NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	99.29	0.672	0.038	0.0
NY Jets	0.648	95.268	3.908	0.176
Buffalo	0.062	1.818	66.352	31.768
Miami	0.0	2.242	29.702	68.056

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	48.412	51.464	0.124	0.0
Baltimore	51.58	47.538	0.882	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0080	0.998	98.982	0.012
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.012	99.988

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	99.876	0.124	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.124	99.07	0.806	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.806	98.562	0.632
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.632	99.368

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	54.914	39.77	4.764	0.552
Oakland	41.45	44.878	10.69	2.982
San Diego	1.688	10.212	55.892	32.208
Kansas City	1.948	5.14	28.654	64.258

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	63.88	31.464	4.644	0.012
NY Giants	34.93	51.042	11.652	2.376
Philadelphia	1.134	13.728	64.818	20.32
Washington	0.056	3.766	18.886	77.292

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	63.658	36.342	0.0
Chicago	0.0	36.342	63.658	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	97.556	2.444	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	2.444	96.282	1.232	0.042
Carolina	0.0	0.408	60.16	39.432
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.866	38.608	60.526

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.0	55.334	44.508	0.158
Arizona	0.0	44.666	55.312	0.022
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.18	99.82

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	35.398	36.912	26.784	0.782	0.0	0.05	99.926
Baltimore	27.662	14.524	9.276	0.118	45.456	2.416	99.452
New England	20.63	26.574	47.884	4.202	0.032	0.362	99.684
Pittsburgh	16.298	21.642	10.444	0.028	51.234	0.302	99.948
Denver	0.012	0.31	4.09	50.502	0.09	5.512	60.516
Oakland	0.0	0.024	0.902	40.524	0.226	8.892	50.568
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.476	0.172	0.578	28.356	29.582
Tennessee	0.0	0.012	0.112	0.0	1.44	20.808	22.372
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.948	0.0	0.034	1.982
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.688	0.0080	0.75	2.446
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0020	0.0060	0.0	0.936	32.3	33.244
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.026	0.036	0.0	0.206	0.268
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.012	0.012
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Green Bay	97.786	2.168	0.046	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Francisco	2.15	66.23	28.742	2.878	0.0	0.0	100.0
New Orleans	0.064	30.91	63.566	3.016	1.982	0.356	99.894
Dallas	0.0	0.61	5.52	57.75	1.276	3.388	68.544
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.012	34.918	0.1	1.246	36.276
Atlanta	0.0	0.082	2.114	0.248	39.4	26.544	68.388
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	28.448	36.45	64.898
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	27.31	27.21	54.52
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.134	0.01	0.15	1.294
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.906	2.596	3.502
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.556	1.976	2.532
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.056	0.01	0.074	0.14
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.01	0.012
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

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