Archive for the ‘Weeky Predictions’ Category

2008 Playoff Predictions after Week 5

Sunday, October 12th, 2008

These are the first predictions for the 2008 season. They were computed before the start of the week 6 games and are posted in order to provide documentation of the prediction accuracy for the 2008 season. I think the predictions are putting a little too much stock in Miami, Tennessee and Arizona so early in the season. We’ll see.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Miami 55.32 29.22 13.08 2.38
NY Jets 22.8 32.16 31.18 13.86
Buffalo 20.04 30.88 33.86 15.22
New England 1.84 7.74 21.88 68.54

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 92.24 7.34 0.4 0.02
Baltimore 7.4 83.06 8.34 1.2
Cincinnati 0.34 6.56 52.1 41.0
Cleveland 0.02 3.04 39.16 57.78

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 83.92 13.74 2.26 0.08
Indianapolis 12.72 53.48 27.86 5.94
Jacksonville 3.28 28.64 51.34 16.74
Houston 0.08 4.14 18.54 77.24

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 66.34 32.08 1.58 0.0
Denver 32.58 60.96 6.42 0.04
Oakland 1.08 6.96 88.62 3.34
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 3.38 96.62

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington 58.48 36.7 4.3 0.52
NY Giants 38.52 45.24 12.5 3.74
Dallas 2.38 12.24 52.48 32.9
Philadelphia 0.62 5.82 30.72 62.84

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 83.98 13.74 2.28 0.0
Minnesota 12.92 61.12 25.82 0.14
Green Bay 3.1 25.14 71.46 0.3
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.44 99.56

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 84.7 11.78 2.88 0.64
Tampa Bay 8.1 37.5 34.38 20.02
New Orleans 5.22 32.42 33.44 28.92
Atlanta 1.98 18.3 29.3 50.42

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 97.7 2.16 0.14 0.0
San Francisco 1.56 69.7 22.64 6.1
Seattle 0.66 22.06 54.36 22.92
St Louis 0.08 6.08 22.86 70.98

Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 30.52 22.56 20.08 10.76 3.04 3.9 90.86
Miami 24.08 17.92 10.36 2.96 20.5 11.4 87.22
San Diego 14.04 20.78 22.36 9.16 10.54 9.64 86.52
Pittsburgh 9.16 12.54 17.76 52.78 0.16 0.36 92.76
Buffalo 7.5 6.4 4.62 1.52 19.38 18.46 57.88
Denver 6.38 9.16 10.16 6.88 16.68 15.62 64.88
NY Jets 6.4 6.8 6.86 2.74 18.14 16.98 57.92
Indianapolis 1.38 2.72 4.96 3.66 5.48 9.62 27.82
New England 0.38 0.52 0.7 0.24 3.9 6.26 12.0
Baltimore 0.06 0.12 0.62 6.6 0.44 1.58 9.42
Jacksonville 0.04 0.32 1.08 1.84 0.88 3.42 7.58
Oakland 0.06 0.16 0.42 0.44 0.72 2.38 4.18
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.34 0.0 0.02 0.36
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.36 0.58
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Washington 52.12 5.88 0.42 0.06 36.56 4.16 99.2
NY Giants 33.46 4.42 0.6 0.04 43.6 11.52 93.64
Carolina 9.18 46.18 21.08 8.26 0.56 4.0 89.26
Chicago 2.02 20.54 40.26 21.16 0.08 1.9 85.96
Arizona 1.0 14.02 24.98 57.7 0.0 0.02 97.72
Dallas 1.72 0.56 0.1 0.0 11.66 38.06 52.1
Tampa Bay 0.14 3.36 3.2 1.4 1.04 8.4 17.54
Minnesota 0.04 2.18 5.44 5.26 0.48 5.74 19.14
Philadelphia 0.28 0.16 0.16 0.02 5.32 17.52 23.46
New Orleans 0.04 1.62 1.74 1.82 0.36 5.14 10.72
Atlanta 0.0 0.86 0.76 0.36 0.3 2.96 5.24
Green Bay 0.0 0.2 1.18 1.72 0.02 0.42 3.54
San Francisco 0.0 0.02 0.08 1.46 0.02 0.1 1.68
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.66 0.0 0.06 0.72
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.0 0.08
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008

2007 Playoff predictions after week 3

Monday, September 24th, 2007

Here are the predictions after week 3.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 95.72 3.94 0.32 0.02
NY Jets 3.18 61.42 25.0 10.4
Miami 0.7 19.0 42.18 38.12
Buffalo 0.4 15.64 32.5 51.46

