 7.328 67.672
Dallas 4.174 10.352 19.15 3.65 7.186 11.422 55.934
New Orleans 1.908 6.692 15.506 51.5 0.212 0.834 76.652
San Francisco 1.336 2.854 2.014 0.78 8.398 11.934 27.316
Chicago 0.294 0.73 0.75 0.296 3.072 5.514 10.656
Carolina 0.04 0.346 2.16 19.286 0.302 1.254 23.388
Minnesota 0.082 0.188 0.238 0.144 1.438 3.444 5.534
NY Giants 0.032 0.28 1.384 0.958 0.77 2.292 5.716
Washington 0.006 0.114 2.01 1.914 0.556 2.476 7.076
St Louis 0.018 0.078 0.29 0.27 0.342 1.004 2.002
Atlanta 0.0 0.01 0.056 2.408 0.008 0.058 2.54
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.086 0.0 0.002 0.09

Generated: Wed Nov 05 23:27:58 EST 2014

Playoff Forecast Software is now updated for 2014

November 1st, 2014

Due to a number of factors, I am several weeks late in updating the software for 2014. However, that situation has been remedied and the software is now ready for forecasts of the 2014 season. I will begin posting the playoff forecast summaries here, beginning this coming week.

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 15

December 19th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

html>

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 95.968 4.032 0.0 0.0
Miami 4.032 91.4 4.568 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 4.568 60.7 34.732
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 34.732 65.268

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 91.016 8.984 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 8.984 79.02 11.996 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 11.996 88.004 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 83.866 16.134 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 16.134 83.866 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 89.014 10.986 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 10.986 89.014 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 76.18 23.82 0.0 0.0
Dallas 23.82 76.18 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 48.912 25.886 25.202 0.0
Green Bay 30.954 34.132 34.914 0.0
Detroit 20.134 39.982 39.884 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 69.562 30.438 0.0 0.0
Carolina 30.438 69.562 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 74.374 25.626
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 25.626 74.374

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.296 0.704 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.704 97.248 2.048 0.0
Arizona 0.0 2.048 97.952 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 18 21:07:20 EST 2013

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 73.926 13.552 0.726 0.81 10.986 0.0 100.0
New England 15.496 39.28 24.804 16.388 0.0 3.534 99.502
Kansas City 9.714 1.272 0.0 0.0 89.014 0.0 100.0
Cincinnati 0.102 26.004 55.5 9.41 0.0 4.176 95.192
Indianapolis 0.762 18.214 12.764 68.26 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.83 4.24 3.914 0.0 15.434 24.418
Miami 0.0 0.848 1.966 1.218 0.0 73.526 77.558
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.09 3.09
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.24
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 99.296 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.704 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.376 69.186 0.0 0.0 16.314 13.606 99.482
Carolina 0.178 30.26 0.0 0.0 31.622 26.8 88.86
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 52.404 23.776 0.0 0.0 76.18
Chicago 0.0 0.0 28.122 20.79 0.0 0.0 48.912
San Francisco 0.15 0.554 0.0 0.0 49.846 47.402 97.952
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 14.61 16.344 0.0 0.0 30.954
Detroit 0.0 0.0 3.828 16.306 0.0 0.0 20.134
Dallas 0.0 0.0 1.036 22.784 0.0 0.0 23.82
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.514 12.192 13.706
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 18 21:07:20 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 14

December 11th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.092 1.908 0.0 0.0
Miami 1.908 83.402 13.524 1.166
NY Jets 0.0 14.124 67.27 18.606
Buffalo 0.0 0.566 19.206 80.228

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 98.892 1.108 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 1.108 73.036 24.992 0.864
Pittsburgh 0.0 20.98 51.968 27.052
Cleveland 0.0 4.876 23.04 72.084

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 80.26 18.866 0.874
Jacksonville 0.0 19.74 79.048 1.212
Houston 0.0 0.0 2.086 97.914

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 98.054 1.946 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 1.946 98.054 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 94.918 5.082
Oakland 0.0 0.0 5.082 94.918

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 81.982 17.78 0.238 0.0
Dallas 18.018 80.568 1.414 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 1.652 96.27 2.078
Washington 0.0 0.0 2.078 97.922

