This post marks the end of one era and the beginning of another. Up until now, my playoff predictions have been pretty much a one man show. Beginning next week, I’ll be using Brian Burke’s team ratings http://www.bbnflstats.com/ to predict the odds of individual games. I’m really excited about this collaboration, as I think it will improve the accuracy of the predictions. Brian’s fully documented team rating methods compliment the hands-on software approach I’ve used. We’re entering the time of the NFL season where scenario analysis for your team becomes very worthwhile. There may be some minor changes to the appearance of the software, but the overall functionality of the software will be the same, except for better accuracy. I’ll do a full quantitative evaluation over the off season.
This is probably as good as place as any to also acknowledge the contributions of Mike M. SteeleFan. He encouraged me to take my predictions from a mostly private hobby to a publically-distributed website. He also goaded me into learning Java to make it possible, as well as provided feedback on the graphical interface. Thanks, Mike.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New England | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 99.46 | 0.54 | 0.0 |
NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.32 | 78.3 | 21.38 |
Miami | 0.0 | 0.22 | 21.16 | 78.62 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Pittsburgh | 75.24 | 24.4 | 0.36 | 0.0 |
Cleveland | 24.7 | 73.5 | 1.66 | 0.14 |
Cincinnati | 0.04 | 1.58 | 55.56 | 42.82 |
Baltimore | 0.02 | 0.52 | 42.42 | 57.04 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Indianapolis | 84.6 | 12.32 | 3.0 | 0.08 |
Jacksonville | 12.54 | 58.74 | 26.48 | 2.24 |
Tennessee | 2.8 | 27.1 | 60.56 | 9.54 |
Houston | 0.06 | 1.84 | 9.96 | 88.14 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Diego | 55.52 | 29.18 | 14.82 | 0.48 |
Denver | 33.04 | 46.52 | 19.6 | 0.84 |
Kansas City | 11.44 | 23.78 | 59.36 | 5.42 |
Oakland | 0.0 | 0.52 | 6.22 | 93.26 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Dallas | 95.06 | 4.86 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
NY Giants | 4.78 | 78.5 | 12.34 | 4.38 |
Washington | 0.08 | 9.74 | 44.96 | 45.22 |
Philadelphia | 0.08 | 6.9 | 42.64 | 50.38 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Green Bay | 96.76 | 3.24 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Detroit | 3.24 | 85.74 | 10.46 | 0.56 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 9.76 | 63.46 | 26.78 |
Chicago | 0.0 | 1.26 | 26.08 | 72.66 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Tampa Bay | 91.42 | 7.24 | 1.28 | 0.06 |
Carolina | 5.16 | 50.24 | 37.92 | 6.68 |
New Orleans | 3.34 | 37.88 | 42.82 | 15.96 |
Atlanta | 0.08 | 4.64 | 17.98 | 77.3 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Seattle | 67.14 | 32.64 | 0.22 | 0.0 |
Arizona | 32.86 | 65.46 | 1.54 | 0.14 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 1.4 | 57.44 | 41.16 |
San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.5 | 40.8 | 58.7 |
Generated: Mon Nov 19 23:59:45 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
New England | 96.26 | 3.34 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Indianapolis | 2.58 | 70.16 | 11.32 | 0.54 | 10.54 | 3.48 | 98.62 |
Pittsburgh | 0.96 | 11.88 | 50.34 | 12.06 | 3.44 | 7.26 | 85.94 |
Jacksonville | 0.18 | 10.04 | 2.22 | 0.1 | 51.92 | 21.94 | 86.4 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 1.86 | 19.68 | 3.16 | 7.74 | 19.06 | 51.5 |
Tennessee | 0.02 | 2.1 | 0.64 | 0.04 | 22.62 | 33.4 | 58.82 |
San Diego | 0.0 | 0.44 | 9.34 | 45.74 | 0.2 | 1.36 | 57.08 |
Denver | 0.0 | 0.18 | 5.54 | 27.32 | 0.32 | 3.06 | 36.42 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.46 | 10.98 | 0.0 | 0.36 | 11.8 |
Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 1.06 | 4.3 | 5.42 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.14 | 5.5 | 7.64 |
Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.16 | 0.2 |
Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Green Bay | 50.4 | 41.44 | 4.42 | 0.5 | 2.52 | 0.64 | 99.92 |
Dallas | 47.46 | 41.04 | 5.82 | 0.74 | 3.98 | 0.86 | 99.9 |
Tampa Bay | 0.72 | 7.82 | 42.02 | 40.86 | 0.2 | 0.84 | 92.46 |
NY Giants | 0.64 | 3.48 | 0.62 | 0.04 | 68.8 | 14.56 | 88.14 |
Seattle | 0.2 | 3.82 | 35.44 | 27.68 | 2.2 | 6.56 | 75.9 |
Detroit | 0.58 | 1.96 | 0.52 | 0.18 | 7.32 | 27.74 | 38.3 |
Arizona | 0.0 | 0.32 | 7.98 | 24.56 | 0.64 | 7.5 | 41.0 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.92 | 3.24 | 0.7 | 4.36 | 10.22 |
New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.02 | 1.22 | 2.1 | 0.74 | 4.72 | 8.8 |
Washington | 0.0 | 0.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 15.58 | 22.76 |
Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 4.6 | 13.62 | 18.3 |
Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.7 |
Chicago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | 0.38 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Mon Nov 19 23:59:45 EST 2007
Interesting that Philly has a 5% chance of winning 7 games when only 6 remain; and a 20% chance of winning their remaining 6 games. Guessing you don’t account for their tie.
Whoops. I just entered the game outcome incorrectly in the database. Thanks for your note.