Archive for the ‘Weeky Predictions’ Category

Comparison of Football Outsiders DVOA and NFL-Forecast Playoff Predictions after week 10, 2006

Wednesday, November 15th, 2006

Football Outsiders (or more precisely, FO reader Mike Harris) has started doing playoff prediction simulations similar to those I have been doing here, except based on the DVOA power ratings.  Football Outsiders uses extensive play-by-play data for their power ratings. I use just the opposite approach, using only the out come of each game (won-loss, not score) and where the game was played as the basis of my power ratings. I am a frequent reader of Football Outsiders and have a lot of respect for their work. I’ve considered adding DVOA power ratings as an alternate power ranking scheme to my software, and building a win prediction model from the DVOA ratings, but the job thing has kept me pretty busy this fall. So I’m glad Mr. Harris has taken that off my to do list.

I thought it would be worthwhile to publish a side by side comparion. It is very interesting how closely the predictions based on the two power ranking methods compare, although there are some very significant differences. The difference in prediction for the Denver-SD division race is particularly interesting. SD is clearly better based on DVOA; watching the two teams play it is easy to see why. Denver seldom gets any style points for the games they have won this season. Yet my power rating system is more impressed by Denver because they have beaten three team with winning records (New England, Baltimore, Kansas City) while San Diego hasn’t beaten any. And that is the thing about Denver, they consistently find a way to win. San Diego on the other hand found a way to lose to the Ravens, a game they probably should have won. To some extent, I think that wins and losses captures some of the intangibles that DVOA or other statistical measures aren’t able to quantify. I’m not arguing that W-L is a better predictor of future wins than DVOA; rather, I think the two approaches are complementary. Furthermore, I feel a little more comfortable with some of the DVOA-based NFC predictions. In particular, Minnesota is looking very shaky after their fast start and San Francisco’s high power rating this week is an anomaly due to the large variances in my power ratings. The SF bug is something that I know how to fix, but don’t have time to code this season. On the other hand, it will be interesting to see if Dallas and Philadelphia do as well in the playoff race as projected by DVOA.

Very cool, Mike Harris and Football Outsiders, and welcome to the playoff forecasting business.

Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 10

Tuesday, November 14th, 2006

Barring a catastrophic collapse. five of six playoff qualifiers have been determined in the AFC: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Denver and San Diego. Four team are in the thick of the hunt for the final spot, in order of likelihood: Jets, Jags, Chiefs and Bengals.

 In the NFC, Chicago has about a 90% chance of taking the #1 seed. The Saints, Giants, and Seahawks look to be playoff teams. After that it is wide open. In order of likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs, the Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, Panthers, Falcons, 49ers and Rams are still in contention.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 81.18 18.1 0.7 0.02
NY Jets 18.4 70.6 9.64 1.36
Buffalo 0.16 5.7 45.48 48.66
Miami 0.26 5.6 44.18 49.96

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 99.0 0.94 0.06 0.0
Cincinnati 0.78 63.98 26.5 8.74
Cleveland 0.1 19.76 39.66 40.48
Pittsburgh 0.12 15.32 33.78 50.78

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.88 0.12 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.12 81.42 16.94 1.52
Houston 0.0 16.34 63.88 19.78
Tennessee 0.0 2.12 19.18 78.7

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 61.14 34.98 3.88 0.0
San Diego 37.18 54.78 8.0 0.04
Kansas City 1.68 10.16 82.02 6.14
Oakland 0.0 0.08 6.1 93.82

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 81.3 14.46 3.68 0.56
Dallas 10.04 37.3 39.86 12.8
Philadelphia 8.22 42.54 34.76 14.48
Washington 0.44 5.7 21.7 72.16

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 98.7 1.3 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 1.26 89.28 9.02 0.44
Green Bay 0.04 8.38 72.3 19.28
Detroit 0.0 1.04 18.68 80.28

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 73.8 19.98 6.18 0.04
Carolina 13.22 38.44 47.44 0.9
Atlanta 12.98 41.38 44.0 1.64
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.2 2.38 97.42

