Archive for October, 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 7

Tuesday, October 25th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 65.536 26.206 8.164 0.094
Buffalo 22.962 41.786 33.688 1.564
NY Jets 11.468 31.648 54.58 2.304
Miami 0.034 0.36 3.568 96.038

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 47.0 31.704 17.582 3.714
Pittsburgh 33.412 37.516 23.676 5.396
Cincinnati 18.328 26.552 44.54 10.58
Cleveland 1.26 4.228 14.202 80.31

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 88.17 10.118 1.684 0.028
Tennessee 8.658 62.656 26.004 2.682
Jacksonville 3.142 25.362 59.914 11.582
Indianapolis 0.03 1.864 12.398 85.708

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 58.336 27.224 11.714 2.726
Oakland 29.984 38.14 23.832 8.044
Kansas City 9.046 24.016 37.532 29.406
Denver 2.634 10.62 26.922 59.824

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 47.668 26.578 16.49 9.264
NY Giants 29.622 31.084 24.258 15.036
Washington 13.412 24.08 30.518 31.99
Philadelphia 9.298 18.258 28.734 43.71

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 89.85 9.124 1.022 0.0040
Detroit 8.784 62.88 27.644 0.692
Chicago 1.366 27.812 67.89 2.932
Minnesota 0.0 0.184 3.444 96.372

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.348 7.914 1.484 0.254
Atlanta 6.382 43.096 31.678 18.844
Tampa Bay 2.196 27.556 34.484 35.764
Carolina 1.074 21.434 32.354 45.138

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.068 7.422 1.292 0.218
Arizona 5.366 39.18 33.134 22.32
Seattle 2.446 33.864 36.462 27.228
St Louis 1.12 19.534 29.112 50.234

Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 32.852 17.784 10.898 4.002 13.296 8.266 87.098
Houston 18.784 22.97 24.738 21.678 1.416 1.902 91.488
Baltimore 15.52 15.612 10.116 5.752 14.368 11.658 73.026
Pittsburgh 10.052 10.0 8.572 4.788 18.536 13.782 65.73
Buffalo 7.212 7.008 5.37 3.372 16.368 13.912 53.242
San Diego 5.836 9.626 15.15 27.724 2.294 3.634 64.264
Cincinnati 4.622 5.638 4.902 3.166 11.04 12.228 41.596
NY Jets 2.064 3.416 3.714 2.274 9.438 12.156 33.062
Oakland 1.636 4.528 9.67 14.15 3.87 6.95 40.804
Tennessee 0.89 1.962 2.832 2.974 6.218 8.714 23.59
Kansas City 0.376 0.858 2.05 5.762 1.592 2.86 13.498
Cleveland 0.062 0.208 0.436 0.554 0.6 1.334 3.194
Denver 0.054 0.186 0.58 1.814 0.606 1.41 4.65
Jacksonville 0.04 0.204 0.966 1.932 0.356 1.172 4.67
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.028 0.0020 0.022 0.058
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.03

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 72.994 12.682 3.414 0.76 8.228 1.336 99.414
New Orleans 9.818 35.39 27.222 17.918 1.708 1.988 94.044
San Francisco 7.996 22.906 25.716 34.45 0.58 1.022 92.67
Detroit 3.8 2.854 1.572 0.558 41.548 17.5 67.832
Dallas 2.504 13.52 17.896 13.748 5.71 11.744 65.122
NY Giants 2.12 6.606 10.568 10.328 8.182 12.272 50.076
Washington 0.242 2.844 5.73 4.596 5.146 10.06 28.618
Chicago 0.368 0.528 0.328 0.142 17.274 19.16 37.8
Atlanta 0.082 1.27 2.596 2.434 5.514 9.492 21.388
Philadelphia 0.048 0.916 2.79 5.544 3.308 7.436 20.042
Tampa Bay 0.018 0.216 0.62 1.342 0.924 2.976 6.096
Arizona 0.0060 0.13 0.738 4.492 0.306 1.076 6.748
Seattle 0.0040 0.078 0.45 1.914 0.528 1.378 4.352
Carolina 0.0 0.058 0.306 0.71 0.972 2.246 4.292
St Louis 0.0 0.0020 0.054 1.064 0.014 0.114 1.248
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.058 0.2 0.258

Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 6

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 68.176 25.366 6.332 0.126
Buffalo 22.938 45.038 29.898 2.126
NY Jets 8.818 28.768 57.668 4.746
Miami 0.068 0.828 6.102 93.002

