2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 6

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 41.536 33.576 24.802 0.086
Miami 35.916 34.216 29.652 0.216
New England 22.544 32.172 44.96 0.324
Buffalo 0.0040 0.036 0.586 99.374

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 77.586 21.406 0.984 0.024
Baltimore 21.858 70.614 6.934 0.594
Cincinnati 0.508 6.468 62.024 31.0
Cleveland 0.048 1.512 30.058 68.382

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 54.466 31.476 13.164 0.894
Houston 31.28 40.358 25.252 3.11
Tennessee 14.056 26.778 52.592 6.574
Jacksonville 0.198 1.388 8.992 89.422

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 71.628 24.464 3.818 0.09
San Diego 25.364 62.414 11.936 0.286
Denver 2.982 12.828 74.148 10.042
Oakland 0.026 0.294 10.098 89.582

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 69.718 19.35 8.114 2.818
Philadelphia 14.046 34.158 29.142 22.654
Washington 11.224 29.996 35.41 23.37
Dallas 5.012 16.496 27.334 51.158

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 56.53 33.906 9.04 0.524
Green Bay 36.812 47.734 14.226 1.228
Minnesota 6.55 17.194 62.086 14.17
Detroit 0.108 1.166 14.648 84.078

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 52.286 34.876 11.736 1.102
Atlanta 36.416 37.298 22.35 3.936
Tampa Bay 10.758 25.15 53.228 10.864
Carolina 0.54 2.676 12.686 84.098

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 86.254 10.694 2.506 0.546
St Louis 6.964 36.912 32.178 23.946
San Francisco 4.27 34.086 32.744 28.9
Arizona 2.512 18.308 32.572 46.608

Generated: Wed Oct 20 17:45:21 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 45.416 17.666 9.454 5.05 11.118 5.076 93.78
Indianapolis 13.53 18.064 13.76 9.112 11.686 9.856 76.008
Kansas City 11.906 19.67 22.036 18.016 4.898 6.616 83.142
Baltimore 7.398 6.176 4.738 3.546 22.206 16.95 61.014
Houston 6.248 9.436 8.484 7.112 12.25 12.298 55.828
Miami 4.774 6.864 10.288 13.99 6.526 8.716 51.158
NY Jets 4.378 7.758 12.094 17.306 5.04 8.238 54.814
San Diego 3.55 7.574 7.854 6.386 17.51 15.352 58.226
New England 2.062 3.814 6.266 10.402 4.764 7.568 34.876
Tennessee 0.686 2.732 4.218 6.42 3.004 6.284 23.344
Cincinnati 0.04 0.094 0.126 0.248 0.568 1.198 2.274
Denver 0.012 0.132 0.622 2.216 0.308 1.344 4.634
Jacksonville 0.0 0.016 0.046 0.136 0.066 0.284 0.548
Cleveland 0.0 0.0040 0.012 0.032 0.054 0.202 0.304
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.024 0.0020 0.014 0.042
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.0 0.0040 0.0080

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 37.614 18.538 9.836 3.73 11.512 7.186 88.416
Seattle 18.874 20.652 21.14 25.588 1.106 1.608 88.968
Chicago 12.876 16.896 16.692 10.066 12.706 9.754 78.99
Green Bay 10.374 10.952 9.94 5.546 20.414 12.404 69.63
New Orleans 7.624 13.014 15.14 16.508 7.23 9.128 68.644
Philadelphia 4.296 4.404 3.712 1.634 16.014 14.81 44.87
Atlanta 3.052 6.766 10.52 16.078 4.412 7.532 48.36
Washington 2.96 3.266 3.126 1.872 12.36 13.118 36.702
Minnesota 0.744 1.346 2.136 2.324 3.8 5.942 16.292
Tampa Bay 0.646 1.822 3.308 4.982 2.846 4.912 18.516
Dallas 0.692 1.324 1.758 1.238 5.058 7.66 17.73
St Louis 0.218 0.76 1.68 4.306 1.862 3.698 12.524
San Francisco 0.018 0.108 0.492 3.652 0.31 0.942 5.522
Arizona 0.012 0.128 0.37 2.002 0.194 0.716 3.422
Carolina 0.0 0.016 0.108 0.416 0.046 0.198 0.784
Detroit 0.0 0.0080 0.042 0.058 0.13 0.392 0.63

Generated: Wed Oct 20 17:45:21 EDT 2010

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.