This is the first week I’m doing playoff predictions for the 2009 season. I’ll keep this updated every week.To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Jets | 82.64 | 13.34 | 3.26 | 0.76 |
| New England | 8.68 | 44.36 | 31.36 | 15.6 |
| Buffalo | 6.98 | 29.4 | 39.78 | 23.84 |
| Miami | 1.7 | 12.9 | 25.6 | 59.8 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 66.76 | 23.22 | 9.92 | 0.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.52 | 45.66 | 29.72 | 1.1 |
| Cincinnati | 9.72 | 30.6 | 56.62 | 3.06 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.52 | 3.74 | 95.74 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Indianapolis | 97.4 | 2.16 | 0.44 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 1.42 | 54.3 | 28.0 | 16.28 |
| Houston | 0.36 | 20.04 | 38.24 | 41.36 |
| Tennessee | 0.82 | 23.5 | 33.32 | 42.36 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 75.24 | 23.34 | 1.34 | 0.08 |
| San Diego | 24.08 | 67.06 | 7.42 | 1.44 |
| Kansas City | 0.58 | 6.28 | 44.32 | 48.82 |
| Oakland | 0.1 | 3.32 | 46.92 | 49.66 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 53.94 | 30.24 | 13.68 | 2.14 |
| Philadelphia | 32.18 | 35.36 | 23.5 | 8.96 |
| Dallas | 12.04 | 26.74 | 41.7 | 19.52 |
| Washington | 1.84 | 7.66 | 21.12 | 69.38 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 37.42 | 33.08 | 25.62 | 3.88 |
| Chicago | 33.64 | 33.62 | 28.52 | 4.22 |
| Minnesota | 28.42 | 30.86 | 36.08 | 4.64 |
| Detroit | 0.52 | 2.44 | 9.78 | 87.26 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New Orleans | 95.6 | 4.22 | 0.18 | 0.0 |
| Atlanta | 4.3 | 79.6 | 13.5 | 2.6 |
| Carolina | 0.08 | 9.74 | 53.1 | 37.08 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.02 | 6.44 | 33.22 | 60.32 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 49.96 | 33.06 | 14.9 | 2.08 |
| Arizona | 35.8 | 37.06 | 23.48 | 3.66 |
| Seattle | 13.56 | 26.64 | 48.9 | 10.9 |
| St Louis | 0.68 | 3.24 | 12.72 | 83.36 |
Generated: Thu Oct 01 17:06:26 EDT 2009
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Indianapolis | 66.52 | 19.72 | 7.5 | 3.66 | 1.06 | 0.68 | 99.14 |
| Denver | 11.7 | 25.44 | 21.84 | 16.26 | 10.28 | 6.26 | 91.78 |
| Baltimore | 10.1 | 20.92 | 20.1 | 15.64 | 10.98 | 7.62 | 85.36 |
| NY Jets | 7.36 | 19.1 | 25.88 | 30.3 | 2.92 | 3.5 | 89.06 |
| Pittsburgh | 1.74 | 5.5 | 8.66 | 7.62 | 18.24 | 15.06 | 56.82 |
| San Diego | 1.62 | 5.7 | 8.18 | 8.58 | 18.4 | 15.8 | 58.28 |
| Cincinnati | 0.38 | 1.44 | 3.28 | 4.62 | 7.14 | 10.16 | 27.02 |
| Jacksonville | 0.3 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.28 | 14.82 | 14.0 | 30.24 |
| New England | 0.16 | 1.12 | 1.92 | 5.48 | 4.82 | 6.94 | 20.44 |
| Buffalo | 0.06 | 0.4 | 1.38 | 5.14 | 2.58 | 4.72 | 14.28 |
| Tennessee | 0.06 | 0.1 | 0.26 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 6.34 | 10.86 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 5.42 | 9.68 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 1.44 | 0.4 | 1.48 | 3.58 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 1.16 | 2.22 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.74 | 1.08 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| New Orleans | 64.38 | 18.88 | 9.84 | 2.5 | 1.76 | 1.06 | 98.42 |
| NY Giants | 14.78 | 22.62 | 13.38 | 3.16 | 17.66 | 10.6 | 82.2 |
| Philadelphia | 5.08 | 14.74 | 10.2 | 2.16 | 19.22 | 14.44 | 65.84 |
| Green Bay | 4.32 | 11.38 | 14.62 | 7.1 | 10.26 | 11.4 | 59.08 |
| Chicago | 3.22 | 9.82 | 14.42 | 6.18 | 10.46 | 12.0 | 56.1 |
| Minnesota | 2.8 | 8.56 | 11.84 | 5.22 | 8.52 | 10.44 | 47.38 |
| Dallas | 2.34 | 4.72 | 3.96 | 1.02 | 15.06 | 15.3 | 42.4 |
| San Francisco | 0.96 | 3.5 | 8.54 | 36.96 | 1.28 | 3.22 | 54.46 |
| Arizona | 0.9 | 3.46 | 8.8 | 22.64 | 2.6 | 3.68 | 42.08 |
| Atlanta | 0.98 | 1.44 | 1.16 | 0.72 | 9.18 | 10.8 | 24.28 |
| Washington | 0.18 | 0.34 | 0.74 | 0.58 | 2.76 | 4.1 | 8.7 |
| Seattle | 0.02 | 0.42 | 2.22 | 10.9 | 0.78 | 1.62 | 15.96 |
| Detroit | 0.02 | 0.1 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.84 | 1.58 |
| Carolina | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.08 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.68 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
Generated: Thu Oct 01 17:06:26 EDT 2009