Below are screenshots from my software that show the odds of each team advancing to the Super Bowl.
Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats. I am using the team efficiency ratings going into week 17.
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 72.58 | 27.42 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 27.42 | 72.58 | 0.0 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Washington | 64.794 | 35.206 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dallas | 35.206 | 20.876 | 43.918 | 0.0 |
| NY Giants | 0.0 | 43.918 | 56.082 | 0.0 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 77.136 | 22.864 | 0.0 |
| Chicago | 0.0 | 22.864 | 77.136 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 46.158 | 53.842 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 53.842 | 0.0 | 46.158 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.158 | 53.842 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 89.106 | 10.894 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Seattle | 10.894 | 89.106 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Generated: Wed Dec 26 16:06:37 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 58.654 | 16.28 | 25.066 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Denver | 37.902 | 54.144 | 7.954 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| New England | 3.444 | 29.576 | 53.834 | 13.146 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.146 | 86.854 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Green Bay | 0.0 | 57.83 | 42.17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 37.32 | 51.786 | 0.0 | 10.894 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Seattle | 0.0 | 4.85 | 6.044 | 0.0 | 89.106 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.794 | 0.0 | 11.522 | 76.316 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.206 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.206 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 51.054 | 51.054 |
| Chicago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.864 | 22.864 |
| NY Giants | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.56 | 14.56 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Wed Dec 26 16:06:37 EST 2012
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 53.788 | 43.492 | 2.72 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 23.956 | 45.632 | 30.412 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 22.256 | 10.876 | 66.868 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 75.692 | 24.308 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 12.276 | 40.996 | 46.728 | 0.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 12.032 | 34.696 | 50.866 | 2.406 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.406 | 97.594 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 91.816 | 8.184 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 8.184 | 91.816 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Washington | 54.692 | 25.292 | 20.016 | 0.0 |
| Dallas | 29.97 | 34.12 | 35.91 | 0.0 |
| NY Giants | 15.338 | 40.588 | 44.074 | 0.0 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 60.304 | 39.696 | 0.0 |
| Chicago | 0.0 | 39.696 | 60.304 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 45.88 | 30.002 | 24.118 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 29.206 | 45.88 | 24.914 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 24.914 | 24.118 | 50.968 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 94.108 | 5.892 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Seattle | 5.892 | 94.108 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 97.3 | 2.7 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 97.3 |
Generated: Wed Dec 19 12:21:39 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 90.676 | 5.464 | 3.86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Denver | 7.808 | 77.942 | 14.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| New England | 1.516 | 16.594 | 67.512 | 14.378 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.378 | 61.314 | 6.474 | 17.834 | 100.0 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.276 | 3.82 | 37.296 | 53.392 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.032 | 7.352 | 26.224 | 45.608 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.354 | 17.526 | 99.88 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 90.386 | 7.304 | 2.31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| San Francisco | 5.924 | 65.124 | 23.06 | 0.0 | 5.892 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Green Bay | 3.69 | 23.922 | 67.896 | 4.492 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Seattle | 0.0 | 3.65 | 2.242 | 0.0 | 73.582 | 15.75 | 95.224 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.488 | 52.204 | 2.074 | 14.966 | 71.732 |
| NY Giants | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.004 | 13.334 | 13.984 | 21.738 | 51.06 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.97 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 33.97 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.446 | 21.218 | 23.664 |
| Chicago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.022 | 22.03 | 24.052 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.196 | 0.196 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.102 | 0.102 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Wed Dec 19 12:21:39 EST 2012
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 64.284 | 32.108 | 3.608 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 16.114 | 42.872 | 41.014 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 19.602 | 25.02 | 55.378 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 87.96 | 12.04 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 5.206 | 36.378 | 55.376 | 3.04 |
| Pittsburgh | 6.834 | 50.784 | 36.132 | 6.25 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.798 | 8.492 | 90.71 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 92.982 | 7.018 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 7.018 | 92.982 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 94.524 | 5.476 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.476 | 94.524 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 97.266 | 2.734 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 2.734 | 76.274 | 20.992 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.992 | 79.008 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 48.846 | 35.5 | 15.654 | 0.0 |
| Washington | 30.556 | 35.358 | 33.1 | 0.986 |
| Dallas | 20.598 | 29.142 | 50.26 | 0.0 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.986 | 99.014 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 86.278 | 10.734 | 2.988 | 0.0 |
