December 31st, 2007
With the conclusion of the NFL season yesterday, it became possible to determine the NFL draft selection order. This year there was a 3-way tie in record and strength of schedule between Atlanta, Kansas City and Oakland for the 4th, 5th and 6th slots. This caused a great deal of confusion with erroneous reports of draft order or procedures coming from numerous outlets including the Atlanta Journal Constitution and several local Kansas City media outlets. The NFL itself took about 18 hours to make sure they were getting it right.
I’ve been very interested in this question for the last few weeks since I am a Chiefs fan. Using my software I was able to correctly call the draft order and the specific order of the upcoming coinflips the second the Jets winning FG sailed through the uprights. It’s all documented in the link below. I called the draft order before the NFL did.
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=177667
This was a pretty strenuous test of the NFL tiebreaking procedures that I’ve coded into my program, considering that many media outlets trying to sort through the tiebreakers by hand made mistakes. You can bank on the tiebreakers in my software to give you the right answer.
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December 18th, 2007
I may try to put something up about predicted draft order later in the week since the playoff races are virtually decided, save for one NFC spot.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
74.94 |
25.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
25.06 |
74.94 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
98.54 |
1.46 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.46 |
98.54 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
99.82 |
0.18 |
0.0 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.18 |
99.0 |
0.82 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.82 |
99.18 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
99.88 |
0.12 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
77.98 |
22.02 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.12 |
21.9 |
77.98 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
93.96 |
6.04 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
6.04 |
57.92 |
36.04 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
36.04 |
63.96 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
98.1 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
1.9 |
95.62 |
2.48 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.48 |
97.52 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
96.34 |
3.66 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
3.66 |
96.34 |
0.0 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
99.9 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.1 |
91.58 |
8.32 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.32 |
91.68 |
Generated: Tue Dec 18 15:54:04 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
66.02 |
33.98 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
0.0 |
24.74 |
50.2 |
0.06 |
23.28 |
98.28 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.24 |
15.82 |
0.86 |
69.96 |
95.88 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
98.96 |
0.98 |
99.94 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.12 |
5.78 |
5.9 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
68.82 |
31.18 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Green Bay |
31.18 |
68.82 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
48.46 |
40.66 |
89.12 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
38.86 |
26.62 |
65.48 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.1 |
21.72 |
29.82 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.58 |
10.78 |
15.36 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 18 15:54:04 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
December 11th, 2007
I’ve never seen the races so close to determined this early in the season. The improved bbnflstats.com predictions are partially responsible for the increased certainty, but more than that the way the season has played out there is just really clear stratification of the teams within the conferences.
AFC
NE
IND
PIT — could switch to the 4 seed
SD — could switch to the 3 seed
JAX
CLE — could lose out to Buffalo, Denver or Tennessee
NFC
DAL
GB
SEA
TB
NYG - could drop to 6th
MIN - could rise to 5th or drop their spot to NO, WAS, or ARZ
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
93.14 |
6.86 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
6.86 |
93.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
98.48 |
1.52 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.52 |
98.48 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
99.96 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.04 |
