Archive for November, 2014

2014 Playoffs Forecast after Week 12

Thursday, November 27th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 79.484 16.874 3.642 0.0
Miami 18.428 61.318 20.17 0.084
Buffalo 2.088 21.806 76.096 0.01
NY Jets 0.0 0.002 0.092 99.906

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 33.764 23.304 21.474 21.458
Pittsburgh 26.508 24.188 26.97 22.334
Baltimore 20.666 29.74 25.206 24.388
Cleveland 19.062 22.768 26.35 31.82

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.85 6.15 0.0 0.0
Houston 6.15 85.004 8.088 0.758
Tennessee 0.0 7.718 70.902 21.38
Jacksonville 0.0 1.128 21.01 77.862

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 84.312 14.064 1.624 0.0
Kansas City 13.348 64.432 22.22 0.0
San Diego 2.34 21.504 76.156 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 51.614 48.232 0.154 0.0
Philadelphia 48.386 51.32 0.294 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.332 55.25 44.418
NY Giants 0.0 0.116 44.302 55.582

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 76.106 23.79 0.104 0.0
Detroit 23.814 66.414 9.566 0.206
Chicago 0.08 9.642 74.242 16.036
Minnesota 0.0 0.154 16.088 83.758

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 59.242 26.71 13.5 0.548
Atlanta 18.354 33.082 46.144 2.42
Carolina 22.27 39.014 33.07 5.646
Tampa Bay 0.134 1.194 7.286 91.386

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 61.048 28.312 10.586 0.054
San Francisco 18.346 38.922 41.594 1.138
Seattle 20.604 32.556 43.572 3.268
St Louis 0.002 0.21 4.248 95.54

Generated: Thu Nov 27 12:48:21 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 47.196 22.296 9.014 0.978 7.144 5.856 92.484
Denver 35.832 34.716 12.046 1.718 8.082 3.784 96.178
Cincinnati 5.426 9.29 13.97 5.078 9.872 10.266 53.902
Kansas City 4.758 4.53 3.264 0.796 29.98 15.866 59.194
Pittsburgh 2.254 6.744 14.63 2.88 8.614 11.4 46.522
Miami 0.994 8.754 6.614 2.066 14.726 18.166 51.32
Indianapolis 1.086 5.444 16.95 70.37 0.018 0.134 94.002
Cleveland 0.89 3.712 11.16 3.3 5.444 8.978 33.484
Baltimore 0.756 3.334 10.392 6.184 8.116 12.124 40.906
San Diego 0.632 0.686 0.686 0.336 5.888 8.384 16.612
Buffalo 0.172 0.42 0.702 0.794 1.602 3.78 7.47
Houston 0.004 0.074 0.572 5.5 0.514 1.262 7.926
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 41.782 14.658 4.608 0.0 23.216 8.774 93.038
Green Bay 25.69 34.124 16.268 0.024 7.588 9.32 93.014
Dallas 9.074 15.028 27.508 0.004 8.456 11.434 71.504
San Francisco 6.876 7.458 4.012 0.0 23.316 17.918 59.58
Seattle 6.988 5.964 7.65 0.002 17.486 17.596 55.686
Philadelphia 5.052 11.398 31.936 0.0 5.182 9.138 62.706
Detroit 4.534 11.358 7.922 0.0 13.636 23.324 60.774
New Orleans 0.0 0.002 0.024 59.216 0.0 0.0 59.242
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.27 0.0 0.0 22.27
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.004 18.35 0.0 0.0 18.354
Chicago 0.004 0.01 0.066 0.0 1.11 2.408 3.598
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.134 0.0 0.0 0.134
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.01 0.076 0.088
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.012
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Nov 27 12:48:21 EST 2014

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2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 11

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 64.376 29.782 5.842 0.0
Miami 33.28 54.726 11.868 0.126
Buffalo 2.344 15.43 80.844 1.382
NY Jets 0.0 0.062 1.446 98.492

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 35.692 26.632 23.678 13.998
Cincinnati 28.57 22.696 24.078 24.656
Cleveland 21.068 25.038 25.266 28.628
Baltimore 14.67 25.634 26.978 32.718