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 84.02 13.4 2.58 0.0
San Francisco 12.16 45.2 40.58 2.06
St Louis 3.82 40.9 53.04 2.24
Arizona 0.0 0.5 3.8 95.7

Generated: Tue Nov 14 00:52:57 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 85.88 9.96 3.76 0.28 0.02 0.08 99.98
Baltimore 7.94 38.2 41.22 11.64 0.22 0.26 99.48
Denver 3.98 34.62 20.02 2.52 31.42 5.0 97.56
San Diego 2.06 13.72 18.74 2.66 45.74 11.04 93.96
New England 0.12 2.98 14.24 63.84 1.56 6.84 89.58
Kansas City 0.0 0.42 0.6 0.66 5.9 14.86 22.44
NY Jets 0.0 0.06 1.12 17.22 3.82 18.06 40.28
Cincinnati 0.02 0.02 0.14 0.6 0.78 6.72 8.28
Jacksonville 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.0 9.66 27.76 37.54
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.06 0.1 2.52 2.72
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.14 0.16 1.04 1.36
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.26 0.04 1.22 1.52
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.04 0.56 0.72
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.68 4.18
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.34 0.38
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 88.52 8.68 1.32 0.18 1.18 0.12 100.0
New Orleans 6.42 29.7 22.3 15.38 8.14 6.54 88.48
NY Giants 2.54 30.34 24.58 23.84 4.54 5.08 90.92
Seattle 1.44 20.16 32.74 29.68 2.04 3.22 89.28
Minnesota 0.7 0.34 0.18 0.04 36.14 19.54 56.94
Dallas 0.18 2.9 3.34 3.62 11.28 14.7 36.02
Carolina 0.02 2.86 4.28 6.06 7.48 10.38 31.08
Atlanta 0.06 1.96 4.02 6.94 7.28 11.0 31.26
Philadelphia 0.08 1.7 2.94 3.5 12.16 14.0 34.38
San Francisco 0.02 0.88 3.06 8.2 2.72 5.86 20.74
St Louis 0.02 0.42 1.16 2.22 5.96 6.84 16.62
Washington 0.0 0.06 0.06 0.32 0.84 2.04 3.32
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.22 0.66 0.92
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.02
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 14 00:52:57 EST 2006

Playoff predictions 2006, after week 9

Tuesday, November 7th, 2006

In the AFC, three of the division winners all but determined: New England, Indianapolis, and Baltimore. In the Wild Card race, one of positions will almost certainly go to the second place finisher in the AFC West. The last Wild Card spot is between Jacksonville, Cincinnati, the Jets and the 3rd place AFC West team. In the AFC, you better have 10 wins if you are even thinking about the playoffs, 11 if you want to be very sure, and 12 if you don’t want to think about tiebreakers.

 

In the NFC, the Bears and Giants are the clear cut favorites to win their division. Many pundits predicted that the East race would go down to the wire, so the Giants’ large lead is a bit of a surprise. After that, New Orleans, Seattle, and Atlanta all have a greater than 70% chance of qualifying for the playoffs, but those chances include both division championships and wild card chances. After that, things get pretty muddy, with Minnesota, St. Louis, Carolina, Dallas and Philadelphia all in the race. Nine wins looks like they are probably enough wins, but you need 10 if you want to be safe, and 11 to absolutely guarantee it.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.08 2.88 0.04 0.0
NY Jets 2.78 75.0 18.7 3.52
Buffalo 0.12 18.3 58.44 23.14
Miami 0.02 3.82 22.82 73.34

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 90.22 9.5 0.28 0.0
Cincinnati 9.62 83.26 6.86 0.26
Cleveland 0.08 5.02 57.22 37.68
Pittsburgh 0.08 2.22 35.64 62.06

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 98.56 1.44 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 1.42 93.6 4.48 0.5
Houston 0.02 3.42 54.7 41.86
Tennessee 0.0 1.54 40.82 57.64

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 47.94 31.48 20.44 0.14
San Diego 36.72 35.9 27.24 0.14
Kansas City 15.34 32.6 51.2 0.86
Oakland 0.0 0.02 1.12 98.86

