Archive for December, 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 16

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 52.938 47.062
Miami 0.0 0.0 47.062 52.938

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 60.844 39.156 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 39.156 60.844 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 78.548 21.452 0.0 0.0
Oakland 21.452 32.812 45.736 0.0
San Diego 0.0 45.736 32.812 21.452
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 21.452 78.548

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 0.0 78.988 21.012 0.0
NY Giants 63.79 7.648 28.562 0.0
Dallas 36.21 13.364 50.426 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 61.192 38.808 0.0
Seattle 0.0 38.808 61.192 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 28 14:55:49 EST 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 78.074 21.926 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 12.346 48.498 0.0 0.0 39.156 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 9.58 29.576 0.0 0.0 60.844 0.0 100.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.548 0.0 0.0 78.548
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.452 0.0 14.818 36.27
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.266 70.266
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.454 10.454
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.462 4.462
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 0.0 69.808 30.192 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 30.192 69.808 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.79 0.0 0.0 63.79
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.21 0.0 0.0 36.21
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.25 45.75 100.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.75 54.25 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 28 14:55:48 EST 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 15

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 68.996 31.004
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 31.004 68.996

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 60.192 39.808 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 39.808 60.192 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 76.506 19.624 3.87 0.0
Oakland 11.534 36.964 33.132 18.37
San Diego 4.292 37.67 35.176 22.862
Kansas City 7.668 5.742 27.822 58.768

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 56.208 24.834 18.958 0.0
NY Giants 35.204 39.558 23.648 1.59
Philadelphia 8.588 31.888 45.084 14.44
Washington 0.0 3.72 12.31 83.97

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 95.99 4.01 0.0
Chicago 0.0 4.01 95.99 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.31 4.69 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 4.69 95.31 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 75.654 24.346
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 24.346 75.654

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 59.036 40.964 0.0
Arizona 0.0 40.964 59.036 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 21 16:01:48 EST 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 62.772 12.92 24.308 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Houston 26.988 28.388 44.114 0.51 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 6.12 41.934 12.078 0.06 39.808 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 4.12 16.758 18.93 0.0 60.192 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.57 75.936 0.0 2.732 79.238
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.534 0.0 11.264 22.798
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.668 0.0 0.0 7.668
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.292 0.0 6.826 11.118
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.93 37.93
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.85 37.85
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.398 3.398
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 97.662 2.338 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 2.338 51.296 46.366 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 46.366 48.944 0.0 4.69 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.208 0.338 1.174 57.72
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 4.69 0.0 72.244 18.456 95.39
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.204 0.0 0.0 35.204
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.588 0.0 0.0 8.588
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.926 65.214 86.14
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.644 6.038 6.682
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.696 5.196 5.892
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.462 3.922 4.384
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 21 16:01:48 EST 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 14

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.88 0.12 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.12 99.88 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 74.702 25.298
Miami 0.0 0.0 25.298 74.702

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 51.53 48.47 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 48.47 51.53 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 98.48 1.52 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 1.52 98.48 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 79.272 20.166 0.562 0.0
Oakland 19.252 56.258 20.942 3.548
San Diego 0.882 21.73 60.216 17.172
Kansas City 0.594 1.846 18.28 79.28

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 63.23 29.602 6.964 0.204
Dallas 34.114 50.08 15.806 0.0
Philadelphia 2.656 19.5 70.86 6.984
Washington 0.0 0.818 6.37 92.812

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 85.196 14.804 0.0
Chicago 0.0 14.804 85.196 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 96.132 3.868 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 3.868 96.132 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 67.978 32.022
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 32.022 67.978

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 56.01 43.99 0.0
Seattle 0.0 43.99 56.01 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Thu Dec 15 23:55:01 EST 2011


Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 31.09 40.224 28.404 0.282 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 26.722 25.838 43.656 3.664 0.0 0.102 99.982
Baltimore 27.472 12.91 7.986 0.102 50.85 0.632 99.952
Pittsburgh 14.714 20.832 15.972 0.012 48.45 0.02 100.0
Denver 0.0020 0.196 3.838 75.236 0.014 3.912 83.198
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.046 19.206 0.148 14.334 33.734
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.098 0.022 0.328 41.302 41.75
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.882 0.0 2.21 3.092
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.594 0.0 0.0 0.594
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.21 17.748 17.958
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.74 19.74
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 99.876 0.124 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 61.01 35.044 0.078 3.734 0.134 100.0
San Francisco 0.124 38.382 59.258 2.236 0.0 0.0 100.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.478 3.39 0.0 66.646 17.206 87.72
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.23 0.018 0.552 63.8
Dallas 0.0 0.0060 2.308 31.8 0.956 2.632 37.702
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.656 0.0020 0.13 2.788
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.87 56.314 76.184
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.232 13.906 21.138
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.856 5.866 6.722
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.686 3.26 3.946
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 15 23:55:01 EST 2011

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 13

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.29 0.672 0.038 0.0
NY Jets 0.648 95.268 3.908 0.176
Buffalo 0.062 1.818 66.352 31.768
Miami 0.0 2.242 29.702 68.056

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 48.412 51.464 0.124 0.0
Baltimore 51.58 47.538 0.882 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0080 0.998 98.982 0.012
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.012 99.988

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.876 0.124 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.124 99.07 0.806 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.806 98.562 0.632
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.632 99.368

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.914 39.77 4.764 0.552
Oakland 41.45 44.878 10.69 2.982
San Diego 1.688 10.212 55.892 32.208
Kansas City 1.948 5.14 28.654 64.258

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 63.88 31.464 4.644 0.012
NY Giants 34.93 51.042 11.652 2.376
Philadelphia 1.134 13.728 64.818 20.32
Washington 0.056 3.766 18.886 77.292

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 63.658 36.342 0.0
Chicago 0.0 36.342 63.658 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 97.556 2.444 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 2.444 96.282 1.232 0.042
Carolina 0.0 0.408 60.16 39.432
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.866 38.608 60.526

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 55.334 44.508 0.158
Arizona 0.0 44.666 55.312 0.022
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.18 99.82

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 35.398 36.912 26.784 0.782 0.0 0.05 99.926
Baltimore 27.662 14.524 9.276 0.118 45.456 2.416 99.452
New England 20.63 26.574 47.884 4.202 0.032 0.362 99.684
Pittsburgh 16.298 21.642 10.444 0.028 51.234 0.302 99.948
Denver 0.012 0.31 4.09 50.502 0.09 5.512 60.516
Oakland 0.0 0.024 0.902 40.524 0.226 8.892 50.568
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.476 0.172 0.578 28.356 29.582
Tennessee 0.0 0.012 0.112 0.0 1.44 20.808 22.372
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.948 0.0 0.034 1.982
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.688 0.0080 0.75 2.446
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0020 0.0060 0.0 0.936 32.3 33.244
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.026 0.036 0.0 0.206 0.268
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.012
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 97.786 2.168 0.046 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 2.15 66.23 28.742 2.878 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.064 30.91 63.566 3.016 1.982 0.356 99.894
Dallas 0.0 0.61 5.52 57.75 1.276 3.388 68.544
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.012 34.918 0.1 1.246 36.276
Atlanta 0.0 0.082 2.114 0.248 39.4 26.544 68.388
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.448 36.45 64.898
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.31 27.21 54.52
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.134 0.01 0.15 1.294
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.906 2.596 3.502
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.556 1.976 2.532
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.056 0.01 0.074 0.14
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.012
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011