Archive for October, 2009

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 7

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL StatsPercent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 79.82 16.12 3.64 0.42
NY Jets 15.92 56.22 21.42 6.44
Miami 3.72 19.84 49.62 26.82
Buffalo 0.54 7.82 25.32 66.32

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 56.12 38.92 4.96 0.0
Cincinnati 41.88 53.18 4.94 0.0
Baltimore 2.0 7.9 89.7 0.4
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.56 0.42 0.02 0.0
Jacksonville 0.26 60.36 37.88 1.5
Houston 0.18 38.9 58.24 2.68
Tennessee 0.0 0.32 3.86 95.82

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 98.76 1.24 0.0 0.0
San Diego 1.24 98.46 0.3 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.28 84.26 15.46
Kansas City 0.0 0.02 15.44 84.54

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 59.74 31.64 8.6 0.02
Dallas 33.76 49.92 16.22 0.1
Philadelphia 6.5 18.32 73.06 2.12
Washington 0.0 0.12 2.12 97.76

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 47.78 42.5 9.72 0.0
Minnesota 45.92 40.68 13.34 0.06
Chicago 6.3 16.78 75.86 1.06
Detroit 0.0 0.04 1.08 98.88

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 99.48 0.52 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.52 97.84 1.64 0.0
Carolina 0.0 1.6 95.2 3.2
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.04 3.16 96.8

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 87.42 10.64 1.88 0.06
San Francisco 10.0 61.72 28.02 0.26
Seattle 2.56 27.56 67.72 2.16
St Louis 0.02 0.08 2.38 97.52

Generated: Thu Oct 29 00:18:46 EDT 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 67.14 26.22 5.1 1.1 0.24 0.14 99.94
Denver 30.08 54.4 12.84 1.44 0.86 0.22 99.84
Pittsburgh 2.36 13.34 33.36 7.06 25.6 9.86 91.58
New England 0.3 2.5 17.14 59.88 1.44 3.04 84.3
Cincinnati 0.08 2.68 27.5 11.62 20.12 17.1 79.1
NY Jets 0.02 0.22 2.42 13.26 3.6 8.72 28.24
San Diego 0.0 0.28 0.74 0.22 25.5 26.4 53.14
Houston 0.02 0.12 0.02 0.02 6.94 11.46 18.58
Baltimore 0.0 0.16 0.56 1.28 2.62 4.98 9.6
Jacksonville 0.0 0.08 0.08 0.1 12.82 16.32 29.4
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.22 3.5 0.22 1.32 5.26
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.52 0.04 0.38 0.96
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.06
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 92.6 5.44 1.26 0.18 0.4 0.1 99.98
Green Bay 2.16 23.84 13.86 7.92 23.32 13.66 84.76
Minnesota 1.86 20.5 14.3 9.26 19.98 13.38 79.28
Arizona 1.44 19.54 24.5 41.94 0.7 1.38 89.5
NY Giants 0.52 16.76 24.4 18.06 10.04 10.98 80.76
Dallas 1.2 10.24 14.68 7.64 20.38 18.5 72.64
Chicago 0.04 2.12 2.28 1.86 4.88 9.82 21.0
Atlanta 0.16 0.24 0.12 0.0 14.84 20.42 35.78
Philadelphia 0.02 1.18 2.92 2.38 4.52 8.32 19.34
San Francisco 0.0 0.08 1.38 8.54 0.64 2.74 13.38
Seattle 0.0 0.06 0.3 2.2 0.3 0.64 3.5
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Oct 29 00:18:46 EDT 2009

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2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 5

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 64.2 27.08 7.34 1.38
New England 27.18 47.62 21.1 4.1
Miami 7.86 21.42 52.74 17.98
Buffalo 0.76 3.88 18.82 76.54

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 57.16 34.8 8.0 0.04
Cincinnati 38.04 50.3 11.58 0.08
Baltimore 4.8 14.84 78.46 1.9
Cleveland 0.0 0.06 1.96 97.98

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.8 0.18 0.02 0.0
Jacksonville 0.18 71.4 22.08 6.34
Houston 0.02 20.1 46.68 33.2
Tennessee 0.0 8.32 31.22 60.46

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 97.14 2.86 0.0 0.0
San Diego 2.86 94.88 2.12 0.14
Oakland 0.0 0.94 58.42 40.64
Kansas City 0.0 1.32 39.46 59.22

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 78.56 18.2 3.2 0.04
Philadelphia 16.52 49.32 30.72 3.44
Dallas 4.88 31.02 55.84 8.26
Washington 0.04 1.46 10.24 88.26

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 44.86 32.7 21.96 0.48
Chicago 36.14 32.84 30.18 0.84
Green Bay 18.94 34.02 44.28 2.76
Detroit 0.06 0.44 3.58 95.92

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 91.66 8.34 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 8.32 89.26 2.38 0.04
Carolina 0.02 2.26 86.22 11.5
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.14 11.4 88.46

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 43.4 31.56 24.38 0.66
San Francisco 27.44 35.16 36.88 0.52
Seattle 29.12 33.04 37.04 0.8
St Louis 0.04 0.24 1.7 98.02