| Chicago | 11.53 | 69.882 | 18.588 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 2.192 | 19.384 | 78.424 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 61.252 | 28.756 | 9.992 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 28.756 | 33.294 | 37.95 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 9.992 | 37.95 | 52.058 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 87.496 | 12.302 | 0.202 | 0.0 |
| Seattle | 12.37 | 77.43 | 10.2 | 0.0 |
| St Louis | 0.134 | 10.268 | 89.314 | 0.284 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.284 | 99.716 |
Generated: Wed Dec 12 01:10:07 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 69.83 | 17.998 | 5.154 | 0.0 | 7.018 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| New England | 20.52 | 30.164 | 38.144 | 11.172 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Denver | 8.464 | 43.308 | 38.734 | 9.494 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Indianapolis | 0.878 | 2.772 | 3.006 | 0.362 | 78.048 | 12.7 | 97.766 |
| Baltimore | 0.308 | 5.758 | 14.962 | 66.932 | 2.442 | 9.598 | 100.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.834 | 5.884 | 40.942 | 53.66 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.206 | 5.24 | 29.142 | 39.588 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.368 | 3.818 | 5.186 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.086 | 1.086 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.054 | 1.054 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.034 | 1.034 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.626 | 0.626 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 80.506 | 12.76 | 5.168 | 1.566 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| San Francisco | 12.31 | 54.352 | 18.664 | 2.17 | 10.164 | 1.944 | 99.604 |
| Green Bay | 5.962 | 18.26 | 42.636 | 19.42 | 2.556 | 5.672 | 94.506 |
| NY Giants | 0.73 | 5.206 | 17.448 | 25.462 | 12.316 | 13.95 | 75.112 |
| Seattle | 0.414 | 7.658 | 3.608 | 0.69 | 49.546 | 20.06 | 81.976 |
| Chicago | 0.078 | 1.71 | 6.904 | 2.838 | 16.866 | 30.26 | 58.656 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.052 | 3.876 | 26.628 | 3.818 | 12.45 | 46.824 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.002 | 1.148 | 19.448 | 0.65 | 4.424 | 25.672 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.506 | 1.686 | 1.032 | 5.19 | 8.414 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.042 | 0.092 | 3.018 | 5.346 | 8.498 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.034 | 0.68 | 0.714 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.024 | 0.024 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Wed Dec 12 01:10:07 EST 2012
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 45.956 | 35.908 | 18.136 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 26.752 | 36.808 | 36.44 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 27.292 | 27.284 | 45.424 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 75.058 | 22.092 | 2.85 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 12.314 | 35.182 | 51.614 | 0.89 |
| Pittsburgh | 12.628 | 42.608 | 42.494 | 2.27 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.118 | 3.042 | 96.84 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 97.026 | 2.974 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 2.974 | 96.344 | 0.682 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.682 | 89.864 | 9.454 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.454 | 90.546 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 82.026 | 17.636 | 0.338 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 17.416 | 63.462 | 19.122 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.558 | 18.902 | 80.54 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 54.648 | 32.796 | 12.462 | 0.094 |
| Washington | 30.482 | 39.022 | 29.812 | 0.684 |
| Dallas | 14.87 | 28.124 | 56.884 | 0.122 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.058 | 0.842 | 99.1 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 67.378 | 27.954 | 4.668 | 0.0 |
| Chicago | 30.582 | 59.418 | 9.456 | 0.544 |
| Minnesota | 2.04 | 12.454 | 77.92 | 7.586 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.174 | 7.956 | 91.87 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 71.084 | 26.474 | 2.442 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 26.56 | 42.328 | 31.112 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 2.356 | 31.198 | 66.446 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 85.582 | 13.968 | 0.45 | 0.0 |
| Seattle | 14.082 | 76.162 | 9.27 | 0.486 |
| St Louis | 0.336 | 9.634 | 85.168 | 4.862 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.236 | 5.112 | 94.652 |
Generated: Wed Dec 05 02:27:07 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 84.994 | 9.726 | 2.284 | 0.022 | 2.974 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| New England | 10.058 | 23.218 | 36.842 | 29.882 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Denver | 3.954 | 52.852 | 30.25 | 12.944 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Baltimore | 0.432 | 12.97 | 26.65 | 35.006 | 12.29 | 10.894 | 98.242 |
| Indianapolis | 0.562 | 1.184 | 0.996 | 0.232 | 54.944 | 25.492 | 83.41 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.032 | 1.692 | 10.59 | 12.854 | 26.318 | 51.486 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.018 | 1.286 | 11.324 | 15.834 | 30.712 | 59.174 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.652 | 2.73 | 3.382 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.232 | 1.616 | 1.848 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.188 | 1.596 | 1.784 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.008 | 0.236 | 0.244 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.096 | 0.1 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 87.682 | 8.762 | 2.96 | 0.596 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| San Francisco | 6.804 | 52.29 | 23.23 | 3.258 | 8.71 | 4.304 | 98.596 |
| Green Bay | 3.008 | 16.818 | 32.624 | 14.928 | 9.438 | 12.288 | 89.104 |
| Chicago | 1.718 | 9.226 | 14.522 | 5.116 | 25.032 | 23.236 | 78.85 |
| NY Giants | 0.484 | 5.028 | 17.342 | 31.794 | 8.262 | 11.378 | 74.288 |
| Seattle | 0.304 | 7.706 | 4.534 | 1.538 | 39.654 | 20.994 | 74.73 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.152 | 3.714 | 26.616 | 3.558 | 8.972 | 43.012 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.436 | 14.43 | 0.542 | 3.306 | 18.718 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.494 | 1.536 | 0.828 | 3.462 | 6.33 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.144 | 0.188 | 1.834 | 4.29 | 6.46 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.91 | 6.634 | 8.544 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.226 | 1.026 | 1.252 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.08 | 0.084 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.03 | 0.032 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Wed Dec 05 02:27:07 EST 2012
Edit: I had an error in the week 11 NO Oakland game. It is now corrected. Sorry for the error.
