Some interesting scenarios for week 17:
The Jets are guaranteed the 5th seed if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.They cannot qualify for the 6th seed.
Likewise the Ravens are guaranteed a playoff spot if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.
Denver is the only one of the teams still in contention that can qualify for a playoff spot with a loss. However, a win does not qualify them for a playoff spot. In addition to a win, they need either a loss or tie from the Jets or Ravens.
A lot is at stake in the Cowboys-Eagles game. The winner could finish as high as the 2nd seed and the loser as low as the 6th seed.
Complete scenarios are available from: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/12/nfl-playoff-scenarios.html
Single game probabilities are from Advanced NFL Stats: http://www.advancednflstats.com/
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New England | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NY Jets | 0.0 | 88.8 | 11.2 | 0.0 |
Miami | 0.0 | 11.2 | 88.8 | 0.0 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Cincinnati | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Baltimore | 0.0 | 88.38 | 11.62 | 0.0 |
Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 11.62 | 88.38 | 0.0 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Indianapolis | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 41.94 | 41.98 | 16.08 |
Houston | 0.0 | 49.6 | 20.62 | 29.78 |
Tennessee | 0.0 | 8.46 | 37.4 | 54.14 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Diego | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Denver | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Dallas | 57.46 | 42.54 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Philadelphia | 42.54 | 57.46 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NY Giants | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Minnesota | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Green Bay | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chicago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New Orleans | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Atlanta | 0.0 | 87.14 | 12.86 | 0.0 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 12.86 | 87.14 | 0.0 |
Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Arizona | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
San Francisco | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Seattle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Indianapolis | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
San Diego | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
New England | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.6 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.4 | 82.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 66.54 | 0.0 | 66.54 |
Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.4 | 55.02 | 82.42 |
Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.62 | 25.46 | 29.08 |
Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 15.88 |
Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 3.96 | 4.26 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.06 | 1.44 | 1.5 |
Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
New Orleans | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Philadelphia | 0.0 | 42.54 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.74 | 32.72 | 100.0 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 26.44 | 50.02 | 23.54 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Dallas | 0.0 | 17.96 | 27.82 | 11.68 | 0.0 | 42.54 | 100.0 |
Arizona | 0.0 | 13.06 | 22.16 | 64.78 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Green Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.26 | 24.74 | 100.0 |
NY Giants | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chicago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Seattle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009