2007 Playoff predictions after week 12
The good news is that these predictions incorporate Brian Burke’s individual game odds. You can (and should) read more about Brian’s work here. The plan is to use Brian’s game forecasts from here forward. The bad news is that in the process of converting over to Brian’s game predictions, I’ve mucked something up in the code. It only effects the Java Webstart version of the code (it runs fine when I compile and run it on my machine). I should have that fixed within a day or so.
Here are this week’s predictions.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 99.42 | 0.58 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.42 | 76.34 | 23.24 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.16 | 23.08 | 76.76 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Pittsburgh | 90.28 | 9.7 | 0.02 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 9.72 | 87.78 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 2.52 | 91.64 | 5.84 |
| Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.84 | 94.16 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Indianapolis | 97.54 | 2.46 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 2.46 | 92.64 | 4.88 | 0.02 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 4.66 | 82.64 | 12.7 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.24 | 12.48 | 87.28 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Diego | 77.74 | 19.24 | 3.02 | 0.0 |
| Denver | 19.88 | 65.8 | 13.96 | 0.36 |
| Kansas City | 2.38 | 14.92 | 79.42 | 3.28 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.04 | 3.6 | 96.36 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Dallas | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Giants | 0.0 | 75.86 | 14.14 | 10.0 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 10.82 | 48.6 | 40.58 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 13.32 | 37.26 | 49.42 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 73.96 | 21.26 | 4.78 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 23.14 | 67.56 | 9.3 |
| Chicago | 0.0 | 2.9 | 11.18 | 85.92 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Tampa Bay | 99.78 | 0.22 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Orleans | 0.22 | 78.82 | 15.64 | 5.32 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 10.62 | 60.16 | 29.22 |
| Atlanta | 0.0 | 10.34 | 24.2 | 65.46 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Seattle | 94.28 | 5.72 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 5.72 | 92.04 | 2.02 | 0.22 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 1.46 | 83.1 | 15.44 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.78 | 14.88 | 84.34 |
Generated: Wed Nov 28 00:01:58 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| New England | 99.66 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Indianapolis | 0.3 | 91.92 | 5.26 | 0.06 | 2.32 | 0.14 | 100.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.04 | 6.02 | 73.86 | 10.36 | 1.78 | 6.78 | 98.84 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.66 | 0.0 | 81.9 | 13.16 | 97.52 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.02 | 10.36 | 67.36 | 0.08 | 2.78 | 80.6 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.06 | 8.82 | 0.84 | 10.72 | 52.92 | 73.36 |
| Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.88 | 19.0 | 0.12 | 4.84 | 24.84 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.38 | 0.0 | 0.16 | 2.54 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 14.78 | 17.68 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.08 | 2.96 | 3.04 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 1.02 | 1.06 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.06 | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Dallas | 73.18 | 25.12 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Green Bay | 26.72 | 68.96 | 3.6 | 0.72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.04 | 4.5 | 56.68 | 38.56 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 99.92 |
| Seattle | 0.06 | 1.42 | 38.26 | 54.54 | 1.18 | 1.86 | 97.32 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 5.68 | 1.06 | 6.06 | 12.84 |
| NY Giants | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 53.84 | 23.82 | 77.66 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.86 | 23.84 | 46.7 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.68 | 13.4 | 22.08 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 10.78 | 15.3 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.04 | 15.36 | 22.4 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 3.54 | 4.14 |
| Chicago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.38 | 0.94 | 1.32 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Wed Nov 28 00:01:58 EST 2007
December 4th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
[…] that the nfl-forecast.com blog, powered by Brian Burke’s prediction model give the Bills. After Week 12 the Bills had just a 3% chance of obtaining one of the two AFC wild cards. Granted this number […]