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 95.064 | 4.826 | 0.11 | 0.0 |
| Miami | 4.838 | 40.784 | 31.606 | 22.772 |
| NY Jets | 0.032 | 29.804 | 40.84 | 29.324 |
| Buffalo | 0.066 | 24.586 | 27.444 | 47.904 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 91.848 | 7.538 | 0.614 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 3.704 | 46.152 | 48.864 | 1.28 |
| Pittsburgh | 4.448 | 46.028 | 46.218 | 3.306 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.282 | 4.304 | 95.414 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 98.15 | 1.85 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 1.85 | 91.584 | 6.56 | 0.006 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 6.548 | 82.25 | 11.202 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.018 | 11.19 | 88.792 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 78.884 | 21.018 | 0.098 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 21.048 | 73.606 | 5.346 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.068 | 5.376 | 94.556 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 72.054 | 21.504 | 6.292 | 0.15 |
| Washington | 18.78 | 45.492 | 31.838 | 3.89 |
| Dallas | 9.064 | 31.908 | 53.58 | 5.448 |
| Philadelphia | 0.102 | 1.096 | 8.29 | 90.512 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 48.018 | 42.642 | 8.296 | 1.044 |
| Green Bay | 46.428 | 37.44 | 14.462 | 1.67 |
| Minnesota | 5.554 | 18.616 | 60.484 | 15.346 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 1.302 | 16.758 | 81.94 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 99.276 | 0.72 | 0.004 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.692 | 68.936 | 26.212 | 4.16 |
| New Orleans | 0.032 | 25.854 | 35.326 | 38.788 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 4.49 | 38.458 | 57.052 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 96.234 | 3.68 | 0.086 | 0.0 |
| Seattle | 3.652 | 84.432 | 9.798 | 2.118 |
| St Louis | 0.114 | 9.494 | 69.736 | 20.656 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 2.394 | 20.38 | 77.226 |
Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 82.098 | 10.934 | 4.35 | 0.768 | 1.836 | 0.014 | 100.0 |
| Denver | 7.232 | 50.29 | 26.254 | 16.224 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| New England | 7.036 | 14.374 | 25.63 | 48.024 | 1.742 | 1.736 | 98.542 |
| Baltimore | 3.446 | 23.85 | 40.902 | 23.65 | 5.93 | 1.99 | 99.768 |
| Indianapolis | 0.188 | 0.512 | 0.642 | 0.508 | 46.138 | 26.678 | 74.666 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.016 | 1.112 | 2.576 | 20.176 | 24.474 | 48.354 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.024 | 0.97 | 3.454 | 17.538 | 23.784 | 45.77 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.14 | 4.698 | 1.92 | 6.81 | 13.568 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.032 | 1.522 | 4.448 | 6.002 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.818 | 4.492 | 6.31 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.066 | 0.596 | 2.76 | 3.422 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.74 | 2.508 | 3.248 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.028 | 0.166 | 0.194 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.016 | 0.138 | 0.154 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 66.04 | 21.01 | 9.062 | 3.164 | 0.342 | 0.292 | 99.91 |
| San Francisco | 25.342 | 49.92 | 17.066 | 3.906 | 2.31 | 1.002 | 99.546 |
| Chicago | 4.814 | 12.2 | 21.79 | 9.214 | 25.736 | 13.364 | 87.118 |
| NY Giants | 2.074 | 7.616 | 24.266 | 38.098 | 5.912 | 7.626 | 85.592 |
| Green Bay | 1.546 | 7.282 | 22.274 | 15.326 | 19.662 | 14.046 | 80.136 |
| Seattle | 0.166 | 1.672 | 1.23 | 0.584 | 31.02 | 22.096 | 56.768 |