98.32 |
1.64 |
0.0 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
1.64 |
96.26 |
2.1 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
97.9 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
97.3 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
2.7 |
96.52 |
0.76 |
0.02 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.58 |
78.58 |
20.84 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.2 |
20.66 |
79.14 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
98.66 |
1.34 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
1.34 |
67.26 |
31.4 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
31.4 |
68.6 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
92.72 |
6.36 |
0.92 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
6.06 |
89.08 |
4.86 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
1.22 |
4.56 |
94.22 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
98.1 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
1.9 |
97.52 |
0.58 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.58 |
99.42 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
99.42 |
0.58 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.02 |
57.7 |
42.28 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.56 |
41.72 |
57.72 |
Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
99.98 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.02 |
99.2 |
0.72 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
0.7 |
61.44 |
31.0 |
0.24 |
6.08 |
99.46 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
34.58 |
62.72 |
0.0 |
0.56 |
97.86 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.04 |
3.22 |
3.6 |
6.04 |
58.26 |
71.16 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
92.46 |
6.66 |
99.16 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
2.66 |
0.02 |
2.36 |
5.08 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
19.88 |
20.18 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
6.2 |
7.1 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
95.52 |
4.26 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Green Bay |
4.44 |
91.88 |
3.44 |
0.24 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Seattle |
0.04 |
3.74 |
86.68 |
9.54 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.12 |
9.66 |
90.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
75.24 |
22.08 |
97.32 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
21.02 |
46.14 |
67.16 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.52 |
20.66 |
23.18 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.22 |
5.54 |
6.76 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.58 |
4.58 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.74 |
0.74 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
December 4th, 2007
Big winners:
San Diego
Tennessee
Buffalo
Minnesota
Big Losers:
Cleveland
Denver
Washington
Philadelphia
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
99.96 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.04 |
99.92 |
0.04 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
99.96 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
97.4 |
2.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
2.6 |
93.04 |
4.36 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
4.36 |
88.26 |
7.38 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.38 |
92.62 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
99.84 |
0.16 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.16 |
90.34 |
9.48 |
0.02 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
9.5 |
89.64 |
0.86 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.88 |
99.12 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
98.02 |
1.98 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
1.98 |
73.58 |
21.74 |
2.7 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
23.52 |
61.1 |
15.38 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.92 |
17.16 |
81.92 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
88.6 |
8.84 |
2.56 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
6.22 |
58.98 |
34.8 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
5.18 |
32.18 |
62.64 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
90.58 |
7.32 |
2.1 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
6.7 |
82.34 |
10.96 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
2.72 |
10.34 |
86.94 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
77.24 |
19.56 |
3.2 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
19.24 |
73.8 |
6.96 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
3.52 |
6.64 |
89.84 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
96.28 |
3.72 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
3.72 |
95.62 |
