Archive for November, 2006

Comparison of DVOA and NFL-Forecast Playoff Predictions, After Week 12

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

Here is this week’s comparison Mike Harris’ playoff predictions  based on DVOA power ratings and my playoff forecasts. The two forecasts are really starting to converge.

 Edited to correct data entry error.

                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
NewEngland    98.70%     88.64        99.30%     94.46
NYJets            1.00%       11.04       12.60%     35.8
Miami              0.10%       0.14          0.90%       2.74
Buffalo            0.00%       0.18          0.60%       4.82
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
Indianapolis     99.80%     99.94        99.9%     99.98
Jacksonville     0.10%       0.06         26.60%    14.84
Houston           0.00%       0             0.00%     0.02
Tennessee       0.00%       0              0.00%      0.1
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
Baltimore         99.30%     95.08       99.90%     98.1
Cincinnati        0.60%       4.9          27.20%     33.12
Pittsburgh        0.00%       0.02        0.10%       0.22
Cleveland        0.00%       0             0.00%       0
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
SanDiego        92.90%     80.76        99.70%     98.32
Denver            4.40%       11.44       74.20%     70.56
KansasCity      2.60%       7.8           55.70%     46.92
Oakland           0.00%       0               0.00%       0
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
NYGiants         19.80%     24.22       75.60%     64.38
Philadelphia     4.50%       3.24         40.70%     17.26
Dallas              75.60%     72.06       97.80%     91.4
Washington     0.00%       0.48           1.70%       5.48
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
Chicago          100.00%   99.94        100.00%   99.98
GreenBay        0.00%       0                2.80%     1.18
Minnesota        0.00%       0.06          11.60%   18.04
Detroit             0.00%       0               0.00%       0
                                                                         
                      Division Championship               Playoff Odds    
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
NewOrleans     75.10%     67.62       92.00%     89.06
Carolina          24.50%     30.66       57.90%     61.6
Atlanta             30.00%     1.72        2.30%     10.48 
TampaBay       0.00%       0              0.00%       0.04
                                                                         
                      Division Championship               Playoff Odds    
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
Seattle             83.70%     79.98      88.00%     89.34.96
SanFrancisco  4.10%       14.72          6.00%     25.44
StLouis            12.10%     5.3          22.90%     26.32
Arizona           0.00%       0               0.00%       0.08

NFL playoff predictions 2006, after week 12

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

Things crystalized quite a bit in week 12. We now have a very good idea of 5 of the playoff teams in each conference, although Denver and the Giants are still a little squishy, both in their computer generated playoff odds and in their on the field play. So in each conference we have one, maybe two, playoff spots up from grabs. Those last slots probably won’t be firmed up until the last week of the season. Plus the teams that are likely playoff qualifiers are still slugging it out for seeding positions that yield home field advantage and first round byes.

Edited to correct data entry error 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 88.64 11.1 0.26 0.0
NY Jets 11.04 67.84 17.52 3.6
Buffalo 0.18 13.28 51.44 35.1
Miami 0.14 7.78 30.78 61.3

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 95.08 4.92 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 4.9 90.74 4.32 0.04
Pittsburgh 0.02 4.12 74.04 21.82
Cleveland 0.0 0.22 21.64 78.14

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.94 0.06 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.06 81.1 16.38 2.46
Tennessee 0.0 14.76 51.32 33.92
Houston 0.0 4.08 32.3 63.62

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 80.76 14.82 4.42 0.0
Denver 11.44 45.82 42.74 0.0
Kansas City 7.8 39.36 52.84 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 72.06 22.9 4.4 0.64
NY Giants 24.22 58.34 14.4 3.04
Philadelphia 3.24 13.14 48.2 35.42
Washington 0.48 5.62 33.0 60.9

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 99.94 0.06 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.06 61.8 36.24 1.9
Green Bay 0.0 37.62 58.94 3.44
Detroit 0.0 0.52 4.82 94.66