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 51.3 30.86 15.5 2.34
Baltimore 36.16 40.24 19.24 4.36
Cincinnati 11.64 24.52 47.54 16.3
Cleveland 0.9 4.38 17.72 77.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 74.58 17.9 6.16 1.36
Tennessee 9.58 33.06 31.46 25.9
Jacksonville 11.48 29.36 33.28 25.88
Houston 4.36 19.68 29.1 46.86

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.36 30.76 11.5 3.38
San Diego 32.9 37.72 21.28 8.1
Kansas City 10.34 21.8 40.68 27.18
Oakland 2.4 9.72 26.54 61.34

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 78.08 15.04 5.36 1.52
Washington 12.12 38.4 30.8 18.68
NY Giants 4.76 25.32 31.72 38.2
Philadelphia 5.04 21.24 32.12 41.6

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 62.36 23.72 10.94 2.98
Chicago 20.12 36.24 29.5 14.14
Detroit 15.24 30.78 36.06 17.92
Minnesota 2.28 9.26 23.5 64.96

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 56.78 25.58 13.34 4.3
Tampa Bay 25.44 35.82 25.56 13.18
New Orleans 13.64 25.42 35.14 25.8
Atlanta 4.14 13.18 25.96 56.72

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 47.08 31.94 17.58 3.4
Seattle 38.72 35.44 19.76 6.08
Arizona 12.9 26.12 42.62 18.36
St Louis 1.3 6.5 20.04 72.16

Generated: Tue Sep 25 00:04:17 EDT 2007

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 39.16 26.54 18.9 11.12 0.7 0.86 97.28
Indianapolis 27.66 22.84 15.08 9.0 8.1 6.78 89.46
Pittsburgh 11.92 14.66 15.04 9.68 12.38 9.36 73.04
Baltimore 8.64 10.3 10.34 6.88 17.7 12.24 66.1
Denver 4.64 9.26 15.88 24.58 4.78 6.2 65.34
Jacksonville 2.12 3.46 3.56 2.34 13.76 12.76 38.0
San Diego 1.6 4.6 8.18 18.52 4.8 6.88 44.58
Tennessee 1.68 2.68 2.88 2.34 13.62 12.76 35.96
Cincinnati 1.56 2.86 4.1 3.12 8.86 9.96 30.46
Houston 0.6 1.16 1.62 0.98 6.88 9.16 20.4
Kansas City 0.2 0.8 2.34 7.0 1.94 3.26 15.54
NY Jets 0.16 0.44 1.24 1.34 4.26 4.88 12.32
Oakland 0.04 0.12 0.28 1.96 0.62 1.6 4.62
Miami 0.02 0.16 0.12 0.4 0.78 1.38 2.86
Buffalo 0.0 0.08 0.12 0.2 0.24 0.48 1.12
Cleveland 0.0 0.04 0.32 0.54 0.58 1.44 2.92

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Dallas 45.24 18.68 10.26 3.9 8.64 4.94 91.66
Green Bay 17.8 19.12 15.96 9.48 8.3 6.54 77.2
Carolina 9.42 13.66 15.22 18.48 4.88 5.28 66.94
San Francisco 7.56 12.4 13.18 13.94 7.04 7.52 61.64
Seattle 5.5 9.38 11.58 12.26 8.2 7.94 54.86
Washington 3.62 4.04 2.92 1.54 16.44 12.92 41.48
Chicago 2.06 5.66 6.64 5.76 7.72 8.76 36.6
Tampa Bay 2.08 4.84 6.5 12.02 5.0 6.2 36.64
Detroit 2.2 3.34 5.3 4.4 6.14 7.44 28.82
Arizona 1.22 3.0 3.82 4.86 4.32 5.12 22.34
Philadelphia 1.14 1.44 1.46 1.0 8.38 8.36 21.78
NY Giants 1.04 1.4 1.3 1.02 8.54 8.48 21.78
New Orleans 0.84 2.16 3.72 6.92 3.38 5.42 22.44
Atlanta 0.12 0.44 1.08 2.5 1.12 1.9 7.16
St Louis 0.1 0.1 0.22 0.88 0.4 0.88 2.58
Minnesota 0.06 0.34 0.84 1.04 1.5 2.3 6.08

Generated: Tue Sep 25 00:04:17 EDT 2007

Playoff predictions 2006, after week 16

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

Here they are.