0.66 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.06 |
54.82 |
45.12 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.6 |
44.52 |
54.88 |
Generated: Tue Dec 04 21:30:05 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
99.7 |
0.22 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.26 |
94.64 |
4.84 |
0.1 |
0.14 |
0.02 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.04 |
4.98 |
71.38 |
21.0 |
0.34 |
1.9 |
99.64 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22.02 |
76.0 |
0.0 |
0.18 |
98.2 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.16 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
86.46 |
10.38 |
97.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.68 |
0.92 |
5.18 |
41.18 |
48.96 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.98 |
0.04 |
2.04 |
4.06 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.0 |
26.96 |
33.96 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.84 |
17.04 |
17.88 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
96.2 |
3.5 |
0.24 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Green Bay |
3.68 |
86.52 |
6.34 |
3.46 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Seattle |
0.06 |
4.9 |
50.66 |
40.66 |
1.84 |
1.26 |
99.38 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.06 |
5.08 |
42.76 |
52.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
54.74 |
30.94 |
85.68 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.72 |
1.64 |
11.02 |
16.38 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
35.22 |
34.76 |
69.98 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
8.9 |
11.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.3 |
5.42 |
7.72 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.98 |
5.38 |
7.36 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.6 |
0.68 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 04 21:30:05 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
November 28th, 2007
The good news is that these predictions incorporate Brian Burke’s individual game odds. You can (and should) read more about Brian’s work here. The plan is to use Brian’s game forecasts from here forward. The bad news is that in the process of converting over to Brian’s game predictions, I’ve mucked something up in the code. It only effects the Java Webstart version of the code (it runs fine when I compile and run it on my machine). I should have that fixed within a day or so.
Here are this week’s predictions.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
99.42 |
0.58 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.42 |
76.34 |
23.24 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.16 |
23.08 |
76.76 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
90.28 |
9.7 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
9.72 |
87.78 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
2.52 |
91.64 |
5.84 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.84 |
94.16 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
97.54 |
2.46 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
2.46 |
92.64 |
4.88 |
0.02 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
4.66 |
82.64 |
12.7 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.24 |
12.48 |
87.28 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
77.74 |
19.24 |
3.02 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
19.88 |
65.8 |
13.96 |
0.36 |
| Kansas City |
2.38 |
14.92 |
79.42 |
3.28 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.04 |
3.6 |
96.36 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
75.86 |
14.14 |
10.0 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
10.82 |
48.6 |
40.58 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
13.32 |
37.26 |
49.42 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
73.96 |
21.26 |
4.78 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
23.14 |
67.56 |
9.3 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
2.9 |
11.18 |
85.92 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
99.78 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.22 |
78.82 |
15.64 |
5.32 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
10.62 |
60.16 |
29.22 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
10.34 |
24.2 |
65.46 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
94.28 |
5.72 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
5.72 |
92.04 |
2.02 |
0.22 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
1.46 |
83.1 |
15.44 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.78 |
14.88 |
84.34 |
Generated: Wed Nov 28 00:01:58 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
99.66 |
0.18 |
0.16 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.3 |
91.92 |
5.26 |
0.06 |
2.32 |
0.14 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.04 |