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 91.32 7.1 1.38 0.2
Dallas 4.26 41.7 37.96 16.08
Philadelphia 3.84 38.54 33.26 24.36
Washington 0.58 12.66 27.4 59.36

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 97.1 2.84 0.06 0.0
Minnesota 2.74 75.56 17.84 3.86
Green Bay 0.16 17.58 54.76 27.5
Detroit 0.0 4.02 27.34 68.64

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 60.16 30.94 8.84 0.06
Atlanta 33.02 47.98 18.4 0.6
Carolina 6.82 20.9 68.62 3.66
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.18 4.14 95.68

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 82.64 14.82 2.52 0.02
St Louis 14.32 64.32 20.56 0.8
San Francisco 3.04 20.08 66.16 10.72
Arizona 0.0 0.78 10.76 88.46

Generated: Mon Nov 06 23:29:34 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 78.86 12.16 5.5 2.04 1.04 0.28 99.88
Baltimore 7.0 22.42 25.34 35.46 1.82 2.44 94.48
New England 6.14 26.02 32.4 32.52 0.36 0.6 98.04
Denver 4.04 21.9 15.28 6.72 23.76 15.08 86.78
San Diego 2.84 11.96 12.96 8.96 25.42 17.54 79.68
Kansas City 0.48 4.16 5.96 4.74 20.62 23.72 59.68
Jacksonville 0.36 0.48 0.26 0.32 17.86 19.58 38.86
Cincinnati 0.28 0.88 1.76 6.7 6.88 13.32 29.82
NY Jets 0.0 0.02 0.5 2.26 1.88 5.2 9.86
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.0 0.3 0.38
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.38 0.4
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.34 1.36 1.82
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.0 0.08
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.14 0.16
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.04
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 55.96 24.78 11.76 4.6 1.12 1.1 99.32
NY Giants 22.84 24.08 21.08 23.32 1.58 1.88 94.78
New Orleans 13.16 21.94 17.58 7.48 20.44 9.3 89.9
Seattle 3.88 14.86 26.92 36.98 2.44 3.46 88.54
Atlanta 2.7 9.06 12.42 8.84 23.12 15.7 71.84
Minnesota 0.62 0.84 0.88 0.4 22.88 20.78 46.4
St Louis 0.42 1.4 3.68 8.82 7.02 10.68 32.02
Carolina 0.22 1.72 2.44 2.44 7.32 12.36 26.5
Dallas 0.1 0.88 1.2 2.08 7.02 10.68 21.96
Philadelphia 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.04 5.32 8.82 17.98
Washington 0.0 0.1 0.16 0.32 0.9 1.94 3.42
San Francisco 0.0 0.04 0.36 2.64 0.42 1.16 4.62
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.04 0.28 1.44 1.88
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.46 0.56
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.24 0.28
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Mon Nov 06 23:29:34 EST 2006

 

 

Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 8

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

A couple notes:

 There is a lot of play in the power ratings this week, which means a lot of play in the predictions. I know how to fix this, but probably won’t get to it for a while.

 Despite this, I’m confident in saying that at least one of the AFC wild cards will come out of the West. Big losers in the playoff race this week were the Steelers and the Jets. They effectively drop from the race. Not to say they can’t get back in it, but the odds are stacked strongly against them.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.06 1.92 0.02 0.0
NY Jets 1.92 81.32 16.4 0.36
Buffalo 0.02 16.4 77.06 6.52
Miami 0.0 0.36 6.52 93.12

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 83.86 15.1 1.0 0.04
Cincinnati 15.62 74.5 9.0 0.88
Cleveland 0.28 6.16 49.72 43.84
Pittsburgh 0.24 4.24 40.28 55.24

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.52 0.48 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.48 86.92 11.28 1.32
Tennessee 0.0 10.68 60.36 28.96
Houston 0.0 1.92 28.36 69.72

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 59.22 28.24 12.5 0.04
San Diego 28.44 40.6 30.56 0.4
Kansas City 12.34 31.04 55.04 1.58
Oakland 0.0 0.12 1.9 97.98

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 90.24 8.4 1.26 0.1
Dallas 7.2 54.44 29.14 9.22
Philadelphia 2.0 26.72 42.14 29.14
Washington 0.56 10.44 27.46 61.54