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 67.62 30.42 1.96 0.0
Carolina 30.66 48.5 20.68 0.16
Atlanta 1.72 20.98 72.46 4.84
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.1 4.9 95.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 79.98 16.28 3.74 0.0
St Louis 5.3 47.44 46.54 0.72
San Francisco 14.72 36.1 48.12 1.06
Arizona 0.0 0.18 1.6 98.22

Generated: Mon Dec 04 21:24:30 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 67.96 20.16 9.08 2.74 0.02 0.02 99.98
San Diego 16.48 28.86 27.78 7.64 13.58 3.98 98.32
Baltimore 13.04 34.74 31.04 16.26 1.5 1.52 98.1
New England 1.98 9.5 23.0 54.16 2.6 3.22 94.46
Denver 0.4 4.54 4.5 2.0 35.0 24.12 70.56
Kansas City 0.1 1.84 2.4 3.46 19.92 19.2 46.92
Cincinnati 0.04 0.3 0.94 3.62 12.3 15.92 33.12
NY Jets 0.0 0.06 1.2 9.78 8.1 16.66 35.8
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.0 5.06 9.72 14.84
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.18 1.38 3.26 4.82
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.54 2.06 2.74
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.2 0.22
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 93.44 5.32 0.98 0.2 0.04 0.0 99.98
New Orleans 4.28 24.36 23.76 15.22 13.62 7.82 89.06
Dallas 1.26 36.38 19.68 14.74 12.74 6.6 91.4
Seattle 0.66 19.74 29.46 30.12 4.2 5.16 89.34
NY Giants 0.26 7.8 7.36 8.8 22.72 17.44 64.38
Carolina 0.04 4.64 11.04 14.94 18.04 12.9 61.6
San Francisco 0.0 0.64 4.9 9.18 3.62 7.1 25.44
Philadelphia 0.02 0.52 1.36 1.34 4.78 9.24 17.26
St Louis 0.02 0.42 1.02 3.84 7.28 13.74 26.32
Minnesota 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.02 7.16 10.82 18.04
Atlanta 0.0 0.14 0.32 1.26 3.94 4.82 10.48
Washington 0.0 0.04 0.1 0.34 1.68 3.32 5.48
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.18 1.0 1.18
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Mon Dec 04 21:24:29 EST 2006

Comparison of DVOA and NFL-Forecast Playoff Predictions, after week 11

Tuesday, November 21st, 2006

I’m going to do these comparisons between Mike Harris’ playoff predictions  based on DVOA power ratings and my playoff forecasts for the remainder of the season. I think they will provide a basis for determining the predictive value of the DVOA based power ratings in comparison to power ratings based on wins and losses only.

 I’ve decided to use the playoff predictions based on the standard DVOA, rather than the Donovan McNabb adjusted version. Every team suffers injuries, and I don’t think you can consider an injury to one player in the whole league on an ad hoc basis. I also discovered that in week 10 I had mistakenly entered a Viking win over Green Bay, that was making my projections for the Vikings overly optimistic and to a lesser extent, penalizing the chances of the Packers. I fixed that in this weeks projections, but I haven’t gone back and fixed week 10 projections.

