Archive for December, 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 16

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Some interesting scenarios for week 17:

The Jets are guaranteed the 5th seed if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.They cannot qualify for the 6th seed.

Likewise the Ravens are guaranteed a playoff spot if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.

Denver is the only one of the teams still in contention that can qualify for a playoff spot with a loss. However,  a win does not qualify them for a playoff spot.  In addition to a win, they need either a loss or tie from the Jets or Ravens.

A lot is at stake in the Cowboys-Eagles game. The winner could finish as high as the 2nd seed and the loser as low as the 6th seed.

Complete scenarios are available  from: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/12/nfl-playoff-scenarios.html

Single game probabilities are from Advanced NFL Stats:  http://www.advancednflstats.com/

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 88.8 11.2 0.0
Miami 0.0 11.2 88.8 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.0 88.38 11.62 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 11.62 88.38 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 41.94 41.98 16.08
Houston 0.0 49.6 20.62 29.78
Tennessee 0.0 8.46 37.4 54.14

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 57.46 42.54 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 42.54 57.46 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 87.14 12.86 0.0
Carolina 0.0 12.86 87.14 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Diego 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 0.0 82.6 17.4 0.0 0.0 100.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 17.4 82.6 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.54 0.0 66.54
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 55.02 82.42
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.62 25.46 29.08
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.08 13.8 15.88
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.96 4.26
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 1.44 1.5
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 0.32
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 42.54 0.0 0.0 24.74 32.72 100.0
Minnesota 0.0 26.44 50.02 23.54 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 17.96 27.82 11.68 0.0 42.54 100.0
Arizona 0.0 13.06 22.16 64.78 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.26 24.74 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 15

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.82 1.18 0.0 0.0
Miami 1.18 63.76 35.06 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 35.06 64.94 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 96.76 3.24 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 3.24 89.44 7.32 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 7.32 92.68 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 52.2 31.9 15.9
Tennessee 0.0 29.12 43.74 27.14
Houston 0.0 18.68 24.36 56.96

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 59.94 40.06 0.0 0.0
Dallas 40.06 20.84 39.1 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 39.1 60.9 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 91.74 8.26 0.0
Carolina 0.0 8.26 91.74 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 99.82 0.18 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.18 99.82 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 23 12:44:39 EST 2009

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Diego 0.0 97.62 2.38 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 2.38 70.4 26.04 0.0 0.12 98.94
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 26.88 69.88 0.06 1.4 98.22
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.26 2.98 53.78 20.34 77.36
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.86 40.68 71.54
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.08 1.1 0.76 6.92 8.86
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 8.72 16.22
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.62 5.36 9.98
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.14 12.0 14.14
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 2.88 3.02
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 1.58 1.72
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 99.58 0.42 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Minnesota 0.42 65.48 26.6 7.5 0.0 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 25.42 33.22 1.3 20.3 19.76 100.0
Dallas 0.0 5.22 21.2 13.64 1.26 20.92 62.24
Arizona 0.0 3.46 18.98 77.56 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.74 26.14 86.88
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.7 33.18 50.88
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 23 12:44:39 EST 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 14

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 88.78 9.22 1.94 0.06
NY Jets 3.58 56.54 38.68 1.2
Miami 7.6 33.92 57.84 0.64
Buffalo 0.04 0.32 1.54 98.1

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 97.42 2.58 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 2.58 90.32 7.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 7.1 92.9 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 69.22 23.26 7.52
Tennessee 0.0 16.88 47.38 35.74
Houston 0.0 13.9 29.36 56.74

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 94.28 5.72 0.0 0.0
Denver 5.72 94.28 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 87.66 12.34
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 12.34 87.66

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 75.8 21.28 2.92 0.0
Dallas 21.4 30.02 48.58 0.0
NY Giants 2.8 48.7 48.5 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 98.38 1.62 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 1.62 98.38 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 86.08 13.92 0.0
Carolina 0.0 13.92 86.08 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 97.96 2.04 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 2.04 96.44 1.52 0.0
Seattle 0.0 1.52 98.48 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Tue Dec 15 12:01:19 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Diego 0.0 86.7 6.36 1.22 5.18 0.48 99.94
Cincinnati 0.0 6.9 35.08 55.44 0.0 0.16 97.58
New England 0.0 2.12 53.18 33.48 0.06 2.6 91.44
Denver 0.0 4.28 1.14 0.3 72.04 19.36 97.12
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 2.16 1.42 0.7 12.48 16.76
Miami 0.0 0.0 1.32 6.28 0.36 5.74 13.7
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.76 1.82 17.78 34.8 55.16
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.84 20.8 24.64
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.0 0.04
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 1.78 1.82
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.14 1.14
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.66 0.66
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 98.32 1.68 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Minnesota 1.68 85.6 9.52 1.58 1.48 0.14 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 10.14 61.44 4.22 6.56 13.96 96.32
Arizona 0.0 0.98 19.88 77.1 0.0 0.48 98.44
Green Bay 0.0 1.42 0.2 0.0 83.28 13.08 97.98
Dallas 0.0 0.18 8.5 12.72 0.88 28.0 50.28
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.46 2.34 7.64 38.32 48.76
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.04 0.16 5.54 7.74
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.42 0.42
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.06
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 15 12:01:19 EST 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 13