Once the playoff teams are finalized, I’ll do a year in reveiw post and a preview of improvements on slate for next season.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 69.68 30.32 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 30.32 69.68 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 85.48 14.52 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 14.52 85.48 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 71.68 28.32 0.0 0.0
Dallas 28.32 71.68 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 75.08 24.92 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 24.92 75.08 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 83.9 16.1 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 16.1 75.4 8.5
Arizona 0.0 0.0 8.5 91.5

Generated: Tue Dec 26 00:38:01 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
San Diego 91.28 8.72 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 8.72 71.08 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.0 20.2 64.86 14.94 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 0.0 14.94 85.06 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.84 10.64 85.48
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.84 61.22 84.06
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.32 21.02 23.34
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.86 2.86
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.96 1.96
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 71.68 0.0 28.32 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 0.0 28.32 0.0 71.68 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.64 68.64
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.58 10.58
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 8.3
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.64 7.64
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.84 4.84
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 26 00:38:01 EST 2006

 

NFL Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 14

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

Here are this week’s forecasts.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 93.2 6.8 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 6.8 64.62 26.8 1.78
Buffalo 0.0 19.52 48.86 31.62
Miami 0.0 9.06 24.34 66.6

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 95.42 4.58 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 4.58 92.72 2.7 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 2.7 96.2 1.1
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 1.1 98.9

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 97.98 2.02 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 2.02 85.28 12.7 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 12.7 86.28 1.02
Houston 0.0 0.0 1.02 98.98

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 54.98 45.02 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 45.02 54.98 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 66.36 24.66 8.98 0.0
NY Giants 18.24 49.44 32.32 0.0
Philadelphia 15.4 25.9 58.7 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 69.32 30.68 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 30.68 69.32 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 98.22 1.78 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.36 63.54 36.1 0.0
Carolina 1.42 34.68 63.9 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 98.34 1.66 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 35.26 50.5 14.24
San Francisco 1.66 52.84 25.4 20.1
Arizona 0.0 10.24 24.1 65.66

Generated: Tue Dec 12 00:17:35 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
San Diego 76.02 19.58 4.26 0.14 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 16.4 26.06 47.96 5.0 3.28 1.22 99.92
Indianapolis 7.58 50.78 32.28 7.34 1.02 0.8 99.8
New England 0.0 2.12 12.84 78.24 1.12 1.78 96.1
Cincinnati 0.0 1.18 1.24 2.16 38.28 24.26 67.12
Jacksonville 0.0 0.28 1.42 0.32 20.8 28.84 51.66
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 2.82 10.9 20.52
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.3 16.42 43.72
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.56 10.38 14.94
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.62 2.76 3.38
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 1.32 1.46
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.72 0.76
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.6 0.62
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 97.94 2.06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 2.06 77.36 15.26 3.54 0.46 0.94 99.62
Dallas 0.0 10.56 41.66 14.14 16.34 10.28 92.98
Seattle 0.0 3.82 27.36 67.16 0.0 0.04 98.38
NY Giants 0.0 5.54 4.58 8.12 35.44 19.32 73.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.48 10.86 4.06 20.5 25.42 61.32
Atlanta 0.0 0.18 0.12 0.06 17.96 17.24 35.56
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.16 1.26 1.2 5.6 8.22
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.66 0.0 0.12 1.78
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.08 20.56 28.64
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.36 0.38
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.12
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 12 00:17:35 EST 2006

Graphical Comparison of DVOA and NFL-Forecast after Week 13, 2006

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

I’ve prepared the comparison between playoff predictions based on DVOA power ratings and NFL-Forecast playoff predictions in graphical time-series form , from week 9 through week 13. The filled circles represent DVOA predictions while the open circles represent my predictions. Hopefully the team-based color coding that I used is self explanatory. I’ll include the Week 13 DVOA ratings as soon as Mike Harris posts them.

The first set of graphs shows the division races (I’ve shown only teams that have had a significant chance since week 9). All 8 division races appear to be converging to selecting a champion, using both the DVOA and NFL-Forecast projections. DVOA ratings did significantly better in predicting the AFC West race, recognizing the superiority of the Chargers compared to the Broncos. In the NFC East race, my software had greater misplaced confidence in the Giants than DVOA, but transferred this misplaced confidence to the Eagles. Neither system really picked out the Cowboys as the division winner significantly better that the other. In the rest of the races, the predictions were comparable, with DVOA converging to apparent division winners slightly faster than NFL-forecast, with the exception of the NFC West race. My system still holds a bit of hope for the Jets, to eek out the AFC East title, while the DVOA has declared the race all but over. In contrast, the Wild Card races are not converging, with only 4 weeks remaining in the season.