                         Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
NewEngland      97.80%      89.76           98.40%      94.18
NYJets              1.90%       10                8.40%       28.48
Miami               0.10%       0.14             0.40%       1.32
Buffalo              0.00%       0.1               0.30%       2.36
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
Indianapolis       95.70%      99.34           99.50%      99.94
Jacksonville       4.20%       0.66             59.20%      32.16
Houston            0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.14
Tennessee        0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.02
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
Baltimore          98.50%      96.64           99.10%      98
Cincinnati         1.10%       2.62             10.20%      18.94
Pittsburgh         0.30%       0.74             1.80%       1.76
Cleveland          0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.24
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
SanDiego          87.00%      62.6             99.60%      96.82
Denver              11.80%      31.96           88.60%      90.72
KansasCity       1.10%       5.44             33.70%      34.92
Oakland            0.00%       0                  0.00%       0
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
NYGiants          43.20%      62.2             89.40%      82.2
Philadelphia      8.00%       29.46           54.90%      27.92
Dallas               48.60%      8.34             93.60%      61.42
Washington       0.00%       0                  0.50%       0.54
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
Chicago            100.00%    99.94           100.00%    99.98
GreenBay         0.00%       0.04             7.50%       2.72
Minnesota         0.00%       0.02             4.60%       14.9
Detroit              0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.02
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
NewOrleans       51.50%      43.04           70.20%      75.84
Carolina            44.60%      43.84           62.50%      70.46
Atlanta              3.80%       13.12           7.60%       29.66
TampaBay        0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.42
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
Seattle              69.60%      72.32           72.50%      82.16
SanFrancisco    11.00%      21.64           12.60%      33.42
StLouis             19.20%      6.04             23.40%      18.34
Arizona             0.00%       0                  0.00%       0

Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 11

Tuesday, November 21st, 2006

 Edited to fix a week 10 data entry error.

 Not much changed this week in the AFC.

 In the NFC, everything has opened up quite a bit. Tiebreakers will play a huge role in the NFC race. If you are a fan of one of these teams, I encourage you to use the software on my main site to do scenario analysis.

If there is a particular analysis you’d like to see leave a comment and I’ll see what I can do.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 89.76 9.86 0.38 0.0
NY Jets 10.0 72.76 14.42 2.82
Buffalo 0.1 10.94 50.66 38.3
Miami 0.14 6.44 34.54 58.88

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 96.64 3.2 0.14 0.02
Cincinnati 2.62 75.56 19.46 2.36
Pittsburgh 0.74 18.24 61.46 19.56
Cleveland 0.0 3.0 18.94 78.06

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.34 0.66 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.66 92.3 6.24 0.8
Houston 0.0 3.38 50.84 45.78
Tennessee 0.0 3.66 42.92 53.42

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 62.6 30.54 6.86 0.0
Denver 31.96 52.06 15.98 0.0
Kansas City 5.44 17.4 77.04 0.12
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.12 99.88

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 62.2 29.6 7.94 0.26
Dallas 29.46 43.76 25.04 1.74
Philadelphia 8.34 25.52 55.38 10.76
Washington 0.0 1.12 11.64 87.24

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 99.94 0.06 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.02 56.6 37.56 5.82
Green Bay 0.04 41.36 51.62 6.98
Detroit 0.0 1.98 10.82 87.2

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 43.04 38.92 17.86 0.18
Carolina 43.84 35.02 20.72 0.42
Atlanta 13.12 25.72 56.52 4.64
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.34 4.9 94.76

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 72.32 22.54 5.12 0.02
San Francisco 21.64 42.1 34.88 1.38
St Louis 6.04 35.02 57.0 1.94
Arizona 0.0 0.34 3.0 96.66

Generated: Tue Nov 21 18:36:34 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 72.88 16.6 7.6 2.26 0.36 0.24 99.94
Baltimore 12.86 33.82 30.9 19.06 0.54 0.82 98.0
San Diego 9.5 24.06 23.04 6.0 25.96 8.26 96.82
Denver 2.96 15.74 10.34 2.92 44.82 13.94 90.72
New England 1.58 7.96 24.82 55.4 0.96 3.46 94.18
Kansas City 0.08 1.24 1.7 2.42 10.84 18.64 34.92
Jacksonville 0.1 0.28 0.24 0.04 9.38 22.12 32.16
Cincinnati 0.04 0.16 0.46 1.96 3.66 12.66 18.94
NY Jets 0.0 0.14 0.8 9.06 3.04 15.44 28.48
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.68 0.08 0.94 1.76
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.06 0.32 1.94 2.36
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.04 1.14 1.32
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.24
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 94.78 4.38 0.68 0.1 0.04 0.0 99.98
New Orleans 2.6 20.18 13.5 6.76 20.32 12.48 75.84
NY Giants 0.8 22.04 19.22 20.14 10.66 9.34 82.2
Carolina 0.84 16.96 14.38 11.66 14.44 12.18 70.46
Seattle 0.54 17.14 27.42 27.22 3.62 6.22 82.16
Dallas 0.36 12.78 8.3 8.02 19.18 12.78 61.42
Atlanta 0.04 2.54 4.38 6.16 7.48 9.06 29.66
San Francisco 0.0 1.96 6.4 13.28 4.82 6.96 33.42
Philadelphia 0.04 1.76 3.84 2.7 8.36 11.22 27.92
St Louis 0.0 0.24 1.86 3.94 3.84 8.46 18.34
Green Bay 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.72 1.96 2.72
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 6.22 8.66 14.9
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.3 0.54
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.36 0.42
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 21 18:36:33 EST 2006

