2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 7

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 47.7 31.854 20.404 0.042
NY Jets 33.2 36.298 30.456 0.046
Miami 19.1 31.842 48.842 0.216
Buffalo 0.0 0.0060 0.298 99.696

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 94.84 5.1 0.054 0.0060
Baltimore 5.084 83.366 9.744 1.806
Cleveland 0.048 6.32 50.814 42.818
Cincinnati 0.028 5.214 39.388 55.37

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 49.818 31.954 17.9 0.328
Tennessee 30.086 34.798 34.376 0.74
Houston 20.066 32.994 44.752 2.188
Jacksonville 0.03 0.254 2.972 96.744

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 85.33 14.03 0.598 0.042
San Diego 14.286 79.672 5.416 0.626
Denver 0.268 4.412 47.914 47.406
Oakland 0.116 1.886 46.072 51.926

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 82.51 13.61 3.646 0.234
Washington 9.384 44.824 39.038 6.754
Philadelphia 7.95 37.24 41.758 13.052
Dallas 0.156 4.326 15.558 79.96

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 64.016 29.804 5.728 0.452
Chicago 30.41 49.01 18.352 2.228
Minnesota 5.294 18.944 57.696 18.066
Detroit 0.28 2.242 18.224 79.254

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 72.678 19.56 6.99 0.772
New Orleans 11.328 41.586 40.892 6.194
Tampa Bay 15.662 36.534 41.426 6.378
Carolina 0.332 2.32 10.692 86.656

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 73.798 17.744 6.52 1.938
Arizona 11.076 31.722 31.518 25.684
San Francisco 7.062 27.846 30.842 34.25
St Louis 8.064 22.688 31.12 38.128

Generated: Wed Oct 27 17:27:19 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 77.34 12.328 4.024 1.148 3.946 0.746 99.532
Kansas City 6.644 26.112 27.364 25.21 2.0 3.132 90.462
Indianapolis 5.642 19.982 14.812 9.382 12.542 10.672 73.032
New England 4.118 13.728 15.194 14.66 10.14 10.326 68.166
NY Jets 1.676 7.302 10.768 13.454 6.972 10.006 50.178
Baltimore 2.218 1.492 0.904 0.47 26.998 17.976 50.058
Houston 1.3 6.322 6.26 6.184 11.348 11.808 43.222
Tennessee 0.666 7.252 9.674 12.494 6.34 9.586 46.012
Miami 0.304 3.194 6.41 9.192 7.112 9.602 35.814
San Diego 0.086 2.266 4.532 7.402 11.64 14.042 39.968
Cleveland 0.0040 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.568 1.178 1.794
Cincinnati 0.0020 0.0060 0.0060 0.014 0.354 0.766 1.148
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.248 0.024 0.06 0.352
Oakland 0.0 0.0020 0.012 0.102 0.01 0.05 0.176
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.026 0.0060 0.05 0.086
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 58.704 17.232 5.498 1.076 10.502 3.81 96.822
Atlanta 15.716 31.782 18.438 6.742 5.866 7.004 85.548
Green Bay 10.12 17.308 25.18 11.408 6.39 7.248 77.654
Seattle 3.43 9.14 19.152 42.076 0.39 1.028 75.216
Washington 3.896 3.506 1.618 0.364 23.192 17.818 50.394
Philadelphia 3.332 2.808 1.5 0.31 20.946 17.41 46.306
Tampa Bay 2.066 6.694 5.028 1.874 10.78 12.95 39.392
New Orleans 1.414 4.71 3.696 1.508 12.986 15.532 39.846
Chicago 1.098 5.708 14.214 9.39 5.368 9.252 45.03
Minnesota 0.154 0.628 2.584 1.928 1.562 3.042 9.898
Arizona 0.024 0.188 1.332 9.532 0.346 1.058 12.48
St Louis 0.022 0.166 0.96 6.916 0.2 0.642 8.906
Dallas 0.024 0.046 0.07 0.016 1.196 2.146 3.498
San Francisco 0.0 0.02 0.462 6.58 0.054 0.194 7.31
Carolina 0.0 0.048 0.166 0.118 0.126 0.53 0.988
Detroit 0.0 0.016 0.102 0.162 0.096 0.336 0.712

Generated: Wed Oct 27 17:27:19 EDT 2010

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