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 70.856 23.542 5.602 0.0
Chicago 12.71 44.658 42.632 0.0
Green Bay 16.434 31.8 51.766 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 94.596 5.404 0.0 0.0
Carolina 5.404 94.596 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 51.102 48.898
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 48.898 51.102

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 97.572 2.428 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 2.428 91.628 5.944 0.0
Arizona 0.0 5.944 93.972 0.084
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.084 99.916

Generated: Wed Dec 11 22:10:26 EST 2013

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 78.992 15.408 3.41 0.244 1.946 0.0 100.0
New England 15.61 38.088 36.556 7.838 0.246 1.602 99.94
Cincinnati 4.114 41.944 49.656 3.178 0.068 0.618 99.578
Kansas City 1.242 0.564 0.14 0.0 95.598 2.432 99.976
Indianapolis 0.042 3.712 8.322 87.924 0.0 0.0 100.0
Miami 0.0 0.22 1.314 0.374 2.082 62.408 66.398
Baltimore 0.0 0.064 0.602 0.442 0.06 22.636 23.804
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.51 4.51
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.122 4.122
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.828 0.828
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 0.76
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.042 0.042
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.024
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.016
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 94.01 3.512 0.05 0.0 2.384 0.044 100.0
New Orleans 5.756 86.954 1.886 0.0 3.862 1.48 99.938
Philadelphia 0.008 2.348 71.062 8.564 0.332 1.892 84.206
Carolina 0.092 4.982 0.33 0.0 52.058 28.612 86.074
San Francisco 0.134 2.202 0.092 0.0 37.516 53.0 92.944
Detroit 0.0 0.0 12.352 58.504 0.002 0.18 71.038
Chicago 0.0 0.0 6.74 5.97 0.006 0.116 12.832
Dallas 0.0 0.002 5.1 12.916 0.012 0.826 18.856
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 2.388 14.046 0.0 0.216 16.65
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.828 13.634 17.462
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 11 22:10:26 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 13

December 5th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 96.62 3.38 0.0 0.0
Miami 3.362 76.408 14.92 5.31
NY Jets 0.018 10.7 45.678 43.604
Buffalo 0.0 9.512 39.402 51.086

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 98.238 1.568 0.19 0.004
Baltimore 1.474 45.62 46.2 6.706
Pittsburgh 0.284 39.122 31.892 28.702
Cleveland 0.004 13.69 21.718 64.588

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.932 0.068 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.068 87.758 10.39 1.784
Jacksonville 0.0 7.478 45.34 47.182
Houston 0.0 4.696 44.27 51.034

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 98.178 1.822 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 1.822 97.392 0.786 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.786 84.476 14.738
Oakland 0.0 0.0 14.738 85.262

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 65.516 31.67 2.814 0.0
Dallas 34.29 61.988 3.722 0.0
NY Giants 0.194 6.342 88.32 5.144
Washington 0.0 0.0 5.144 94.856

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 84.684 13.302 1.996 0.018
Green Bay 9.994 41.53 48.214 0.262
Chicago 5.32 45.132 48.816 0.732
Minnesota 0.002 0.036 0.974 98.988

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 79.762 20.238 0.0 0.0
Carolina 20.238 79.762 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 57.446 42.554
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 42.554 57.446

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.134 0.866 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.866 83.316 15.818 0.0
Arizona 0.0 15.818 81.022 3.16
St Louis 0.0 0.0 3.16 96.84