Comparison of Football Outsiders DVOA and NFL-Forecast Playoff Predictions after week 10, 2006

Wednesday, November 15th, 2006

Football Outsiders (or more precisely, FO reader Mike Harris) has started doing playoff prediction simulations similar to those I have been doing here, except based on the DVOA power ratings.  Football Outsiders uses extensive play-by-play data for their power ratings. I use just the opposite approach, using only the out come of each game (won-loss, not score) and where the game was played as the basis of my power ratings. I am a frequent reader of Football Outsiders and have a lot of respect for their work. I’ve considered adding DVOA power ratings as an alternate power ranking scheme to my software, and building a win prediction model from the DVOA ratings, but the job thing has kept me pretty busy this fall. So I’m glad Mr. Harris has taken that off my to do list.

I thought it would be worthwhile to publish a side by side comparion. It is very interesting how closely the predictions based on the two power ranking methods compare, although there are some very significant differences. The difference in prediction for the Denver-SD division race is particularly interesting. SD is clearly better based on DVOA; watching the two teams play it is easy to see why. Denver seldom gets any style points for the games they have won this season. Yet my power rating system is more impressed by Denver because they have beaten three team with winning records (New England, Baltimore, Kansas City) while San Diego hasn’t beaten any. And that is the thing about Denver, they consistently find a way to win. San Diego on the other hand found a way to lose to the Ravens, a game they probably should have won. To some extent, I think that wins and losses captures some of the intangibles that DVOA or other statistical measures aren’t able to quantify. I’m not arguing that W-L is a better predictor of future wins than DVOA; rather, I think the two approaches are complementary. Furthermore, I feel a little more comfortable with some of the DVOA-based NFC predictions. In particular, Minnesota is looking very shaky after their fast start and San Francisco’s high power rating this week is an anomaly due to the large variances in my power ratings. The SF bug is something that I know how to fix, but don’t have time to code this season. On the other hand, it will be interesting to see if Dallas and Philadelphia do as well in the playoff race as projected by DVOA.

Very cool, Mike Harris and Football Outsiders, and welcome to the playoff forecasting business.

Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 10

Tuesday, November 14th, 2006

Barring a catastrophic collapse. five of six playoff qualifiers have been determined in the AFC: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Denver and San Diego. Four team are in the thick of the hunt for the final spot, in order of likelihood: Jets, Jags, Chiefs and Bengals.

 In the NFC, Chicago has about a 90% chance of taking the #1 seed. The Saints, Giants, and Seahawks look to be playoff teams. After that it is wide open. In order of likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs, the Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, Panthers, Falcons, 49ers and Rams are still in contention.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 81.18 18.1 0.7 0.02
NY Jets 18.4 70.6 9.64 1.36
Buffalo 0.16 5.7 45.48 48.66
Miami 0.26 5.6 44.18 49.96

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 99.0 0.94 0.06 0.0
Cincinnati 0.78 63.98 26.5 8.74
Cleveland 0.1 19.76 39.66 40.48
Pittsburgh 0.12 15.32 33.78 50.78

