2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 13

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.29 0.672 0.038 0.0
NY Jets 0.648 95.268 3.908 0.176
Buffalo 0.062 1.818 66.352 31.768
Miami 0.0 2.242 29.702 68.056

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 48.412 51.464 0.124 0.0
Baltimore 51.58 47.538 0.882 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0080 0.998 98.982 0.012
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.012 99.988

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.876 0.124 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.124 99.07 0.806 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.806 98.562 0.632
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.632 99.368

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.914 39.77 4.764 0.552
Oakland 41.45 44.878 10.69 2.982
San Diego 1.688 10.212 55.892 32.208
Kansas City 1.948 5.14 28.654 64.258

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 63.88 31.464 4.644 0.012
NY Giants 34.93 51.042 11.652 2.376
Philadelphia 1.134 13.728 64.818 20.32
Washington 0.056 3.766 18.886 77.292

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 63.658 36.342 0.0
Chicago 0.0 36.342 63.658 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 97.556 2.444 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 2.444 96.282 1.232 0.042
Carolina 0.0 0.408 60.16 39.432
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.866 38.608 60.526

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 55.334 44.508 0.158
Arizona 0.0 44.666 55.312 0.022
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.18 99.82

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 35.398 36.912 26.784 0.782 0.0 0.05 99.926
Baltimore 27.662 14.524 9.276 0.118 45.456 2.416 99.452
New England 20.63 26.574 47.884 4.202 0.032 0.362 99.684
Pittsburgh 16.298 21.642 10.444 0.028 51.234 0.302 99.948
Denver 0.012 0.31 4.09 50.502 0.09 5.512 60.516
Oakland 0.0 0.024 0.902 40.524 0.226 8.892 50.568
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.476 0.172 0.578 28.356 29.582
Tennessee 0.0 0.012 0.112 0.0 1.44 20.808 22.372
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.948 0.0 0.034 1.982
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.688 0.0080 0.75 2.446
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0020 0.0060 0.0 0.936 32.3 33.244
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.026 0.036 0.0 0.206 0.268
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.012
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 97.786 2.168 0.046 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 2.15 66.23 28.742 2.878 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.064 30.91 63.566 3.016 1.982 0.356 99.894
Dallas 0.0 0.61 5.52 57.75 1.276 3.388 68.544
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.012 34.918 0.1 1.246 36.276
Atlanta 0.0 0.082 2.114 0.248 39.4 26.544 68.388
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.448 36.45 64.898
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.31 27.21 54.52
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.134 0.01 0.15 1.294
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.906 2.596 3.502
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.556 1.976 2.532
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.056 0.01 0.074 0.14
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.012
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

2 Responses to “2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 13”

  1. Anon says:

    Do these numbers incorporate full tie breaker rules?

  2. admin says:

    Yes, they incorporate rules through strength of schedule, for Division and Wildcard, and for both two and multi-way ties. The tie-breaking procedures have been tested against actual division finishes over many seasons, so should handle all situations accurately.

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