6.02 |
73.86 |
10.36 |
1.78 |
6.78 |
98.84 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
1.8 |
0.66 |
0.0 |
81.9 |
13.16 |
97.52 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.02 |
10.36 |
67.36 |
0.08 |
2.78 |
80.6 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.06 |
8.82 |
0.84 |
10.72 |
52.92 |
73.36 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.88 |
19.0 |
0.12 |
4.84 |
24.84 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.38 |
0.0 |
0.16 |
2.54 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.9 |
14.78 |
17.68 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
2.96 |
3.04 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
1.02 |
1.06 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.46 |
0.52 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
73.18 |
25.12 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Green Bay |
26.72 |
68.96 |
3.6 |
0.72 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.04 |
4.5 |
56.68 |
38.56 |
0.02 |
0.12 |
99.92 |
| Seattle |
0.06 |
1.42 |
38.26 |
54.54 |
1.18 |
1.86 |
97.32 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
5.68 |
1.06 |
6.06 |
12.84 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
53.84 |
23.82 |
77.66 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22.86 |
23.84 |
46.7 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.68 |
13.4 |
22.08 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.2 |
4.3 |
10.78 |
15.3 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.04 |
15.36 |
22.4 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
3.54 |
4.14 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.38 |
0.94 |
1.32 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.18 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Wed Nov 28 00:01:58 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
November 20th, 2007
This post marks the end of one era and the beginning of another. Up until now, my playoff predictions have been pretty much a one man show. Beginning next week, I’ll be using Brian Burke’s team ratings http://www.bbnflstats.com/ to predict the odds of individual games. I’m really excited about this collaboration, as I think it will improve the accuracy of the predictions. Brian’s fully documented team rating methods compliment the hands-on software approach I’ve used. We’re entering the time of the NFL season where scenario analysis for your team becomes very worthwhile. There may be some minor changes to the appearance of the software, but the overall functionality of the software will be the same, except for better accuracy. I’ll do a full quantitative evaluation over the off season.
This is probably as good as place as any to also acknowledge the contributions of Mike M. SteeleFan. He encouraged me to take my predictions from a mostly private hobby to a publically-distributed website. He also goaded me into learning Java to make it possible, as well as provided feedback on the graphical interface. Thanks, Mike.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
99.46 |
0.54 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.32 |
78.3 |
21.38 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.22 |
21.16 |
78.62 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
75.24 |
24.4 |
0.36 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
24.7 |
73.5 |
1.66 |
0.14 |
| Cincinnati |
0.04 |
1.58 |
55.56 |
42.82 |
| Baltimore |
0.02 |
0.52 |
42.42 |
57.04 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
84.6 |
12.32 |
3.0 |
0.08 |
| Jacksonville |
12.54 |
58.74 |
26.48 |
2.24 |
| Tennessee |
2.8 |
27.1 |
60.56 |
9.54 |
| Houston |
0.06 |
1.84 |
9.96 |
88.14 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
55.52 |
29.18 |
14.82 |
0.48 |
| Denver |
33.04 |
46.52 |
19.6 |
0.84 |
| Kansas City |
11.44 |
23.78 |
59.36 |
5.42 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.52 |
6.22 |
93.26 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
95.06 |
4.86 |
0.06 |
0.02 |
| NY Giants |
4.78 |
78.5 |
12.34 |
4.38 |
| Washington |
0.08 |
9.74 |
44.96 |
45.22 |
| Philadelphia |
0.08 |
6.9 |
42.64 |
50.38 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
96.76 |
3.24 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
3.24 |
85.74 |
10.46 |
0.56 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
9.76 |
63.46 |
26.78 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
1.26 |
26.08 |
72.66 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
91.42 |
7.24 |
1.28 |
0.06 |
| Carolina |
5.16 |
50.24 |
37.92 |
6.68 |
| New Orleans |
3.34 |
37.88 |
42.82 |
15.96 |
| Atlanta |
0.08 |
4.64 |
17.98 |
77.3 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
67.14 |
32.64 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