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.88 0.12 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.12 81.42 16.94 1.52
Houston 0.0 16.34 63.88 19.78
Tennessee 0.0 2.12 19.18 78.7

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 61.14 34.98 3.88 0.0
San Diego 37.18 54.78 8.0 0.04
Kansas City 1.68 10.16 82.02 6.14
Oakland 0.0 0.08 6.1 93.82

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 81.3 14.46 3.68 0.56
Dallas 10.04 37.3 39.86 12.8
Philadelphia 8.22 42.54 34.76 14.48
Washington 0.44 5.7 21.7 72.16

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 98.7 1.3 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 1.26 89.28 9.02 0.44
Green Bay 0.04 8.38 72.3 19.28
Detroit 0.0 1.04 18.68 80.28

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 73.8 19.98 6.18 0.04
Carolina 13.22 38.44 47.44 0.9
Atlanta 12.98 41.38 44.0 1.64
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.2 2.38 97.42

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 84.02 13.4 2.58 0.0
San Francisco 12.16 45.2 40.58 2.06
St Louis 3.82 40.9 53.04 2.24
Arizona 0.0 0.5 3.8 95.7

Generated: Tue Nov 14 00:52:57 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 85.88 9.96 3.76 0.28 0.02 0.08 99.98
Baltimore 7.94 38.2 41.22 11.64 0.22 0.26 99.48
Denver 3.98 34.62 20.02 2.52 31.42 5.0 97.56
San Diego 2.06 13.72 18.74 2.66 45.74 11.04 93.96
New England 0.12 2.98 14.24 63.84 1.56 6.84 89.58
Kansas City 0.0 0.42 0.6 0.66 5.9 14.86 22.44
NY Jets 0.0 0.06 1.12 17.22 3.82 18.06 40.28
Cincinnati 0.02 0.02 0.14 0.6 0.78 6.72 8.28
Jacksonville 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.0 9.66 27.76 37.54
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.06 0.1 2.52 2.72
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.14 0.16 1.04 1.36
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.26 0.04 1.22 1.52
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.04 0.56 0.72
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.68 4.18
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.34 0.38
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 88.52 8.68 1.32 0.18 1.18 0.12 100.0
New Orleans 6.42 29.7 22.3 15.38 8.14 6.54 88.48
NY Giants 2.54 30.34 24.58 23.84 4.54 5.08 90.92
Seattle 1.44 20.16 32.74 29.68 2.04 3.22 89.28
Minnesota 0.7 0.34 0.18 0.04 36.14 19.54 56.94
Dallas 0.18 2.9 3.34 3.62 11.28 14.7 36.02
Carolina 0.02 2.86 4.28 6.06 7.48 10.38 31.08
Atlanta 0.06 1.96 4.02 6.94 7.28 11.0 31.26
Philadelphia 0.08 1.7 2.94 3.5 12.16 14.0 34.38
San Francisco 0.02 0.88 3.06 8.2 2.72 5.86 20.74
St Louis 0.02 0.42 1.16 2.22 5.96 6.84 16.62
Washington 0.0 0.06 0.06 0.32 0.84 2.04 3.32
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.22 0.66 0.92
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.02
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 14 00:52:57 EST 2006

Playoff predictions 2006, after week 9

Tuesday, November 7th, 2006

In the AFC, three of the division winners all but determined: New England, Indianapolis, and Baltimore. In the Wild Card race, one of positions will almost certainly go to the second place finisher in the AFC West. The last Wild Card spot is between Jacksonville, Cincinnati, the Jets and the 3rd place AFC West team. In the AFC, you better have 10 wins if you are even thinking about the playoffs, 11 if you want to be very sure, and 12 if you don’t want to think about tiebreakers.