Generated: Thu Oct 15 00:44:13 EDT 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 81.84 14.62 2.8 0.54 0.08 0.08 99.96
Denver 14.12 54.9 22.7 5.42 1.32 0.76 99.22
Pittsburgh 2.58 18.28 28.62 7.68 25.4 9.26 91.82
Cincinnati 0.8 6.76 21.54 8.94 27.0 14.94 79.98
NY Jets 0.54 3.74 16.16 43.76 4.82 7.06 76.08
Baltimore 0.06 0.84 2.04 1.86 6.62 11.68 23.1
New England 0.06 0.42 3.98 22.72 4.14 10.84 42.16
San Diego 0.0 0.4 1.44 1.02 7.74 14.84 25.44
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.6 7.26 0.98 3.08 11.92
Jacksonville 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.06 18.14 19.56 37.88
Houston 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 3.24 5.12 8.38
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.74 0.08 0.4 1.24
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.42 2.28 2.7
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.08 0.1
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 57.24 26.46 7.24 0.72 5.26 1.68 98.6
NY Giants 31.1 34.9 11.84 0.72 11.94 5.0 95.5
Minnesota 3.48 10.06 25.54 5.78 7.08 11.86 63.8
Philadelphia 2.18 9.02 4.9 0.42 25.12 18.14 59.78
Chicago 1.72 7.42 23.14 3.86 6.92 10.88 53.94
Atlanta 2.1 4.04 2.08 0.1 20.82 19.54 48.68
Dallas 1.16 2.04 1.48 0.2 15.0 17.26 37.14
Green Bay 0.74 3.8 11.3 3.1 7.06 12.44 38.44
Arizona 0.2 1.78 8.04 33.38 0.26 1.14 44.8
Seattle 0.06 0.3 2.86 25.9 0.18 0.78 30.08
San Francisco 0.02 0.18 1.56 25.68 0.1 0.62 28.16
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.26 0.52 0.82
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.0 0.06 0.12
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.0 0.04
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.08 0.1
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Oct 15 00:44:13 EDT 2009

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2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 4

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 81.52 15.28 2.82 0.38
New England 14.9 58.6 19.38 7.12
Buffalo 1.94 12.4 41.68 43.98
Miami 1.64 13.72 36.12 48.52

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 50.74 32.2 16.74 0.32
Baltimore 31.56 34.4 33.62 0.42
Cincinnati 17.7 33.22 48.18 0.9
Cleveland 0.0 0.18 1.46 98.36

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 96.86 2.98 0.16 0.0
Jacksonville 2.78 74.5 19.02 3.7
Houston 0.28 17.72 53.86 28.14
Tennessee 0.08 4.8 26.96 68.16

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 92.28 7.7 0.02 0.0
San Diego 7.72 86.46 4.96 0.86
Oakland 0.0 2.86 57.54 39.6
Kansas City 0.0 2.98 37.48 59.54

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 67.28 27.16 5.06 0.5
Philadelphia 28.52 47.38 18.76 5.34
Dallas 3.34 19.22 50.52 26.92
Washington 0.86 6.24 25.66 67.24

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 43.7 35.22 19.94 1.14
Chicago 39.94 33.22 25.18 1.66
Green Bay 16.1 30.08 46.94 6.88
Detroit 0.26 1.48 7.94 90.32

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 98.88 1.12 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 1.12 87.26 10.1 1.52
Carolina 0.0 7.84 57.66 34.5
Tampa Bay 0.0 3.78 32.24 63.98

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 57.78 34.9 7.16 0.16
Arizona 36.8 45.74 16.62 0.84
Seattle 5.34 18.96 68.9 6.8
St Louis 0.08 0.4 7.32 92.2

Generated: Wed Oct 07 12:15:23 EDT 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 75.1 15.88 4.56 1.32 2.44 0.52 99.82
Denver 15.1 40.56 22.64 13.98 2.14 1.88 96.3
NY Jets 3.84 15.76 26.36 35.56 3.16 3.3 87.98
Pittsburgh 3.22 14.0 20.26 13.26 13.56 13.68 77.98
Baltimore 1.16 7.48 10.9 12.02 10.86 14.02 56.44
Jacksonville 0.96 1.04 0.58 0.2 39.24 20.44 62.46
Cincinnati 0.22 2.3 7.4 7.78 8.32 12.68 38.7
New England 0.2 1.34 4.48 8.88 5.44 8.08 28.42
San Diego 0.12 1.46 2.28 3.86 7.06 11.4 26.18
Houston 0.08 0.06 0.1 0.04 6.32 9.14 15.74
Buffalo 0.0 0.08 0.12 1.74 0.36 1.18 3.48
Miami 0.0 0.02 0.3 1.32 0.28 0.8 2.72
Tennessee 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.8 2.68 3.56
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.12 0.14
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.06
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 72.42 19.4 6.14 0.92 0.66 0.28 99.82
NY Giants 17.02 32.66 14.0 3.6 17.76 7.62 92.66
Minnesota 3.52 10.7 21.9 7.58 10.4 14.18 68.28
Philadelphia 2.54 15.0 8.78 2.2 28.58 14.36 71.46
Chicago 2.44 10.26 19.26 7.98 10.28 12.66 62.88
San Francisco 0.5 3.42 10.24 43.62 1.5 3.46 62.74
Green Bay 0.46 3.58 8.04 4.02 8.18 13.42 37.7
Arizona 0.48 2.96 8.9 24.46 2.58 5.68 45.06
Atlanta 0.38 0.36 0.3 0.08 7.96 10.12 19.2
Dallas 0.18 1.38 1.46 0.32 9.68 13.04 26.06
Washington 0.06 0.24 0.3 0.26 2.1 3.36 6.32
Seattle 0.0 0.04 0.54 4.76 0.22 1.1 6.66
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.12 0.08 0.54 0.88
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.0 0.08
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.16 0.18
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02