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 82.046 17.532 0.416 0.006
Houston 17.756 74.19 7.432 0.622
Tennessee 0.174 7.166 70.254 22.406
Jacksonville 0.024 1.112 21.898 76.966

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 61.55 34.496 3.954 0.0
Kansas City 36.658 54.194 9.148 0.0
San Diego 1.792 11.31 86.898 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 52.722 44.156 2.9 0.222
Dallas 46.98 49.936 2.866 0.218
Washington 0.206 3.574 52.538 43.682
NY Giants 0.092 2.334 41.696 55.878

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 61.832 37.718 0.442 0.008
Detroit 37.928 55.576 6.104 0.392
Chicago 0.22 6.094 64.938 28.748
Minnesota 0.02 0.612 28.516 70.852

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 67.148 23.04 9.204 0.608
Atlanta 18.684 37.856 40.16 3.3
Carolina 13.954 37.07 39.782 9.194
Tampa Bay 0.214 2.034 10.854 86.898

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 73.794 20.42 5.634 0.152
San Francisco 11.118 44.484 39.248 5.15
Seattle 14.98 33.364 42.21 9.446
St Louis 0.108 1.732 12.908 85.252

Generated: Wed Nov 19 20:54:29 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 32.002 22.304 8.688 1.382 12.364 10.468 87.208
Denver 27.3 24.89 7.916 1.444 17.56 10.286 89.396
Kansas City 22.292 9.224 4.284 0.858 33.906 11.768 82.332
Miami 8.658 14.022 7.972 2.628 13.37 18.94 65.59
Pittsburgh 3.298 8.724 19.074 4.596 5.334 9.354 50.38
Cincinnati 3.268 7.024 12.71 5.568 4.156 8.394 41.12
Indianapolis 0.886 4.832 15.818 60.51 0.074 0.494 82.614
Cleveland 0.82 3.932 11.846 4.47 2.828 7.398 31.294
Baltimore 0.472 2.348 6.882 4.968 3.302 8.188 26.16
Houston 0.424 1.694 3.336 12.302 1.852 4.154 23.762
San Diego 0.436 0.6 0.528 0.228 3.96 7.408 13.16
Buffalo 0.144 0.406 0.946 0.848 1.294 3.146 6.784
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.174 0.0 0.002 0.176
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.0 0.0 0.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 56.618 13.88 3.296 0.0 16.388 6.002 96.184
Green Bay 16.822 32.866 11.752 0.392 14.106 14.362 90.3
Detroit 8.214 21.156 8.528 0.03 18.388 21.162 77.478
Dallas 4.838 12.428 29.54 0.174 6.126 10.78 63.886
Seattle 5.648 4.458 4.866 0.008 17.174 15.714 47.868
San Francisco 4.418 4.8 1.898 0.002 23.306 20.446 54.87
Philadelphia 3.438 10.208 37.516 1.56 3.08 7.708 63.51
New Orleans 0.0 0.104 1.98 65.064 0.002 0.016 67.166
Atlanta 0.0 0.012 0.168 18.504 0.0 0.014 18.698
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.954 0.0 0.0 13.954
Chicago 0.004 0.082 0.128 0.006 1.22 2.748 4.188
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.154 0.052 0.006 0.14 0.352
St Louis 0.0 0.002 0.094 0.012 0.138 0.544 0.79
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.064 0.028 0.002 0.008 0.102
Minnesota 0.0 0.004 0.016 0.0 0.064 0.356 0.44
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.214 0.0 0.0 0.214

Generated: Wed Nov 19 20:54:29 EST 2014

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2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 10

Wednesday, November 12th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 52.442 33.31 14.202 0.046
Miami 36.254 39.238 23.97 0.538
Buffalo 11.3 27.27 60.02 1.41
NY Jets 0.004 0.182 1.808 98.006

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cleveland 44.696 26.046 19.022 10.236
Pittsburgh 25.216 32.848 22.606 19.33
Baltimore 18.636 22.962 34.236 24.166
Cincinnati 11.452 18.144 24.136 46.268