Generated: Wed Dec 04 23:14:18 EST 2013

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 76.95 15.276 5.27 0.682 1.804 0.018 100.0
New England 13.534 29.842 36.4 16.844 0.922 2.178 99.72
Cincinnati 7.106 40.348 34.914 15.87 0.218 0.91 99.366
Indianapolis 1.338 13.608 20.96 64.026 0.0 0.004 99.936
Kansas City 1.072 0.562 0.172 0.016 90.442 6.882 99.146
Miami 0.0 0.268 1.888 1.206 5.336 45.746 54.444
Baltimore 0.0 0.096 0.388 0.99 0.636 17.688 19.798
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.28 0.204 11.56 12.048
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.064 0.024 4.522 4.614
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.414 4.94 5.354
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.0 2.272 2.29
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.646 1.646
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.91 0.914
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.696 0.696
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.028
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 98.254 0.862 0.018 0.0 0.852 0.014 100.0
New Orleans 1.346 77.162 1.254 0.0 16.508 3.416 99.686
Carolina 0.334 19.388 0.512 0.004 59.658 15.484 95.38
Philadelphia 0.0 1.652 42.69 21.174 0.856 4.516 70.888
Detroit 0.0 0.108 42.27 42.306 0.016 0.382 85.082
San Francisco 0.066 0.758 0.04 0.002 16.386 60.16 77.412
Dallas 0.0 0.07 8.386 25.834 0.224 2.436 36.95
Chicago 0.0 0.0 2.872 2.448 0.008 0.272 5.6
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 1.882 8.112 0.02 0.788 10.802
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.076 0.118 0.0 0.172 0.366
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.472 12.36 17.832
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.002
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 04 23:14:18 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 12

November 27th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.344 2.466 0.19 0.0
NY Jets 0.47 37.698 33.94 27.892
Miami 1.586 39.964 29.384 29.066
Buffalo 0.6 19.872 36.486 43.042

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 92.982 6.06 0.872 0.086
Pittsburgh 5.126 57.326 20.654 16.894
Baltimore 1.712 21.092 42.426 34.77
Cleveland 0.18 15.522 36.048 48.25

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 97.22 2.75 0.03 0.0
Tennessee 2.756 88.634 7.908 0.702
Houston 0.02 6.71 56.552 36.718
Jacksonville 0.004 1.906 35.51 62.58

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 89.98 9.89 0.13 0.0
Kansas City 10.008 87.496 2.494 0.002
San Diego 0.012 2.592 85.92 11.476
Oakland 0.0 0.022 11.456 88.522

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 65.508 31.982 2.5 0.01
Dallas 34.154 59.686 6.03 0.13
NY Giants 0.332 7.194 71.646 20.828
Washington 0.006 1.138 19.824 79.032

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 47.344 35.304 17.116 0.236
Green Bay 35.756 30.682 33.486 0.076
Chicago 16.9 33.96 48.438 0.702
Minnesota 0.0 0.054 0.96 98.986

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.152 9.848 0.0 0.0
Carolina 9.848 90.15 0.002 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.002 61.824 38.174
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 38.174 61.826

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 97.57 2.284 0.146 0.0
San Francisco 2.14 69.118 27.622 1.12
Arizona 0.29 28.206 68.236 3.268
St Louis 0.0 0.392 3.996 95.612

Generated: Wed Nov 27 19:38:59 EST 2013

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 72.016 14.238 3.3 0.426 9.794 0.196 99.97
New England 13.67 32.83 33.058 17.786 0.224 1.436 99.004
Cincinnati 4.94 34.808 36.788 16.446 0.37 2.884 96.236
Kansas City 7.646 1.95 0.356 0.056 85.092 3.998 99.098
Indianapolis 1.722 15.558 23.378 56.562 0.01 0.372 97.602
Miami 0.002 0.282 0.858 0.444 1.408 21.784 24.778
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.096 1.134 3.896 0.646 19.068 24.84
Baltimore 0.0 0.154 0.506 1.052 0.184 7.714 9.61
Tennessee 0.002 0.062 0.43 2.262 0.216 11.092 14.064
NY Jets 0.0 0.016 0.106 0.348 0.066 8.584 9.12
San Diego 0.002 0.004 0.004 0.002 1.934 15.23 17.176
Buffalo 0.0 0.002 0.048 0.55 0.0 2.414 3.014
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.146 0.042 4.332 4.554
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.014 0.034
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.88 0.894
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.002 0.006