32.86 |
65.46 |
1.54 |
0.14 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
1.4 |
57.44 |
41.16 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.5 |
40.8 |
58.7 |
Generated: Mon Nov 19 23:59:45 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
96.26 |
3.34 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
2.58 |
70.16 |
11.32 |
0.54 |
10.54 |
3.48 |
98.62 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.96 |
11.88 |
50.34 |
12.06 |
3.44 |
7.26 |
85.94 |
| Jacksonville |
0.18 |
10.04 |
2.22 |
0.1 |
51.92 |
21.94 |
86.4 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
1.86 |
19.68 |
3.16 |
7.74 |
19.06 |
51.5 |
| Tennessee |
0.02 |
2.1 |
0.64 |
0.04 |
22.62 |
33.4 |
58.82 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.44 |
9.34 |
45.74 |
0.2 |
1.36 |
57.08 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.18 |
5.54 |
27.32 |
0.32 |
3.06 |
36.42 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.46 |
10.98 |
0.0 |
0.36 |
11.8 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
1.06 |
4.3 |
5.42 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.14 |
5.5 |
7.64 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.16 |
0.2 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.12 |
0.16 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Green Bay |
50.4 |
41.44 |
4.42 |
0.5 |
2.52 |
0.64 |
99.92 |
| Dallas |
47.46 |
41.04 |
5.82 |
0.74 |
3.98 |
0.86 |
99.9 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.72 |
7.82 |
42.02 |
40.86 |
0.2 |
0.84 |
92.46 |
| NY Giants |
0.64 |
3.48 |
0.62 |
0.04 |
68.8 |
14.56 |
88.14 |
| Seattle |
0.2 |
3.82 |
35.44 |
27.68 |
2.2 |
6.56 |
75.9 |
| Detroit |
0.58 |
1.96 |
0.52 |
0.18 |
7.32 |
27.74 |
38.3 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.32 |
7.98 |
24.56 |
0.64 |
7.5 |
41.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.92 |
3.24 |
0.7 |
4.36 |
10.22 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.02 |
1.22 |
2.1 |
0.74 |
4.72 |
8.8 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.1 |
15.58 |
22.76 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
4.6 |
13.62 |
18.3 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.14 |
0.22 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.28 |
0.38 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Mon Nov 19 23:59:45 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 13th, 2007
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
99.8 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.2 |
99.78 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
78.54 |
21.46 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.02 |
21.44 |
78.54 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
95.42 |
4.4 |
0.18 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
4.46 |
84.56 |
8.48 |
2.5 |
| Baltimore |
0.1 |
5.74 |
47.92 |
46.24 |
| Cincinnati |
0.02 |
5.3 |
43.42 |
51.26 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
70.32 |
19.34 |
10.0 |
0.34 |
| Jacksonville |
16.56 |
41.76 |
39.06 |
2.62 |
| Tennessee |
13.1 |
37.54 |
45.36 |
4.0 |
| Houston |
0.02 |
1.36 |
5.58 |
93.04 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
58.18 |
29.04 |
12.32 |
0.46 |
| Kansas City |
26.06 |
36.58 |
35.28 |
2.08 |
| Denver |
15.74 |
33.64 |
46.98 |
3.64 |
| Oakland |
0.02 |
0.74 |
5.42 |
93.82 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
93.96 |
5.16 |
0.82 |
0.06 |
| NY Giants |
4.16 |
73.02 |
16.28 |
6.54 |
| Washington |
1.8 |
15.28 |
49.48 |
33.44 |
| Philadelphia |
0.08 |
6.54 |
33.42 |
59.96 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
84.9 |
14.22 |
0.86 |
0.02 |
| Detroit |
14.86 |
75.46 |
8.42 |
1.26 |
| Chicago |
0.24 |
6.92 |
54.98 |
37.86 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
3.4 |
35.74 |
60.86 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
70.96 |
18.74 |
7.82 |
2.48 |
| Carolina |
14.42 |
40.6 |
31.24 |
13.74 |
| New Orleans |
9.86 |
29.12 |
34.84 |
26.18 |
| Atlanta |
4.76 |
11.54 |
26.1 |
57.6 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
49.32 |
50.32 |
0.36 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
50.58 |
47.9 |
1.46 |
0.06 |
| San Francisco |
0.06 |
1.04 |
66.06 |
32.84 |
| St Louis |
0.04 |
0.74 |
32.12 |
67.1 |
Generated: Mon Nov 12 23:27:31 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
79.04 |
16.84 |
3.88 |
0.04 |
0.18 |
0.02 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
16.72 |
39.48 |
34.54 |
4.68 |
1.5 |
1.46 |
98.38 |
| Indianapolis |
2.74 |
27.92 |
35.36 |
4.3 |
13.18 |
8.7 |
92.2 |
| Jacksonville |
0.94 |
7.74 |
7.36 |
0.52 |
31.24 |
23.96 |
71.76 |
| Tennessee |
0.5 |
5.48 |
6.38 |
0.74 |
28.04 |
24.56 |
65.7 |
| San Diego |
0.06 |
1.52 |
7.08 |
49.52 |
0.86 |
2.74 |
61.78 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.82 |
