Archive for November, 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 12

Wednesday, November 27th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.344 2.466 0.19 0.0
NY Jets 0.47 37.698 33.94 27.892
Miami 1.586 39.964 29.384 29.066
Buffalo 0.6 19.872 36.486 43.042

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 92.982 6.06 0.872 0.086
Pittsburgh 5.126 57.326 20.654 16.894
Baltimore 1.712 21.092 42.426 34.77
Cleveland 0.18 15.522 36.048 48.25

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 97.22 2.75 0.03 0.0
Tennessee 2.756 88.634 7.908 0.702
Houston 0.02 6.71 56.552 36.718
Jacksonville 0.004 1.906 35.51 62.58

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 89.98 9.89 0.13 0.0
Kansas City 10.008 87.496 2.494 0.002
San Diego 0.012 2.592 85.92 11.476
Oakland 0.0 0.022 11.456 88.522

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 65.508 31.982 2.5 0.01
Dallas 34.154 59.686 6.03 0.13
NY Giants 0.332 7.194 71.646 20.828
Washington 0.006 1.138 19.824 79.032

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 47.344 35.304 17.116 0.236
Green Bay 35.756 30.682 33.486 0.076
Chicago 16.9 33.96 48.438 0.702
Minnesota 0.0 0.054 0.96 98.986

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.152 9.848 0.0 0.0
Carolina 9.848 90.15 0.002 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.002 61.824 38.174
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 38.174 61.826

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 97.57 2.284 0.146 0.0
San Francisco 2.14 69.118 27.622 1.12
Arizona 0.29 28.206 68.236 3.268
St Louis 0.0 0.392 3.996 95.612

Generated: Wed Nov 27 19:38:59 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 72.016 14.238 3.3 0.426 9.794 0.196 99.97
New England 13.67 32.83 33.058 17.786 0.224 1.436 99.004
Cincinnati 4.94 34.808 36.788 16.446 0.37 2.884 96.236
Kansas City 7.646 1.95 0.356 0.056 85.092 3.998 99.098
Indianapolis 1.722 15.558 23.378 56.562 0.01 0.372 97.602
Miami 0.002 0.282 0.858 0.444 1.408 21.784 24.778
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.096 1.134 3.896 0.646 19.068 24.84
Baltimore 0.0 0.154 0.506 1.052 0.184 7.714 9.61
Tennessee 0.002 0.062 0.43 2.262 0.216 11.092 14.064
NY Jets 0.0 0.016 0.106 0.348 0.066 8.584 9.12
San Diego 0.002 0.004 0.004 0.002 1.934 15.23 17.176
Buffalo 0.0 0.002 0.048 0.55 0.0 2.414 3.014
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.146 0.042 4.332 4.554
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.014 0.034
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.88 0.894
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.002 0.006

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 65.284 31.958 0.328 0.0 1.962 0.402 99.934
New Orleans 34.022 55.498 0.63 0.002 8.55 1.19 99.892
Carolina 0.62 8.984 0.242 0.002 51.172 25.406 86.426
Philadelphia 0.0 1.138 40.986 23.384 0.908 3.552 69.968
Detroit 0.0 0.092 23.454 23.798 0.194 1.598 49.136
San Francisco 0.06 1.98 0.094 0.006 20.122 44.68 66.942
Green Bay 0.0 0.012 15.162 20.582 0.07 0.948 36.774
Dallas 0.0 0.072 10.276 23.806 0.298 2.438 36.89
Chicago 0.0 0.002 8.754 8.144 0.096 0.774 17.77
Arizona 0.014 0.264 0.012 0.0 16.608 18.716 35.614
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.062 0.27 0.006 0.152 0.49
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.0 0.0 0.006
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.142 0.156
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 27 19:38:59 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 11

Thursday, November 21st, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 87.916 9.72 2.09 0.274
NY Jets 5.824 47.378 28.684 18.114
Miami 4.224 26.922 30.748 38.106
Buffalo 2.036 15.98 38.478 43.506

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 96.35 3.332 0.284 0.034
Cleveland 1.408 43.5 35.31 19.782
Pittsburgh 1.656 39.032 28.03 31.282
Baltimore 0.586 14.136 36.376 48.902

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 98.17 1.752 0.078 0.0
Tennessee 1.456 70.264 27.664 0.616
Houston 0.374 27.63 66.746 5.25
Jacksonville 0.0 0.354 5.512 94.134

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 87.214 12.764 0.022 0.0
Kansas City 12.786 86.422 0.786 0.006
San Diego 0.0 0.774 76.65 22.576
Oakland 0.0 0.04 22.542 77.418

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 74.438 21.83 3.688 0.044
Dallas 21.718 46.36 27.882 4.04
NY Giants 3.706 26.96 49.434 19.9
Washington 0.138 4.85 18.996 76.016

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 57.596 29.402 12.988 0.014
Green Bay 26.348 33.588 39.792 0.272
Chicago 16.056 36.992 46.752 0.2
Minnesota 0.0 0.018 0.468 99.514

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 88.582 11.418 0.0 0.0
Carolina 11.418 88.554 0.028 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.02 58.46 41.52
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.008 41.512 58.48

