Comments for NFL playoff races and other musings

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 13 by admin

admin — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 22:54:24 +0000

Yes, they incorporate rules through strength of schedule, for Division and Wildcard, and for both two and multi-way ties. The tie-breaking procedures have been tested against actual division finishes over many seasons, so should handle all situations accurately.

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 13 by Anon

Anon — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 20:57:05 +0000

Do these numbers incorporate full tie breaker rules?

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9 by Myster D

Myster D — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 22:40:07 +0000

Then shouldnt Houston be listed ahead of Baltimore.

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9 by admin

admin — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 21:38:21 +0000

The order of listing is based on weighted seed position. Teams listed at the top have the best odds for the top seeds.

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8 by ampron

ampron — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 18:06:17 +0000

Ok, thanks for that clarification. And yes of course, the draft odds are great for watching the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes. I agree that no one is concerned for the Packers draft position, I was just curious about that discrepancy in the odds.

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9 by Myster D

Myster D — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 15:41:57 +0000

Are these total probabilities sorted in any matter? Wouldnt it make sense to list them in descending order to show the 6 most likely teams to make playoffs? This cover any division winner having worse records than WC team possibilites.

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8 by admin

admin — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 07:52:12 +0000

ampron — You are correct that the draft position odds for playoff teams aren’t accurate. I’m more concerned about the top 15 to 20 draft slots. If your team is in playoff contention, you should be focused on that. If your team doesn’t have a prayer of making the playoffs, you might become more interested in where they are going to draft and my program captures that. But if you are a Packer fan and are wondering where you will draft in 2012, all I can say is: seek help.

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8 by ampron

ampron — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 15:51:16 +0000

I’m been using the software you make available for download and I am confused about how it is determining the draft order probabilities. For example, the Super Bowl champion is supose to draft last (i.e. 32nd), so why is the software projecting GB to have a different odds for “Winning the Super Bowl” and being 32nd in the draft? As of now the software says GB wins the Super Bowl in 22.8% of simulation and has the 32nd pick in about 72.5% of simulations.

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8 by admin

admin — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 04:53:31 +0000

Yes, predicted draft order is shown in the software. Very easy to run. Give it a try.

Comment on 2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8 by Gerrit

Gerrit — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 01:37:22 +0000

Could you use this to create a predicted draft order?