Archive for October, 2010

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 7

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 47.7 31.854 20.404 0.042
NY Jets 33.2 36.298 30.456 0.046
Miami 19.1 31.842 48.842 0.216
Buffalo 0.0 0.0060 0.298 99.696

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 94.84 5.1 0.054 0.0060
Baltimore 5.084 83.366 9.744 1.806
Cleveland 0.048 6.32 50.814 42.818
Cincinnati 0.028 5.214 39.388 55.37

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 49.818 31.954 17.9 0.328
Tennessee 30.086 34.798 34.376 0.74
Houston 20.066 32.994 44.752 2.188
Jacksonville 0.03 0.254 2.972 96.744

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 85.33 14.03 0.598 0.042
San Diego 14.286 79.672 5.416 0.626
Denver 0.268 4.412 47.914 47.406
Oakland 0.116 1.886 46.072 51.926

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 82.51 13.61 3.646 0.234
Washington 9.384 44.824 39.038 6.754
Philadelphia 7.95 37.24 41.758 13.052
Dallas 0.156 4.326 15.558 79.96

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 64.016 29.804 5.728 0.452
Chicago 30.41 49.01 18.352 2.228
Minnesota 5.294 18.944 57.696 18.066
Detroit 0.28 2.242 18.224 79.254

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 72.678 19.56 6.99 0.772
New Orleans 11.328 41.586 40.892 6.194
Tampa Bay 15.662 36.534 41.426 6.378
Carolina 0.332 2.32 10.692 86.656

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 73.798 17.744 6.52 1.938
Arizona 11.076 31.722 31.518 25.684
San Francisco 7.062 27.846 30.842 34.25
St Louis 8.064 22.688 31.12 38.128

Generated: Wed Oct 27 17:27:19 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 77.34 12.328 4.024 1.148 3.946 0.746 99.532
Kansas City 6.644 26.112 27.364 25.21 2.0 3.132 90.462
Indianapolis 5.642 19.982 14.812 9.382 12.542 10.672 73.032
New England 4.118 13.728 15.194 14.66 10.14 10.326 68.166
NY Jets 1.676 7.302 10.768 13.454 6.972 10.006 50.178
Baltimore 2.218 1.492 0.904 0.47 26.998 17.976 50.058
Houston 1.3 6.322 6.26 6.184 11.348 11.808 43.222
Tennessee 0.666 7.252 9.674 12.494 6.34 9.586 46.012
Miami 0.304 3.194 6.41 9.192 7.112 9.602 35.814
San Diego 0.086 2.266 4.532 7.402 11.64 14.042 39.968
Cleveland 0.0040 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.568 1.178 1.794
Cincinnati 0.0020 0.0060 0.0060 0.014 0.354 0.766 1.148
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.248 0.024 0.06 0.352
Oakland 0.0 0.0020 0.012 0.102 0.01 0.05 0.176
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.026 0.0060 0.05 0.086
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 58.704 17.232 5.498 1.076 10.502 3.81 96.822
Atlanta 15.716 31.782 18.438 6.742 5.866 7.004 85.548
Green Bay 10.12 17.308 25.18 11.408 6.39 7.248 77.654
Seattle 3.43 9.14 19.152 42.076 0.39 1.028 75.216
Washington 3.896 3.506 1.618 0.364 23.192 17.818 50.394
Philadelphia 3.332 2.808 1.5 0.31 20.946 17.41 46.306
Tampa Bay 2.066 6.694 5.028 1.874 10.78 12.95 39.392
New Orleans 1.414 4.71 3.696 1.508 12.986 15.532 39.846
Chicago 1.098 5.708 14.214 9.39 5.368 9.252 45.03
Minnesota 0.154 0.628 2.584 1.928 1.562 3.042 9.898
Arizona 0.024 0.188 1.332 9.532 0.346 1.058 12.48
St Louis 0.022 0.166 0.96 6.916 0.2 0.642 8.906
Dallas 0.024 0.046 0.07 0.016 1.196 2.146 3.498
San Francisco 0.0 0.02 0.462 6.58 0.054 0.194 7.31
Carolina 0.0 0.048 0.166 0.118 0.126 0.53 0.988
Detroit 0.0 0.016 0.102 0.162 0.096 0.336 0.712

Generated: Wed Oct 27 17:27:19 EDT 2010

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2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 6