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 94.46 5.46 0.08 0.0
Minnesota 5.32 81.18 12.42 1.08
Green Bay 0.22 12.2 66.94 20.64
Detroit 0.0 1.16 20.56 78.28

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 53.34 38.6 7.24 0.82
New Orleans 43.0 44.98 11.12 0.9
Carolina 3.48 14.56 65.02 16.94
Tampa Bay 0.18 1.86 16.62 81.34

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 71.44 27.86 0.7 0.0
St Louis 28.4 69.36 2.08 0.16
San Francisco 0.14 2.34 63.92 33.6
Arizona 0.02 0.44 33.3 66.24

Generated: Tue Oct 31 00:21:13 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 73.62 19.34 5.24 1.32 0.38 0.1 100.0
New England 20.1 35.9 26.9 15.16 0.4 0.58 99.04
Baltimore 3.0 14.5 24.14 42.22 3.18 4.16 91.2
Denver 2.24 21.2 23.92 11.86 20.48 11.26 90.96
San Diego 0.84 6.16 10.34 11.1 25.84 18.02 72.3
Kansas City 0.12 1.84 5.38 5.0 18.94 19.4 50.68
Cincinnati 0.0 0.82 3.26 11.54 8.62 14.1 38.34
Jacksonville 0.08 0.1 0.16 0.14 15.28 17.14 32.9
NY Jets 0.0 0.14 0.62 1.16 5.72 11.64 19.28
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.22 0.06 0.14 0.44
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.28 0.28 0.84 1.4
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.76 2.06 2.84
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.36 0.4
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.08
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 61.04 21.2 8.64 3.58 3.52 1.22 99.2
NY Giants 18.84 26.26 22.06 23.08 1.56 2.34 94.14
New Orleans 6.68 14.26 13.18 8.88 17.3 16.54 76.84
Atlanta 5.84 16.24 16.94 14.32 13.3 13.18 79.82
Seattle 2.82 14.16 25.04 29.42 4.06 6.78 82.28
Minnesota 2.74 1.22 1.02 0.34 39.32 20.14 64.78
St Louis 1.48 4.12 8.92 13.88 8.6 12.82 49.82
Dallas 0.38 1.72 2.22 2.88 7.2 12.44 26.84
Carolina 0.12 0.56 1.3 1.5 2.14 5.52 11.14
Washington 0.04 0.04 0.1 0.38 0.46 1.46 2.48
Philadelphia 0.0 0.18 0.46 1.36 1.56 4.96 8.52
Green Bay 0.02 0.02 0.08 0.1 0.74 1.66 2.62
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.24 0.74 1.16
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.0 0.06 0.2
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14

Generated: Tue Oct 31 00:21:13 EST 2006

Playoff predictions 2006, after week 7

Tuesday, October 24th, 2006

Playoff prediction season is here. We’ll definitely have an article or two this week.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.54 2.44 0.0 0.02
NY Jets 2.44 89.52 7.98 0.06
Buffalo 0.02 7.96 85.74 6.28
Miami 0.0 0.08 6.28 93.64

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 51.68 44.2 4.04 0.08
Baltimore 46.72 45.0 7.58 0.7
Pittsburgh 1.46 9.02 61.08 28.44
Cleveland 0.14 1.78 27.3 70.78

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.18 0.8 0.02 0.0
Jacksonville 0.68 77.18 21.1 1.04
Houston 0.14 21.36 71.3 7.2
Tennessee 0.0 0.66 7.58 91.76

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 79.54 16.26 4.2 0.0
San Diego 15.4 53.4 31.06 0.14
Kansas City 5.06 30.32 63.86 0.76
Oakland 0.0 0.02 0.88 99.1

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 85.72 12.32 1.86 0.1
Philadelphia 11.8 61.16 21.04 6.0
Dallas 2.26 19.66 54.18 23.9
Washington 0.22 6.86 22.92 70.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 92.14 7.84 0.02 0.0
Minnesota 7.86 89.8 2.26 0.08
Green Bay 0.0 2.16 77.3 20.54
Detroit 0.0 0.2 20.42 79.38