The Wild Card race this year appears to be a white noise process, with team’s fortunes rising and falling on a weekly basis. The early front runners as predicted by both systems, the Broncos and Giants, have lost much of their lead. It will be interesting to see if either system outperforms the other in the WC race, but the lack of convergence would seem to indicate that any better performance of one system over the other would be attributable to luck rather than reproducible predictive ability. Nevertheless, forecasts like these during dynamic non-converging playoff races do help quantify the race if it is understood to be a snapshot in time.

Only preliminary conclusions can be made, since the playoff races are not over yet, and even when they are, a single season is still a pretty small data set. But this playoff forecasting exercise appears to be pointing to a small but significant advantage of DVOA compared to win-only systems in predicting future results.

Playoff predictions, 2006 after week 13

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

Here are this week’s playoff predictions. If you’re a fan of one of the five 7-5 AFC teams or one of the four 6-6 NFC teams, you’ll want to try out the software this week if you haven’t already done so. There are lots and lots of scenarios to analyze and my software automatically analyzes all the tiebreakers for you. It’s playoff madness!

Tomorrow, I’ll post a graphical week-by-week comparison of my forecasts and the DVOA forecasts, starting from week 9 until now.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 85.82 14.18 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 14.18 79.94 5.72 0.16
Buffalo 0.0 4.2 52.86 42.94
Miami 0.0 1.68 41.42 56.9

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 90.06 9.8 0.14 0.0
Cincinnati 9.82 86.7 3.46 0.02
Pittsburgh 0.12 3.38 73.04 23.46
Cleveland 0.0 0.12 23.36 76.52

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.38 0.62 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.62 80.26 18.08 1.04
Tennessee 0.0 17.48 59.12 23.4
Houston 0.0 1.64 22.8 75.56

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 94.58 4.54 0.88 0.0
Denver 3.16 51.08 45.76 0.0
Kansas City 2.26 44.38 53.36 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 87.18 10.88 1.9 0.04
NY Giants 5.82 58.76 31.64 3.78
Philadelphia 6.98 27.56 48.72 16.74
Washington 0.02 2.8 17.74 79.44

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 68.6 30.24 1.16
Green Bay 0.0 31.14 65.96 2.9
Detroit 0.0 0.26 3.8 95.94

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 86.5 11.12 2.38 0.0
Atlanta 3.74 53.52 42.54 0.2
Carolina 9.76 35.36 54.82 0.06
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.26 99.74

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 97.98 1.9 0.12 0.0
St Louis 0.22 38.86 57.48 3.44
San Francisco 1.8 57.32 35.14 5.74
Arizona 0.0 1.92 7.26 90.82

Generated: Tue Dec 05 00:20:05 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 47.86 34.56 11.76 5.2 0.3 0.22 99.9
San Diego 41.5 30.56 17.6 4.92 4.22 0.98 99.78
Baltimore 7.3 21.14 37.78 23.84 3.8 2.74 96.6
New England 3.2 11.9 26.52 44.2 6.36 3.76 95.94
Denver 0.08 0.82 1.4 0.86 29.22 18.36 50.74
Cincinnati 0.04 0.56 1.72 7.5 22.3 20.68 52.8
Kansas City 0.0 0.32 0.94 1.0 8.92 14.42 25.6
NY Jets 0.0 0.04 2.0 12.14 14.38 22.02 50.58
Jacksonville 0.02 0.1 0.28 0.22 10.36 15.6 26.58
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.0 0.28 0.4
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.52 0.58
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.24 0.3
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.12 0.14
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 96.22 3.46 0.3 0.02 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 2.8 35.54 25.2 22.96 6.9 3.88 97.28
Dallas 0.46 30.94 29.46 26.32 6.92 3.62 97.72
Seattle 0.52 28.6 38.08 30.78 0.58 0.48 99.04
NY Giants 0.0 0.78 1.46 3.58 25.82 18.54 50.18
Philadelphia 0.0 0.26 2.32 4.4 15.22 18.2 40.4
Carolina 0.0 0.18 1.68 7.9 12.48 15.04 37.28
Atlanta 0.0 0.24 1.32 2.18 23.36 17.06 44.16
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.16 1.64 1.16 4.42 7.38
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.12 12.22 18.34
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.2 1.08 4.48 5.78
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.34 1.52 1.88
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.54 0.56
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 05 00:20:05 EST 2006

Comparison of DVOA and NFL-Forecast Playoff Predictions, After Week 12

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

Here is this week’s comparison Mike Harris’ playoff predictions  based on DVOA power ratings and my playoff forecasts. The two forecasts are really starting to converge.