| Minnesota | 0.008 | 0.176 | 1.664 | 3.706 | 3.876 | 7.364 | 16.794 |
| Washington | 0.002 | 0.062 | 2.114 | 16.602 | 3.156 | 9.88 | 31.816 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.008 | 0.06 | 0.266 | 0.358 | 4.908 | 11.986 | 17.586 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.212 | 8.852 | 0.954 | 4.61 | 14.628 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.022 | 0.008 | 0.936 | 2.958 | 3.926 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.034 | 0.08 | 0.684 | 2.568 | 3.366 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.102 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.102 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.482 | 2.06 | 2.542 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.022 | 0.128 | 0.15 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 91.874 | 6.114 | 1.78 | 0.232 |
| NY Jets | 3.634 | 47.61 | 32.11 | 16.646 |
| Buffalo | 1.148 | 29.298 | 32.228 | 37.326 |
| Miami | 3.344 | 16.978 | 33.882 | 45.796 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 80.232 | 16.908 | 2.86 | 0.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 15.798 | 54.984 | 27.696 | 1.522 |
| Cincinnati | 3.97 | 27.814 | 66.146 | 2.07 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.294 | 3.298 | 96.408 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 98.114 | 1.87 | 0.016 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 1.856 | 80.756 | 17.344 | 0.044 |
| Tennessee | 0.03 | 17.292 | 77.002 | 5.676 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.082 | 5.638 | 94.28 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 99.946 | 0.054 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.024 | 70.354 | 29.528 | 0.094 |
| Oakland | 0.03 | 29.564 | 68.454 | 1.952 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.028 | 2.018 | 97.954 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 55.13 | 32.6 | 10.882 | 1.388 |
| Dallas | 31.556 | 40.42 | 24.082 | 3.942 |
| Washington | 12.466 | 23.982 | 47.316 | 16.236 |
| Philadelphia | 0.848 | 2.998 | 17.72 | 78.434 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 60.648 | 27.232 | 10.116 | 2.004 |
| Chicago | 27.426 | 46.028 | 20.188 | 6.358 |
| Minnesota | 11.694 | 23.472 | 48.45 | 16.384 |
| Detroit | 0.232 | 3.268 | 21.246 | 75.254 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 94.304 | 5.642 | 0.054 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 5.64 | 79.778 | 13.41 | 1.172 |
| New Orleans | 0.056 | 12.942 | 43.41 | 43.592 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 1.638 | 43.126 | 55.236 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 84.592 | 15.14 | 0.264 | 0.004 |
| Seattle | 15.266 | 78.514 | 5.566 | 0.654 |
| Arizona | 0.054 | 3.936 | 46.922 | 49.088 |
| St Louis | 0.088 | 2.41 | 47.248 | 50.254 |
Generated: Tue Nov 20 19:44:18 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 77.796 | 14.028 | 5.168 | 1.122 | 1.754 | 0.12 | 99.988 |
| Denver | 13.156 | 54.442 | 21.886 | 10.462 | 0.008 | 0.02 | 99.974 |
| New England | 5.8 | 12.002 | 23.664 | 50.408 | 1.384 | 2.244 | 95.502 |
| Baltimore | 2.984 | 18.146 | 40.136 | 18.966 | 11.988 | 4.908 | 97.128 |
| Indianapolis | 0.204 | 0.504 | 0.638 | 0.51 | 25.588 | 21.126 | 48.57 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.058 | 0.8 | 6.568 | 8.372 | 27.154 | 19.762 | 62.714 |
