Archive for November, 2007

2007 Playoff predictions after week 12

Wednesday, November 28th, 2007

The good news is that these predictions incorporate Brian Burke’s individual game odds. You can (and should) read more about Brian’s work here. The plan is to use Brian’s game forecasts from here forward. The bad news is that in the process of converting over to Brian’s game predictions, I’ve mucked something up in the code. It only effects the Java Webstart version of the code (it runs fine when I compile and run it on my machine). I should have that fixed within a day or so.

Here are this week’s predictions.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 99.42 0.58 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.42 76.34 23.24
Miami 0.0 0.16 23.08 76.76

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 90.28 9.7 0.02 0.0
Cleveland 9.72 87.78 2.5 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 2.52 91.64 5.84
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 5.84 94.16

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 97.54 2.46 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 2.46 92.64 4.88 0.02
Tennessee 0.0 4.66 82.64 12.7
Houston 0.0 0.24 12.48 87.28

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 77.74 19.24 3.02 0.0
Denver 19.88 65.8 13.96 0.36
Kansas City 2.38 14.92 79.42 3.28
Oakland 0.0 0.04 3.6 96.36

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 75.86 14.14 10.0
Philadelphia 0.0 10.82 48.6 40.58
Washington 0.0 13.32 37.26 49.42

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 73.96 21.26 4.78
Detroit 0.0 23.14 67.56 9.3
Chicago 0.0 2.9 11.18 85.92

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 99.78 0.22 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.22 78.82 15.64 5.32
Carolina 0.0 10.62 60.16 29.22
Atlanta 0.0 10.34 24.2 65.46

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 94.28 5.72 0.0 0.0
Arizona 5.72 92.04 2.02 0.22
San Francisco 0.0 1.46 83.1 15.44
St Louis 0.0 0.78 14.88 84.34

Generated: Wed Nov 28 00:01:58 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 99.66 0.18 0.16 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.3 91.92 5.26 0.06 2.32 0.14 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.04 6.02 73.86 10.36 1.78 6.78 98.84
Jacksonville 0.0 1.8 0.66 0.0 81.9 13.16 97.52
San Diego 0.0 0.02 10.36 67.36 0.08 2.78 80.6
Cleveland 0.0 0.06 8.82 0.84 10.72 52.92 73.36
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.88 19.0 0.12 4.84 24.84
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.38 0.0 0.16 2.54
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 14.78 17.68
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 2.96 3.04
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 1.02 1.06
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.46 0.52
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 73.18 25.12 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 26.72 68.96 3.6 0.72 0.0 0.0 100.0
Tampa Bay 0.04 4.5 56.68 38.56 0.02 0.12 99.92
Seattle 0.06 1.42 38.26 54.54 1.18 1.86 97.32
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.04 5.68 1.06 6.06 12.84
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.84 23.82 77.66
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.86 23.84 46.7
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.68 13.4 22.08
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.2 4.3 10.78 15.3
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.04 15.36 22.4
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.54 4.14
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.38 0.94 1.32
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.14 0.18
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 28 00:01:58 EST 2007

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2007 Playoff Predictions after week 11

Tuesday, November 20th, 2007

This post marks the end of one era and the beginning of another. Up until now, my playoff predictions have been pretty much a one man show. Beginning next week, I’ll be using Brian Burke’s team ratings http://www.bbnflstats.com/ to predict the odds of individual games. I’m really excited about this collaboration, as I think it will improve the accuracy of the predictions. Brian’s fully documented team rating methods compliment the hands-on software approach I’ve used. We’re entering the time of the NFL season where scenario analysis for your team becomes very worthwhile. There may be some minor changes to the appearance of the software, but the overall functionality of the software will be the same, except for better accuracy. I’ll do a full quantitative evaluation over the off season.

This is probably as good as place as any to also acknowledge the contributions of Mike M. SteeleFan. He encouraged me to take my predictions from a mostly private hobby to a publically-distributed website. He also goaded me into learning Java to make it possible, as well as provided feedback on the graphical interface. Thanks, Mike.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 99.46 0.54 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.32 78.3 21.38
Miami 0.0 0.22 21.16 78.62

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 75.24 24.4 0.36 0.0
Cleveland 24.7 73.5 1.66 0.14
Cincinnati 0.04 1.58 55.56 42.82
Baltimore 0.02 0.52 42.42 57.04

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 84.6 12.32 3.0 0.08
Jacksonville 12.54 58.74 26.48 2.24
Tennessee 2.8 27.1 60.56 9.54
Houston 0.06 1.84 9.96 88.14

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 55.52 29.18 14.82 0.48
Denver 33.04 46.52 19.6 0.84
Kansas City 11.44 23.78 59.36 5.42
Oakland 0.0 0.52 6.22 93.26

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 95.06 4.86 0.06 0.02
NY Giants 4.78 78.5 12.34 4.38
Washington 0.08 9.74 44.96 45.22
Philadelphia 0.08 6.9 42.64 50.38