 Edited to correct data entry error.

                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
NewEngland    98.70%     88.64        99.30%     94.46
NYJets            1.00%       11.04       12.60%     35.8
Miami              0.10%       0.14          0.90%       2.74
Buffalo            0.00%       0.18          0.60%       4.82
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
Indianapolis     99.80%     99.94        99.9%     99.98
Jacksonville     0.10%       0.06         26.60%    14.84
Houston           0.00%       0             0.00%     0.02
Tennessee       0.00%       0              0.00%      0.1
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
Baltimore         99.30%     95.08       99.90%     98.1
Cincinnati        0.60%       4.9          27.20%     33.12
Pittsburgh        0.00%       0.02        0.10%       0.22
Cleveland        0.00%       0             0.00%       0
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
SanDiego        92.90%     80.76        99.70%     98.32
Denver            4.40%       11.44       74.20%     70.56
KansasCity      2.60%       7.8           55.70%     46.92
Oakland           0.00%       0               0.00%       0
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
NYGiants         19.80%     24.22       75.60%     64.38
Philadelphia     4.50%       3.24         40.70%     17.26
Dallas              75.60%     72.06       97.80%     91.4
Washington     0.00%       0.48           1.70%       5.48
                                                                         
                      Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
Chicago          100.00%   99.94        100.00%   99.98
GreenBay        0.00%       0                2.80%     1.18
Minnesota        0.00%       0.06          11.60%   18.04
Detroit             0.00%       0               0.00%       0
                                                                         
                      Division Championship               Playoff Odds    
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
NewOrleans     75.10%     67.62       92.00%     89.06
Carolina          24.50%     30.66       57.90%     61.6
Atlanta             30.00%     1.72        2.30%     10.48 
TampaBay       0.00%       0              0.00%       0.04
                                                                         
                      Division Championship               Playoff Odds    
Team              DVOA       NFL-F           DVOA       NFL-F
Seattle             83.70%     79.98      88.00%     89.34.96
SanFrancisco  4.10%       14.72          6.00%     25.44
StLouis            12.10%     5.3          22.90%     26.32
Arizona           0.00%       0               0.00%       0.08

NFL playoff predictions 2006, after week 12

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

Things crystalized quite a bit in week 12. We now have a very good idea of 5 of the playoff teams in each conference, although Denver and the Giants are still a little squishy, both in their computer generated playoff odds and in their on the field play. So in each conference we have one, maybe two, playoff spots up from grabs. Those last slots probably won’t be firmed up until the last week of the season. Plus the teams that are likely playoff qualifiers are still slugging it out for seeding positions that yield home field advantage and first round byes.

Edited to correct data entry error 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 88.64 11.1 0.26 0.0
NY Jets 11.04 67.84 17.52 3.6
Buffalo 0.18 13.28 51.44 35.1
Miami 0.14 7.78 30.78 61.3

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 95.08 4.92 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 4.9 90.74 4.32 0.04
Pittsburgh 0.02 4.12 74.04 21.82
Cleveland 0.0 0.22 21.64 78.14

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.94 0.06 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.06 81.1 16.38 2.46
Tennessee 0.0 14.76 51.32 33.92
Houston 0.0 4.08 32.3 63.62

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 80.76 14.82 4.42 0.0
Denver 11.44 45.82 42.74 0.0
Kansas City 7.8 39.36 52.84 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 72.06 22.9 4.4 0.64
NY Giants 24.22 58.34 14.4 3.04
Philadelphia 3.24 13.14 48.2 35.42
Washington 0.48 5.62 33.0 60.9

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 99.94 0.06 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.06 61.8 36.24 1.9
Green Bay 0.0 37.62 58.94 3.44
Detroit 0.0 0.52 4.82 94.66

