Archive for October, 2007

2007 playoff predictions after week 8

Tuesday, October 30th, 2007

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.98 0.02 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.02 89.68 8.54 1.76
NY Jets 0.0 6.02 56.96 37.02
Miami 0.0 4.28 34.5 61.22

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 78.84 16.68 3.94 0.54
Cleveland 16.4 59.56 19.64 4.4
Baltimore 4.44 18.84 53.62 23.1
Cincinnati 0.32 4.92 22.8 71.96

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 81.76 14.76 3.42 0.06
Tennessee 10.34 48.08 40.24 1.34
Jacksonville 7.9 36.92 52.42 2.76
Houston 0.0 0.24 3.92 95.84

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 38.2 39.86 18.52 3.42
Kansas City 46.28 31.24 18.96 3.52
Denver 14.62 24.24 44.98 16.16
Oakland 0.9 4.66 17.54 76.9

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 55.94 28.56 12.84 2.66
NY Giants 31.56 44.2 20.96 3.28
Washington 11.72 23.4 50.64 14.24
Philadelphia 0.78 3.84 15.56 79.82

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 71.78 26.16 1.88 0.18
Detroit 27.62 65.74 6.14 0.5
Chicago 0.4 4.34 53.18 42.08
Minnesota 0.2 3.76 38.8 57.24

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 43.06 32.34 22.2 2.4
Tampa Bay 34.14 33.12 27.68 5.06
New Orleans 22.2 31.68 40.44 5.68
Atlanta 0.6 2.86 9.68 86.86

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 52.42 38.5 9.06 0.02
Arizona 42.56 44.58 12.8 0.06
San Francisco 5.02 16.92 76.36 1.7
St Louis 0.0 0.0 1.78 98.22

Generated: Mon Oct 29 22:48:34 EDT 2007

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 56.18 34.16 8.8 0.84 0.02 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 35.82 34.42 9.78 1.74 13.04 3.42 98.22
Pittsburgh 4.36 14.86 41.46 18.16 2.18 5.1 86.12
Tennessee 2.18 6.76 1.04 0.36 41.4 24.3 76.04
Jacksonville 1.1 5.02 1.58 0.2 32.44 30.42 70.76
Kansas City 0.18 1.78 11.88 32.44 1.16 5.08 52.52
San Diego 0.1 1.66 10.28 26.16 1.92 5.76 45.88
Cleveland 0.06 1.02 9.98 5.34 4.9 14.3 35.6
Baltimore 0.02 0.26 2.1 2.06 1.0 3.46 8.9
Denver 0.0 0.06 2.94 11.62 0.88 3.44 18.94
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.06 0.5 1.46
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.28 0.2 0.7 1.22
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.58 2.52 3.12
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.22 0.96 1.18
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 38.8 24.84 6.64 1.5 13.7 7.94 93.42
Dallas 31.18 19.62 4.38 0.76 19.44 10.92 86.3
NY Giants 12.06 15.28 3.74 0.48 27.3 17.74 76.6
Detroit 9.58 11.46 5.12 1.46 14.96 17.16 59.74
Carolina 2.48 6.42 18.62 15.54 2.3 5.46 50.82
Washington 2.62 6.68 1.94 0.48 14.34 19.78 45.84
Seattle 1.54 6.12 20.88 23.88 1.0 2.82 56.24
Tampa Bay 0.66 3.0 11.5 18.98 1.1 3.34 38.58
New Orleans 0.54 3.1 10.96 7.6 1.92 5.96 30.08
Arizona 0.4 2.86 14.4 24.9 0.88 2.38 45.82
Philadelphia 0.1 0.4 0.18 0.1 1.76 3.44 5.98
Chicago 0.04 0.1 0.1 0.16 0.86 1.6 2.86
San Francisco 0.0 0.06 1.24 3.72 0.02 0.32 5.36
Minnesota 0.0 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.4 1.04 1.64
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.36 0.02 0.1 0.72
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Mon Oct 29 22:48:34 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff Predictions after week 6

Tuesday, October 16th, 2007

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.88 0.12 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.08 51.12 30.08 18.72
NY Jets 0.04 32.88 42.12 24.96
Miami 0.0 15.88 27.8 56.32