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 96.76 3.24 0.0 0.0
Detroit 3.24 85.74 10.46 0.56
Minnesota 0.0 9.76 63.46 26.78
Chicago 0.0 1.26 26.08 72.66

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 91.42 7.24 1.28 0.06
Carolina 5.16 50.24 37.92 6.68
New Orleans 3.34 37.88 42.82 15.96
Atlanta 0.08 4.64 17.98 77.3

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 67.14 32.64 0.22 0.0
Arizona 32.86 65.46 1.54 0.14
St Louis 0.0 1.4 57.44 41.16
San Francisco 0.0 0.5 40.8 58.7

Generated: Mon Nov 19 23:59:45 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 96.26 3.34 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 2.58 70.16 11.32 0.54 10.54 3.48 98.62
Pittsburgh 0.96 11.88 50.34 12.06 3.44 7.26 85.94
Jacksonville 0.18 10.04 2.22 0.1 51.92 21.94 86.4
Cleveland 0.0 1.86 19.68 3.16 7.74 19.06 51.5
Tennessee 0.02 2.1 0.64 0.04 22.62 33.4 58.82
San Diego 0.0 0.44 9.34 45.74 0.2 1.36 57.08
Denver 0.0 0.18 5.54 27.32 0.32 3.06 36.42
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.46 10.98 0.0 0.36 11.8
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.04 1.06 4.3 5.42
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.14 5.5 7.64
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.0 0.16 0.2
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.12 0.16
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 50.4 41.44 4.42 0.5 2.52 0.64 99.92
Dallas 47.46 41.04 5.82 0.74 3.98 0.86 99.9
Tampa Bay 0.72 7.82 42.02 40.86 0.2 0.84 92.46
NY Giants 0.64 3.48 0.62 0.04 68.8 14.56 88.14
Seattle 0.2 3.82 35.44 27.68 2.2 6.56 75.9
Detroit 0.58 1.96 0.52 0.18 7.32 27.74 38.3
Arizona 0.0 0.32 7.98 24.56 0.64 7.5 41.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 1.92 3.24 0.7 4.36 10.22
New Orleans 0.0 0.02 1.22 2.1 0.74 4.72 8.8
Washington 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.0 7.1 15.58 22.76
Philadelphia 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.04 4.6 13.62 18.3
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.0 0.14 0.22
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.6 3.7
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.28 0.38
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Mon Nov 19 23:59:45 EST 2007

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2007 Playoff Predictions after week 10

Tuesday, November 13th, 2007

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.2 99.78 0.02 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 78.54 21.46
Miami 0.0 0.02 21.44 78.54

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 95.42 4.4 0.18 0.0
Cleveland 4.46 84.56 8.48 2.5
Baltimore 0.1 5.74 47.92 46.24
Cincinnati 0.02 5.3 43.42 51.26

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 70.32 19.34 10.0 0.34
Jacksonville 16.56 41.76 39.06 2.62
Tennessee 13.1 37.54 45.36 4.0
Houston 0.02 1.36 5.58 93.04

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 58.18 29.04 12.32 0.46
Kansas City 26.06 36.58 35.28 2.08
Denver 15.74 33.64 46.98 3.64
Oakland 0.02 0.74 5.42 93.82

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 93.96 5.16 0.82 0.06
NY Giants 4.16 73.02 16.28 6.54
Washington 1.8 15.28 49.48 33.44
Philadelphia 0.08 6.54 33.42 59.96

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 84.9 14.22 0.86 0.02
Detroit 14.86 75.46 8.42 1.26
Chicago 0.24 6.92 54.98 37.86
Minnesota 0.0 3.4 35.74 60.86

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 70.96 18.74 7.82 2.48
Carolina 14.42 40.6 31.24 13.74
New Orleans 9.86 29.12 34.84 26.18
Atlanta 4.76 11.54 26.1 57.6

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 49.32 50.32 0.36 0.0
Arizona 50.58 47.9 1.46 0.06
San Francisco 0.06 1.04 66.06 32.84
St Louis 0.04 0.74 32.12 67.1

Generated: Mon Nov 12 23:27:31 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 79.04 16.84 3.88 0.04 0.18 0.02 100.0
Pittsburgh 16.72 39.48 34.54 4.68 1.5 1.46 98.38
Indianapolis 2.74 27.92 35.36 4.3 13.18 8.7 92.2
Jacksonville 0.94 7.74 7.36 0.52 31.24 23.96 71.76
Tennessee 0.5 5.48 6.38 0.74 28.04 24.56 65.7
San Diego 0.06 1.52 7.08 49.52 0.86 2.74 61.78
Cleveland 0.0 0.82 3.22 0.42 16.04 21.86 42.36
Kansas City 0.0 0.12 1.56 24.38 0.6 1.94 28.6
Denver 0.0 0.02 0.42 15.3 0.5 1.3 17.54
Buffalo 0.0 0.06 0.12 0.02 6.7 9.58 16.48
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.04 0.4 1.48 1.98
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.68 1.54 2.24
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.08 0.86 0.96
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 51.52 37.66 4.34 0.44 3.52 1.74 99.22
Green Bay 41.98 39.0 3.56 0.36 11.66 2.76 99.32
Detroit 4.52 9.04 1.1 0.2 26.7 23.38 64.94
Tampa Bay 0.9 5.84 40.46 23.76 0.46 2.22 73.64
NY Giants 0.72 3.1 0.32 0.02 40.3 25.54 70.0
Seattle 0.18 1.86 20.96 26.32 1.06 2.92 53.3
Washington 0.16 1.22 0.36 0.06 7.4 13.36 22.56
Arizona 0.02 0.88 12.06 37.62 0.46 2.4 53.44
Carolina 0.0 0.74 8.48 5.2 1.5 5.62 21.54
New Orleans 0.0 0.46 6.14 3.26 1.22 3.76 14.84
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 2.14 2.62 0.02 0.94 5.72
Chicago 0.0 0.14 0.06 0.04 2.54 7.02 9.8
Philadelphia 0.0 0.06 0.02 0.0 2.42 6.12 8.62
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.74 2.22 2.96
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.0 0.0 0.06
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.0 0.04