| Cincinnati | 0.002 | 0.062 | 1.474 | 2.432 | 12.07 | 15.684 | 31.724 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.176 | 3.448 | 4.432 | 9.718 | 17.784 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.176 | 3.168 | 0.744 | 2.266 | 6.354 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.09 | 1.058 | 3.476 | 6.56 | 11.184 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.014 | 0.004 | 7.49 | 9.422 | 16.936 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.008 | 0.022 | 2.712 | 5.11 | 7.852 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.028 | 1.188 | 2.964 | 4.182 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.012 | 0.096 | 0.108 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 54.204 | 22.866 | 13.956 | 3.278 | 2.268 | 1.85 | 98.422 |
| San Francisco | 28.154 | 36.03 | 17.742 | 2.666 | 9.662 | 3.624 | 97.878 |
| Green Bay | 8.684 | 16.35 | 26.922 | 8.692 | 11.386 | 11.994 | 84.028 |
| Chicago | 4.186 | 8.508 | 11.372 | 3.36 | 22.864 | 17.982 | 68.272 |
| Seattle | 2.234 | 7.47 | 4.388 | 1.174 | 35.006 | 20.14 | 70.412 |
| NY Giants | 1.934 | 6.09 | 14.782 | 32.324 | 4.664 | 8.028 | 67.822 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.364 | 1.264 | 2.346 | 1.666 | 6.932 | 14.654 | 27.226 |
| Minnesota | 0.218 | 1.1 | 5.204 | 5.172 | 3.522 | 8.958 | 24.174 |
| Dallas | 0.018 | 0.228 | 2.278 | 29.032 | 1.15 | 4.31 | 37.016 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.066 | 0.838 | 11.562 | 0.634 | 2.722 | 15.822 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.098 | 0.114 | 1.116 | 2.942 | 4.29 |
| New Orleans | 0.002 | 0.006 | 0.028 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 1.502 | 2.028 |
| Arizona | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.162 | 0.598 | 0.814 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.848 | 0.004 | 0.022 | 0.874 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.026 | 0.062 | 0.16 | 0.674 | 0.922 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Tue Nov 20 19:44:18 EST 2012
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 80.06 | 12.238 | 3.716 | 0.798 | 2.854 | 0.28 | 99.946 |
| Denver | 12.844 | 57.746 | 20.18 | 8.42 | 0.3 | 0.26 | 99.75 |
| New England | 3.628 | 9.768 | 20.84 | 49.054 | 1.982 | 3.464 | 88.736 |
| Baltimore | 2.036 | 14.054 | 30.908 | 11.13 | 19.88 | 11.754 | 89.762 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.546 | 4.728 | 20.182 | 14.5 | 20.198 | 17.49 | 77.644 |
| Indianapolis | 0.876 | 1.066 | 0.752 | 0.434 | 32.772 | 24.01 | 59.91 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.146 | 2.088 | 10.524 | 2.332 | 6.384 | 21.474 |
| San Diego | 0.006 | 0.2 | 0.292 | 0.238 | 8.704 | 11.448 | 20.888 |
| Cincinnati | 0.004 | 0.044 | 0.796 | 1.066 | 4.334 | 8.708 | 14.952 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.138 | 2.55 | 1.584 | 4.644 | 8.92 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.076 | 1.184 | 1.288 | 3.152 | 5.7 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.018 | 0.036 | 2.994 | 6.102 | 9.156 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.06 | 0.746 | 2.114 | 2.934 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.032 | 0.18 | 0.218 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 48.508 | 24.262 | 15.724 | 5.47 | 1.428 | 1.728 | 97.12 |
| San Francisco | 22.872 | 27.972 | 19.114 | 4.746 | 11.51 | 6.634 | 92.848 |
| Chicago | 13.132 | 14.292 | 12.788 | 4.18 | 19.656 | 12.872 | 76.92 |
| Green Bay | 7.106 | 11.366 | 15.602 | 6.008 | 14.214 | 14.288 | 68.584 |
| Seattle | 3.78 | 9.486 | 7.472 | 2.92 | 28.912 | 17.358 | 69.928 |
| NY Giants | 3.516 | 8.128 | 15.046 | 28.994 | 5.94 | 8.142 | 69.766 |
| Minnesota | 0.386 | 1.408 | 4.428 | 4.88 | 4.19 | 9.294 | 24.586 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.314 | 0.992 | 1.956 | 2.122 | 3.824 | 8.192 | 17.4 |
| Detroit | 0.252 | 0.904 | 2.038 | 1.23 | 5.016 | 7.308 | 16.748 |
| Dallas | 0.088 | 0.858 | 4.346 | 30.358 | 1.77 | 5.058 | 42.478 |
| New Orleans | 0.032 | 0.09 | 0.222 | 0.21 | 1.124 | 2.576 | 4.254 |