Generated: Wed Oct 07 12:15:23 EDT 2009

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2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 3

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

This is the first week I’m doing playoff predictions for the 2009 season. I’ll keep this updated every week.To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 82.64 13.34 3.26 0.76
New England 8.68 44.36 31.36 15.6
Buffalo 6.98 29.4 39.78 23.84
Miami 1.7 12.9 25.6 59.8

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 66.76 23.22 9.92 0.1
Pittsburgh 23.52 45.66 29.72 1.1
Cincinnati 9.72 30.6 56.62 3.06
Cleveland 0.0 0.52 3.74 95.74

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 97.4 2.16 0.44 0.0
Jacksonville 1.42 54.3 28.0 16.28
Houston 0.36 20.04 38.24 41.36
Tennessee 0.82 23.5 33.32 42.36

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 75.24 23.34 1.34 0.08
San Diego 24.08 67.06 7.42 1.44
Kansas City 0.58 6.28 44.32 48.82
Oakland 0.1 3.32 46.92 49.66

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 53.94 30.24 13.68 2.14
Philadelphia 32.18 35.36 23.5 8.96
Dallas 12.04 26.74 41.7 19.52
Washington 1.84 7.66 21.12 69.38

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 37.42 33.08 25.62 3.88
Chicago 33.64 33.62 28.52 4.22
Minnesota 28.42 30.86 36.08 4.64
Detroit 0.52 2.44 9.78 87.26

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.6 4.22 0.18 0.0
Atlanta 4.3 79.6 13.5 2.6
Carolina 0.08 9.74 53.1 37.08
Tampa Bay 0.02 6.44 33.22 60.32

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 49.96 33.06 14.9 2.08
Arizona 35.8 37.06 23.48 3.66
Seattle 13.56 26.64 48.9 10.9
St Louis 0.68 3.24 12.72 83.36

Generated: Thu Oct 01 17:06:26 EDT 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 66.52 19.72 7.5 3.66 1.06 0.68 99.14
Denver 11.7 25.44 21.84 16.26 10.28 6.26 91.78
Baltimore 10.1 20.92 20.1 15.64 10.98 7.62 85.36
NY Jets 7.36 19.1 25.88 30.3 2.92 3.5 89.06
Pittsburgh 1.74 5.5 8.66 7.62 18.24 15.06 56.82
San Diego 1.62 5.7 8.18 8.58 18.4 15.8 58.28
Cincinnati 0.38 1.44 3.28 4.62 7.14 10.16 27.02
Jacksonville 0.3 0.38 0.46 0.28 14.82 14.0 30.24
New England 0.16 1.12 1.92 5.48 4.82 6.94 20.44
Buffalo 0.06 0.4 1.38 5.14 2.58 4.72 14.28
Tennessee 0.06 0.1 0.26 0.4 3.7 6.34 10.86
Houston 0.0 0.08 0.18 0.1 3.9 5.42 9.68
Miami 0.0 0.02 0.24 1.44 0.4 1.48 3.58
Kansas City 0.0 0.04 0.12 0.42 0.48 1.16 2.22
Oakland 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.06 0.24 0.74 1.08
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.12 0.16

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 64.38 18.88 9.84 2.5 1.76 1.06 98.42
NY Giants 14.78 22.62 13.38 3.16 17.66 10.6 82.2
Philadelphia 5.08 14.74 10.2 2.16 19.22 14.44 65.84
Green Bay 4.32 11.38 14.62 7.1 10.26 11.4 59.08
Chicago 3.22 9.82 14.42 6.18 10.46 12.0 56.1
Minnesota 2.8 8.56 11.84 5.22 8.52 10.44 47.38
Dallas 2.34 4.72 3.96 1.02 15.06 15.3 42.4
San Francisco 0.96 3.5 8.54 36.96 1.28 3.22 54.46
Arizona 0.9 3.46 8.8 22.64 2.6 3.68 42.08
Atlanta 0.98 1.44 1.16 0.72 9.18 10.8 24.28
Washington 0.18 0.34 0.74 0.58 2.76 4.1 8.7
Seattle 0.02 0.42 2.22 10.9 0.78 1.62 15.96
Detroit 0.02 0.1 0.16 0.24 0.22 0.84 1.58
Carolina 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.0 0.2 0.38 0.66
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.68
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.18

Generated: Thu Oct 01 17:06:26 EDT 2009

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