Generated: Mon Nov 12 23:27:30 EST 2007

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2007 Playoff Predictions After Week 9

Tuesday, November 6th, 2007

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.64 0.36 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.36 97.64 1.74 0.26
NY Jets 0.0 1.06 66.42 32.52
Miami 0.0 0.94 31.84 67.22

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 81.34 15.92 2.74 0.0
Cleveland 14.9 58.08 25.24 1.78
Baltimore 3.74 25.16 63.4 7.7
Cincinnati 0.02 0.84 8.62 90.52

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 70.16 24.18 5.46 0.2
Tennessee 24.8 53.2 19.98 2.02
Jacksonville 4.98 21.34 62.46 11.22
Houston 0.06 1.28 12.1 86.56

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 55.02 31.46 12.48 1.04
San Diego 36.24 47.02 15.16 1.58
Denver 8.44 19.68 57.18 14.7
Oakland 0.3 1.84 15.18 82.68

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 65.42 24.56 9.5 0.52
NY Giants 23.38 48.16 25.24 3.22
Washington 11.08 25.52 54.34 9.06
Philadelphia 0.12 1.76 10.92 87.2

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 73.06 25.9 0.98 0.06
Detroit 26.82 69.78 3.28 0.12
Minnesota 0.1 3.72 61.5 34.68
Chicago 0.02 0.6 34.24 65.14

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 57.88 26.88 13.2 2.04
New Orleans 22.76 34.56 35.66 7.02
Carolina 18.1 34.8 38.66 8.44
Atlanta 1.26 3.76 12.48 82.5

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 63.08 28.2 8.58 0.14
Arizona 28.08 43.6 28.0 0.32
San Francisco 8.82 28.0 61.04 2.14
St Louis 0.02 0.2 2.38 97.4

Generated: Mon Nov 05 23:24:33 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 74.94 16.62 7.88 0.2 0.22 0.1 99.96
Indianapolis 9.84 37.96 20.12 2.24 17.3 6.84 94.3
Pittsburgh 10.86 22.48 42.16 5.84 3.82 5.76 90.92
Tennessee 3.36 15.38 5.56 0.5 42.66 16.64 84.1
Jacksonville 0.52 2.62 1.64 0.2 16.44 25.66 47.08
Cleveland 0.2 2.08 10.68 1.94 8.92 20.48 44.3
Kansas City 0.14 1.36 5.42 48.1 0.46 1.4 56.88
San Diego 0.06 0.76 3.32 32.1 0.8 2.36 39.4
Baltimore 0.06 0.68 2.68 0.32 4.5 9.38 17.62
Buffalo 0.02 0.06 0.22 0.06 4.1 7.84 12.3
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.26 8.18 0.04 0.6 9.08
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.0 0.66 2.78 3.5
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.04 0.34
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.08 0.12 0.22
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 46.3 23.76 2.86 0.14 18.5 5.6 97.16
Dallas 31.56 28.06 5.46 0.34 13.92 11.68 91.02
Detroit 12.48 11.98 2.2 0.16 25.6 19.82 72.24
NY Giants 5.6 14.8 2.7 0.28 23.46 22.96 69.8
Washington 1.84 6.92 2.08 0.24 12.14 19.38 42.6
Tampa Bay 1.12 7.04 36.18 13.54 1.1 3.7 62.68
Carolina 0.46 2.14 12.4 3.1 1.44 5.0 24.54
New Orleans 0.3 3.28 16.98 2.2 2.52 7.06 32.34
Seattle 0.28 1.8 15.78 45.22 0.08 0.36 63.52
Arizona 0.04 0.1 1.76 26.18 0.0 0.26 28.34
Chicago 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.56 0.64
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.66 8.16 0.0 0.02 8.84
Atlanta 0.0 0.04 0.84 0.38 0.0 0.1 1.36
Minnesota 0.0 0.04 0.06 0.0 0.52 1.82 2.44
Philadelphia 0.0 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.66 1.68 2.46
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02

Generated: Mon Nov 05 23:24:33 EST 2007

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