Archive for December, 2007

Tooting my own horn

Monday, December 31st, 2007

With the conclusion of the NFL season yesterday, it became possible to determine the NFL draft selection order. This year there was a 3-way tie in record and strength of schedule between Atlanta, Kansas City and Oakland for the 4th, 5th and 6th slots. This caused a great deal of confusion with erroneous reports of draft order or procedures coming from numerous outlets including the Atlanta Journal Constitution and several local Kansas City media outlets. The NFL itself took about 18 hours to make sure they were getting it right.

 I’ve been very interested in this question for the last few weeks since I am a Chiefs fan. Using my software I was able to correctly call the draft order and the specific order of the upcoming coinflips the second the Jets winning FG sailed through the uprights. It’s all documented in the link below. I called the draft order before the NFL did. 

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=177667

This was a pretty strenuous test of the NFL tiebreaking procedures that I’ve coded into my program, considering that many media outlets trying to sort through the tiebreakers by hand made mistakes.  You can bank on the tiebreakers in my software to give you the right answer.

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2007 Playoff Predictions after week 15

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

I may try to put something up about predicted draft order later in the week since the playoff races are virtually decided, save for one NFC spot.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 74.94 25.06 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 25.06 74.94 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 98.54 1.46
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 1.46 98.54

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 99.82 0.18 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.18 99.0 0.82
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.82 99.18

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 99.88 0.12 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 77.98 22.02
Oakland 0.0 0.12 21.9 77.98

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 93.96 6.04 0.0
Washington 0.0 6.04 57.92 36.04
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 36.04 63.96

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
Detroit 0.0 1.9 95.62 2.48
Chicago 0.0 0.0 2.48 97.52

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 96.34 3.66 0.0
Carolina 0.0 3.66 96.34 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 99.9 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.1 91.58 8.32
St Louis 0.0 0.0 8.32 91.68

Generated: Tue Dec 18 15:54:04 EST 2007

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 66.02 33.98 0.0 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 24.74 50.2 0.06 23.28 98.28
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 9.24 15.82 0.86 69.96 95.88
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.96 0.98 99.94
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 5.78 5.9
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 68.82 31.18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 31.18 68.82 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 61.5 38.5 0.0 0.0 100.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 38.5 61.5 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.46 40.66 89.12
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.86 26.62 65.48
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 21.72 29.82
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.58 10.78 15.36
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.22 0.22
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 18 15:54:04 EST 2007

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2007 Playoff Predictions after week 14

Tuesday, December 11th, 2007

I’ve never seen the races so close to determined this early in the season. The improved bbnflstats.com predictions are partially responsible for the increased certainty, but more than that the way the season has played out there is just really clear stratification of the teams within the conferences.

AFC
NE
IND
PIT — could switch to the 4 seed
SD — could switch to the 3 seed
JAX
CLE — could lose out to Buffalo, Denver or Tennessee

NFC
DAL
GB
SEA
TB
NYG – could drop to 6th
MIN – could rise to 5th or drop their spot to NO, WAS, or ARZ

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 93.14 6.86 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 6.86 93.14 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 98.48 1.52
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 1.52 98.48

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.96 0.04 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.04 98.32 1.64 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 1.64 96.26 2.1
Houston 0.0 0.0 2.1 97.9

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 97.3 2.7 0.0 0.0
Denver 2.7 96.52 0.76 0.02
Kansas City 0.0 0.58 78.58 20.84
Oakland 0.0 0.2 20.66 79.14

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 98.66 1.34 0.0
Washington 0.0 1.34 67.26 31.4
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 31.4 68.6

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 92.72 6.36 0.92
Detroit 0.0 6.06 89.08 4.86
Chicago 0.0 1.22 4.56 94.22

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
Carolina 0.0 1.9 97.52 0.58
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.58 99.42

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 99.42 0.58 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.02 57.7 42.28
St Louis 0.0 0.56 41.72 57.72

Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 99.98 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.02 99.2 0.72 0.02 0.04 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.7 61.44 31.0 0.24 6.08 99.46
San Diego 0.0 0.0 34.58 62.72 0.0 0.56 97.86
Cleveland 0.0 0.04 3.22 3.6 6.04 58.26 71.16
Jacksonville 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.0 92.46 6.66 99.16
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.04 2.66 0.02 2.36 5.08
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 19.88 20.18
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.2 7.1
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 95.52 4.26 0.22 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 4.44 91.88 3.44 0.24 0.0 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.04 3.74 86.68 9.54 0.0 0.0 100.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.12 9.66 90.22 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.24 22.08 97.32
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.02 46.14 67.16
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.52 20.66 23.18
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.22 5.54 6.76
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.58 4.58
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.74 0.74
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.16 0.16
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.08
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007

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2007 Playoff Predictions after week 13

Tuesday, December 4th, 2007

Big winners:
San Diego
Tennessee
Buffalo
Minnesota

Big Losers:
Cleveland
Denver
Washington
Philadelphia

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 99.96 0.04 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.04 99.92 0.04
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.04 99.96

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 97.4 2.6 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 2.6 93.04 4.36 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 4.36 88.26 7.38
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 7.38 92.62

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.84 0.16 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.16 90.34 9.48 0.02
Tennessee 0.0 9.5 89.64 0.86
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.88 99.12

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 98.02 1.98 0.0 0.0
Denver 1.98 73.58 21.74 2.7
Kansas City 0.0 23.52 61.1 15.38
Oakland 0.0 0.92 17.16 81.92

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 88.6 8.84 2.56
Philadelphia 0.0 6.22 58.98 34.8
Washington 0.0 5.18 32.18 62.64

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 90.58 7.32 2.1
Detroit 0.0 6.7 82.34 10.96
Chicago 0.0 2.72 10.34 86.94

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 77.24 19.56 3.2
Carolina 0.0 19.24 73.8 6.96
Atlanta 0.0 3.52 6.64 89.84

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 96.28 3.72 0.0 0.0
Arizona 3.72 95.62 0.66 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.06 54.82 45.12
St Louis 0.0 0.6 44.52 54.88

Generated: Tue Dec 04 21:30:05 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 99.7 0.22 0.08 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.26 94.64 4.84 0.1 0.14 0.02 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.04 4.98 71.38 21.0 0.34 1.9 99.64
San Diego 0.0 0.0 22.02 76.0 0.0 0.18 98.2
Jacksonville 0.0 0.16 0.0 0.0 86.46 10.38 97.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 1.68 0.92 5.18 41.18 48.96
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.98 0.04 2.04 4.06
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 26.96 33.96
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.84 17.04 17.88
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.12
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 96.2 3.5 0.24 0.06 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 3.68 86.52 6.34 3.46 0.0 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.06 4.9 50.66 40.66 1.84 1.26 99.38
Tampa Bay 0.06 5.08 42.76 52.1 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.74 30.94 85.68
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.72 1.64 11.02 16.38
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.22 34.76 69.98
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 8.9 11.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 5.42 7.72
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.98 5.38 7.36
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.6
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.6 0.68
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.22 0.22
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 04 21:30:05 EST 2007

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