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.196 0.774 0.03 0.0
San Francisco 0.63 58.91 37.892 2.568
Arizona 0.174 39.586 56.666 3.574
St Louis 0.0 0.73 5.412 93.858

Generated: Wed Nov 20 23:45:37 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 80.896 5.0 1.202 0.116 12.662 0.118 99.994
Kansas City 11.708 0.902 0.162 0.014 85.02 1.858 99.664
Cincinnati 2.468 52.468 28.43 12.984 0.082 1.98 98.412
New England 3.404 17.256 32.842 34.414 0.278 5.824 94.018
Indianapolis 1.518 22.936 32.336 41.38 0.004 0.262 98.436
Miami 0.006 0.908 1.938 1.372 0.818 18.982 24.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.214 1.574 4.036 0.264 25.516 31.604
Cleveland 0.0 0.166 0.448 0.794 0.102 13.132 14.642
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.054 0.34 1.262 0.098 8.478 10.232
Tennessee 0.0 0.042 0.37 1.044 0.066 7.69 9.212
Baltimore 0.0 0.048 0.19 0.348 0.024 3.432 4.042
Buffalo 0.0 0.006 0.162 1.868 0.0 4.218 6.254
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.368 0.0 0.518 0.892
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.544 6.268 6.812
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.038 1.724 1.762
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 72.714 25.59 0.858 0.034 0.67 0.102 99.968
New Orleans 26.916 59.394 2.182 0.09 10.074 1.086 99.742
Carolina 0.264 9.636 1.424 0.094 47.182 23.638 82.238
Philadelphia 0.01 2.57 37.302 34.556 1.448 3.784 79.67
Detroit 0.048 1.876 33.552 22.12 3.478 7.356 68.43
Green Bay 0.0 0.078 11.162 15.108 0.99 5.45 32.788
Chicago 0.002 0.176 9.528 6.35 2.438 7.454 25.948
San Francisco 0.026 0.474 0.104 0.026 14.464 28.576 43.67
Dallas 0.0 0.074 3.198 18.446 0.738 3.334 25.79
Arizona 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.004 18.348 17.822 36.344
NY Giants 0.0 0.002 0.67 3.034 0.152 1.22 5.078
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.138 0.002 0.056 0.196
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.118 0.134
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.004
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 20 23:45:37 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 10

Thursday, November 14th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 84.118 14.326 1.458 0.098
NY Jets 12.734 59.258 20.612 7.396
Miami 2.316 17.396 39.786 40.502
Buffalo 0.832 9.02 38.144 52.004

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 91.932 6.872 1.066 0.13
Cleveland 5.59 48.274 29.426 16.71
Baltimore 1.258 18.054 40.454 40.234
Pittsburgh 1.22 26.8 29.054 42.926

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 84.36 13.6 2.028 0.012
Tennessee 13.008 54.808 31.27 0.914
Houston 2.622 31.06 61.03 5.288
Jacksonville 0.01 0.532 5.672 93.786

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 73.472 26.378 0.15 0.0
Kansas City 26.5 72.288 1.212 0.0
San Diego 0.028 1.326 87.472 11.174
Oakland 0.0 0.008 11.166 88.826

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 67.786 26.17 5.468 0.576
Dallas 27.596 46.202 22.41 3.792
NY Giants 3.484 20.774 46.986 28.756
Washington 1.134 6.854 25.136 66.876

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 61.092 31.722 7.182 0.004
Green Bay 32.162 39.75 27.894 0.194
Chicago 6.746 28.494 64.084 0.676
Minnesota 0.0 0.034 0.84 99.126

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 81.064 18.932 0.004 0.0
Carolina 18.936 80.868 0.194 0.002
Atlanta 0.0 0.196 81.198 18.606
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.004 18.604 81.392

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 96.322 3.592 0.086 0.0
San Francisco 3.556 79.766 15.798 0.88
Arizona 0.12 16.006 74.884 8.99
St Louis 0.002 0.636 9.232 90.13

Generated: Wed Nov 13 23:43:22 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 67.278 5.174 0.922 0.098 25.858 0.57 99.9
Kansas City 24.892 1.46 0.138 0.01 71.052 2.084 99.636
New England 4.716 25.452 31.738 22.212 0.524 8.274 92.916
Cincinnati 2.056 46.818 29.356 13.702 0.162 3.528 95.622
Indianapolis 1.014 16.778 25.036 41.532 0.076 2.806 87.242
NY Jets 0.018 1.746 5.458 5.512 0.758 29.916 43.408
Tennessee 0.01 0.848 3.278 8.872 0.092 8.176 21.276
Cleveland 0.002 0.952 1.89 2.746 0.078 11.46 17.128
Miami 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.716 0.22 9.604 12.14
Baltimore 0.0 0.196 0.378 0.684 0.028 3.912 5.198
San Diego 0.014 0.008 0.004 0.002 1.11 12.238 13.376
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.05 0.326 0.844 0.032 3.176 4.428
Houston 0.0 0.018 0.256 2.348 0.0 2.174 4.796
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.712 0.002 1.656 2.49
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.01
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.008 0.426 0.434