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.466 6.34 0.19 0.004
Houston 6.254 75.826 15.428 2.492
Tennessee 0.256 15.064 63.854 20.826
Jacksonville 0.024 2.77 20.528 76.678

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 81.978 16.774 1.248 0.0
Kansas City 16.758 68.346 14.892 0.004
San Diego 1.264 14.88 83.72 0.136
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.14 99.86

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 57.052 35.234 6.854 0.86
Dallas 40.556 47.628 10.306 1.51
Washington 1.896 12.414 50.548 35.142
NY Giants 0.496 4.724 32.292 62.488

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 41.88 56.164 1.876 0.08
Detroit 57.876 39.59 2.34 0.194
Minnesota 0.154 2.552 52.376 44.918
Chicago 0.09 1.694 43.408 54.808

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 78.162 17.72 4.046 0.072
Carolina 15.54 56.6 25.882 1.978
Atlanta 6.276 25.1 64.952 3.672
Tampa Bay 0.022 0.58 5.12 94.278

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 62.762 29.554 7.472 0.212
Seattle 29.806 40.476 27.726 1.992
San Francisco 7.392 29.374 57.544 5.69
St Louis 0.04 0.596 7.258 92.106

Generated: Wed Nov 12 22:34:39 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 56.942 16.572 6.684 1.78 11.06 3.586 96.624
New England 11.234 15.736 14.822 10.65 7.232 10.186 69.86
Kansas City 9.798 4.3 1.986 0.674 38.612 15.466 70.836
Indianapolis 6.952 21.928 23.618 40.968 0.172 0.55 94.188
Cleveland 5.27 14.772 15.302 9.352 6.81 10.012 61.518
Miami 5.34 10.652 11.474 8.788 7.95 12.688 56.892
Pittsburgh 2.062 7.502 10.21 5.442 9.724 12.392 47.332
Cincinnati 0.886 2.596 4.16 3.81 4.188 7.842 23.482
Baltimore 0.474 3.254 6.786 8.122 4.262 9.388 32.286
Buffalo 0.538 1.584 3.416 5.762 2.07 4.852 18.222
San Diego 0.364 0.398 0.32 0.182 5.83 8.566 15.66
Houston 0.14 0.704 1.21 4.2 2.084 4.368 12.706
Tennessee 0.0 0.002 0.012 0.242 0.006 0.102 0.364
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.0 0.0 0.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.002 0.006
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 33.96 20.578 7.974 0.25 15.964 12.15 90.876
Detroit 29.412 20.312 7.986 0.166 21.57 12.332 91.778
Green Bay 12.28 17.668 10.728 1.204 19.688 17.702 79.27
Seattle 11.088 9.246 9.196 0.276 19.066 15.788 64.66
Philadelphia 7.55 15.83 30.044 3.628 4.59 8.496 70.138
Dallas 4.244 11.776 23.868 0.668 7.294 12.946 60.796
San Francisco 1.416 3.552 2.358 0.066 10.446 15.288 33.126
New Orleans 0.038 0.9 5.75 71.474 0.006 0.038 78.206
Washington 0.0 0.038 1.436 0.422 0.25 1.61 3.756
Minnesota 0.012 0.054 0.07 0.018 0.682 1.956 2.792
Carolina 0.0 0.004 0.068 15.468 0.0 0.048 15.588
Atlanta 0.0 0.004 0.052 6.22 0.0 0.022 6.298
NY Giants 0.0 0.006 0.39 0.1 0.074 0.452 1.022
Chicago 0.0 0.032 0.05 0.008 0.332 1.05 1.472
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.01 0.038 0.122 0.2
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.0 0.0 0.022

Generated: Wed Nov 12 22:34:39 EST 2014

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2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 9

Thursday, November 6th, 2014

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 42.744 37.83 19.4 0.026
Miami 44.498 34.874 20.49 0.138
Buffalo 12.758 27.284 59.486 0.472
NY Jets 0.0 0.012 0.624 99.364

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 34.742 28.808 24.38 12.07
Cincinnati 38.904 24.414 20.794 15.888
Baltimore 10.164 24.212 30.264 35.36
Cleveland 16.19 22.566 24.562 36.682