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 75.04 18.64 5.0 1.32
Baltimore 18.46 45.58 25.3 10.66
Cleveland 4.2 24.28 42.7 28.82
Cincinnati 2.3 11.5 27.0 59.2

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 69.74 24.0 5.5 0.76
Jacksonville 25.58 47.68 21.04 5.7
Tennessee 3.78 20.64 44.06 31.52
Houston 0.9 7.68 29.4 62.02

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 40.46 31.98 20.24 7.32
Denver 27.26 29.8 30.38 12.56
Kansas City 28.1 28.24 27.54 16.12
Oakland 4.18 9.98 21.84 64.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 63.0 24.22 10.36 2.42
NY Giants 23.46 43.72 26.34 6.48
Washington 12.24 26.86 45.12 15.78
Philadelphia 1.3 5.2 18.18 75.32

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 74.32 20.76 4.2 0.72
Detroit 21.52 50.78 20.68 7.02
Chicago 3.4 20.16 45.04 31.4
Minnesota 0.76 8.3 30.08 60.86

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 46.96 50.18 2.66 0.2
Tampa Bay 52.38 43.66 3.64 0.32
New Orleans 0.34 2.46 49.8 47.4
Atlanta 0.32 3.7 43.9 52.08

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 50.58 33.0 15.7 0.72
Arizona 33.74 37.58 27.72 0.96
San Francisco 15.62 28.92 52.9 2.56
St Louis 0.06 0.5 3.68 95.76

Generated: Tue Oct 16 00:01:00 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 51.76 29.36 16.22 2.54 0.0 0.04 99.92
Indianapolis 27.7 27.14 12.5 2.4 18.8 6.24 94.78
Pittsburgh 11.72 20.86 31.86 10.6 4.9 6.84 86.78
Jacksonville 6.44 12.38 5.56 1.2 38.54 16.0 80.12
Baltimore 1.52 3.84 8.78 4.32 9.14 14.52 42.12
San Diego 0.24 2.02 8.32 29.88 1.9 5.18 47.54
Tennessee 0.32 1.6 1.54 0.32 14.0 17.58 35.36
Kansas City 0.16 0.94 5.04 21.96 1.12 4.9 34.12
Denver 0.08 1.04 5.88 20.26 1.48 4.94 33.68
Houston 0.06 0.34 0.46 0.04 4.84 9.8 15.54
Cleveland 0.0 0.28 2.18 1.74 3.0 8.0 15.2
Oakland 0.0 0.12 0.58 3.48 0.56 1.7 6.44
Cincinnati 0.0 0.08 1.04 1.18 1.32 3.06 6.68
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.08 0.3 0.42
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.32 0.88 1.28
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 32.86 17.34 9.82 2.98 14.82 9.22 87.04
Green Bay 26.88 22.68 17.18 7.58 7.78 5.9 88.0
Carolina 11.4 13.58 14.28 7.7 14.06 11.94 72.96
Tampa Bay 9.38 13.66 15.12 14.22 9.04 8.04 69.46
NY Giants 7.18 8.62 5.62 2.04 22.7 16.92 63.08
Detroit 3.98 5.74 6.88 4.92 6.9 9.34 37.76
Washington 3.42 4.28 3.42 1.12 14.18 15.62 42.04
Seattle 2.82 7.88 13.94 25.94 2.34 4.82 57.74
Arizona 1.02 3.6 7.38 21.74 1.88 4.64 40.26
San Francisco 0.76 1.5 3.88 9.48 1.78 4.08 21.48
Chicago 0.14 0.58 1.4 1.28 1.7 3.66 8.76
Philadelphia 0.14 0.42 0.5 0.24 1.76 3.76 6.82
New Orleans 0.02 0.02 0.18 0.12 0.16 0.42 0.92
Minnesota 0.0 0.1 0.34 0.32 0.84 1.34 2.94
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.26 0.06 0.3 0.68
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.0 0.0 0.06

Generated: Tue Oct 16 00:01:00 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 5

Tuesday, October 9th, 2007

That Monday Night Game was a real treat. Here are this week’s predictions:

