NFL playoff races and other musings

The good news is that these predictions incorporate Brian Burke’s individual game odds. You can (and should) read more about Brian’s work here. The plan is to use Brian’s game forecasts from here forward. The bad news is that in the process of converting over to Brian’s game predictions, I’ve mucked something up in the code. It only effects the Java Webstart version of the code (it runs fine when I compile and run it on my machine). I should have that fixed within a day or so.

Here are this week’s predictions.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Buffalo	0.0	99.42	0.58	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	0.42	76.34	23.24
Miami	0.0	0.16	23.08	76.76

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	90.28	9.7	0.02	0.0
Cleveland	9.72	87.78	2.5	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0	2.52	91.64	5.84
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	5.84	94.16

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	97.54	2.46	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	2.46	92.64	4.88	0.02
Tennessee	0.0	4.66	82.64	12.7
Houston	0.0	0.24	12.48	87.28

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	77.74	19.24	3.02	0.0
Denver	19.88	65.8	13.96	0.36
Kansas City	2.38	14.92	79.42	3.28
Oakland	0.0	0.04	3.6	96.36

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Giants	0.0	75.86	14.14	10.0
Philadelphia	0.0	10.82	48.6	40.58
Washington	0.0	13.32	37.26	49.42

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	73.96	21.26	4.78
Detroit	0.0	23.14	67.56	9.3
Chicago	0.0	2.9	11.18	85.92

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tampa Bay	99.78	0.22	0.0	0.0
New Orleans	0.22	78.82	15.64	5.32
Carolina	0.0	10.62	60.16	29.22
Atlanta	0.0	10.34	24.2	65.46

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	94.28	5.72	0.0	0.0
Arizona	5.72	92.04	2.02	0.22
San Francisco	0.0	1.46	83.1	15.44
St Louis	0.0	0.78	14.88	84.34

Generated: Wed Nov 28 00:01:58 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New England	99.66	0.18	0.16	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Indianapolis	0.3	91.92	5.26	0.06	2.32	0.14	100.0
Pittsburgh	0.04	6.02	73.86	10.36	1.78	6.78	98.84
Jacksonville	0.0	1.8	0.66	0.0	81.9	13.16	97.52
San Diego	0.0	0.02	10.36	67.36	0.08	2.78	80.6
Cleveland	0.0	0.06	8.82	0.84	10.72	52.92	73.36
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.88	19.0	0.12	4.84	24.84
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.38	0.0	0.16	2.54
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.9	14.78	17.68
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.08	2.96	3.04
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	1.02	1.06
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.46	0.52
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Dallas	73.18	25.12	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0	100.0
Green Bay	26.72	68.96	3.6	0.72	0.0	0.0	100.0
Tampa Bay	0.04	4.5	56.68	38.56	0.02	0.12	99.92
Seattle	0.06	1.42	38.26	54.54	1.18	1.86	97.32
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.04	5.68	1.06	6.06	12.84
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	53.84	23.82	77.66
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	22.86	23.84	46.7
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.68	13.4	22.08
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.2	4.3	10.78	15.3
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.04	15.36	22.4
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	3.54	4.14
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.38	0.94	1.32
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.14	0.18
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.14	0.14
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 28 00:01:58 EST 2007

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 28th, 2007 at 1:22 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.