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 74.138 19.494 2.5 0.19 3.192 0.35 99.864
New Orleans 22.566 50.676 7.056 0.766 10.558 6.162 97.784
Carolina 0.812 13.364 4.164 0.596 34.414 22.616 75.966
Detroit 0.678 8.526 39.156 12.732 4.12 9.01 74.222
San Francisco 1.656 1.54 0.33 0.03 34.842 30.092 68.49
Philadelphia 0.034 3.644 20.708 43.4 0.968 3.05 71.804
Green Bay 0.088 2.162 19.274 10.638 2.816 9.106 44.084
Chicago 0.0 0.302 4.314 2.13 1.876 6.328 14.95
Dallas 0.008 0.212 2.1 25.276 0.304 1.914 29.814
Arizona 0.02 0.076 0.022 0.002 6.822 10.646 17.588
NY Giants 0.0 0.002 0.36 3.122 0.054 0.494 4.032
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.016 1.118 0.008 0.112 1.254
St Louis 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.112 0.138
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.008 0.01
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 13 23:43:22 EST 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9

Wednesday, November 6th, 2013

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 81.744 15.18 2.722 0.354
NY Jets 11.138 49.164 27.928 11.77
Miami 5.524 24.45 36.874 33.152
Buffalo 1.594 11.206 32.476 54.724

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 96.714 3.118 0.162 0.006
Cleveland 2.974 76.32 16.63 4.076
Baltimore 0.24 7.95 47.238 44.572
Pittsburgh 0.072 12.612 35.97 51.346

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 86.748 11.536 1.716 0.0
Tennessee 10.882 57.082 31.868 0.168
Houston 2.37 31.34 65.344 0.946
Jacksonville 0.0 0.042 1.072 98.886

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.46 43.694 1.836 0.01
Kansas City 45.236 53.228 1.534 0.002
San Diego 0.304 3.064 87.604 9.028
Oakland 0.0 0.014 9.026 90.96

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 53.044 32.46 12.198 2.298
Philadelphia 40.726 43.798 12.986 2.49
NY Giants 2.894 12.486 38.926 45.694
Washington 3.336 11.256 35.89 49.518

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 44.868 32.824 22.276 0.032
Detroit 36.48 37.736 25.742 0.042
Chicago 18.652 29.436 51.736 0.176
Minnesota 0.0 0.004 0.246 99.75

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 82.352 17.552 0.096 0.0
Carolina 17.626 79.938 2.43 0.006
Atlanta 0.022 2.506 91.552 5.92
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.004 5.922 94.074

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 81.626 18.232 0.142 0.0
San Francisco 18.334 78.952 2.672 0.042
Arizona 0.04 2.76 86.32 10.88
St Louis 0.0 0.056 10.866 89.078

Generated: Wed Nov 06 20:39:23 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 38.526 11.122 3.8 1.012 40.544 3.324 98.328
Kansas City 37.064 6.404 1.54 0.228 51.776 2.346 99.358
Cincinnati 13.82 48.026 23.218 11.65 0.144 1.354 98.212
Indianapolis 5.252 16.886 29.038 35.572 0.364 3.074 90.186
New England 5.1 14.226 30.87 31.548 0.836 7.398 89.978
Tennessee 0.064 1.122 3.642 6.054 0.906 16.154 27.942
Miami 0.054 0.924 2.3 2.246 1.332 13.678 20.534
San Diego 0.11 0.102 0.076 0.016 2.16 10.938 13.402
NY Jets 0.004 0.584 3.724 6.826 1.342 21.684 34.164
Cleveland 0.006 0.534 0.938 1.496 0.43 11.668 15.072
Houston 0.0 0.044 0.514 1.812 0.116 4.534 7.02
Buffalo 0.0 0.006 0.272 1.316 0.038 2.65 4.282
Baltimore 0.0 0.02 0.054 0.166 0.006 0.656 0.902
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.058 0.002 0.35 0.424
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.192 0.196
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 65.814 12.77 2.912 0.13 16.452 1.436 99.514
New Orleans 17.534 44.084 16.45 4.284 3.83 6.922 93.104
San Francisco 13.054 4.572 0.654 0.054 61.06 11.89 91.284
Green Bay 1.782 11.622 24.898 6.566 2.772 15.886 63.526
Detroit 0.826 9.716 21.06 4.878 4.45 17.9 58.83
Carolina 0.58 7.604 6.982 2.46 7.336 19.374 44.336
Dallas 0.196 3.314 7.24 42.294 0.19 2.126 55.36
Chicago 0.174 3.274 11.118 4.086 1.684 12.114 32.45
Philadelphia 0.036 2.996 8.414 29.28 0.844 5.614 47.184
Arizona 0.004 0.028 0.006 0.002 1.298 6.048 7.386
Washington 0.0 0.008 0.118 3.21 0.048 0.298 3.682
NY Giants 0.0 0.008 0.142 2.744 0.018 0.268 3.18
Atlanta 0.0 0.004 0.006 0.012 0.016 0.11 0.148
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.014 0.016
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 06 20:39:23 EST 2013