2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 81.744 15.18 2.722 0.354
NY Jets 11.138 49.164 27.928 11.77
Miami 5.524 24.45 36.874 33.152
Buffalo 1.594 11.206 32.476 54.724

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 96.714 3.118 0.162 0.006
Cleveland 2.974 76.32 16.63 4.076
Baltimore 0.24 7.95 47.238 44.572
Pittsburgh 0.072 12.612 35.97 51.346

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 86.748 11.536 1.716 0.0
Tennessee 10.882 57.082 31.868 0.168
Houston 2.37 31.34 65.344 0.946
Jacksonville 0.0 0.042 1.072 98.886

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.46 43.694 1.836 0.01
Kansas City 45.236 53.228 1.534 0.002
San Diego 0.304 3.064 87.604 9.028
Oakland 0.0 0.014 9.026 90.96

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 53.044 32.46 12.198 2.298
Philadelphia 40.726 43.798 12.986 2.49
NY Giants 2.894 12.486 38.926 45.694
Washington 3.336 11.256 35.89 49.518

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 44.868 32.824 22.276 0.032
Detroit 36.48 37.736 25.742 0.042
Chicago 18.652 29.436 51.736 0.176
Minnesota 0.0 0.004 0.246 99.75

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 82.352 17.552 0.096 0.0
Carolina 17.626 79.938 2.43 0.006
Atlanta 0.022 2.506 91.552 5.92
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.004 5.922 94.074

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 81.626 18.232 0.142 0.0
San Francisco 18.334 78.952 2.672 0.042
Arizona 0.04 2.76 86.32 10.88
St Louis 0.0 0.056 10.866 89.078

Generated: Wed Nov 06 20:39:23 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 38.526 11.122 3.8 1.012 40.544 3.324 98.328
Kansas City 37.064 6.404 1.54 0.228 51.776 2.346 99.358
Cincinnati 13.82 48.026 23.218 11.65 0.144 1.354 98.212
Indianapolis 5.252 16.886 29.038 35.572 0.364 3.074 90.186
New England 5.1 14.226 30.87 31.548 0.836 7.398 89.978
Tennessee 0.064 1.122 3.642 6.054 0.906 16.154 27.942
Miami 0.054 0.924 2.3 2.246 1.332 13.678 20.534
San Diego 0.11 0.102 0.076 0.016 2.16 10.938 13.402
NY Jets 0.004 0.584 3.724 6.826 1.342 21.684 34.164
Cleveland 0.006 0.534 0.938 1.496 0.43 11.668 15.072
Houston 0.0 0.044 0.514 1.812 0.116 4.534 7.02
Buffalo 0.0 0.006 0.272 1.316 0.038 2.65 4.282
Baltimore 0.0 0.02 0.054 0.166 0.006 0.656 0.902
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.058 0.002 0.35 0.424
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.192 0.196
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 65.814 12.77 2.912 0.13 16.452 1.436 99.514
New Orleans 17.534 44.084 16.45 4.284 3.83 6.922 93.104
San Francisco 13.054 4.572 0.654 0.054 61.06 11.89 91.284
Green Bay 1.782 11.622 24.898 6.566 2.772 15.886 63.526
Detroit 0.826 9.716 21.06 4.878 4.45 17.9 58.83
Carolina 0.58 7.604 6.982 2.46 7.336 19.374 44.336
Dallas 0.196 3.314 7.24 42.294 0.19 2.126 55.36
Chicago 0.174 3.274 11.118 4.086 1.684 12.114 32.45
Philadelphia 0.036 2.996 8.414 29.28 0.844 5.614 47.184
Arizona 0.004 0.028 0.006 0.002 1.298 6.048 7.386
Washington 0.0 0.008 0.118 3.21 0.048 0.298 3.682
NY Giants 0.0 0.008 0.142 2.744 0.018 0.268 3.18
Atlanta 0.0 0.004 0.006 0.012 0.016 0.11 0.148
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.014 0.016
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 06 20:39:23 EST 2013

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