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 41.536 33.576 24.802 0.086
Miami 35.916 34.216 29.652 0.216
New England 22.544 32.172 44.96 0.324
Buffalo 0.0040 0.036 0.586 99.374

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 77.586 21.406 0.984 0.024
Baltimore 21.858 70.614 6.934 0.594
Cincinnati 0.508 6.468 62.024 31.0
Cleveland 0.048 1.512 30.058 68.382

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 54.466 31.476 13.164 0.894
Houston 31.28 40.358 25.252 3.11
Tennessee 14.056 26.778 52.592 6.574
Jacksonville 0.198 1.388 8.992 89.422

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 71.628 24.464 3.818 0.09
San Diego 25.364 62.414 11.936 0.286
Denver 2.982 12.828 74.148 10.042
Oakland 0.026 0.294 10.098 89.582

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 69.718 19.35 8.114 2.818
Philadelphia 14.046 34.158 29.142 22.654
Washington 11.224 29.996 35.41 23.37
Dallas 5.012 16.496 27.334 51.158

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 56.53 33.906 9.04 0.524
Green Bay 36.812 47.734 14.226 1.228
Minnesota 6.55 17.194 62.086 14.17
Detroit 0.108 1.166 14.648 84.078

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 52.286 34.876 11.736 1.102
Atlanta 36.416 37.298 22.35 3.936
Tampa Bay 10.758 25.15 53.228 10.864
Carolina 0.54 2.676 12.686 84.098

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 86.254 10.694 2.506 0.546
St Louis 6.964 36.912 32.178 23.946
San Francisco 4.27 34.086 32.744 28.9
Arizona 2.512 18.308 32.572 46.608

Generated: Wed Oct 20 17:45:21 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 45.416 17.666 9.454 5.05 11.118 5.076 93.78
Indianapolis 13.53 18.064 13.76 9.112 11.686 9.856 76.008
Kansas City 11.906 19.67 22.036 18.016 4.898 6.616 83.142
Baltimore 7.398 6.176 4.738 3.546 22.206 16.95 61.014
Houston 6.248 9.436 8.484 7.112 12.25 12.298 55.828
Miami 4.774 6.864 10.288 13.99 6.526 8.716 51.158
NY Jets 4.378 7.758 12.094 17.306 5.04 8.238 54.814
San Diego 3.55 7.574 7.854 6.386 17.51 15.352 58.226
New England 2.062 3.814 6.266 10.402 4.764 7.568 34.876
Tennessee 0.686 2.732 4.218 6.42 3.004 6.284 23.344
Cincinnati 0.04 0.094 0.126 0.248 0.568 1.198 2.274
Denver 0.012 0.132 0.622 2.216 0.308 1.344 4.634
Jacksonville 0.0 0.016 0.046 0.136 0.066 0.284 0.548
Cleveland 0.0 0.0040 0.012 0.032 0.054 0.202 0.304
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.024 0.0020 0.014 0.042
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.0 0.0040 0.0080

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 37.614 18.538 9.836 3.73 11.512 7.186 88.416
Seattle 18.874 20.652 21.14 25.588 1.106 1.608 88.968
Chicago 12.876 16.896 16.692 10.066 12.706 9.754 78.99
Green Bay 10.374 10.952 9.94 5.546 20.414 12.404 69.63
New Orleans 7.624 13.014 15.14 16.508 7.23 9.128 68.644
Philadelphia 4.296 4.404 3.712 1.634 16.014 14.81 44.87
Atlanta 3.052 6.766 10.52 16.078 4.412 7.532 48.36
Washington 2.96 3.266 3.126 1.872 12.36 13.118 36.702
Minnesota 0.744 1.346 2.136 2.324 3.8 5.942 16.292
Tampa Bay 0.646 1.822 3.308 4.982 2.846 4.912 18.516
Dallas 0.692 1.324 1.758 1.238 5.058 7.66 17.73
St Louis 0.218 0.76 1.68 4.306 1.862 3.698 12.524
San Francisco 0.018 0.108 0.492 3.652 0.31 0.942 5.522
Arizona 0.012 0.128 0.37 2.002 0.194 0.716 3.422
Carolina 0.0 0.016 0.108 0.416 0.046 0.198 0.784
Detroit 0.0 0.0080 0.042 0.058 0.13 0.392 0.63

Generated: Wed Oct 20 17:45:21 EDT 2010

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2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 5

