NFL playoff races and other musings

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Jets	81.52	15.28	2.82	0.38
New England	14.9	58.6	19.38	7.12
Buffalo	1.94	12.4	41.68	43.98
Miami	1.64	13.72	36.12	48.52

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	50.74	32.2	16.74	0.32
Baltimore	31.56	34.4	33.62	0.42
Cincinnati	17.7	33.22	48.18	0.9
Cleveland	0.0	0.18	1.46	98.36

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	96.86	2.98	0.16	0.0
Jacksonville	2.78	74.5	19.02	3.7
Houston	0.28	17.72	53.86	28.14
Tennessee	0.08	4.8	26.96	68.16

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	92.28	7.7	0.02	0.0
San Diego	7.72	86.46	4.96	0.86
Oakland	0.0	2.86	57.54	39.6
Kansas City	0.0	2.98	37.48	59.54

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	67.28	27.16	5.06	0.5
Philadelphia	28.52	47.38	18.76	5.34
Dallas	3.34	19.22	50.52	26.92
Washington	0.86	6.24	25.66	67.24

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	43.7	35.22	19.94	1.14
Chicago	39.94	33.22	25.18	1.66
Green Bay	16.1	30.08	46.94	6.88
Detroit	0.26	1.48	7.94	90.32

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	98.88	1.12	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	1.12	87.26	10.1	1.52
Carolina	0.0	7.84	57.66	34.5
Tampa Bay	0.0	3.78	32.24	63.98

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	57.78	34.9	7.16	0.16
Arizona	36.8	45.74	16.62	0.84
Seattle	5.34	18.96	68.9	6.8
St Louis	0.08	0.4	7.32	92.2

Generated: Wed Oct 07 12:15:23 EDT 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	75.1	15.88	4.56	1.32	2.44	0.52	99.82
Denver	15.1	40.56	22.64	13.98	2.14	1.88	96.3
NY Jets	3.84	15.76	26.36	35.56	3.16	3.3	87.98
Pittsburgh	3.22	14.0	20.26	13.26	13.56	13.68	77.98
Baltimore	1.16	7.48	10.9	12.02	10.86	14.02	56.44
Jacksonville	0.96	1.04	0.58	0.2	39.24	20.44	62.46
Cincinnati	0.22	2.3	7.4	7.78	8.32	12.68	38.7
New England	0.2	1.34	4.48	8.88	5.44	8.08	28.42
San Diego	0.12	1.46	2.28	3.86	7.06	11.4	26.18
Houston	0.08	0.06	0.1	0.04	6.32	9.14	15.74
Buffalo	0.0	0.08	0.12	1.74	0.36	1.18	3.48
Miami	0.0	0.02	0.3	1.32	0.28	0.8	2.72
Tennessee	0.0	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.8	2.68	3.56
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.12	0.14
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.06
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	72.42	19.4	6.14	0.92	0.66	0.28	99.82
NY Giants	17.02	32.66	14.0	3.6	17.76	7.62	92.66
Minnesota	3.52	10.7	21.9	7.58	10.4	14.18	68.28
Philadelphia	2.54	15.0	8.78	2.2	28.58	14.36	71.46
Chicago	2.44	10.26	19.26	7.98	10.28	12.66	62.88
San Francisco	0.5	3.42	10.24	43.62	1.5	3.46	62.74
Green Bay	0.46	3.58	8.04	4.02	8.18	13.42	37.7
Arizona	0.48	2.96	8.9	24.46	2.58	5.68	45.06
Atlanta	0.38	0.36	0.3	0.08	7.96	10.12	19.2
Dallas	0.18	1.38	1.46	0.32	9.68	13.04	26.06
Washington	0.06	0.24	0.3	0.26	2.1	3.36	6.32
Seattle	0.0	0.04	0.54	4.76	0.22	1.1	6.66
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.14	0.12	0.08	0.54	0.88
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.08	0.0	0.0	0.08
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.16	0.18
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02

Generated: Wed Oct 07 12:15:23 EDT 2009

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