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 52.0 29.36 17.84 0.8
Atlanta 30.36 38.86 29.06 1.72
Carolina 17.52 30.82 47.58 4.08
Tampa Bay 0.12 0.96 5.52 93.4

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 86.78 12.98 0.24 0.0
St Louis 13.06 82.34 3.94 0.66
San Francisco 0.12 3.08 57.0 39.8
Arizona 0.04 1.6 38.82 59.54

Generated: Tue Oct 24 00:24:55 EDT 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 52.7 25.42 16.06 5.0 0.38 0.36 99.92
New England 24.6 32.34 30.08 10.52 0.8 0.7 99.04
Denver 19.5 28.2 22.24 9.6 10.78 5.06 95.38
Baltimore 1.2 5.02 10.96 29.54 12.16 12.62 71.5
Cincinnati 1.0 4.94 11.4 34.34 9.14 11.58 72.4
San Diego 0.78 2.96 6.08 5.58 24.6 18.48 58.48
Kansas City 0.06 0.68 1.92 2.4 12.68 12.92 30.66
Jacksonville 0.12 0.2 0.22 0.14 14.78 15.76 31.22
NY Jets 0.04 0.2 0.86 1.34 12.3 16.52 31.26
Houston 0.0 0.04 0.06 0.04 1.24 3.06 4.44
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.36 0.62 1.64 3.72
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.12 0.2 0.34 0.68
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.32 0.96 1.3
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 71.82 14.38 4.46 1.48 6.24 1.16 99.54
NY Giants 8.86 18.16 23.58 35.12 1.3 2.98 90.0
Seattle 5.64 31.46 31.44 18.24 1.64 4.04 92.46
New Orleans 5.64 18.52 15.4 12.44 7.76 15.14 74.9
Minnesota 5.08 2.0 0.68 0.1 59.02 16.7 83.58
Atlanta 1.76 7.12 9.82 11.66 7.74 17.1 55.2
Carolina 0.48 4.3 6.46 6.28 4.54 15.44 37.5
St Louis 0.66 2.66 3.94 5.8 7.24 12.16 32.46
Philadelphia 0.06 1.22 3.6 6.92 3.7 11.18 26.68
Dallas 0.0 0.18 0.54 1.54 0.64 2.76 5.66
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.18 0.04 0.62 0.88
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.02 0.42 0.56
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.02 0.04 0.18
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.04 0.08
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.22 0.32
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Oct 24 00:24:55 EDT 2006

Playoff predictions, 2006 after week 6

Tuesday, October 17th, 2006

Thanks to Steel-City Mike for setting up automatic HTML generation, even though his Steelers destroyed my Chiefs. The races are definitely taking shape. Hopefully, I’ll have time for an article this week.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 93.44 6.1 0.44 0.02
NY Jets 5.46 70.1 21.7 2.74
Buffalo 1.08 21.96 62.9 14.06
Miami 0.02 1.84 14.96 83.18

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 62.2 26.42 10.02 1.36
Cincinnati 28.42 44.46 22.66 4.46
Pittsburgh 8.66 23.94 45.56 21.84
Cleveland 0.72 5.18 21.76 72.34

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 92.1 7.86 0.04 0.0
Jacksonville 7.9 86.5 5.34 0.26
Houston 0.0 5.08 72.3 22.62
Tennessee 0.0 0.56 22.32 77.12

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 57.5 37.74 4.76 0.0
San Diego 40.48 48.78 10.64 0.1
Kansas City 2.02 13.42 80.64 3.92
Oakland 0.0 0.06 3.96 95.98

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 36.9 32.76 23.28 7.06
Dallas 32.84 31.74 27.84 7.58
NY Giants 28.36 29.88 32.62 9.14
Washington 1.9 5.62 16.26 76.22

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 96.66 3.32 0.02 0.0
Minnesota 3.32 87.22 8.24 1.22
Green Bay 0.02 6.38 55.18 38.42
Detroit 0.0 3.08 36.56 60.36