| St Louis | 0.008 | 0.138 | 0.666 | 0.452 | 1.472 | 3.34 | 6.076 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.048 | 0.392 | 4.844 | 0.246 | 1.114 | 6.644 |
| Arizona | 0.006 | 0.056 | 0.138 | 0.174 | 0.67 | 1.616 | 2.66 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.054 | 3.328 | 0.004 | 0.14 | 3.526 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.084 | 0.024 | 0.34 | 0.462 |
Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 83.29 | 12.918 | 3.412 | 0.38 |
| Miami | 12.758 | 41.202 | 28.528 | 17.512 |
| NY Jets | 2.692 | 27.094 | 40.114 | 30.1 |
| Buffalo | 1.26 | 18.786 | 27.946 | 52.008 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 58.128 | 36.598 | 5.254 | 0.02 |
| Pittsburgh | 39.956 | 47.978 | 11.004 | 1.062 |
| Cincinnati | 1.91 | 14.724 | 72.93 | 10.436 |
| Cleveland | 0.006 | 0.7 | 10.812 | 88.482 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 96.812 | 3.13 | 0.058 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 3.128 | 80.604 | 16.228 | 0.04 |
| Tennessee | 0.06 | 16.194 | 78.42 | 5.326 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.072 | 5.294 | 94.634 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 99.19 | 0.794 | 0.016 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.736 | 75.108 | 23.932 | 0.224 |
| Oakland | 0.074 | 23.99 | 70.858 | 5.078 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.108 | 5.194 | 94.698 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 55.684 | 34.276 | 8.554 | 1.486 |
| Dallas | 35.65 | 43.098 | 16.566 | 4.686 |
| Washington | 5.284 | 13.644 | 36.762 | 44.31 |
| Philadelphia | 3.382 | 8.982 | 38.118 | 49.518 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 44.392 | 34.436 | 14.376 | 6.796 |
| Green Bay | 40.082 | 32.022 | 17.172 | 10.724 |
| Minnesota | 11.102 | 22.004 | 41.038 | 25.856 |
| Detroit | 4.424 | 11.538 | 27.414 | 56.624 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 93.964 | 5.63 | 0.382 | 0.024 |
| Tampa Bay | 5.384 | 53.638 | 27.304 | 13.674 |
| New Orleans | 0.554 | 22.198 | 35.292 | 41.956 |
| Carolina | 0.098 | 18.534 | 37.022 | 44.346 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 74.704 | 22.366 | 2.674 | 0.256 |
| Seattle | 23.658 | 63.422 | 10.76 | 2.16 |
| St Louis | 1.264 | 8.484 | 52.126 | 38.126 |
| Arizona | 0.374 | 5.728 | 34.44 | 59.458 |
Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 63.066 | 24.714 | 9.862 | 2.358 |
| Miami | 28.648 | 40.452 | 21.914 | 8.986 |
| NY Jets | 5.796 | 24.028 | 44.362 | 25.814 |
| Buffalo | 2.49 | 10.806 | 23.862 | 62.842 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 44.328 | 48.048 | 7.518 | 0.106 |
| Pittsburgh | 53.822 | 38.606 | 6.822 | 0.75 |
| Cincinnati | 1.836 | 12.576 | 70.33 | 15.258 |
| Cleveland | 0.014 | 0.77 | 15.33 | 83.886 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 97.196 | 2.77 | 0.034 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 2.764 | 83.69 | 12.752 | 0.794 |
| Tennessee | 0.038 | 12.122 | 66.21 | 21.63 |
| Jacksonville | 0.002 | 1.418 | 21.004 | 77.576 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 97.938 | 1.924 | 0.138 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 1.602 | 60.374 | 37.742 | 0.282 |
| Oakland | 0.46 | 37.6 | 59.514 | 2.426 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.102 | 2.606 | 97.292 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 75.69 | 19.922 | 3.834 | 0.554 |
| Dallas | 16.928 | 47.516 | 24.402 | 11.154 |
| Philadelphia | 4.39 | 18.166 | 38.6 | 38.844 |
| Washington | 2.992 | 14.396 | 33.164 | 49.448 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 56.176 | 30.04 | 10.334 | 3.45 |
| Green Bay | 32.014 | 37.464 | 20.43 | 10.092 |
| Detroit | 7.234 | 18.652 | 35.278 | 38.836 |