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 65.284 31.958 0.328 0.0 1.962 0.402 99.934
New Orleans 34.022 55.498 0.63 0.002 8.55 1.19 99.892
Carolina 0.62 8.984 0.242 0.002 51.172 25.406 86.426
Philadelphia 0.0 1.138 40.986 23.384 0.908 3.552 69.968
Detroit 0.0 0.092 23.454 23.798 0.194 1.598 49.136
San Francisco 0.06 1.98 0.094 0.006 20.122 44.68 66.942
Green Bay 0.0 0.012 15.162 20.582 0.07 0.948 36.774
Dallas 0.0 0.072 10.276 23.806 0.298 2.438 36.89
Chicago 0.0 0.002 8.754 8.144 0.096 0.774 17.77
Arizona 0.014 0.264 0.012 0.0 16.608 18.716 35.614
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.062 0.27 0.006 0.152 0.49
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.0 0.0 0.006
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.142 0.156
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 27 19:38:59 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 11

November 21st, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 87.916 9.72 2.09 0.274
NY Jets 5.824 47.378 28.684 18.114
Miami 4.224 26.922 30.748 38.106
Buffalo 2.036 15.98 38.478 43.506

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 96.35 3.332 0.284 0.034
Cleveland 1.408 43.5 35.31 19.782
Pittsburgh 1.656 39.032 28.03 31.282
Baltimore 0.586 14.136 36.376 48.902

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 98.17 1.752 0.078 0.0
Tennessee 1.456 70.264 27.664 0.616
Houston 0.374 27.63 66.746 5.25
Jacksonville 0.0 0.354 5.512 94.134

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 87.214 12.764 0.022 0.0
Kansas City 12.786 86.422 0.786 0.006
San Diego 0.0 0.774 76.65 22.576
Oakland 0.0 0.04 22.542 77.418

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 74.438 21.83 3.688 0.044
Dallas 21.718 46.36 27.882 4.04
NY Giants 3.706 26.96 49.434 19.9
Washington 0.138 4.85 18.996 76.016

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 57.596 29.402 12.988 0.014
Green Bay 26.348 33.588 39.792 0.272
Chicago 16.056 36.992 46.752 0.2
Minnesota 0.0 0.018 0.468 99.514

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 88.582 11.418 0.0 0.0
Carolina 11.418 88.554 0.028 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.02 58.46 41.52
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.008 41.512 58.48

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.196 0.774 0.03 0.0
San Francisco 0.63 58.91 37.892 2.568
Arizona 0.174 39.586 56.666 3.574
St Louis 0.0 0.73 5.412 93.858

Generated: Wed Nov 20 23:45:37 EST 2013

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 80.896 5.0 1.202 0.116 12.662 0.118 99.994
Kansas City 11.708 0.902 0.162 0.014 85.02 1.858 99.664
Cincinnati 2.468 52.468 28.43 12.984 0.082 1.98 98.412
New England 3.404 17.256 32.842 34.414 0.278 5.824 94.018
Indianapolis 1.518 22.936 32.336 41.38 0.004 0.262 98.436
Miami 0.006 0.908 1.938 1.372 0.818 18.982 24.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.214 1.574 4.036 0.264 25.516 31.604
Cleveland 0.0 0.166 0.448 0.794 0.102 13.132 14.642
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.054 0.34 1.262 0.098 8.478 10.232
Tennessee 0.0 0.042 0.37 1.044 0.066 7.69 9.212
Baltimore 0.0 0.048 0.19 0.348 0.024 3.432 4.042
Buffalo 0.0 0.006 0.162 1.868 0.0 4.218 6.254
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.368 0.0 0.518 0.892
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.544 6.268 6.812
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.038 1.724 1.762
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 72.714 25.59 0.858 0.034 0.67 0.102 99.968
New Orleans 26.916 59.394 2.182 0.09 10.074 1.086 99.742
Carolina 0.264 9.636 1.424 0.094 47.182 23.638 82.238
Philadelphia 0.01 2.57 37.302 34.556 1.448 3.784 79.67
Detroit 0.048 1.876 33.552 22.12 3.478 7.356 68.43
Green Bay 0.0 0.078 11.162 15.108 0.99 5.45 32.788
Chicago 0.002 0.176 9.528 6.35 2.438 7.454 25.948
San Francisco 0.026 0.474 0.104 0.026 14.464 28.576 43.67
Dallas 0.0 0.074 3.198 18.446 0.738 3.334 25.79
Arizona 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.004 18.348 17.822 36.344
NY Giants 0.0 0.002 0.67 3.034 0.152 1.22 5.078
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.138 0.002 0.056 0.196
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.118 0.134
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.004
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 20 23:45:37 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 10