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 64.288 27.36 7.496 0.856
Pittsburgh 28.486 50.124 18.666 2.724
Cincinnati 6.808 20.11 60.41 12.672
Cleveland 0.418 2.406 13.428 83.748

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 52.312 40.978 6.404 0.306
Tennessee 45.67 47.324 6.468 0.538
Jacksonville 1.95 10.536 67.574 19.94
Indianapolis 0.068 1.162 19.554 79.216

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 53.532 36.814 8.164 1.49
Oakland 42.322 43.276 11.724 2.678
Denver 1.84 9.88 42.932 45.348
Kansas City 2.306 10.03 37.18 50.484

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 44.53 26.414 18.258 10.798
NY Giants 26.934 30.094 26.826 16.146
Washington 20.304 27.536 28.35 23.81
Philadelphia 8.232 15.956 26.566 49.246

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 71.188 26.568 2.168 0.076
Detroit 27.92 62.774 8.966 0.34
Chicago 0.868 10.236 78.692 10.204
Minnesota 0.024 0.422 10.174 89.38

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 83.728 12.59 3.11 0.572
Tampa Bay 9.472 47.374 28.362 14.792
Atlanta 5.584 26.262 42.152 26.002
Carolina 1.216 13.774 26.376 58.634

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.578 6.978 1.238 0.206
Seattle 3.974 43.018 32.79 20.218
St Louis 2.078 26.526 31.686 39.71
Arizona 2.37 23.478 34.286 39.866

Generated: Tue Oct 18 23:10:07 EDT 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 35.614 17.354 8.062 3.258 17.828 7.966 90.082
New England 23.042 23.868 14.222 7.044 7.954 9.098 85.228
Pittsburgh 14.636 7.706 4.244 1.9 31.316 14.692 74.494
San Diego 6.544 10.596 15.936 20.456 3.626 5.912 63.07
Tennessee 5.51 10.02 14.164 15.976 4.838 8.564 59.072
Oakland 4.292 8.608 14.85 14.572 5.558 8.962 56.842
Buffalo 4.358 7.528 6.444 4.608 10.064 13.784 46.786
Houston 3.276 9.178 15.904 23.954 3.346 6.352 62.01
Cincinnati 2.004 2.178 1.664 0.962 9.774 12.102 28.684
NY Jets 0.61 2.466 3.044 2.698 4.234 8.584 21.636
Kansas City 0.034 0.208 0.506 1.558 0.466 1.032 3.804
Cleveland 0.042 0.088 0.138 0.15 0.462 1.092 1.972
Denver 0.03 0.142 0.46 1.208 0.446 1.374 3.66
Jacksonville 0.0080 0.056 0.354 1.532 0.076 0.418 2.444
Miami 0.0 0.0040 0.0080 0.056 0.012 0.062 0.142
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.068 0.0 0.0060 0.074

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 56.274 11.126 3.064 0.724 22.574 3.888 97.65
Detroit 16.616 7.348 2.998 0.958 47.866 11.99 87.776
San Francisco 10.514 23.06 26.872 31.132 0.368 0.95 92.896
New Orleans 8.022 23.252 26.41 26.044 1.466 2.882 88.076
Dallas 3.658 16.414 15.426 9.032 4.046 15.28 63.856
NY Giants 2.718 7.94 9.144 7.132 6.564 15.092 48.59
Washington 1.612 7.308 7.064 4.32 6.06 14.92 41.284
Tampa Bay 0.178 1.116 2.576 5.602 1.56 6.374 17.406
Chicago 0.226 0.268 0.252 0.122 5.712 12.894 19.474
Philadelphia 0.094 1.196 2.886 4.056 1.786 8.106 18.124
Atlanta 0.06 0.574 1.728 3.222 1.158 3.658 10.4
Seattle 0.022 0.298 0.796 2.858 0.428 2.044 6.446
Arizona 0.0 0.046 0.31 2.014 0.062 0.362 2.794
St Louis 0.0020 0.024 0.274 1.778 0.042 0.29 2.41
Carolina 0.0 0.026 0.196 0.994 0.168 0.746 2.13
Minnesota 0.0040 0.0040 0.0040 0.012 0.14 0.524 0.688

Generated: Tue Oct 18 23:10:07 EDT 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 5

