NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	82.818	16.506	0.676	0.0
NY Jets	16.958	79.664	3.378	0.0
Miami	0.224	3.83	95.868	0.078
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.078	99.922

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	91.482	8.51	0.0080	0.0
Baltimore	8.518	90.13	1.352	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	1.36	97.754	0.886
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.886	99.114

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Jacksonville	34.686	35.27	24.974	5.07
Indianapolis	44.762	25.746	17.724	11.768
Houston	11.936	24.802	36.394	26.868
Tennessee	8.616	14.182	20.908	56.294

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Kansas City	63.57	31.214	5.216	0.0
San Diego	33.468	55.428	10.996	0.108
Oakland	2.962	13.31	83.122	0.606
Denver	0.0	0.048	0.666	99.286

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	54.12	43.43	2.374	0.076
Philadelphia	45.744	51.76	2.356	0.14
Washington	0.136	3.036	62.012	34.816
Dallas	0.0	1.774	33.258	64.968

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	61.72	38.228	0.052	0.0
Chicago	38.28	61.72	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.052	99.478	0.47
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.47	99.53

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	76.776	23.142	0.082	0.0
New Orleans	23.216	70.858	5.926	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0080	6.0	93.992	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	60.46	26.964	12.556	0.02
St Louis	25.506	42.33	31.5	0.664
San Francisco	14.034	30.268	50.592	5.106
Arizona	0.0	0.438	5.352	94.21

Generated: Tue Dec 07 17:22:51 EST 2010

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New England	63.258	18.65	0.904	0.0060	14.654	1.93	99.402
Pittsburgh	28.838	61.386	1.17	0.088	3.39	4.882	99.754
NY Jets	6.754	9.334	0.808	0.062	35.838	38.064	90.86
Baltimore	0.988	6.798	0.656	0.076	42.818	32.194	83.53
Kansas City	0.156	3.044	56.264	4.106	0.138	3.654	67.362
San Diego	0.0	0.396	31.582	1.49	2.552	13.034	49.054
Indianapolis	0.0	0.042	4.264	40.456	0.0020	0.398	45.162
Jacksonville	0.0060	0.31	1.616	32.754	0.176	1.19	36.052
Oakland	0.0	0.0020	2.08	0.88	0.024	0.444	3.43
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.258	11.678	0.02	0.308	12.264
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.26	8.356	0.0	0.0060	8.622
Miami	0.0	0.038	0.138	0.048	0.372	3.606	4.202
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.016	0.29	0.306
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	68.28	6.64	1.852	0.0040	19.298	3.136	99.21
New Orleans	21.132	1.888	0.196	0.0	64.258	8.05	95.524
Green Bay	1.962	42.228	17.144	0.386	3.624	20.49	85.834
NY Giants	3.352	19.808	30.868	0.092	2.352	16.136	72.608
Chicago	2.542	21.426	14.178	0.134	5.0	30.314	73.594
Philadelphia	2.73	7.906	34.572	0.536	2.128	9.068	56.94
Seattle	0.0	0.098	1.036	59.326	0.0	0.03	60.49
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.048	25.458	0.0	0.0	25.506
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	14.034	0.0	0.0	14.034
Tampa Bay	0.0020	0.0060	0.0	0.0	3.34	12.464	15.812
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.106	0.03	0.0	0.264	0.4
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.046	0.046
Dallas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.0020
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 07 17:22:51 EST 2010

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