2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 11

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 64.376 29.782 5.842 0.0
Miami 33.28 54.726 11.868 0.126
Buffalo 2.344 15.43 80.844 1.382
NY Jets 0.0 0.062 1.446 98.492

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 35.692 26.632 23.678 13.998
Cincinnati 28.57 22.696 24.078 24.656
Cleveland 21.068 25.038 25.266 28.628
Baltimore 14.67 25.634 26.978 32.718

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 82.046 17.532 0.416 0.006
Houston 17.756 74.19 7.432 0.622
Tennessee 0.174 7.166 70.254 22.406
Jacksonville 0.024 1.112 21.898 76.966

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 61.55 34.496 3.954 0.0
Kansas City 36.658 54.194 9.148 0.0
San Diego 1.792 11.31 86.898 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 52.722 44.156 2.9 0.222
Dallas 46.98 49.936 2.866 0.218
Washington 0.206 3.574 52.538 43.682
NY Giants 0.092 2.334 41.696 55.878

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 61.832 37.718 0.442 0.008
Detroit 37.928 55.576 6.104 0.392
Chicago 0.22 6.094 64.938 28.748
Minnesota 0.02 0.612 28.516 70.852

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 67.148 23.04 9.204 0.608
Atlanta 18.684 37.856 40.16 3.3
Carolina 13.954 37.07 39.782 9.194
Tampa Bay 0.214 2.034 10.854 86.898

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 73.794 20.42 5.634 0.152
San Francisco 11.118 44.484 39.248 5.15
Seattle 14.98 33.364 42.21 9.446
St Louis 0.108 1.732 12.908 85.252

Generated: Wed Nov 19 20:54:29 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 32.002 22.304 8.688 1.382 12.364 10.468 87.208
Denver 27.3 24.89 7.916 1.444 17.56 10.286 89.396
Kansas City 22.292 9.224 4.284 0.858 33.906 11.768 82.332
Miami 8.658 14.022 7.972 2.628 13.37 18.94 65.59
Pittsburgh 3.298 8.724 19.074 4.596 5.334 9.354 50.38
Cincinnati 3.268 7.024 12.71 5.568 4.156 8.394 41.12
Indianapolis 0.886 4.832 15.818 60.51 0.074 0.494 82.614
Cleveland 0.82 3.932 11.846 4.47 2.828 7.398 31.294
Baltimore 0.472 2.348 6.882 4.968 3.302 8.188 26.16
Houston 0.424 1.694 3.336 12.302 1.852 4.154 23.762
San Diego 0.436 0.6 0.528 0.228 3.96 7.408 13.16
Buffalo 0.144 0.406 0.946 0.848 1.294 3.146 6.784
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.174 0.0 0.002 0.176
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.0 0.0 0.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 56.618 13.88 3.296 0.0 16.388 6.002 96.184
Green Bay 16.822 32.866 11.752 0.392 14.106 14.362 90.3
Detroit 8.214 21.156 8.528 0.03 18.388 21.162 77.478
Dallas 4.838 12.428 29.54 0.174 6.126 10.78 63.886
Seattle 5.648 4.458 4.866 0.008 17.174 15.714 47.868
San Francisco 4.418 4.8 1.898 0.002 23.306 20.446 54.87
Philadelphia 3.438 10.208 37.516 1.56 3.08 7.708 63.51
New Orleans 0.0 0.104 1.98 65.064 0.002 0.016 67.166
Atlanta 0.0 0.012 0.168 18.504 0.0 0.014 18.698
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.954 0.0 0.0 13.954
Chicago 0.004 0.082 0.128 0.006 1.22 2.748 4.188
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.154 0.052 0.006 0.14 0.352
St Louis 0.0 0.002 0.094 0.012 0.138 0.544 0.79
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.064 0.028 0.002 0.008 0.102
Minnesota 0.0 0.004 0.016 0.0 0.064 0.356 0.44
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.214 0.0 0.0 0.214

Generated: Wed Nov 19 20:54:29 EST 2014

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