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 94.024 5.544 0.424 0.008
Houston 5.084 65.016 23.476 6.424
Tennessee 0.796 23.432 54.396 21.376
Jacksonville 0.096 6.008 21.704 72.192

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 78.312 18.904 2.782 0.002
Kansas City 19.078 61.01 19.848 0.064
San Diego 2.608 20.068 77.07 0.254
Oakland 0.002 0.018 0.3 99.68

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 55.976 31.172 10.364 2.488
Dallas 37.326 40.11 16.888 5.676
Washington 4.044 17.39 39.342 39.224
NY Giants 2.654 11.328 33.406 52.612

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 44.87 47.504 6.796 0.83
Detroit 52.408 39.062 7.484 1.046
Chicago 2.07 9.016 48.06 40.854
Minnesota 0.652 4.418 37.66 57.27

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 75.606 21.422 2.828 0.144
Carolina 21.832 64.074 12.702 1.392
Atlanta 2.474 12.782 66.468 18.276
Tampa Bay 0.088 1.722 18.002 80.188

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 64.914 26.65 7.178 1.258
Seattle 27.446 42.204 24.822 5.528
San Francisco 6.984 27.368 49.148 16.5
St Louis 0.656 3.778 18.852 76.714

Generated: Wed Nov 05 23:27:58 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 41.294 20.398 12.1 4.52 8.794 5.19 92.296
New England 13.134 12.114 10.28 7.216 14.162 12.746 69.652
Miami 12.192 13.348 11.4 7.558 13.23 11.956 69.684
Indianapolis 8.94 18.65 21.398 45.036 0.184 0.372 94.58
Cincinnati 7.304 10.42 12.524 8.656 6.904 9.542 55.35
Kansas City 7.13 5.136 4.284 2.528 23.678 13.768 56.524
Pittsburgh 5.94 10.146 12.458 6.198 9.254 10.52 54.516
Buffalo 1.79 2.794 3.884 4.29 7.146 8.476 28.38
Cleveland 1.436 4.042 6.44 4.272 4.846 7.736 28.772
Baltimore 0.336 1.746 3.61 4.472 4.596 7.992 22.752
San Diego 0.426 0.732 0.742 0.708 5.472 8.0 16.08
Houston 0.078 0.468 0.802 3.736 1.572 3.168 9.824
Tennessee 0.0 0.006 0.078 0.712 0.162 0.534 1.492
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.096 0.0 0.0 0.096
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.002
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 37.896 18.774 6.914 1.33 15.282 9.602 89.798
Detroit 24.156 18.508 8.48 1.264 21.542 12.644 86.594
Green Bay 12.502 17.914 10.79 3.664 17.516 15.326 77.712
Seattle 10.018 8.66 6.878 1.89 19.008 14.866 61.32
Philadelphia 7.538 14.5 23.378 10.56 4.368 7.328 67.672
Dallas 4.174 10.352 19.15 3.65 7.186 11.422 55.934
New Orleans 1.908 6.692 15.506 51.5 0.212 0.834 76.652
San Francisco 1.336 2.854 2.014 0.78 8.398 11.934 27.316
Chicago 0.294 0.73 0.75 0.296 3.072 5.514 10.656
Carolina 0.04 0.346 2.16 19.286 0.302 1.254 23.388
Minnesota 0.082 0.188 0.238 0.144 1.438 3.444 5.534
NY Giants 0.032 0.28 1.384 0.958 0.77 2.292 5.716
Washington 0.006 0.114 2.01 1.914 0.556 2.476 7.076
St Louis 0.018 0.078 0.29 0.27 0.342 1.004 2.002
Atlanta 0.0 0.01 0.056 2.408 0.008 0.058 2.54
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.086 0.0 0.002 0.09

Generated: Wed Nov 05 23:27:58 EST 2014

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Playoff Forecast Software is now updated for 2014

Saturday, November 1st, 2014

Due to a number of factors, I am several weeks late in updating the software for 2014. However, that situation has been remedied and the software is now ready for forecasts of the 2014 season. I will begin posting the playoff forecast summaries here, beginning this coming week.

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