Wednesday, October 13th, 2010

It is still a few weeks before I would would start reading too much into these predictions, nevertheless, I’m going to start posting them on a weekly basis. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 39.894 32.052 21.192 6.862
Miami 31.496 31.534 29.106 7.864
New England 26.662 30.39 33.296 9.652
Buffalo 1.948 6.024 16.406 75.622

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 67.422 21.146 8.43 3.002
Baltimore 20.362 40.012 26.328 13.298
Cincinnati 7.23 21.602 33.668 37.5
Cleveland 4.986 17.24 31.574 46.2

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 48.444 34.876 13.792 2.888
Indianapolis 40.838 39.642 16.058 3.462
Tennessee 9.386 19.938 48.448 22.228
Jacksonville 1.332 5.544 21.702 71.422

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 59.828 31.82 8.218 0.134
San Diego 33.966 49.864 15.828 0.342
Denver 6.176 18.048 70.228 5.548
Oakland 0.03 0.268 5.726 93.976

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 51.148 27.588 14.734 6.53
Philadelphia 22.66 28.942 28.116 20.282
Washington 18.266 27.472 30.16 24.102
NY Giants 7.926 15.998 26.99 49.086

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 82.218 16.986 0.754 0.042
Green Bay 17.2 72.908 8.292 1.6
Minnesota 0.454 6.056 51.922 41.568
Detroit 0.128 4.05 39.032 56.79

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 46.856 28.402 19.174 5.568
New Orleans 25.134 30.744 29.866 14.256
Atlanta 24.916 30.994 29.376 14.714
Carolina 3.094 9.86 21.584 65.462

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 93.592 5.666 0.656 0.086
San Francisco 4.62 60.062 25.976 9.342
Arizona 1.506 26.772 50.164 21.558
St Louis 0.282 7.5 23.204 69.014

Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Kansas City 31.52 16.644 8.71 2.954 19.208 8.654 87.69
Pittsburgh 22.256 23.064 14.978 7.124 6.2 7.782 81.404
San Diego 15.854 10.34 5.856 1.916 28.73 13.218 75.914
Houston 9.74 12.696 15.774 10.234 7.464 8.824 64.732
Indianapolis 8.442 10.844 13.074 8.478 9.834 10.36 61.032
Baltimore 3.708 6.834 6.24 3.58 8.522 12.636 41.52
NY Jets 2.194 5.096 9.932 22.672 1.884 3.918 45.696
Miami 1.932 4.556 8.082 16.926 2.284 4.938 38.718
New England 1.384 3.388 6.798 15.092 1.98 4.666 33.308
Denver 1.382 1.84 1.948 1.006 6.434 9.084 21.694
Cincinnati 0.728 1.898 2.386 2.218 3.07 5.706 16.006
Tennessee 0.498 1.254 3.446 4.188 1.758 3.798 14.942
Cleveland 0.324 1.3 1.96 1.402 2.144 4.976 12.106
Jacksonville 0.018 0.154 0.458 0.702 0.316 0.82 2.468
Buffalo 0.018 0.086 0.344 1.5 0.138 0.524 2.61
Oakland 0.0020 0.0060 0.014 0.0080 0.034 0.096 0.16

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 57.918 16.882 5.644 1.774 13.228 2.518 97.964
Seattle 22.224 35.874 21.344 14.15 0.91 1.412 95.914
Green Bay 8.746 5.506 2.204 0.744 47.742 13.26 78.202
Dallas 4.052 14.948 21.332 10.816 7.96 12.4 71.508
Tampa Bay 2.112 7.508 12.806 24.43 2.456 5.95 55.262
Philadelphia 1.674 5.28 9.74 5.966 5.694 13.824 42.178
Washington 1.14 4.204 7.894 5.028 6.164 11.886 36.316
New Orleans 0.814 3.624 6.906 13.79 2.802 7.816 35.752
Atlanta 0.566 2.81 6.196 15.344 2.246 5.93 33.092
NY Giants 0.474 1.788 3.326 2.338 3.368 7.684 18.978
San Francisco 0.166 1.044 1.434 1.976 3.676 8.028 16.324
Minnesota 0.066 0.152 0.15 0.086 1.67 3.25 5.374
Arizona 0.018 0.204 0.426 0.858 0.656 2.142 4.304
Carolina 0.018 0.106 0.504 2.466 0.266 1.152 4.512
Detroit 0.012 0.044 0.034 0.038 1.032 2.224 3.384
St Louis 0.0 0.026 0.06 0.196 0.13 0.524 0.936

Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010

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