 

In the NFC, the Bears and Giants are the clear cut favorites to win their division. Many pundits predicted that the East race would go down to the wire, so the Giants’ large lead is a bit of a surprise. After that, New Orleans, Seattle, and Atlanta all have a greater than 70% chance of qualifying for the playoffs, but those chances include both division championships and wild card chances. After that, things get pretty muddy, with Minnesota, St. Louis, Carolina, Dallas and Philadelphia all in the race. Nine wins looks like they are probably enough wins, but you need 10 if you want to be safe, and 11 to absolutely guarantee it.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.08 2.88 0.04 0.0
NY Jets 2.78 75.0 18.7 3.52
Buffalo 0.12 18.3 58.44 23.14
Miami 0.02 3.82 22.82 73.34

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 90.22 9.5 0.28 0.0
Cincinnati 9.62 83.26 6.86 0.26
Cleveland 0.08 5.02 57.22 37.68
Pittsburgh 0.08 2.22 35.64 62.06

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 98.56 1.44 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 1.42 93.6 4.48 0.5
Houston 0.02 3.42 54.7 41.86
Tennessee 0.0 1.54 40.82 57.64

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 47.94 31.48 20.44 0.14
San Diego 36.72 35.9 27.24 0.14
Kansas City 15.34 32.6 51.2 0.86
Oakland 0.0 0.02 1.12 98.86

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 91.32 7.1 1.38 0.2
Dallas 4.26 41.7 37.96 16.08
Philadelphia 3.84 38.54 33.26 24.36
Washington 0.58 12.66 27.4 59.36

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 97.1 2.84 0.06 0.0
Minnesota 2.74 75.56 17.84 3.86
Green Bay 0.16 17.58 54.76 27.5
Detroit 0.0 4.02 27.34 68.64

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 60.16 30.94 8.84 0.06
Atlanta 33.02 47.98 18.4 0.6
Carolina 6.82 20.9 68.62 3.66
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.18 4.14 95.68

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 82.64 14.82 2.52 0.02
St Louis 14.32 64.32 20.56 0.8
San Francisco 3.04 20.08 66.16 10.72
Arizona 0.0 0.78 10.76 88.46

Generated: Mon Nov 06 23:29:34 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 78.86 12.16 5.5 2.04 1.04 0.28 99.88
Baltimore 7.0 22.42 25.34 35.46 1.82 2.44 94.48
New England 6.14 26.02 32.4 32.52 0.36 0.6 98.04
Denver 4.04 21.9 15.28 6.72 23.76 15.08 86.78
San Diego 2.84 11.96 12.96 8.96 25.42 17.54 79.68
Kansas City 0.48 4.16 5.96 4.74 20.62 23.72 59.68
Jacksonville 0.36 0.48 0.26 0.32 17.86 19.58 38.86
Cincinnati 0.28 0.88 1.76 6.7 6.88 13.32 29.82
NY Jets 0.0 0.02 0.5 2.26 1.88 5.2 9.86
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.0 0.3 0.38
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.38 0.4
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.34 1.36 1.82
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.0 0.08
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.14 0.16
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.04
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 55.96 24.78 11.76 4.6 1.12 1.1 99.32
NY Giants 22.84 24.08 21.08 23.32 1.58 1.88 94.78
New Orleans 13.16 21.94 17.58 7.48 20.44 9.3 89.9
Seattle 3.88 14.86 26.92 36.98 2.44 3.46 88.54
Atlanta 2.7 9.06 12.42 8.84 23.12 15.7 71.84
Minnesota 0.62 0.84 0.88 0.4 22.88 20.78 46.4
St Louis 0.42 1.4 3.68 8.82 7.02 10.68 32.02
Carolina 0.22 1.72 2.44 2.44 7.32 12.36 26.5
Dallas 0.1 0.88 1.2 2.08 7.02 10.68 21.96
Philadelphia 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.04 5.32 8.82 17.98
Washington 0.0 0.1 0.16 0.32 0.9 1.94 3.42
San Francisco 0.0 0.04 0.36 2.64 0.42 1.16 4.62
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.04 0.28 1.44 1.88
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.46 0.56
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.24 0.28
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Mon Nov 06 23:29:34 EST 2006