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 49.78 34.76 15.06 0.4
Carolina 38.8 38.42 21.5 1.28
Atlanta 11.32 26.16 56.64 5.88
Tampa Bay 0.1 0.66 6.8 92.44

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 90.8 9.06 0.14 0.0
St Louis 9.12 86.88 3.8 0.2
San Francisco 0.06 3.36 63.78 32.8
Arizona 0.02 0.7 32.28 67.0

Generated: Tue Oct 17 00:37:50 EDT 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 46.18 24.24 14.98 6.7 4.38 1.96 98.44
New England 23.96 26.86 27.74 14.88 1.46 1.78 96.68
Denver 17.24 20.48 13.6 6.18 20.94 10.18 88.62
San Diego 6.12 12.7 12.88 8.78 21.16 15.92 77.56
Baltimore 2.86 9.32 18.04 31.98 4.28 7.96 74.44
Jacksonville 2.6 2.28 2.0 1.02 28.36 22.92 59.18
Cincinnati 0.76 2.56 5.62 19.48 4.9 9.9 43.22
NY Jets 0.14 0.68 2.12 2.52 6.28 12.68 24.42
Pittsburgh 0.06 0.44 1.62 6.54 1.64 4.98 15.28
Kansas City 0.06 0.32 0.76 0.88 4.0 6.14 12.16
Buffalo 0.02 0.1 0.48 0.48 1.76 3.46 6.3
Cleveland 0.0 0.02 0.16 0.54 0.48 0.9 2.1
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.36 1.04 1.4
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.14 0.16
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 66.8 18.6 8.58 2.68 1.82 0.76 99.24
Seattle 20.64 42.82 20.06 7.28 3.86 2.44 97.1
New Orleans 4.88 12.66 18.52 13.72 13.3 11.7 74.78
Carolina 1.64 7.78 15.78 13.6 11.22 11.54 61.56
Dallas 1.5 4.78 10.32 16.24 7.16 8.54 48.54
St Louis 1.26 2.64 2.68 2.54 18.72 16.82 44.66
Philadelphia 0.88 5.04 10.98 20.0 7.62 10.44 54.96
Minnesota 1.18 1.12 0.62 0.4 25.1 18.08 46.5
NY Giants 0.86 3.22 8.14 16.14 5.2 8.9 42.46
Atlanta 0.36 1.32 3.88 5.76 5.48 8.52 25.32
Washington 0.0 0.02 0.4 1.48 0.28 1.38 3.56
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.32 0.5
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.24 0.36
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.16
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.06 0.08
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.14 0.22

Generated: Tue Oct 17 00:37:50 EDT 2006

Playoff predictions after week 5, 2006

Monday, October 9th, 2006

This is the first week that game results from this season have been factored into the power ratings. Predictions from previous weeks were based only on preseason power ratings. As a result there are some big changes in the playoff odds this week compared to last. I view this week’s predictions as more accurate. Right now, the power ratings are an equal weight between pre-season expectations and results this far in the season. Each week the contribution of the preseason expectations will decrease until week 9, when the power rating will be calculated 100% from results this season. The power ratings and playoff probabilities will continue to have large swings for about 2 more weeks. It’s still to early to count anyone out. But teams like the Steelers and Carolina need to string together a few wins to regain the high rankings they had at the beginning of the season. My software probably underestimates their chances.

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Playoff Predictions Week 4 2006

Monday, October 2nd, 2006

This will be the last week that the predictions will be based on preseason power ratings. I didn’t post an article last week, but I’ll defeinitely post one this week. Chicago displaces Seattle as the favorite to take the number 1 seed in the NFC, based on their huge victory Sunday night. They now own the tiebreaker over the Seahawks, should the two teams end up tied for the best record in the NFC.

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NFL Playoff Predictions 2006 Week 3

Tuesday, September 26th, 2006

Here are the latest playoff odds after week 3. We are still seeing some large swings from week to week.

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NFL Playoff Predictions Week 2 2006

Tuesday, September 19th, 2006

These playoff predictions are still based on the preseason power ratings. We are still at least two weeks away from being able to have reliable power ratings based on games actually played. Don’t read too much into these yet.

 Column to appear later in the week.

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