Thursday, December 10th, 2009

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 93.04 6.04 0.86 0.06
NY Jets 3.5 64.62 29.7 2.18
Miami 3.36 28.38 64.24 4.02
Buffalo 0.1 0.96 5.2 93.74

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 98.46 1.54 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.52 54.54 44.94 0.0
Pittsburgh 1.02 43.92 55.06 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 93.22 5.76 1.02
Tennessee 0.0 3.2 60.5 36.3
Houston 0.0 3.58 33.74 62.68

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 79.16 20.84 0.0 0.0
Denver 20.84 79.16 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 84.54 15.46
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 15.46 84.54

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 43.94 30.66 25.4 0.0
NY Giants 28.5 37.14 34.36 0.0
Dallas 27.56 32.2 40.24 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 96.54 3.46 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 3.46 95.74 0.8 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.8 99.14 0.06
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.06 99.94

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 83.58 16.42 0.0
Carolina 0.0 16.42 83.58 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 98.66 1.3 0.04 0.0
San Francisco 1.3 80.9 17.8 0.0
Seattle 0.04 17.8 82.16 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Thu Dec 10 01:33:35 EST 2009

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 99.78 0.22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Diego 0.14 67.9 9.5 1.62 16.2 3.16 98.52
Cincinnati 0.0 14.76 46.42 37.28 0.0 0.18 98.64
Denver 0.08 14.76 5.24 0.76 49.84 20.28 90.96
New England 0.0 2.36 36.46 54.22 0.0 0.84 93.88
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 1.28 2.22 0.46 4.2 8.16
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.74 0.28 9.28 16.38 26.68
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.28 3.08 0.04 2.0 5.4
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 35.04 52.54
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.44 6.68 17.44 24.64
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.38 0.38
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 98.26 1.72 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 100.0
Minnesota 1.72 76.06 12.5 6.26 2.34 1.02 99.9
Arizona 0.0 9.72 37.08 51.86 0.0 0.24 98.9
Philadelphia 0.02 8.08 28.8 7.04 15.26 17.88 77.08
Green Bay 0.0 2.44 0.86 0.16 65.44 21.92 90.82
NY Giants 0.0 1.42 8.86 18.22 11.88 27.32 67.7
Dallas 0.0 0.56 11.9 15.1 4.7 28.98 61.24
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.28 1.52 3.1
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.06 0.1
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.8 0.88
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.08 0.1
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.18 0.18
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 10 01:33:35 EST 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 12

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Note that these predictions are based on updated team efficiency ratings, while the analysis of the AFC and NFC playoff races were based on last weeks team efficiencies. Therefore, there might be slight differences in the percentages below and the percentages in those two articles.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.14 1.64 0.18 0.04
NY Jets 0.78 64.54 24.22 10.46
Miami 0.84 21.42 53.18 24.56
Buffalo 0.24 12.4 22.42 64.94

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 82.8 15.44 1.76 0.0
Pittsburgh 12.48 47.54 39.98 0.0
Baltimore 4.72 37.02 58.26 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 58.36 23.42 18.22
Tennessee 0.0 17.98 45.54 36.48
Houston 0.0 23.66 31.04 45.3

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 78.32 21.68 0.0 0.0
Denver 21.68 78.32 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 55.92 44.08
Oakland 0.0 0.0 44.08 55.92

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 50.54 29.92 19.54 0.0
Philadelphia 33.14 42.14 24.72 0.0
NY Giants 16.32 27.94 55.48 0.26
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.26 99.74

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 99.74 0.26 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.26 97.94 1.8 0.0
Chicago 0.0 1.8 97.68 0.52
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.52 99.48

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 91.58 8.42 0.0
Carolina 0.0 8.4 90.62 0.98
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.02 0.96 99.02

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 83.24 16.68 0.08 0.0
San Francisco 16.74 74.08 9.18 0.0
Seattle 0.02 9.22 90.62 0.14
St Louis 0.0 0.02 0.12 99.86