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 67.62 30.42 1.96 0.0
Carolina 30.66 48.5 20.68 0.16
Atlanta 1.72 20.98 72.46 4.84
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.1 4.9 95.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 79.98 16.28 3.74 0.0
St Louis 5.3 47.44 46.54 0.72
San Francisco 14.72 36.1 48.12 1.06
Arizona 0.0 0.18 1.6 98.22

Generated: Mon Dec 04 21:24:30 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 67.96 20.16 9.08 2.74 0.02 0.02 99.98
San Diego 16.48 28.86 27.78 7.64 13.58 3.98 98.32
Baltimore 13.04 34.74 31.04 16.26 1.5 1.52 98.1
New England 1.98 9.5 23.0 54.16 2.6 3.22 94.46
Denver 0.4 4.54 4.5 2.0 35.0 24.12 70.56
Kansas City 0.1 1.84 2.4 3.46 19.92 19.2 46.92
Cincinnati 0.04 0.3 0.94 3.62 12.3 15.92 33.12
NY Jets 0.0 0.06 1.2 9.78 8.1 16.66 35.8
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.0 5.06 9.72 14.84
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.18 1.38 3.26 4.82
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.54 2.06 2.74
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.2 0.22
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 93.44 5.32 0.98 0.2 0.04 0.0 99.98
New Orleans 4.28 24.36 23.76 15.22 13.62 7.82 89.06
Dallas 1.26 36.38 19.68 14.74 12.74 6.6 91.4
Seattle 0.66 19.74 29.46 30.12 4.2 5.16 89.34
NY Giants 0.26 7.8 7.36 8.8 22.72 17.44 64.38
Carolina 0.04 4.64 11.04 14.94 18.04 12.9 61.6
San Francisco 0.0 0.64 4.9 9.18 3.62 7.1 25.44
Philadelphia 0.02 0.52 1.36 1.34 4.78 9.24 17.26
St Louis 0.02 0.42 1.02 3.84 7.28 13.74 26.32
Minnesota 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.02 7.16 10.82 18.04
Atlanta 0.0 0.14 0.32 1.26 3.94 4.82 10.48
Washington 0.0 0.04 0.1 0.34 1.68 3.32 5.48
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.18 1.0 1.18
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Mon Dec 04 21:24:29 EST 2006

Comparison of DVOA and NFL-Forecast Playoff Predictions, after week 11

Tuesday, November 21st, 2006

I’m going to do these comparisons between Mike Harris’ playoff predictions  based on DVOA power ratings and my playoff forecasts for the remainder of the season. I think they will provide a basis for determining the predictive value of the DVOA based power ratings in comparison to power ratings based on wins and losses only.

 I’ve decided to use the playoff predictions based on the standard DVOA, rather than the Donovan McNabb adjusted version. Every team suffers injuries, and I don’t think you can consider an injury to one player in the whole league on an ad hoc basis. I also discovered that in week 10 I had mistakenly entered a Viking win over Green Bay, that was making my projections for the Vikings overly optimistic and to a lesser extent, penalizing the chances of the Packers. I fixed that in this weeks projections, but I haven’t gone back and fixed week 10 projections.

                         Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
NewEngland      97.80%      89.76           98.40%      94.18
NYJets              1.90%       10                8.40%       28.48
Miami               0.10%       0.14             0.40%       1.32
Buffalo              0.00%       0.1               0.30%       2.36
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
Indianapolis       95.70%      99.34           99.50%      99.94
Jacksonville       4.20%       0.66             59.20%      32.16
Houston            0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.14
Tennessee        0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.02
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
Baltimore          98.50%      96.64           99.10%      98
Cincinnati         1.10%       2.62             10.20%      18.94
Pittsburgh         0.30%       0.74             1.80%       1.76
Cleveland          0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.24
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
SanDiego          87.00%      62.6             99.60%      96.82
Denver              11.80%      31.96           88.60%      90.72
KansasCity       1.10%       5.44             33.70%      34.92
Oakland            0.00%       0                  0.00%       0
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
NYGiants          43.20%      62.2             89.40%      82.2
Philadelphia      8.00%       29.46           54.90%      27.92
Dallas               48.60%      8.34             93.60%      61.42
Washington       0.00%       0                  0.50%       0.54
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
Chicago            100.00%    99.94           100.00%    99.98
GreenBay         0.00%       0.04             7.50%       2.72
Minnesota         0.00%       0.02             4.60%       14.9
Detroit              0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.02
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
NewOrleans       51.50%      43.04           70.20%      75.84
Carolina            44.60%      43.84           62.50%      70.46
Atlanta              3.80%       13.12           7.60%       29.66
TampaBay        0.00%       0                  0.00%       0.42
                                                                             
                        Division Championship   Playoff Odds
Team                DVOA       NFL-F          DVOA       NFL-F
Seattle              69.60%      72.32           72.50%      82.16
SanFrancisco    11.00%      21.64           12.60%      33.42
StLouis             19.20%      6.04             23.40%      18.34
Arizona             0.00%       0                  0.00%       0

Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 11

Tuesday, November 21st, 2006

 Edited to fix a week 10 data entry error.

