2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 5

It is still a few weeks before I would would start reading too much into these predictions, nevertheless, I’m going to start posting them on a weekly basis. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 39.894 32.052 21.192 6.862
Miami 31.496 31.534 29.106 7.864
New England 26.662 30.39 33.296 9.652
Buffalo 1.948 6.024 16.406 75.622

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 67.422 21.146 8.43 3.002
Baltimore 20.362 40.012 26.328 13.298
Cincinnati 7.23 21.602 33.668 37.5
Cleveland 4.986 17.24 31.574 46.2

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 48.444 34.876 13.792 2.888
Indianapolis 40.838 39.642 16.058 3.462
Tennessee 9.386 19.938 48.448 22.228
Jacksonville 1.332 5.544 21.702 71.422

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 59.828 31.82 8.218 0.134
San Diego 33.966 49.864 15.828 0.342
Denver 6.176 18.048 70.228 5.548
Oakland 0.03 0.268 5.726 93.976

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 51.148 27.588 14.734 6.53
Philadelphia 22.66 28.942 28.116 20.282
Washington 18.266 27.472 30.16 24.102
NY Giants 7.926 15.998 26.99 49.086

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 82.218 16.986 0.754 0.042
Green Bay 17.2 72.908 8.292 1.6
Minnesota 0.454 6.056 51.922 41.568
Detroit 0.128 4.05 39.032 56.79

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 46.856 28.402 19.174 5.568
New Orleans 25.134 30.744 29.866 14.256
Atlanta 24.916 30.994 29.376 14.714
Carolina 3.094 9.86 21.584 65.462

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 93.592 5.666 0.656 0.086
San Francisco 4.62 60.062 25.976 9.342
Arizona 1.506 26.772 50.164 21.558
St Louis 0.282 7.5 23.204 69.014

Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Kansas City 31.52 16.644 8.71 2.954 19.208 8.654 87.69
Pittsburgh 22.256 23.064 14.978 7.124 6.2 7.782 81.404
San Diego 15.854 10.34 5.856 1.916 28.73 13.218 75.914
Houston 9.74 12.696 15.774 10.234 7.464 8.824 64.732
Indianapolis 8.442 10.844 13.074 8.478 9.834 10.36 61.032
Baltimore 3.708 6.834 6.24 3.58 8.522 12.636 41.52
NY Jets 2.194 5.096 9.932 22.672 1.884 3.918 45.696
Miami 1.932 4.556 8.082 16.926 2.284 4.938 38.718
New England 1.384 3.388 6.798 15.092 1.98 4.666 33.308
Denver 1.382 1.84 1.948 1.006 6.434 9.084 21.694
Cincinnati 0.728 1.898 2.386 2.218 3.07 5.706 16.006
Tennessee 0.498 1.254 3.446 4.188 1.758 3.798 14.942
Cleveland 0.324 1.3 1.96 1.402 2.144 4.976 12.106
Jacksonville 0.018 0.154 0.458 0.702 0.316 0.82 2.468
Buffalo 0.018 0.086 0.344 1.5 0.138 0.524 2.61
Oakland 0.0020 0.0060 0.014 0.0080 0.034 0.096 0.16

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 57.918 16.882 5.644 1.774 13.228 2.518 97.964
Seattle 22.224 35.874 21.344 14.15 0.91 1.412 95.914
Green Bay 8.746 5.506 2.204 0.744 47.742 13.26 78.202
Dallas 4.052 14.948 21.332 10.816 7.96 12.4 71.508
Tampa Bay 2.112 7.508 12.806 24.43 2.456 5.95 55.262
Philadelphia 1.674 5.28 9.74 5.966 5.694 13.824 42.178
Washington 1.14 4.204 7.894 5.028 6.164 11.886 36.316
New Orleans 0.814 3.624 6.906 13.79 2.802 7.816 35.752
Atlanta 0.566 2.81 6.196 15.344 2.246 5.93 33.092
NY Giants 0.474 1.788 3.326 2.338 3.368 7.684 18.978
San Francisco 0.166 1.044 1.434 1.976 3.676 8.028 16.324
Minnesota 0.066 0.152 0.15 0.086 1.67 3.25 5.374
Arizona 0.018 0.204 0.426 0.858 0.656 2.142 4.304
Carolina 0.018 0.106 0.504 2.466 0.266 1.152 4.512
Detroit 0.012 0.044 0.034 0.038 1.032 2.224 3.384
St Louis 0.0 0.026 0.06 0.196 0.13 0.524 0.936

Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010

5 Responses to “2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 5”

  1. James Holzhauer says:

    Great app, but is there a way to input my own power ratings into the software without having to move the sliders for every single game? I think few people anticipate a Seahawks-Chiefs Super Bowl at this point

  2. Giles says:

    Great to see your tables starting up again.

    It would be quite the result if the Bucs really won their division but it is NFC East that appears the most exciting at the moment with all 4 teams playing at about the same level.

  3. admin says:

    Hi James —

    I don’t have that capability at this time. It could be done, but I probably won’t get to it until at least next season.

  4. evo34 says:

    Is there any way to determine within the Java app when the power ratings were last updated?

  5. admin says:

    Hi evo34 —

    Not from within the app. I generally will update the power ratings within the software the same day the new efficiency ratings are posted at Advanced NFL Stats. I update the blog at the same time I put the new efficiency ratings within the software. So if there is a fresh blog up, the software has been updated. If this week’s blog isn’t up the ratings are from last week.

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