| Minnesota | 4.576 | 13.844 | 33.958 | 47.622 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 98.174 | 1.674 | 0.136 | 0.016 |
| Tampa Bay | 1.508 | 47.066 | 35.412 | 16.014 |
| Carolina | 0.236 | 40.528 | 41.442 | 17.794 |
| New Orleans | 0.082 | 10.732 | 23.01 | 66.176 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 91.786 | 7.114 | 0.986 | 0.114 |
| Seattle | 6.5 | 69.144 | 18.69 | 5.666 |
| St Louis | 1.434 | 14.464 | 46.718 | 37.384 |
| Arizona | 0.28 | 9.278 | 33.606 | 56.836 |
Generated: Wed Nov 07 01:42:20 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 78.554 | 13.306 | 4.064 | 1.272 | 2.358 | 0.324 | 99.878 |
| Denver | 13.05 | 51.968 | 21.318 | 11.602 | 0.698 | 0.626 | 99.262 |
| New England | 4.14 | 10.476 | 18.824 | 29.626 | 7.248 | 8.52 | 78.834 |
| Baltimore | 1.628 | 10.576 | 19.294 | 12.83 | 19.158 | 12.34 | 75.826 |
| Pittsburgh | 1.67 | 9.03 | 22.65 | 20.472 | 14.414 | 11.364 | 79.6 |
| Indianapolis | 0.718 | 0.838 | 0.788 | 0.42 | 21.534 | 17.024 | 41.322 |
| Miami | 0.2 | 3.116 | 10.532 | 14.8 | 10.754 | 13.536 | 52.938 |
| San Diego | 0.034 | 0.43 | 0.478 | 0.66 | 9.45 | 10.548 | 21.6 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.078 | 0.878 | 4.84 | 4.218 | 8.334 | 18.348 |
| Cincinnati | 0.004 | 0.068 | 0.51 | 1.254 | 2.762 | 5.158 | 9.756 |
| Oakland | 0.002 | 0.072 | 0.168 | 0.218 | 4.95 | 6.928 | 12.338 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.042 | 0.48 | 1.968 | 1.642 | 3.362 | 7.494 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.012 | 0.026 | 0.778 | 1.732 | 2.548 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.016 | 0.112 | 0.142 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.112 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 52.38 | 24.94 | 14.428 | 6.426 | 0.446 | 0.538 | 99.158 |
| San Francisco | 24.618 | 33.002 | 21.17 | 12.996 | 3.058 | 2.05 | 96.894 |
| Chicago | 12.822 | 17.316 | 17.47 | 8.568 | 20.14 | 10.668 | 86.984 |
| NY Giants | 6.55 | 13.562 | 22.26 | 33.318 | 4.396 | 5.658 | 85.744 |
| Green Bay | 2.658 | 6.716 | 14.208 | 8.432 | 21.08 | 16.244 | 69.338 |
| Seattle | 0.458 | 2.184 | 2.426 | 1.432 | 26.078 | 20.134 | 52.712 |
| Detroit | 0.362 | 1.256 | 3.266 | 2.35 | 11.674 | 12.754 | 31.662 |
| Minnesota | 0.056 | 0.52 | 1.472 | 2.528 | 3.724 | 7.118 | 15.418 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.058 | 0.17 | 0.478 | 0.802 | 3.184 | 6.362 | 11.054 |
| Dallas | 0.022 | 0.206 | 1.834 | 14.866 | 2.732 | 7.024 | 26.684 |
| St Louis | 0.004 | 0.068 | 0.528 | 0.834 | 1.156 | 3.766 | 6.356 |
| Philadelphia | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.154 | 4.218 | 0.18 | 0.818 | 5.388 |
| Arizona | 0.004 | 0.012 | 0.086 | 0.178 | 0.768 | 1.986 | 3.034 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.162 | 2.816 | 0.506 | 1.618 | 5.116 |
| New Orleans | 0.002 | 0.02 | 0.024 | 0.036 | 0.29 | 0.784 | 1.156 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.034 | 0.2 | 0.588 | 2.478 | 3.302 |
Generated: Wed Nov 07 01:42:20 EST 2012
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 51.386 | 33.704 | 12.11 | 2.8 |
| Miami | 42.472 | 38.388 | 14.576 | 4.564 |
| NY Jets | 4.038 | 19.386 | 48.312 | 28.264 |
| Buffalo | 2.104 | 8.522 | 25.002 | 64.372 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Pittsburgh | 52.88 | 34.17 | 10.268 | 2.682 |
| Baltimore | 41.362 | 42.256 | 13.09 | 3.292 |
| Cincinnati | 4.884 | 18.812 | 53.746 | 22.558 |
| Cleveland | 0.874 | 4.762 | 22.896 | 71.468 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 97.83 | 2.082 | 0.086 | 0.002 |
| Indianapolis | 1.996 | 70.786 | 23.438 | 3.78 |
| Tennessee | 0.162 | 22.942 | 56.642 | 20.254 |
| Jacksonville | 0.012 | 4.19 | 19.834 | 75.964 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 95.044 | 4.522 | 0.434 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 3.476 | 58.048 | 37.076 | 1.4 |