November 14th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 84.118 14.326 1.458 0.098
NY Jets 12.734 59.258 20.612 7.396
Miami 2.316 17.396 39.786 40.502
Buffalo 0.832 9.02 38.144 52.004

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 91.932 6.872 1.066 0.13
Cleveland 5.59 48.274 29.426 16.71
Baltimore 1.258 18.054 40.454 40.234
Pittsburgh 1.22 26.8 29.054 42.926

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 84.36 13.6 2.028 0.012
Tennessee 13.008 54.808 31.27 0.914
Houston 2.622 31.06 61.03 5.288
Jacksonville 0.01 0.532 5.672 93.786

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 73.472 26.378 0.15 0.0
Kansas City 26.5 72.288 1.212 0.0
San Diego 0.028 1.326 87.472 11.174
Oakland 0.0 0.008 11.166 88.826

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 67.786 26.17 5.468 0.576
Dallas 27.596 46.202 22.41 3.792
NY Giants 3.484 20.774 46.986 28.756
Washington 1.134 6.854 25.136 66.876

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 61.092 31.722 7.182 0.004
Green Bay 32.162 39.75 27.894 0.194
Chicago 6.746 28.494 64.084 0.676
Minnesota 0.0 0.034 0.84 99.126

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 81.064 18.932 0.004 0.0
Carolina 18.936 80.868 0.194 0.002
Atlanta 0.0 0.196 81.198 18.606
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.004 18.604 81.392

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 96.322 3.592 0.086 0.0
San Francisco 3.556 79.766 15.798 0.88
Arizona 0.12 16.006 74.884 8.99
St Louis 0.002 0.636 9.232 90.13

Generated: Wed Nov 13 23:43:22 EST 2013

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 67.278 5.174 0.922 0.098 25.858 0.57 99.9
Kansas City 24.892 1.46 0.138 0.01 71.052 2.084 99.636
New England 4.716 25.452 31.738 22.212 0.524 8.274 92.916
Cincinnati 2.056 46.818 29.356 13.702 0.162 3.528 95.622
Indianapolis 1.014 16.778 25.036 41.532 0.076 2.806 87.242
NY Jets 0.018 1.746 5.458 5.512 0.758 29.916 43.408
Tennessee 0.01 0.848 3.278 8.872 0.092 8.176 21.276
Cleveland 0.002 0.952 1.89 2.746 0.078 11.46 17.128
Miami 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.716 0.22 9.604 12.14
Baltimore 0.0 0.196 0.378 0.684 0.028 3.912 5.198
San Diego 0.014 0.008 0.004 0.002 1.11 12.238 13.376
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.05 0.326 0.844 0.032 3.176 4.428
Houston 0.0 0.018 0.256 2.348 0.0 2.174 4.796
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.712 0.002 1.656 2.49
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.01
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.008 0.426 0.434

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 74.138 19.494 2.5 0.19 3.192 0.35 99.864
New Orleans 22.566 50.676 7.056 0.766 10.558 6.162 97.784
Carolina 0.812 13.364 4.164 0.596 34.414 22.616 75.966
Detroit 0.678 8.526 39.156 12.732 4.12 9.01 74.222
San Francisco 1.656 1.54 0.33 0.03 34.842 30.092 68.49
Philadelphia 0.034 3.644 20.708 43.4 0.968 3.05 71.804
Green Bay 0.088 2.162 19.274 10.638 2.816 9.106 44.084
Chicago 0.0 0.302 4.314 2.13 1.876 6.328 14.95
Dallas 0.008 0.212 2.1 25.276 0.304 1.914 29.814
Arizona 0.02 0.076 0.022 0.002 6.822 10.646 17.588
NY Giants 0.0 0.002 0.36 3.122 0.054 0.494 4.032
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.016 1.118 0.008 0.112 1.254
St Louis 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.112 0.138
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.008 0.01
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 13 23:43:22 EST 2013