2014 Playoffs Forecast after Week 12

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 79.484 16.874 3.642 0.0
Miami 18.428 61.318 20.17 0.084
Buffalo 2.088 21.806 76.096 0.01
NY Jets 0.0 0.002 0.092 99.906

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 33.764 23.304 21.474 21.458
Pittsburgh 26.508 24.188 26.97 22.334
Baltimore 20.666 29.74 25.206 24.388
Cleveland 19.062 22.768 26.35 31.82

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.85 6.15 0.0 0.0
Houston 6.15 85.004 8.088 0.758
Tennessee 0.0 7.718 70.902 21.38
Jacksonville 0.0 1.128 21.01 77.862

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 84.312 14.064 1.624 0.0
Kansas City 13.348 64.432 22.22 0.0
San Diego 2.34 21.504 76.156 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 51.614 48.232 0.154 0.0
Philadelphia 48.386 51.32 0.294 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.332 55.25 44.418
NY Giants 0.0 0.116 44.302 55.582

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 76.106 23.79 0.104 0.0
Detroit 23.814 66.414 9.566 0.206
Chicago 0.08 9.642 74.242 16.036
Minnesota 0.0 0.154 16.088 83.758

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 59.242 26.71 13.5 0.548
Atlanta 18.354 33.082 46.144 2.42
Carolina 22.27 39.014 33.07 5.646
Tampa Bay 0.134 1.194 7.286 91.386

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 61.048 28.312 10.586 0.054
San Francisco 18.346 38.922 41.594 1.138
Seattle 20.604 32.556 43.572 3.268
St Louis 0.002 0.21 4.248 95.54

Generated: Thu Nov 27 12:48:21 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 47.196 22.296 9.014 0.978 7.144 5.856 92.484
Denver 35.832 34.716 12.046 1.718 8.082 3.784 96.178
Cincinnati 5.426 9.29 13.97 5.078 9.872 10.266 53.902
Kansas City 4.758 4.53 3.264 0.796 29.98 15.866 59.194
Pittsburgh 2.254 6.744 14.63 2.88 8.614 11.4 46.522
Miami 0.994 8.754 6.614 2.066 14.726 18.166 51.32
Indianapolis 1.086 5.444 16.95 70.37 0.018 0.134 94.002
Cleveland 0.89 3.712 11.16 3.3 5.444 8.978 33.484
Baltimore 0.756 3.334 10.392 6.184 8.116 12.124 40.906
San Diego 0.632 0.686 0.686 0.336 5.888 8.384 16.612
Buffalo 0.172 0.42 0.702 0.794 1.602 3.78 7.47
Houston 0.004 0.074 0.572 5.5 0.514 1.262 7.926
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 41.782 14.658 4.608 0.0 23.216 8.774 93.038
Green Bay 25.69 34.124 16.268 0.024 7.588 9.32 93.014
Dallas 9.074 15.028 27.508 0.004 8.456 11.434 71.504
San Francisco 6.876 7.458 4.012 0.0 23.316 17.918 59.58
Seattle 6.988 5.964 7.65 0.002 17.486 17.596 55.686
Philadelphia 5.052 11.398 31.936 0.0 5.182 9.138 62.706
Detroit 4.534 11.358 7.922 0.0 13.636 23.324 60.774
New Orleans 0.0 0.002 0.024 59.216 0.0 0.0 59.242
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.27 0.0 0.0 22.27
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.004 18.35 0.0 0.0 18.354
Chicago 0.004 0.01 0.066 0.0 1.11 2.408 3.598
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.134 0.0 0.0 0.134
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.01 0.076 0.088
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.012
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Nov 27 12:48:21 EST 2014

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.