| San Diego | 1.472 | 37.088 | 58.66 | 2.78 |
| Kansas City | 0.008 | 0.342 | 3.83 | 95.82 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 80.442 | 15.738 | 3.304 | 0.516 |
| Dallas | 11.276 | 44.42 | 28.608 | 15.696 |
| Philadelphia | 5.612 | 23.966 | 37.35 | 33.072 |
| Washington | 2.67 | 15.876 | 30.738 | 50.716 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 50.442 | 27.722 | 14.948 | 6.888 |
| Green Bay | 27.692 | 31.552 | 23.852 | 16.904 |
| Minnesota | 14.708 | 24.502 | 33.17 | 27.62 |
| Detroit | 7.158 | 16.224 | 28.03 | 48.588 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 98.652 | 1.262 | 0.082 | 0.004 |
| Tampa Bay | 1.1 | 49.964 | 36.234 | 12.702 |
| Carolina | 0.23 | 41.51 | 43.55 | 14.71 |
| New Orleans | 0.018 | 7.264 | 20.134 | 72.584 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 93.45 | 5.6 | 0.83 | 0.12 |
| Seattle | 4.692 | 61.754 | 23.502 | 10.052 |
| St Louis | 1.232 | 16.062 | 38.628 | 44.078 |
| Arizona | 0.626 | 16.584 | 37.04 | 45.75 |
Generated: Tue Oct 30 22:40:09 EDT 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 77.476 | 13.836 | 5.164 | 1.354 | 1.526 | 0.376 | 99.732 |
| Denver | 12.106 | 44.136 | 25.052 | 13.75 | 1.474 | 1.346 | 97.864 |
| New England | 5.382 | 12.618 | 18.55 | 14.836 | 15.378 | 11.548 | 78.312 |
| Miami | 2.14 | 12.876 | 17.974 | 9.482 | 20.122 | 12.418 | 75.012 |
| Baltimore | 1.144 | 7.944 | 13.1 | 19.174 | 11.138 | 10.408 | 62.908 |
| Pittsburgh | 1.064 | 5.806 | 14.682 | 31.328 | 6.812 | 8.918 | 68.61 |
| Indianapolis | 0.452 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 0.464 | 12.022 | 10.554 | 24.572 |
| Oakland | 0.122 | 0.964 | 1.288 | 1.102 | 12.352 | 14.446 | 30.274 |
| Cincinnati | 0.038 | 0.532 | 1.158 | 3.156 | 3.02 | 5.302 | 13.206 |
| Buffalo | 0.036 | 0.192 | 0.688 | 1.188 | 2.422 | 3.842 | 8.368 |
| San Diego | 0.022 | 0.318 | 0.516 | 0.616 | 6.156 | 8.36 | 15.988 |
| NY Jets | 0.012 | 0.184 | 1.154 | 2.688 | 5.516 | 8.672 | 18.226 |
| Tennessee | 0.006 | 0.038 | 0.064 | 0.054 | 1.832 | 2.972 | 4.966 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.076 | 0.792 | 0.16 | 0.602 | 1.636 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.07 | 0.222 | 0.304 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.008 | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.022 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 49.144 | 23.496 | 14.97 | 11.042 | 0.29 | 0.288 | 99.23 |
| San Francisco | 23.682 | 31.328 | 23.02 | 15.42 | 2.294 | 1.678 | 97.422 |
| NY Giants | 16.768 | 22.966 | 23.74 | 16.968 | 7.418 | 4.642 | 92.502 |
| Chicago | 7.648 | 12.322 | 15.774 | 14.698 | 16.278 | 11.228 | 77.948 |
| Green Bay | 1.46 | 3.9 | 9.18 | 13.152 | 13.926 | 13.474 | 55.092 |
| Minnesota | 0.4 | 1.77 | 4.202 | 8.336 | 8.068 | 10.52 | 33.296 |
| Dallas | 0.328 | 1.206 | 2.788 | 6.954 | 8.602 | 11.952 | 31.83 |
| Seattle | 0.28 | 1.396 | 1.708 | 1.308 | 22.67 | 15.87 | 43.232 |
| Detroit | 0.208 | 0.954 | 2.342 | 3.654 | 8.46 | 9.794 | 25.412 |
| Philadelphia | 0.032 | 0.234 | 0.872 | 4.474 | 2.208 | 4.096 | 11.916 |
| Washington | 0.008 | 0.17 | 0.668 | 1.824 | 3.068 | 4.544 | 10.282 |
| Arizona | 0.02 | 0.088 | 0.172 | 0.346 | 2.766 | 3.882 | 7.274 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.016 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.724 | 1.946 | 3.53 | 6.576 |
| St Louis | 0.006 | 0.08 | 0.274 | 0.872 | 1.674 | 3.382 | 6.288 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.016 | 0.214 | 0.282 | 0.982 | 1.494 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.014 | 0.05 | 0.138 | 0.206 |
Generated: Tue Oct 30 22:40:09 EDT 2012