3.22 |
0.42 |
16.04 |
21.86 |
42.36 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.12 |
1.56 |
24.38 |
0.6 |
1.94 |
28.6 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.42 |
15.3 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
17.54 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.12 |
0.02 |
6.7 |
9.58 |
16.48 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.04 |
0.4 |
1.48 |
1.98 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.68 |
1.54 |
2.24 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.08 |
0.86 |
0.96 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
51.52 |
37.66 |
4.34 |
0.44 |
3.52 |
1.74 |
99.22 |
| Green Bay |
41.98 |
39.0 |
3.56 |
0.36 |
11.66 |
2.76 |
99.32 |
| Detroit |
4.52 |
9.04 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
26.7 |
23.38 |
64.94 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.9 |
5.84 |
40.46 |
23.76 |
0.46 |
2.22 |
73.64 |
| NY Giants |
0.72 |
3.1 |
0.32 |
0.02 |
40.3 |
25.54 |
70.0 |
| Seattle |
0.18 |
1.86 |
20.96 |
26.32 |
1.06 |
2.92 |
53.3 |
| Washington |
0.16 |
1.22 |
0.36 |
0.06 |
7.4 |
13.36 |
22.56 |
| Arizona |
0.02 |
0.88 |
12.06 |
37.62 |
0.46 |
2.4 |
53.44 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.74 |
8.48 |
5.2 |
1.5 |
5.62 |
21.54 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.46 |
6.14 |
3.26 |
1.22 |
3.76 |
14.84 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.14 |
2.62 |
0.02 |
0.94 |
5.72 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.14 |
0.06 |
0.04 |
2.54 |
7.02 |
9.8 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
2.42 |
6.12 |
8.62 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.74 |
2.22 |
2.96 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
Generated: Mon Nov 12 23:27:30 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 6th, 2007
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
99.64 |
0.36 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.36 |
97.64 |
1.74 |
0.26 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
1.06 |
66.42 |
32.52 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.94 |
31.84 |
67.22 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
81.34 |
15.92 |
2.74 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
14.9 |
58.08 |
25.24 |
1.78 |
| Baltimore |
3.74 |
25.16 |
63.4 |
7.7 |
| Cincinnati |
0.02 |
0.84 |
8.62 |
90.52 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
70.16 |
24.18 |
5.46 |
0.2 |
| Tennessee |
24.8 |
53.2 |
19.98 |
2.02 |
| Jacksonville |
4.98 |
21.34 |
62.46 |
11.22 |
| Houston |
0.06 |
1.28 |
12.1 |
86.56 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Kansas City |
55.02 |
31.46 |
12.48 |
1.04 |
| San Diego |
36.24 |
47.02 |
15.16 |
1.58 |
| Denver |
8.44 |
19.68 |
57.18 |
14.7 |
| Oakland |
0.3 |
1.84 |
15.18 |
82.68 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
65.42 |
24.56 |
9.5 |
0.52 |
| NY Giants |
23.38 |
48.16 |
25.24 |
3.22 |
| Washington |
11.08 |
25.52 |
54.34 |
9.06 |
| Philadelphia |
0.12 |
1.76 |
10.92 |
87.2 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
73.06 |
25.9 |
0.98 |
0.06 |
| Detroit |
26.82 |
69.78 |
3.28 |
0.12 |
| Minnesota |
0.1 |
3.72 |
61.5 |
34.68 |
| Chicago |
0.02 |
0.6 |
34.24 |
65.14 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
57.88 |
26.88 |
13.2 |
2.04 |
| New Orleans |
22.76 |
34.56 |
35.66 |
7.02 |
| Carolina |
18.1 |
34.8 |
38.66 |
8.44 |
| Atlanta |
1.26 |
3.76 |
12.48 |
82.5 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
63.08 |
28.2 |
8.58 |
0.14 |
| Arizona |
28.08 |
43.6 |
28.0 |
0.32 |
| San Francisco |
8.82 |
28.0 |
61.04 |
2.14 |
| St Louis |
0.02 |
0.2 |
2.38 |
97.4 |
Generated: Mon Nov 05 23:24:33 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
74.94 |
16.62 |
7.88 |
0.2 |
0.22 |
0.1 |
99.96 |
| Indianapolis |
9.84 |
37.96 |
20.12 |
2.24 |
17.3 |
6.84 |
94.3 |
| Pittsburgh |
10.86 |
22.48 |
42.16 |
5.84 |
3.82 |
5.76 |
90.92 |
| Tennessee |
3.36 |
15.38 |
5.56 |
0.5 |
42.66 |
16.64 |
84.1 |
| Jacksonville |
0.52 |
2.62 |
1.64 |
0.2 |
16.44 |
25.66 |
47.08 |
| Cleveland |
0.2 |
2.08 |
10.68 |
1.94 |
8.92 |
20.48 |
44.3 |
| Kansas City |
0.14 |
1.36 |
5.42 |
48.1 |
0.46 |
1.4 |
56.88 |
| San Diego |
0.06 |
0.76 |
3.32 |
32.1 |
0.8 |
2.36 |
39.4 |
| Baltimore |
0.06 |
0.68 |
2.68 |
0.32 |
4.5 |
9.38 |
17.62 |
| Buffalo |
0.02 |
0.06 |
0.22 |
0.06 |
4.1 |
7.84 |
12.3 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.26 |
8.18 |
0.04 |
0.6 |
9.08 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.66 |
2.78 |
3.5 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.34 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.22 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Green Bay |
46.3 |
23.76 |
2.86 |
0.14 |
18.5 |
5.6 |
97.16 |
| Dallas |
31.56 |