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 54.02 33.04 12.94
Buffalo 0.0 33.3 40.88 25.82
Miami 0.0 12.68 26.08 61.24

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 69.66 23.26 5.66 1.42
Baltimore 24.94 48.12 20.4 6.54
Cleveland 3.38 19.64 45.7 31.28
Cincinnati 2.02 8.98 28.24 60.76

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 64.84 23.8 10.52 0.84
Tennessee 21.44 43.78 27.72 7.06
Jacksonville 13.08 27.68 45.64 13.6
Houston 0.64 4.74 16.12 78.5

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 36.66 27.7 20.62 15.02
Denver 22.34 26.26 25.92 25.48
Kansas City 21.5 23.78 26.84 27.88
Oakland 19.5 22.26 26.62 31.62

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 81.58 14.62 3.64 0.16
Washington 11.56 42.78 41.46 4.2
NY Giants 6.68 40.94 46.18 6.2
Philadelphia 0.18 1.66 8.72 89.44

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 71.16 20.6 7.96 0.28
Detroit 17.34 42.0 36.72 3.94
Chicago 11.36 35.16 44.98 8.5
Minnesota 0.14 2.24 10.34 87.28

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 50.74 39.68 7.84 1.74
Tampa Bay 44.84 40.68 11.56 2.92
Atlanta 2.84 11.06 41.08 45.02
New Orleans 1.58 8.58 39.52 50.32

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 61.38 30.58 7.96 0.08
Arizona 32.98 47.86 19.12 0.04
San Francisco 5.64 21.54 71.82 1.0
St Louis 0.0 0.02 1.1 98.88

Generated: Tue Oct 09 00:17:48 EDT 2007

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 57.46 28.84 13.02 0.68 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 25.98 25.96 11.8 1.1 18.74 9.76 93.34
Pittsburgh 7.04 18.92 37.62 6.08 5.2 7.58 82.44
Tennessee 4.24 11.7 5.26 0.24 34.92 20.68 77.04
Jacksonville 2.72 6.7 3.42 0.24 23.62 27.24 63.94
Baltimore 2.38 5.76 14.52 2.28 10.04 15.74 50.72
San Diego 0.04 0.74 4.06 31.82 0.46 1.28 38.4
Oakland 0.04 0.36 2.12 16.98 0.38 1.28 21.16
Houston 0.06 0.36 0.2 0.02 3.34 6.18 10.16
Cleveland 0.02 0.24 2.18 0.94 1.84 5.64 10.86
Kansas City 0.02 0.08 1.7 19.7 0.16 0.7 22.36
Denver 0.0 0.18 2.66 19.5 0.32 0.94 23.6
Cincinnati 0.0 0.16 1.44 0.42 0.9 2.56 5.48
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.32 0.38
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.12
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 61.8 14.64 4.46 0.68 12.12 3.72 97.42
Green Bay 13.7 26.26 23.56 7.64 5.12 6.08 82.36
Seattle 7.78 23.24 21.2 9.16 6.68 9.18 77.24
Washington 6.7 3.36 1.24 0.26 30.48 20.18 62.22
Arizona 2.96 11.12 12.14 6.76 6.98 11.42 51.38
NY Giants 3.08 2.28 1.0 0.32 24.42 18.82 49.92
Carolina 1.58 6.46 12.18 30.52 1.72 4.02 56.48
Detroit 0.96 4.26 7.94 4.18 4.26 8.12 29.72
Tampa Bay 0.94 3.82 8.6 31.48 1.36 2.86 49.06
Chicago 0.3 3.18 4.54 3.34 3.64 7.22 22.22
San Francisco 0.18 1.12 2.32 2.02 2.32 5.4 13.36
New Orleans 0.02 0.08 0.28 1.2 0.16 0.6 2.34
Atlanta 0.0 0.08 0.48 2.28 0.1 0.44 3.38
Philadelphia 0.0 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.54 1.64 2.36
Minnesota 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.54
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Oct 09 00:17:48 EDT 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 4