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 54.072 35.19 10.25 0.488
Buffalo 36.736 40.428 20.756 2.08
NY Jets 8.898 22.46 57.228 11.414
Miami 0.294 1.922 11.766 86.018

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 41.136 37.34 17.102 4.422
Baltimore 44.812 33.838 16.72 4.63
Cincinnati 12.172 23.082 46.924 17.822
Cleveland 1.88 5.74 19.254 73.126

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 64.264 30.53 4.948 0.258
Tennessee 33.144 55.536 10.254 1.066
Jacksonville 2.474 12.098 65.204 20.224
Indianapolis 0.118 1.836 19.594 78.452

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 60.188 31.714 6.94 1.158
Oakland 35.218 46.078 14.778 3.926
Kansas City 2.94 13.206 41.008 42.846
Denver 1.654 9.002 37.274 52.07

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 60.804 25.628 10.56 3.008
Washington 26.348 41.504 22.858 9.29
NY Giants 10.272 24.424 44.93 20.374
Philadelphia 2.576 8.444 21.652 67.328

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 58.35 39.686 1.806 0.158
Detroit 41.288 55.442 3.05 0.22
Chicago 0.262 3.398 61.262 35.078
Minnesota 0.1 1.474 33.882 64.544

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 96.356 3.186 0.402 0.056
Carolina 1.566 45.968 32.076 20.39
Tampa Bay 1.652 36.432 39.086 22.83
Atlanta 0.426 14.414 28.436 56.724

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 88.186 9.254 2.124 0.436
Seattle 5.558 43.282 32.5 18.66
Arizona 4.29 28.886 37.068 29.756
St Louis 1.966 18.578 28.308 51.148

Generated: Tue Oct 11 18:10:29 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 19.422 15.642 11.874 7.134 13.718 10.41 78.2
Baltimore 15.984 12.268 9.862 6.698 13.858 11.4 70.07
Houston 15.412 16.372 16.102 16.378 6.05 6.516 76.83
Pittsburgh 14.5 11.37 9.276 5.99 18.318 11.816 71.27
San Diego 10.318 12.402 15.252 22.216 3.874 5.204 69.266
Buffalo 9.992 10.276 9.08 7.388 12.494 11.336 60.566
Tennessee 6.216 8.53 9.506 8.892 10.9 11.464 55.508
Oakland 4.076 6.796 10.358 13.988 5.864 8.628 49.71
Cincinnati 2.71 3.262 3.53 2.67 8.114 9.974 30.26
NY Jets 0.942 2.06 2.846 3.05 3.86 6.84 19.598
Cleveland 0.188 0.382 0.604 0.706 1.164 2.322 5.366
Jacksonville 0.106 0.242 0.608 1.518 0.53 1.31 4.314
Kansas City 0.094 0.256 0.66 1.93 0.716 1.416 5.072
Denver 0.04 0.128 0.364 1.122 0.466 1.148 3.268
Miami 0.0 0.01 0.056 0.228 0.058 0.168 0.52
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0040 0.022 0.092 0.016 0.048 0.182

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 37.972 13.63 5.39 1.358 31.134 7.0 96.484
New Orleans 24.136 32.92 26.348 12.952 0.282 0.812 97.45
Detroit 23.39 12.146 4.414 1.338 44.622 8.826 94.736
Dallas 6.588 19.394 25.156 9.666 5.128 16.72 82.652
San Francisco 4.432 10.578 20.564 52.612 0.154 0.962 89.302
Washington 2.76 8.31 10.378 4.9 9.374 24.582 60.304
NY Giants 0.618 2.196 4.368 3.09 4.466 15.26 29.998
Tampa Bay 0.032 0.194 0.48 0.946 0.574 3.446 5.672
Philadelphia 0.01 0.222 0.896 1.448 0.542 5.05 8.168
Chicago 0.028 0.066 0.118 0.05 1.578 6.324 8.164
Carolina 0.014 0.144 0.564 0.844 0.99 4.26 6.816
Seattle 0.012 0.09 0.682 4.774 0.296 2.404 8.258
Atlanta 0.0040 0.044 0.146 0.232 0.192 1.086 1.704
Arizona 0.0 0.026 0.332 3.932 0.066 0.676 5.032
Minnesota 0.0040 0.028 0.042 0.026 0.58 2.41 3.09
St Louis 0.0 0.012 0.122 1.832 0.022 0.182 2.17

Generated: Tue Oct 11 18:10:29 EDT 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 4

