It is still a few weeks before I would would start reading too much into these predictions, nevertheless, I’m going to start posting them on a weekly basis. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
NY Jets | 39.894 | 32.052 | 21.192 | 6.862 |
Miami | 31.496 | 31.534 | 29.106 | 7.864 |
New England | 26.662 | 30.39 | 33.296 | 9.652 |
Buffalo | 1.948 | 6.024 | 16.406 | 75.622 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Pittsburgh | 67.422 | 21.146 | 8.43 | 3.002 |
Baltimore | 20.362 | 40.012 | 26.328 | 13.298 |
Cincinnati | 7.23 | 21.602 | 33.668 | 37.5 |
Cleveland | 4.986 | 17.24 | 31.574 | 46.2 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Houston | 48.444 | 34.876 | 13.792 | 2.888 |
Indianapolis | 40.838 | 39.642 | 16.058 | 3.462 |
Tennessee | 9.386 | 19.938 | 48.448 | 22.228 |
Jacksonville | 1.332 | 5.544 | 21.702 | 71.422 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Kansas City | 59.828 | 31.82 | 8.218 | 0.134 |
San Diego | 33.966 | 49.864 | 15.828 | 0.342 |
Denver | 6.176 | 18.048 | 70.228 | 5.548 |
Oakland | 0.03 | 0.268 | 5.726 | 93.976 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Dallas | 51.148 | 27.588 | 14.734 | 6.53 |
Philadelphia | 22.66 | 28.942 | 28.116 | 20.282 |
Washington | 18.266 | 27.472 | 30.16 | 24.102 |
NY Giants | 7.926 | 15.998 | 26.99 | 49.086 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Chicago | 82.218 | 16.986 | 0.754 | 0.042 |
Green Bay | 17.2 | 72.908 | 8.292 | 1.6 |
Minnesota | 0.454 | 6.056 | 51.922 | 41.568 |
Detroit | 0.128 | 4.05 | 39.032 | 56.79 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Tampa Bay | 46.856 | 28.402 | 19.174 | 5.568 |
New Orleans | 25.134 | 30.744 | 29.866 | 14.256 |
Atlanta | 24.916 | 30.994 | 29.376 | 14.714 |
Carolina | 3.094 | 9.86 | 21.584 | 65.462 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Seattle | 93.592 | 5.666 | 0.656 | 0.086 |
San Francisco | 4.62 | 60.062 | 25.976 | 9.342 |
Arizona | 1.506 | 26.772 | 50.164 | 21.558 |
St Louis | 0.282 | 7.5 | 23.204 | 69.014 |
Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Kansas City | 31.52 | 16.644 | 8.71 | 2.954 | 19.208 | 8.654 | 87.69 |
Pittsburgh | 22.256 | 23.064 | 14.978 | 7.124 | 6.2 | 7.782 | 81.404 |
San Diego | 15.854 | 10.34 | 5.856 | 1.916 | 28.73 | 13.218 | 75.914 |
Houston | 9.74 | 12.696 | 15.774 | 10.234 | 7.464 | 8.824 | 64.732 |
Indianapolis | 8.442 | 10.844 | 13.074 | 8.478 | 9.834 | 10.36 | 61.032 |
Baltimore | 3.708 | 6.834 | 6.24 | 3.58 | 8.522 | 12.636 | 41.52 |
NY Jets | 2.194 | 5.096 | 9.932 | 22.672 | 1.884 | 3.918 | 45.696 |
Miami | 1.932 | 4.556 | 8.082 | 16.926 | 2.284 | 4.938 | 38.718 |
New England | 1.384 | 3.388 | 6.798 | 15.092 | 1.98 | 4.666 | 33.308 |
Denver | 1.382 | 1.84 | 1.948 | 1.006 | 6.434 | 9.084 | 21.694 |
Cincinnati | 0.728 | 1.898 | 2.386 | 2.218 | 3.07 | 5.706 | 16.006 |
Tennessee | 0.498 | 1.254 | 3.446 | 4.188 | 1.758 | 3.798 | 14.942 |
Cleveland | 0.324 | 1.3 | 1.96 | 1.402 | 2.144 | 4.976 | 12.106 |
Jacksonville | 0.018 | 0.154 | 0.458 | 0.702 | 0.316 | 0.82 | 2.468 |
Buffalo | 0.018 | 0.086 | 0.344 | 1.5 | 0.138 | 0.524 | 2.61 |
Oakland | 0.0020 | 0.0060 | 0.014 | 0.0080 | 0.034 | 0.096 | 0.16 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Chicago | 57.918 | 16.882 | 5.644 | 1.774 | 13.228 | 2.518 | 97.964 |
Seattle | 22.224 | 35.874 | 21.344 | 14.15 | 0.91 | 1.412 | 95.914 |
Green Bay | 8.746 | 5.506 | 2.204 | 0.744 | 47.742 | 13.26 | 78.202 |
Dallas | 4.052 | 14.948 | 21.332 | 10.816 | 7.96 | 12.4 | 71.508 |
Tampa Bay | 2.112 | 7.508 | 12.806 | 24.43 | 2.456 | 5.95 | 55.262 |
Philadelphia | 1.674 | 5.28 | 9.74 | 5.966 | 5.694 | 13.824 | 42.178 |
Washington | 1.14 | 4.204 | 7.894 | 5.028 | 6.164 | 11.886 | 36.316 |
New Orleans | 0.814 | 3.624 | 6.906 | 13.79 | 2.802 | 7.816 | 35.752 |
Atlanta | 0.566 | 2.81 | 6.196 | 15.344 | 2.246 | 5.93 | 33.092 |
NY Giants | 0.474 | 1.788 | 3.326 | 2.338 | 3.368 | 7.684 | 18.978 |
San Francisco | 0.166 | 1.044 | 1.434 | 1.976 | 3.676 | 8.028 | 16.324 |
Minnesota | 0.066 | 0.152 | 0.15 | 0.086 | 1.67 | 3.25 | 5.374 |
Arizona | 0.018 | 0.204 | 0.426 | 0.858 | 0.656 | 2.142 | 4.304 |
Carolina | 0.018 | 0.106 | 0.504 | 2.466 | 0.266 | 1.152 | 4.512 |
Detroit | 0.012 | 0.044 | 0.034 | 0.038 | 1.032 | 2.224 | 3.384 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.026 | 0.06 | 0.196 | 0.13 | 0.524 | 0.936 |
Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010
Great app, but is there a way to input my own power ratings into the software without having to move the sliders for every single game? I think few people anticipate a Seahawks-Chiefs Super Bowl at this point
Great to see your tables starting up again.
It would be quite the result if the Bucs really won their division but it is NFC East that appears the most exciting at the moment with all 4 teams playing at about the same level.
Hi James —
I don’t have that capability at this time. It could be done, but I probably won’t get to it until at least next season.
Is there any way to determine within the Java app when the power ratings were last updated?
Hi evo34 —
Not from within the app. I generally will update the power ratings within the software the same day the new efficiency ratings are posted at Advanced NFL Stats. I update the blog at the same time I put the new efficiency ratings within the software. So if there is a fresh blog up, the software has been updated. If this week’s blog isn’t up the ratings are from last week.