Monday, October 1st, 2007

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
NY Jets 0.74 46.42 33.28 19.56
Buffalo 0.4 27.24 34.52 37.84
Miami 0.26 25.04 32.1 42.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 61.6 22.28 11.86 4.26
Baltimore 19.12 33.06 26.4 21.42
Cincinnati 14.0 27.66 31.2 27.14
Cleveland 5.28 17.0 30.54 47.18

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 79.38 14.96 4.74 0.92
Jacksonville 10.4 32.44 33.58 23.58
Tennessee 7.26 35.64 32.1 25.0
Houston 2.96 16.96 29.58 50.5

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 46.2 28.96 17.72 7.12
Kansas City 32.8 32.3 21.44 13.46
San Diego 14.58 23.92 34.0 27.5
Oakland 6.42 14.82 26.84 51.92

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 79.8 14.38 4.92 0.9
Washington 10.94 36.46 36.34 16.26
NY Giants 7.94 40.18 35.48 16.4
Philadelphia 1.32 8.98 23.26 66.44

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 68.86 21.9 8.28 0.96
Detroit 21.9 45.84 26.9 5.36
Chicago 8.7 27.56 45.62 18.12
Minnesota 0.54 4.7 19.2 75.56

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 58.32 26.52 12.14 3.02
Carolina 26.6 39.56 23.88 9.96
Atlanta 10.1 19.98 35.84 34.08
New Orleans 4.98 13.94 28.14 52.94

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 67.4 22.52 9.74 0.34
Arizona 18.16 39.4 40.56 1.88
San Francisco 14.4 37.5 46.5 1.6
St Louis 0.04 0.58 3.2 96.18

Generated: Mon Oct 01 22:51:45 EDT 2007

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 47.6 29.82 14.2 6.98 0.28 0.38 99.26
Indianapolis 34.52 26.82 13.36 4.68 10.62 4.3 94.3
Pittsburgh 8.02 14.92 21.08 17.58 6.52 6.7 74.82
Jacksonville 2.38 4.44 2.34 1.24 19.94 14.18 44.52
Denver 1.92 6.7 15.8 21.78 4.84 7.44 58.48
Baltimore 1.7 3.88 7.08 6.46 8.28 9.8 37.2
Kansas City 1.24 4.44 9.66 17.46 5.06 6.94 44.8
Tennessee 1.22 2.9 2.04 1.1 19.22 13.56 40.04
Cincinnati 0.36 2.1 5.3 6.24 5.8 8.04 27.84
Houston 0.4 1.1 0.92 0.54 8.1 9.3 20.36
San Diego 0.22 1.78 4.16 8.42 3.18 5.44 23.2
Cleveland 0.22 0.44 1.6 3.02 2.7 4.74 12.72
Oakland 0.12 0.48 2.04 3.78 2.68 4.02 13.12
NY Jets 0.06 0.12 0.28 0.28 1.9 3.1 5.74
Buffalo 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.26 0.3 0.84 1.54
Miami 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.18 0.58 1.22 2.06

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 41.86 20.22 12.26 5.46 7.8 3.76 91.36
Green Bay 20.84 20.9 17.72 9.4 8.28 6.5 83.64
Seattle 15.84 21.76 19.92 9.88 7.86 6.5 81.76
Tampa Bay 5.18 8.94 13.94 30.26 3.44 4.74 66.5
Detroit 3.86 5.62 6.88 5.54 10.2 10.24 42.34
Washington 3.56 3.08 2.68 1.62 12.3 11.52 34.76
Arizona 2.78 5.08 5.58 4.72 11.46 10.66 40.28
San Francisco 2.14 3.7 4.6 3.96 10.16 11.2 35.76
Carolina 1.66 4.84 6.5 13.6 5.72 6.96 39.28
NY Giants 1.14 2.26 2.72 1.82 11.68 11.46 31.08
Chicago 0.62 2.08 3.26 2.74 5.84 7.32 21.86
Atlanta 0.32 0.82 2.36 6.6 1.54 3.18 14.82
Philadelphia 0.12 0.2 0.46 0.54 2.08 2.96 6.36
New Orleans 0.06 0.44 0.86 3.62 1.02 2.02 8.02
Minnesota 0.02 0.06 0.24 0.22 0.62 0.98 2.14
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.04

Generated: Mon Oct 01 22:51:45 EDT 2007