 Not much changed this week in the AFC.

 In the NFC, everything has opened up quite a bit. Tiebreakers will play a huge role in the NFC race. If you are a fan of one of these teams, I encourage you to use the software on my main site to do scenario analysis.

If there is a particular analysis you’d like to see leave a comment and I’ll see what I can do.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 89.76 9.86 0.38 0.0
NY Jets 10.0 72.76 14.42 2.82
Buffalo 0.1 10.94 50.66 38.3
Miami 0.14 6.44 34.54 58.88

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 96.64 3.2 0.14 0.02
Cincinnati 2.62 75.56 19.46 2.36
Pittsburgh 0.74 18.24 61.46 19.56
Cleveland 0.0 3.0 18.94 78.06

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.34 0.66 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.66 92.3 6.24 0.8
Houston 0.0 3.38 50.84 45.78
Tennessee 0.0 3.66 42.92 53.42

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 62.6 30.54 6.86 0.0
Denver 31.96 52.06 15.98 0.0
Kansas City 5.44 17.4 77.04 0.12
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.12 99.88

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 62.2 29.6 7.94 0.26
Dallas 29.46 43.76 25.04 1.74
Philadelphia 8.34 25.52 55.38 10.76
Washington 0.0 1.12 11.64 87.24

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 99.94 0.06 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.02 56.6 37.56 5.82
Green Bay 0.04 41.36 51.62 6.98
Detroit 0.0 1.98 10.82 87.2

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 43.04 38.92 17.86 0.18
Carolina 43.84 35.02 20.72 0.42
Atlanta 13.12 25.72 56.52 4.64
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.34 4.9 94.76

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 72.32 22.54 5.12 0.02
San Francisco 21.64 42.1 34.88 1.38
St Louis 6.04 35.02 57.0 1.94
Arizona 0.0 0.34 3.0 96.66

Generated: Tue Nov 21 18:36:34 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 72.88 16.6 7.6 2.26 0.36 0.24 99.94
Baltimore 12.86 33.82 30.9 19.06 0.54 0.82 98.0
San Diego 9.5 24.06 23.04 6.0 25.96 8.26 96.82
Denver 2.96 15.74 10.34 2.92 44.82 13.94 90.72
New England 1.58 7.96 24.82 55.4 0.96 3.46 94.18
Kansas City 0.08 1.24 1.7 2.42 10.84 18.64 34.92
Jacksonville 0.1 0.28 0.24 0.04 9.38 22.12 32.16
Cincinnati 0.04 0.16 0.46 1.96 3.66 12.66 18.94
NY Jets 0.0 0.14 0.8 9.06 3.04 15.44 28.48
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.68 0.08 0.94 1.76
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.06 0.32 1.94 2.36
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.04 1.14 1.32
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.24
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 94.78 4.38 0.68 0.1 0.04 0.0 99.98
New Orleans 2.6 20.18 13.5 6.76 20.32 12.48 75.84
NY Giants 0.8 22.04 19.22 20.14 10.66 9.34 82.2
Carolina 0.84 16.96 14.38 11.66 14.44 12.18 70.46
Seattle 0.54 17.14 27.42 27.22 3.62 6.22 82.16
Dallas 0.36 12.78 8.3 8.02 19.18 12.78 61.42
Atlanta 0.04 2.54 4.38 6.16 7.48 9.06 29.66
San Francisco 0.0 1.96 6.4 13.28 4.82 6.96 33.42
Philadelphia 0.04 1.76 3.84 2.7 8.36 11.22 27.92
St Louis 0.0 0.24 1.86 3.94 3.84 8.46 18.34
Green Bay 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.72 1.96 2.72
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 6.22 8.66 14.9
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.3 0.54
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 0.36 0.42
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 21 18:36:33 EST 2006