28.06 |
5.46 |
0.34 |
13.92 |
11.68 |
91.02 |
| Detroit |
12.48 |
11.98 |
2.2 |
0.16 |
25.6 |
19.82 |
72.24 |
| NY Giants |
5.6 |
14.8 |
2.7 |
0.28 |
23.46 |
22.96 |
69.8 |
| Washington |
1.84 |
6.92 |
2.08 |
0.24 |
12.14 |
19.38 |
42.6 |
| Tampa Bay |
1.12 |
7.04 |
36.18 |
13.54 |
1.1 |
3.7 |
62.68 |
| Carolina |
0.46 |
2.14 |
12.4 |
3.1 |
1.44 |
5.0 |
24.54 |
| New Orleans |
0.3 |
3.28 |
16.98 |
2.2 |
2.52 |
7.06 |
32.34 |
| Seattle |
0.28 |
1.8 |
15.78 |
45.22 |
0.08 |
0.36 |
63.52 |
| Arizona |
0.04 |
0.1 |
1.76 |
26.18 |
0.0 |
0.26 |
28.34 |
| Chicago |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.56 |
0.64 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.66 |
8.16 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
8.84 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.84 |
0.38 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.36 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.52 |
1.82 |
2.44 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.66 |
1.68 |
2.46 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
Generated: Mon Nov 05 23:24:33 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
October 30th, 2007
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
99.98 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.02 |
89.68 |
8.54 |
1.76 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
6.02 |
56.96 |
37.02 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
4.28 |
34.5 |
61.22 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
78.84 |
16.68 |
3.94 |
0.54 |
| Cleveland |
16.4 |
59.56 |
19.64 |
4.4 |
| Baltimore |
4.44 |
18.84 |
53.62 |
23.1 |
| Cincinnati |
0.32 |
4.92 |
22.8 |
71.96 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
81.76 |
14.76 |
3.42 |
0.06 |
| Tennessee |
10.34 |
48.08 |
40.24 |
1.34 |
| Jacksonville |
7.9 |
36.92 |
52.42 |
2.76 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.24 |
3.92 |
95.84 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
38.2 |
39.86 |
18.52 |
3.42 |
| Kansas City |
46.28 |
31.24 |
18.96 |
3.52 |
| Denver |
14.62 |
24.24 |
44.98 |
16.16 |
| Oakland |
0.9 |
4.66 |
17.54 |
76.9 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
55.94 |
28.56 |
12.84 |
2.66 |
| NY Giants |
31.56 |
44.2 |
20.96 |
3.28 |
| Washington |
11.72 |
23.4 |
50.64 |
14.24 |
| Philadelphia |
0.78 |
3.84 |
15.56 |
79.82 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
71.78 |
26.16 |
1.88 |
0.18 |
| Detroit |
27.62 |
65.74 |
6.14 |
0.5 |
| Chicago |
0.4 |
4.34 |
53.18 |
42.08 |
| Minnesota |
0.2 |
3.76 |
38.8 |
57.24 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
43.06 |
32.34 |
22.2 |
2.4 |
| Tampa Bay |
34.14 |
33.12 |
27.68 |
5.06 |
| New Orleans |
22.2 |
31.68 |
40.44 |
5.68 |
| Atlanta |
0.6 |
2.86 |
9.68 |
86.86 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
52.42 |
38.5 |
9.06 |
0.02 |
| Arizona |
42.56 |
44.58 |
12.8 |
0.06 |
| San Francisco |
5.02 |
16.92 |
76.36 |
1.7 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.78 |
98.22 |
Generated: Mon Oct 29 22:48:34 EDT 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
56.18 |
34.16 |
8.8 |
0.84 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
35.82 |
34.42 |
9.78 |
1.74 |
13.04 |
3.42 |
98.22 |
| Pittsburgh |
4.36 |
14.86 |
41.46 |
18.16 |
2.18 |
5.1 |
86.12 |
| Tennessee |
2.18 |
6.76 |
1.04 |
0.36 |
41.4 |
24.3 |
76.04 |
| Jacksonville |
1.1 |
5.02 |
1.58 |
0.2 |
32.44 |
30.42 |
70.76 |
| Kansas City |
0.18 |
1.78 |
11.88 |
32.44 |
1.16 |
5.08 |
52.52 |
| San Diego |
0.1 |
1.66 |
10.28 |
26.16 |
1.92 |
5.76 |
45.88 |
| Cleveland |
0.06 |
1.02 |
9.98 |
5.34 |
4.9 |
14.3 |
35.6 |
| Baltimore |
0.02 |
0.26 |
2.1 |
2.06 |
1.0 |
3.46 |
8.9 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.06 |
2.94 |
11.62 |
0.88 |
3.44 |
18.94 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
0.06 |
0.5 |
1.46 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.28 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.22 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.58 |
2.52 |
3.12 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.96 |
1.18 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Green Bay |
38.8 |
24.84 |
6.64 |
1.5 |
13.7 |
7.94 |
93.42 |
| Dallas |
31.18 |
19.62 |
4.38 |
0.76 |
19.44 |
10.92 |
86.3 |
| NY Giants |
12.06 |
15.28 |
3.74 |
0.48 |
27.3 |
17.74 |
76.6 |
| Detroit |
9.58 |
11.46 |
5.12 |
1.46 |
14.96 |
17.16 |
59.74 |
| Carolina |
2.48 |
6.42 |
18.62 |
15.54 |
2.3 |
5.46 |
50.82 |
| Washington |
2.62 |
6.68 |
1.94 |
0.48 |
14.34 |
19.78 |
45.84 |
| Seattle |
1.54 |
6.12 |
20.88 |
23.88 |
1.0 |
2.82 |
56.24 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.66 |
3.0 |
11.5 |
18.98 |
1.1 |
3.34 |
38.58 |
| New Orleans |
0.54 |
3.1 |
10.96 |
7.6 |
1.92 |
5.96 |
30.08 |
| Arizona |
0.4 |
2.86 |
