Comments for NFL playoff races and other musings

Comment on 2007 Playoff Predictions after week 13 by Bills’ Playoff Forecast « 5146 Games

Bills’ Playoff Forecast « 5146 Games — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 15:44:07 +0000

[…] has released its post-Week 13 playoff predictions and the Bills bring home a whopping 17.88% chance of making the playoffs. Now my heart will only be […]

Comment on 2007 Playoff predictions after week 12 by Bills’ Playoff Forecast « 5146 Games

Bills’ Playoff Forecast « 5146 Games — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 02:31:23 +0000

[…] that the nfl-forecast.com blog, powered by Brian Burke’s prediction model give the Bills. After Week 12 the Bills had just a 3% chance of obtaining one of the two AFC wild cards. Granted this number […]

Comment on NFL playoff predictions 2006, after week 12 by admin

admin — Wed, 29 Nov 2006 01:01:14 +0000

The reason you got that result is that if KC and Dever both lost to SD but won the rest of their games, KC would have the division record tiebreaker (with two losses in the division compared to Denver’s three). Glad you are finding the software interesting.

Comment on NFL playoff predictions 2006, after week 12 by chris clark

chris clark — Tue, 28 Nov 2006 16:43:47 +0000

One of the interesting experiments I did was assume that both DEN & KC lose their upcoming games @ SD but otherwise win-out. Under those assumptions, I found that KC has the better chance of making the playoffs than DEN. I can’t recall more details with certainty, but I think KC’s odds of making the playoffs given exactly 1 loss to SD were 100%, meaning that KC is in control of its destiny. In contrast, DEN’s odds of making the playoffs with losing only 1 game to SD were not 100%, meaning DEN needs help in making the playoffs if they lose that game.