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 48.962 32.318 17.76 0.96
Buffalo 30.766 36.566 29.38 3.288
NY Jets 19.996 29.568 44.116 6.32
Miami 0.276 1.548 8.744 89.432

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 61.188 24.962 10.444 3.406
Pittsburgh 21.718 38.122 26.772 13.388
Cincinnati 13.826 26.734 38.172 21.268
Cleveland 3.268 10.182 24.612 61.938

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 54.498 39.244 5.786 0.472
Tennessee 43.43 48.288 7.228 1.054
Jacksonville 1.8 9.62 58.936 29.644
Indianapolis 0.272 2.848 28.05 68.83

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 50.012 33.246 13.14 3.602
San Diego 38.942 36.962 19.254 4.842
Denver 8.99 22.22 42.852 25.938
Kansas City 2.056 7.572 24.754 65.618

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 48.21 29.35 18.234 4.206
Washington 29.126 35.438 27.352 8.084
NY Giants 21.046 30.052 39.65 9.252
Philadelphia 1.618 5.16 14.764 78.458

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 55.412 40.94 3.5 0.148
Detroit 43.288 49.936 6.624 0.152
Chicago 1.278 8.674 75.742 14.306
Minnesota 0.022 0.45 14.134 85.394

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.19 8.14 1.426 0.244
Tampa Bay 6.118 48.564 31.476 13.842
Carolina 2.812 30.112 37.416 29.66
Atlanta 0.88 13.184 29.682 56.254

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 72.758 20.818 5.196 1.228
Arizona 20.94 46.7 22.594 9.766
Seattle 3.364 17.956 39.912 38.768
St Louis 2.938 14.526 32.298 50.238

Generated: Tue Oct 04 17:20:56 EDT 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 23.164 15.398 10.53 5.406 16.162 9.664 80.324
Baltimore 19.678 17.674 15.302 8.534 8.194 8.228 77.61
Tennessee 18.3 12.218 8.834 4.078 19.666 11.71 74.806
New England 15.216 15.81 12.676 5.26 11.768 10.73 71.46
Buffalo 6.928 9.312 9.146 5.38 10.398 11.568 52.732
Pittsburgh 4.616 6.382 6.492 4.228 11.75 11.752 45.22
Oakland 3.378 6.898 12.176 27.56 2.148 4.148 56.308
San Diego 3.024 5.496 9.538 20.884 2.522 4.376 45.84
NY Jets 2.472 5.12 6.726 5.678 6.132 9.696 35.824
Cincinnati 2.532 3.734 4.342 3.218 6.864 8.806 29.496
Cleveland 0.278 0.658 1.122 1.21 1.55 3.166 7.984
Denver 0.214 0.808 2.08 5.888 1.04 2.536 12.566
Jacksonville 0.174 0.39 0.596 0.64 1.422 2.624 5.846
Kansas City 0.014 0.06 0.27 1.712 0.134 0.4 2.59
Indianapolis 0.01 0.034 0.072 0.156 0.212 0.42 0.904
Miami 0.0020 0.0080 0.098 0.168 0.038 0.176 0.49

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 34.972 13.414 6.028 0.998 26.78 9.592 91.784
Detroit 25.778 11.654 4.912 0.944 36.572 10.434 90.294
New Orleans 21.352 29.864 29.736 9.238 0.996 1.89 93.076
Dallas 6.832 18.682 18.764 3.932 7.584 16.928 72.722
Washington 5.138 11.408 10.24 2.34 11.172 20.084 60.382
NY Giants 3.452 6.882 8.262 2.45 9.364 18.256 48.666
San Francisco 1.822 5.268 13.624 52.044 0.24 0.98 73.978
Tampa Bay 0.278 1.264 2.816 1.76 1.958 6.192 14.268
Chicago 0.224 0.404 0.472 0.178 3.46 7.324 12.062
Arizona 0.044 0.5 2.33 18.066 0.232 1.348 22.52
Carolina 0.044 0.324 1.294 1.15 0.61 2.244 5.666
Philadelphia 0.034 0.238 0.748 0.598 0.552 2.868 5.038
Atlanta 0.024 0.07 0.444 0.342 0.37 1.186 2.436
Seattle 0.0040 0.016 0.16 3.184 0.018 0.254 3.636
St Louis 0.0020 0.012 0.16 2.764 0.0080 0.07 3.016
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.012 0.084 0.35 0.456

Generated: Tue Oct 04 17:20:56 EDT 2011