Archive for September, 2012

2012 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 3

Wednesday, September 26th, 2012

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Buffalo 39.702 27.866 19.838 12.594
NY Jets 25.394 28.178 26.892 19.536
New England 23.542 25.726 26.412 24.32
Miami 11.362 18.23 26.858 43.55

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 79.99 14.592 4.282 1.136
Cincinnati 11.462 45.238 28.064 15.236
Pittsburgh 4.802 22.682 33.646 38.87
Cleveland 3.746 17.488 34.008 44.758

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 95.518 3.844 0.556 0.082
Jacksonville 2.226 50.068 30.746 16.96
Tennessee 1.326 26.492 34.47 37.712
Indianapolis 0.93 19.596 34.228 45.246

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 72.166 21.766 4.99 1.078
San Diego 22.668 52.222 18.704 6.406
Kansas City 2.972 14.218 37.05 45.76
Oakland 2.194 11.794 39.256 46.756

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 64.044 23.83 11.944 0.182
Dallas 18.232 38.396 41.59 1.782
NY Giants 17.688 37.352 43.316 1.644
Washington 0.036 0.422 3.15 96.392

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 48.496 27.504 16.722 7.278
Green Bay 29.93 33.48 23.932 12.658
Chicago 15.22 25.15 33.7 25.93
Detroit 6.354 13.866 25.646 54.134

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 83.762 14.11 2.096 0.032
Carolina 13.904 63.726 21.832 0.538
Tampa Bay 2.332 21.838 70.46 5.37
New Orleans 0.0020 0.326 5.612 94.06

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 53.562 34.464 10.75 1.224
San Francisco 38.752 41.18 17.648 2.42
Seattle 7.16 21.592 56.178 15.07
St Louis 0.526 2.764 15.424 81.286

Generated: Thu Sep 27 19:39:19 EDT 2012

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 40.7 27.198 16.73 10.89 1.156 1.052 97.726
Denver 25.32 22.158 15.752 8.936 11.99 5.76 89.916
Baltimore 19.572 22.116 21.772 16.53 4.952 3.982 88.924
San Diego 4.618 6.816 6.186 5.048 21.638 12.926 57.232
Buffalo 4.27 8.0 13.168 14.264 10.438 10.838 60.978
New England 1.728 3.676 6.83 11.308 6.778 8.994 39.314
NY Jets 1.656 3.758 7.474 12.506 6.712 8.996 41.102
Cincinnati 0.962 2.274 3.466 4.76 9.872 9.478 30.812
Miami 0.316 1.158 3.376 6.512 4.342 6.986 22.69
Jacksonville 0.236 0.526 0.62 0.844 7.462 8.398 18.086
Kansas City 0.18 0.494 0.914 1.384 3.146 4.092 10.21
Pittsburgh 0.12 0.618 1.564 2.5 3.354 4.826 12.982
Cleveland 0.118 0.438 0.908 2.282 2.05 3.504 9.3
Oakland 0.108 0.408 0.672 1.006 2.426 3.98 8.6
Indianapolis 0.062 0.16 0.236 0.472 1.894 2.982 5.806
Tennessee 0.034 0.202 0.332 0.758 1.79 3.206 6.322

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 34.204 22.102 17.884 9.572 4.186 3.714 91.662
Philadelphia 19.908 19.48 16.934 7.722 9.42 8.158 81.622
Arizona 17.614 16.442 12.352 7.154 14.488 9.988 78.038
San Francisco 10.91 12.382 9.778 5.682 17.7 12.336 68.788
Minnesota 4.828 8.354 12.462 22.852 3.348 4.654 56.498
NY Giants 4.128 5.54 5.258 2.762 15.112 14.432 47.232
Dallas 3.09 5.02 6.412 3.71 11.332 13.334 42.898
Carolina 2.33 3.47 4.606 3.498 11.258 12.264 37.426
Green Bay 1.028 2.898 6.506 19.498 1.868 3.714 35.512
Seattle 1.156 2.058 2.428 1.518 7.324 9.334 23.818
Chicago 0.57 1.438 3.37 9.842 1.874 3.388 20.482
Tampa Bay 0.13 0.382 0.872 0.948 1.316 2.74 6.388
Detroit 0.084 0.358 0.95 4.962 0.44 1.218 8.012
St Louis 0.02 0.072 0.176 0.258 0.302 0.638 1.466
Washington 0.0 0.0040 0.012 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.146
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0020 0.0080 0.012

Generated: Thu Sep 27 19:39:19 EDT 2012

The 2012 season is ready to go.

Sunday, September 9th, 2012

I’ve entered the schedule for the 2012 NFL season into the software tool, so folks can start playing with that now. During the first few weeks, all of the NFL teams will be rated equally in the software. Around week 3 or 4, the ratings on Advanced NFL Stats will become¬†available. At that point, I will begin posting the weekly predictions here as is my custom.

Happy NFL season!