After the Viking’s upset of the Eagles, the NFC Wildcard Round had cleared up considerably. The Eagles are locked in as the third seed and will host one of the follwing teams with the indicated probabilities:
Green Bay 78.5%
Giants 19%
Tampa 2.5%
In the other game, the winner of the St. Louis – Seattle game will host either New Orleans or Atlanta. The odds of those match ups are:
Seattle – New Orleans 56%
Seattle – Atlanta 10%
St. Louis – New Orleans 29%
St. Louis – Atlanta 5%
It is now possible to project the various match ups for the Wild Card round in the AFC, using my software and the Team Efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats. Here are the projections in the AFC, with the home teams listed in the first column and their probability of facing various opponents listed in each row. The most likely match ups are NY Jets @ Kansas City and Baltimore @ Indianapolis, but there are still many other match ups in play. I’ll break down the NFC match ups after the Tuesday Night Football game.
| Team | NY Jets | Pittsburgh | Baltimore | Total |
| Kansas City | 71 | 17 | 12 | 100 |
| Indianapolis | 27 | 10 | 54 | 91 |
| Jacksonville | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| Total | 100 | 27 | 73 |
The 49ers are still in the thick of the NFC West playoff race, with a 35% chance of winning the division. At the same time, they are still mathematically alive to hold the #2 overall pick in the 2011 draft.
Here are this weeks predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 97.09 | 2.91 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 2.91 | 97.09 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Pittsburgh | 80.58 | 19.42 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Baltimore | 19.42 | 80.58 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.942 | 1.058 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.058 | 98.942 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Indianapolis | 79.038 | 16.818 | 4.144 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 18.818 | 75.582 | 5.6 | 0.0 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.03 | 44.97 |
| Tennessee | 2.144 | 7.6 | 35.226 | 55.03 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Diego | 46.496 | 51.324 | 2.18 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 52.454 | 43.112 | 4.434 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 1.05 | 5.564 | 93.386 | 0.0 |
| Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Philadelphia | 98.322 | 1.678 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Giants | 1.678 | 98.322 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.054 | 42.946 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.946 | 57.054 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Green Bay | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.464 | 37.536 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.536 | 62.464 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 93.13 | 6.87 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Orleans | 6.87 | 80.296 | 12.834 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 12.834 | 87.166 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Seattle | 45.302 | 29.072 | 25.626 | 0.0 |
| St Louis | 19.234 | 44.252 | 34.916 | 1.598 |
| San Francisco | 35.464 | 26.676 | 35.766 | 2.094 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.692 | 96.308 |
Generated: Wed Dec 22 13:58:50 EST 2010AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| New England | 97.09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.91 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 80.52 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 3.272 | 16.148 | 100.0 |
| NY Jets | 2.41 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.596 | 61.888 | 99.394 |
| Baltimore | 0.5 | 18.92 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59.154 | 18.542 | 97.116 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.06 | 48.272 | 4.122 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.454 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.4 | 1.096 | 0.0 | 2.594 | 49.09 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.114 | 73.924 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.038 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.404 | 18.414 | 0.068 | 0.828 | 19.714 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.75 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.05 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.144 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.144 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 90.89 | 1.944 | 0.296 | 0.0 | 6.87 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Philadelphia | 2.0 | 59.026 | 37.296 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.294 | 99.616 |
| New Orleans | 6.87 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.444 | 4.696 | 88.01 |
| Chicago | 0.24 | 37.588 | 62.172 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| NY Giants | 0.0 | 1.442 | 0.236 | 0.0 | 7.95 | 46.378 | 56.006 |
| Seattle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.302 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.302 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.464 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.464 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.234 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.234 |
| Green Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.892 | 38.87 | 46.762 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.844 | 8.762 | 9.606 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Wed Dec 22 13:58:50 EST 2010
Here are this weeks predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 97.838 | 2.162 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 2.162 | 92.39 | 5.448 | 0.0 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 5.448 | 94.552 | 0.0 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Pittsburgh | 92.88 | 7.12 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Baltimore | 7.12 | 92.88 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 99.44 | 0.56 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.56 | 99.44 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Jacksonville | 31.488 | 56.842 | 11.67 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 66.174 | 25.012 | 7.578 | 1.236 |
| Houston | 1.306 | 12.73 | 62.73 | 23.234 |
| Tennessee | 1.032 | 5.416 | 18.022 | 75.53 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Diego | 53.264 | 44.394 | 2.342 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 45.36 | 48.812 | 5.828 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 1.376 | 6.794 | 91.83 | 0.0 |
| Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 53.13 | 46.87 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Philadelphia | 46.87 | 53.13 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.906 | 28.094 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.094 | 71.906 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 57.696 | 42.304 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Green Bay | 42.304 | 57.696 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 93.88 | 6.12 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.12 | 93.88 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 89.422 | 10.578 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Orleans | 10.578 | 78.378 | 11.044 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 11.044 | 88.956 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Seattle | 48.296 | 30.276 | 21.26 | 0.168 |