14.4 |
24.9 |
0.88 |
2.38 |
45.82 |
| Philadelphia |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.18 |
0.1 |
1.76 |
3.44 |
5.98 |
| Chicago |
0.04 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.16 |
0.86 |
1.6 |
2.86 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.06 |
1.24 |
3.72 |
0.02 |
0.32 |
5.36 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.06 |
0.08 |
0.4 |
1.04 |
1.64 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
0.36 |
0.02 |
0.1 |
0.72 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Mon Oct 29 22:48:34 EDT 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
October 16th, 2007
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
99.88 |
0.12 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.08 |
51.12 |
30.08 |
18.72 |
| NY Jets |
0.04 |
32.88 |
42.12 |
24.96 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
15.88 |
27.8 |
56.32 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
75.04 |
18.64 |
5.0 |
1.32 |
| Baltimore |
18.46 |
45.58 |
25.3 |
10.66 |
| Cleveland |
4.2 |
24.28 |
42.7 |
28.82 |
| Cincinnati |
2.3 |
11.5 |
27.0 |
59.2 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
69.74 |
24.0 |
5.5 |
0.76 |
| Jacksonville |
25.58 |
47.68 |
21.04 |
5.7 |
| Tennessee |
3.78 |
20.64 |
44.06 |
31.52 |
| Houston |
0.9 |
7.68 |
29.4 |
62.02 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
40.46 |
31.98 |
20.24 |
7.32 |
| Denver |
27.26 |
29.8 |
30.38 |
12.56 |
| Kansas City |
28.1 |
28.24 |
27.54 |
16.12 |
| Oakland |
4.18 |
9.98 |
21.84 |
64.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
63.0 |
24.22 |
10.36 |
2.42 |
| NY Giants |
23.46 |
43.72 |
26.34 |
6.48 |
| Washington |
12.24 |
26.86 |
45.12 |
15.78 |
| Philadelphia |
1.3 |
5.2 |
18.18 |
75.32 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
74.32 |
20.76 |
4.2 |
0.72 |
| Detroit |
21.52 |
50.78 |
20.68 |
7.02 |
| Chicago |
3.4 |
20.16 |
45.04 |
31.4 |
| Minnesota |
0.76 |
8.3 |
30.08 |
60.86 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
46.96 |
50.18 |
2.66 |
0.2 |
| Tampa Bay |
52.38 |
43.66 |
3.64 |
0.32 |
| New Orleans |
0.34 |
2.46 |
49.8 |
47.4 |
| Atlanta |
0.32 |
3.7 |
43.9 |
52.08 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
50.58 |
33.0 |
15.7 |
0.72 |
| Arizona |
33.74 |
37.58 |
27.72 |
0.96 |
| San Francisco |
15.62 |
28.92 |
52.9 |
2.56 |
| St Louis |
0.06 |
0.5 |
3.68 |
95.76 |
Generated: Tue Oct 16 00:01:00 EDT 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
51.76 |
29.36 |
16.22 |
2.54 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
99.92 |
| Indianapolis |
27.7 |
27.14 |
12.5 |
2.4 |
18.8 |
6.24 |
94.78 |
| Pittsburgh |
11.72 |
20.86 |
31.86 |
10.6 |
4.9 |
6.84 |
86.78 |
| Jacksonville |
6.44 |
12.38 |
5.56 |
1.2 |
38.54 |
16.0 |
80.12 |
| Baltimore |
1.52 |
3.84 |
8.78 |
4.32 |
9.14 |
14.52 |
42.12 |
| San Diego |
0.24 |
2.02 |
8.32 |
29.88 |
1.9 |
5.18 |
47.54 |
| Tennessee |
0.32 |
1.6 |
1.54 |
0.32 |
14.0 |
17.58 |
35.36 |
| Kansas City |
0.16 |
0.94 |
5.04 |
21.96 |
1.12 |
4.9 |
34.12 |
| Denver |
0.08 |
1.04 |
5.88 |
20.26 |
1.48 |
4.94 |
33.68 |
| Houston |
0.06 |
0.34 |
0.46 |
0.04 |
4.84 |
9.8 |
15.54 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.28 |
2.18 |
1.74 |
3.0 |
8.0 |
15.2 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.12 |
0.58 |
3.48 |
0.56 |
1.7 |
6.44 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.08 |
1.04 |
1.18 |
1.32 |
3.06 |
6.68 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.3 |
0.42 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.32 |
0.88 |
1.28 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
32.86 |
17.34 |
9.82 |
2.98 |
14.82 |
9.22 |
87.04 |
| Green Bay |
26.88 |
22.68 |
17.18 |
7.58 |
7.78 |
5.9 |
88.0 |
| Carolina |
11.4 |
13.58 |
14.28 |
7.7 |
14.06 |
11.94 |
72.96 |
| Tampa Bay |
9.38 |
13.66 |
15.12 |
14.22 |
9.04 |
8.04 |
69.46 |
| NY Giants |
7.18 |
8.62 |
5.62 |
2.04 |
22.7 |
16.92 |
63.08 |
| Detroit |
3.98 |
5.74 |
6.88 |
4.92 |
6.9 |
9.34 |
37.76 |
| Washington |
3.42 |
4.28 |
3.42 |
1.12 |
14.18 |
15.62 |
42.04 |
| Seattle |
2.82 |
7.88 |
13.94 |
25.94 |
2.34 |
4.82 |
57.74 |
| Arizona |
1.02 |
3.6 |
7.38 |
21.74 |
1.88 |
4.64 |
40.26 |
| San Francisco |
0.76 |
1.5 |
3.88 |
9.48 |
1.78 |
4.08 |
21.48 |
| Chicago |
0.14 |
0.58 |
1.4 |
1.28 |
1.7 |
3.66 |
8.76 |
| Philadelphia |
0.14 |
0.42 |
0.5 |
0.24 |
1.76 |
3.76 |
6.82 |
| New Orleans |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.18 |
0.12 |
0.16 |
0.42 |
0.92 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.34 |
0.32 |
0.84 |
1.34 |
2.94 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.26 |
0.06 |
0.3 |
0.68 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
Generated: Tue Oct 16 00:01:00 EDT 2007
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