Generated: Wed Dec 02 22:48:41 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 99.34 0.56 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Diego 0.36 51.42 17.9 8.64 11.64 6.34 96.3
New England 0.1 17.94 34.24 45.86 0.02 0.12 98.28
Cincinnati 0.02 15.9 31.76 35.12 1.5 8.42 92.72
Denver 0.18 11.8 6.74 2.96 32.42 25.84 79.94
Pittsburgh 0.0 1.96 7.56 2.96 29.5 21.1 63.08
Baltimore 0.0 0.42 1.4 2.9 16.08 18.26 39.06
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.18 0.6 0.24 2.86 3.88
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.72 0.02 0.48 1.34
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.72 11.24 18.96
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.0 0.02 0.26
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.82 4.6 5.42
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.72 0.76
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 85.74 14.14 0.12 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Minnesota 14.24 80.62 4.02 0.86 0.18 0.08 100.0
Dallas 0.02 1.3 36.02 13.2 9.24 21.62 81.4
Arizona 0.0 1.86 21.7 59.68 0.54 1.98 85.76
Philadelphia 0.0 1.56 28.66 2.92 19.1 23.6 75.84
NY Giants 0.0 0.3 8.26 7.76 8.7 20.12 45.14
Green Bay 0.0 0.22 0.04 0.0 60.08 25.06 85.4
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 1.18 15.56 0.98 2.9 20.62
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.18 4.4 5.58
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.06 0.08
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 02 22:48:41 EST 2009

NFC Wild Card Race

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Yesterday, I posted a summary of the AFC playoff race. Today I turn my attention to the NFC.  As a reminder, my approach is to tentatively declare Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, and Cardinals as division champs so that I can focus on the wild card races. The NFC East, and to a lesser extent the NFC West, are still up for grabs, but this assumption greatly simplifies the analysis.

Green Bay Packers. Overall, the Packers have a 77% chance of making the playoffs. They have games remaining against the Ravens, Bears, Steelers, Seahawks, and Cardinals. If they can get to 11 or 12 wins, they will almost certainly get a playoff spot. They can afford to lose 2 more games and still be very competitive for the wild card at 10-6. If both of those losses happen outside the conference, they have a better than 99% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose one conference game and one out-of-conference game, their odds drop to 96%. If both losses happen in the conference, their odds are about 90%. Three losses to finish 9-7 would drop their odds to 55%.

 

Philadelphia Eagles. Overall, the Eagles have a 73% chance of making the playoffs.  They have games remaining against the Falcons, Giants, Niners, Broncos, and Cowboys. That is a tough slate of games. If the Eagles can manage to win 11 or 12 games they are in for all intents and purposes. Two more losses would drop them to 10-6. If one of those losses is to Denver (an out-of-conference opponent), they will have a better than 96% chance of making the playoffs. The worst case scenario would be to lose both of their remaining games to division rivals (Dallas and NY), which would drop their playoff odds to 74%. Finishing with three more losses at 9-7 would drop their playoff odds to 31%.

New York Giants. Overall, the Giants currently have a 52% chance of making the playoffs. They have remaining games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins, Panthers, and Vikings.  Winning out gets them to 11 wins and a near certain playoff birth. The Giants can probably afford to lose one more game. Even if they lose their remaining game to the Eagles, and win the rest, they still have a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Dropping two games to finish 9-7 gives them about a 46% chance of making the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons currently have a 14% chance of making the playoffs. Winning their remaining games against the Eagles, Saints, Jets, Bills, and Bucs would give them 11 wins and a 99% chance of making the playoffs. However, dropping a single game to the Eagles would only give them a 46% chance to make the playoffs. A single loss to the Saints would give them better odds at 75%. Dropping both their next two games and then finishing 9-7 would only leave them a 4% chance of making the playoffs. They really need to win this weekend against the Eagles.

Intermission. There are several scenarios where an 11 win team could miss the playoffs in the NFC. Any of these teams is vulnerable to that happening. However, these occurrences are extremely rare among the thousands and thousands of simulations I ran for this analysis. If it starts looking more likely to happen, I’ll break down the tiebreakers.

San Francisco 49ers. Overall, the 49ers have a 17% chance of making the playoffs. If they finish 10-6 by winning all of their remaining games (Seahawks, Cardinals, Eagles, Lions, and Rams) they have a better than 99% of making the playoffs either as division champion or a wildcard. Losing one game will drop their record to 9-7, but their playoff odds remain fairly decent since they still have chances to win the division with this record. If they lose a game to the Cards, their odds drop to 54%. A single loss to the Eagles gives them a 66% chance of making the playoffs. And a loss to any other team gives them a 75% of making the playoffs.   If we consider the case where San Francisco finishes 9-7 while Arizona wins the division, the 49ers chance for a wild card slot drops to around 44%, comparable to most of the other teams in the wild card race..

Chicago Bears. The Bears only have a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. If they run the table to finish 9-7, their odds of making the playoffs are only 12%.

Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks only have a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. If they win the rest of their games to finish 9-7, they have a 7% chance of winning the division and a 13% chance of a wild card.

Carolina Panthers. The Panthers only have a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. If they win the rest of their games, they have a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Going up against the Pats, Vikings, Giants, and Saints doesn’t look promising.

Washington, Detroit, Tampa, and St.Louis are mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs.