Archive for December, 2014

2014 NFL Playoff Forecast after Week 16

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 94.484 5.516 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 5.516 94.484 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 59.942 40.058 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 40.058 59.942 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 68.884 31.116
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 31.116 68.884

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 72.236 27.764 0.0
San Diego 0.0 27.764 72.236 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 67.76 32.24 0.0 0.0
Detroit 32.24 67.76 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 61.49 38.51
Chicago 0.0 0.0 38.51 61.49

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 53.536 14.672 31.792 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 68.708 31.292 0.0
Atlanta 46.464 16.62 36.916 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 94.114 5.886 0.0 0.0
Arizona 5.886 94.114 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 94.114 5.886
St Louis 0.0 0.0 5.886 94.114

Generated: Wed Dec 24 19:07:36 EST 2014


Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 97.056 2.944 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Cincinnati 0.0 2.944 37.114 0.0 59.942 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 59.942 0.0 40.058 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.504 44.504
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.764 27.764
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.224 20.224
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.508 7.508
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 82.95 0.0 11.164 0.0 5.886 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 11.504 56.256 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.24 100.0
Detroit 3.65 28.59 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.76 100.0
Arizona 1.896 3.99 0.0 0.0 94.114 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 11.164 88.836 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.536 0.0 0.0 53.536
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.464 0.0 0.0 46.464
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 24 19:07:35 EST 2014

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2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 15

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 54.69 45.31 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 45.31 54.69 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 43.636 30.606 25.758 0.0
Cincinnati 39.494 25.998 34.508 0.0
Baltimore 16.87 43.396 31.638 8.096
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 8.096 91.904

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 67.424 32.576
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 32.576 67.424

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 73.622 26.378 0.0
San Diego 0.0 26.378 73.622 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 70.88 29.12 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 29.12 70.88 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 57.13 42.87 0.0 0.0
Detroit 42.87 57.13 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 60.036 39.964
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 39.964 60.036

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 73.716 20.52 5.764 0.0
Carolina 16.266 59.778 23.956 0.0
Atlanta 10.018 19.702 70.28 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 53.71 46.29 0.0 0.0
Arizona 46.29 53.71 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 86.66 13.34
St Louis 0.0 0.0 13.34 86.66

Generated: Wed Dec 17 22:57:06 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 62.122 30.57 5.774 1.534 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 37.742 60.878 1.126 0.254 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.072 4.464 53.244 42.22 0.0 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 2.396 22.926 18.314 18.612 16.61 78.858
Cincinnati 0.064 1.692 13.738 24.0 21.974 20.15 81.618
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 3.192 13.678 27.446 32.144 76.46
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.922 8.006 34.928
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.436 5.944 9.38
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.29 8.476 9.766
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 8.122 8.442
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.548 0.548
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 43.75 6.38 3.58 0.0 38.192 6.04 97.942
Arizona 44.074 2.216 0.0 0.0 50.316 3.394 100.0
Green Bay 6.218 47.446 3.466 0.0 6.376 31.358 94.864
Dallas 4.454 9.128 57.298 0.0 2.284 7.504 80.668
Detroit 1.504 34.83 6.536 0.0 2.614 49.116 94.6
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 29.12 0.0 0.218 2.588 31.926
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.716 0.0 0.0 73.716
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.266 0.0 0.0 16.266
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.018 0.0 0.0 10.018
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 17 22:57:05 EST 2014

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2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 14

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 94.822 3.642 1.536 0.0
Miami 4.538 78.932 16.53 0.0
Buffalo 0.64 17.426 81.934 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 42.836 24.072 27.554 5.538
Baltimore 26.676 36.744 22.566 14.014
Cincinnati 26.206 26.156 30.294 17.344
Cleveland 4.282 13.028 19.586 63.104

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.298 6.702 0.0 0.0
Houston 6.702 93.298 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 62.954 37.046
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 37.046 62.954

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 99.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 62.3 37.7 0.0
San Diego 0.1 37.6 62.3 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 66.63 33.37 0.0 0.0
Dallas 33.37 66.63 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 76.544 23.456
Washington 0.0 0.0 23.456 76.544

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 73.588 26.412 0.0 0.0
Detroit 26.412 73.588 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 71.998 28.002
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 28.002 71.998

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 47.294 33.738 18.968 0.0
Carolina 23.364 38.932 37.274 0.43
Atlanta 29.342 27.33 43.328 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.43 99.57

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 43.68 52.642 3.678 0.0
Seattle 56.32 35.628 7.29 0.762
San Francisco 0.0 11.21 64.826 23.964
St Louis 0.0 0.52 24.206 75.274

Generated: Wed Dec 10 19:36:47 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 51.242 43.646 4.022 0.99 0.074 0.024 99.998
New England 46.888 34.964 10.884 2.086 1.494 1.956 98.272
Indianapolis 1.158 12.108 47.392 32.64 0.888 1.344 95.53
Pittsburgh 0.244 6.088 18.706 17.798 12.62 12.046 67.502
Cincinnati 0.464 2.414 8.762 14.566 11.93 16.574 54.71
Baltimore 0.002 0.416 7.224 19.034 19.446 15.666 61.788
Miami 0.0 0.184 1.49 2.864 9.314 16.866 30.718
Houston 0.0 0.148 1.264 5.29 8.07 9.208 23.98
San Diego 0.002 0.03 0.056 0.012 10.502 9.34 19.942
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.126 4.156 2.368 3.206 9.856
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.616 8.736 30.352
Buffalo 0.0 0.002 0.074 0.564 1.678 5.034 7.352
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 39.366 30.902 3.32 0.0 12.85 11.87 98.308
Arizona 28.094 13.784 1.802 0.0 41.37 10.91 95.96
Seattle 24.77 20.218 11.332 0.0 22.696 9.402 88.418
Detroit 4.76 18.188 3.464 0.0 13.838 43.788 84.038
Dallas 2.036 10.38 20.954 0.0 5.5 13.356 52.226
Philadelphia 0.974 6.528 59.128 0.0 0.524 3.134 70.288
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.294 0.0 0.0 47.294
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.342 0.0 0.0 29.342
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.364 0.0 0.0 23.364
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.204 7.388 10.592
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.152 0.17
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 10 19:36:46 EST 2014

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2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 13

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 66.88 24.744 8.376 0.0
Miami 29.126 54.592 16.282 0.0
Buffalo 3.994 20.664 75.342 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 58.17 21.118 13.568 7.144
Pittsburgh 19.474 21.842 36.112 22.572
Baltimore 9.664 31.982 24.738 33.616
Cleveland 12.692 25.058 25.582 36.668

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.748 6.252 0.0 0.0
Houston 6.252 93.316 0.432 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 64.306 35.694
Jacksonville 0.0 0.432 35.262 64.306

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 97.58 2.26 0.16 0.0
Kansas City 0.658 60.308 39.034 0.0
San Diego 1.762 37.432 60.806 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 81.82 18.18 0.0 0.0
Dallas 18.18 81.82 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 50.632 49.368
Washington 0.0 0.0 49.368 50.632

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 73.162 26.838 0.0 0.0
Detroit 26.838 72.712 0.45 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.378 64.61 35.012
Minnesota 0.0 0.072 34.94 64.988

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 71.89 22.188 5.908 0.014
Atlanta 21.378 46.966 31.58 0.076
Carolina 6.732 30.736 57.738 4.794
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.11 4.774 95.116

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 45.63 40.612 13.368 0.39
Seattle 47.892 35.046 15.708 1.354
San Francisco 6.476 23.658 65.424 4.442
St Louis 0.002 0.684 5.5 93.814

Generated: Wed Dec 03 20:08:34 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 58.262 30.246 7.59 1.482 1.32 0.69 99.59
New England 31.742 26.38 7.534 1.224 11.0 9.368 87.248
Cincinnati 6.438 12.038 23.4 16.294 4.118 6.434 68.722
Indianapolis 1.312 8.74 27.286 56.41 0.052 0.308 94.108
Miami 0.392 15.938 9.366 3.43 18.912 18.168 66.206
San Diego 0.902 0.494 0.29 0.076 17.616 16.916 36.294
Pittsburgh 0.438 3.554 10.094 5.388 5.676 8.252 33.402
Buffalo 0.326 0.798 1.306 1.564 2.862 7.002 13.858
Kansas City 0.17 0.266 0.164 0.058 31.68 16.472 48.81
Cleveland 0.008 0.864 8.422 3.398 1.83 5.336 19.858
Baltimore 0.01 0.576 3.484 5.594 3.158 7.542 20.364
Houston 0.0 0.106 1.064 5.082 1.776 3.512 11.54
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 45.13 22.296 5.736 0.0 15.526 8.644 97.332
Arizona 18.674 17.124 9.832 0.0 25.334 15.326 86.29
Seattle 14.152 13.232 20.502 0.006 17.084 11.576 76.552
Philadelphia 12.278 26.002 43.54 0.0 1.728 3.418 86.966
Detroit 7.744 12.984 6.11 0.0 22.666 29.89 79.394
Dallas 1.746 5.484 10.944 0.006 9.134 15.474 42.788
San Francisco 0.276 2.878 3.322 0.0 8.492 15.274 30.242
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.008 71.882 0.0 0.0 71.89
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.006 21.372 0.0 0.0 21.378
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.732 0.0 0.0 6.732
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.02 0.168 0.19
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.208 0.224
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.022
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 03 20:08:34 EST 2014

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