| St Louis | 27.944 | 36.18 | 33.342 | 2.534 |
| San Francisco | 23.76 | 32.642 | 38.808 | 4.79 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.902 | 6.59 | 92.508 |
Generated: Thu Dec 16 01:13:17 EST 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| New England | 85.03 | 12.76 | 0.048 | 0.0 | 1.74 | 0.422 | 100.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 13.858 | 78.902 | 0.114 | 0.0060 | 3.328 | 3.792 | 100.0 |
| Baltimore | 0.304 | 6.808 | 0.0080 | 0.0 | 73.88 | 14.752 | 95.752 |
| NY Jets | 0.808 | 1.334 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 18.428 | 60.466 | 81.056 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 49.532 | 3.732 | 2.202 | 11.244 | 66.71 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.06 | 39.108 | 6.192 | 0.078 | 3.342 | 48.78 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.678 | 58.496 | 0.0 | 0.078 | 66.252 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.136 | 2.684 | 28.668 | 0.232 | 1.6 | 33.32 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.808 | 0.568 | 0.0 | 0.094 | 1.47 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.306 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.306 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.032 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.032 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.112 | 4.21 | 4.322 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 79.57 | 9.138 | 0.714 | 0.0 | 9.17 | 1.378 | 99.97 |
| New Orleans | 10.386 | 0.192 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.52 | 7.738 | 93.836 |
| NY Giants | 4.66 | 38.352 | 10.118 | 0.0 | 3.252 | 25.072 | 81.454 |
| Philadelphia | 4.61 | 26.288 | 15.972 | 0.0 | 3.078 | 24.5 | 74.448 |
| Chicago | 0.756 | 13.152 | 43.788 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.962 | 60.658 |
| Green Bay | 0.018 | 12.878 | 29.036 | 0.372 | 0.922 | 11.41 | 54.636 |
| Seattle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.372 | 47.924 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.296 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.944 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.944 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.76 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.058 | 26.94 | 34.998 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Thu Dec 16 01:13:17 EST 2010
Here are this weeks predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 82.818 | 16.506 | 0.676 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 16.958 | 79.664 | 3.378 | 0.0 |
| Miami | 0.224 | 3.83 | 95.868 | 0.078 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.078 | 99.922 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Pittsburgh | 91.482 | 8.51 | 0.0080 | 0.0 |
| Baltimore | 8.518 | 90.13 | 1.352 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 1.36 | 97.754 | 0.886 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.886 | 99.114 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Jacksonville | 34.686 | 35.27 | 24.974 | 5.07 |
| Indianapolis | 44.762 | 25.746 | 17.724 | 11.768 |
| Houston | 11.936 | 24.802 | 36.394 | 26.868 |
| Tennessee | 8.616 | 14.182 | 20.908 | 56.294 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Kansas City | 63.57 | 31.214 | 5.216 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 33.468 | 55.428 | 10.996 | 0.108 |
| Oakland | 2.962 | 13.31 | 83.122 | 0.606 |
| Denver | 0.0 | 0.048 | 0.666 | 99.286 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 54.12 | 43.43 | 2.374 | 0.076 |
| Philadelphia | 45.744 | 51.76 | 2.356 | 0.14 |
| Washington | 0.136 | 3.036 | 62.012 | 34.816 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 1.774 | 33.258 | 64.968 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 61.72 | 38.228 | 0.052 | 0.0 |
| Chicago | 38.28 | 61.72 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.052 | 99.478 | 0.47 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.47 | 99.53 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 76.776 | 23.142 | 0.082 | 0.0 |
| New Orleans | 23.216 | 70.858 | 5.926 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0080 | 6.0 | 93.992 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Seattle | 60.46 | 26.964 | 12.556 | 0.02 |
| St Louis | 25.506 | 42.33 | 31.5 | 0.664 |
| San Francisco | 14.034 | 30.268 | 50.592 | 5.106 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.438 | 5.352 | 94.21 |
Generated: Tue Dec 07 17:22:51 EST 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| New England | 63.258 | 18.65 | 0.904 | 0.0060 | 14.654 | 1.93 | 99.402 |
| Pittsburgh | 28.838 | 61.386 | 1.17 | 0.088 | 3.39 | 4.882 | 99.754 |
| NY Jets | 6.754 | 9.334 | 0.808 | 0.062 | 35.838 | 38.064 | 90.86 |
| Baltimore | 0.988 | 6.798 | 0.656 | 0.076 | 42.818 | 32.194 | 83.53 |
| Kansas City | 0.156 | 3.044 | 56.264 | 4.106 | 0.138 | 3.654 | 67.362 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.396 | 31.582 | 1.49 | 2.552 | 13.034 | 49.054 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.042 | 4.264 | 40.456 | 0.0020 | 0.398 | 45.162 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0060 | 0.31 | 1.616 | 32.754 | 0.176 | 1.19 | 36.052 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 2.08 | 0.88 | 0.024 | 0.444 | 3.43 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.258 | 11.678 | 0.02 | 0.308 | 12.264 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.26 | 8.356 | 0.0 | 0.0060 | 8.622 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.038 | 0.138 | 0.048 | 0.372 | 3.606 | 4.202 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.016 | 0.29 | 0.306 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 68.28 | 6.64 | 1.852 | 0.0040 | 19.298 | 3.136 | 99.21 |
| New Orleans | 21.132 | 1.888 | 0.196 | 0.0 | 64.258 | 8.05 | 95.524 |
| Green Bay | 1.962 | 42.228 | 17.144 | 0.386 | 3.624 | 20.49 | 85.834 |
| NY Giants | 3.352 | 19.808 | 30.868 | 0.092 | 2.352 | 16.136 | 72.608 |
| Chicago | 2.542 | 21.426 | 14.178 | 0.134 | 5.0 | 30.314 | 73.594 |
| Philadelphia | 2.73 | 7.906 | 34.572 | 0.536 | 2.128 | 9.068 | 56.94 |
| Seattle | 0.0 | 0.098 | 1.036 | 59.326 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 60.49 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.048 | 25.458 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.506 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.034 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.034 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0020 | 0.0060 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.34 | 12.464 | 15.812 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.106 | 0.03 | 0.0 | 0.264 | 0.4 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.046 | 0.046 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 0.0020 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 07 17:22:51 EST 2010