2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 8

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 49.162 30.842 19.974 0.022
NY Jets 28.576 35.402 35.968 0.054
Miami 22.262 33.752 43.868 0.118
Buffalo 0.0 0.0040 0.19 99.806

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 87.896 12.002 0.098 0.0040
Baltimore 12.05 82.76 4.656 0.534
Cleveland 0.036 3.412 57.418 39.134
Cincinnati 0.018 1.826 37.828 60.328

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 51.572 33.3 14.11 1.018
Tennessee 35.746 36.126 26.156 1.972
Houston 12.436 28.798 49.41 9.356
Jacksonville 0.246 1.776 10.324 87.654

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 83.318 15.454 1.192 0.036
San Diego 15.834 76.066 7.514 0.586
Oakland 0.814 7.582 77.328 14.276
Denver 0.034 0.898 13.966 85.102

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 92.78 6.432 0.766 0.022
Philadelphia 5.576 56.968 30.864 6.592
Washington 1.63 33.662 56.688 8.02
Dallas 0.014 2.938 11.682 85.366

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 70.282 25.352 4.06 0.306
Chicago 25.268 51.242 20.046 3.444
Minnesota 4.148 20.176 54.228 21.448
Detroit 0.302 3.23 21.666 74.802

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 56.152 27.562 15.58 0.706
New Orleans 30.008 45.512 23.792 0.688
Tampa Bay 13.8 26.548 57.222 2.43
Carolina 0.04 0.378 3.406 96.176

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 27.764 28.66 25.188 18.388
St Louis 33.736 25.138 22.164 18.962
San Francisco 20.546 23.924 26.032 29.498
Arizona 17.954 22.278 26.616 33.152

Generated: Wed Nov 03 09:35:59 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 61.424 16.45 7.178 2.844 7.942 2.162 98.0
Kansas City 10.23 23.588 25.52 23.98 2.22 3.49 89.028
New England 9.058 14.848 13.69 11.566 12.234 10.792 72.188
Indianapolis 8.198 16.992 14.722 11.66 11.014 9.926 72.512
Baltimore 3.986 3.516 2.718 1.83 22.092 16.244 50.386
NY Jets 3.106 6.932 8.922 9.616 8.82 11.504 48.9
Tennessee 1.252 7.058 10.604 16.832 5.064 8.534 49.344
Miami 1.304 5.01 7.444 8.504 9.54 11.346 43.148
Houston 1.134 2.984 3.866 4.452 8.62 9.96 31.016
San Diego 0.298 2.566 5.192 7.778 12.032 14.884 42.75
Oakland 0.0080 0.046 0.108 0.652 0.168 0.418 1.4
Cincinnati 0.0020 0.0020 0.0040 0.01 0.028 0.088 0.134
Cleveland 0.0 0.0060 0.01 0.02 0.154 0.372 0.562
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0020 0.022 0.222 0.072 0.278 0.596
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.0 0.0020 0.036
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 69.692 17.112 5.808 0.168 4.214 1.786 98.78
Green Bay 11.256 21.904 33.02 4.102 6.87 6.486 83.638
Atlanta 9.358 28.4 16.954 1.44 12.722 11.728 80.602
New Orleans 4.712 15.95 8.646 0.7 26.804 18.144 74.956
Tampa Bay 1.59 7.138 4.768 0.304 13.63 16.54 43.97
Philadelphia 2.094 2.006 1.404 0.072 20.618 17.788 43.982
Chicago 0.616 4.992 17.078 2.582 6.08 10.146 41.494
Washington 0.46 0.596 0.512 0.062 6.9 10.95 19.48
Seattle 0.094 0.732 3.24 23.698 0.232 0.848 28.844
St Louis 0.036 0.654 3.75 29.296 0.18 0.546 34.462
Minnesota 0.088 0.406 3.04 0.614 1.356 3.626 9.13
Arizona 0.0020 0.064 0.872 17.016 0.022 0.182 18.158
San Francisco 0.0 0.016 0.64 19.89 0.0020 0.064 20.612
Detroit 0.0 0.024 0.23 0.048 0.13 0.544 0.976
Dallas 0.0020 0.0020 0.01 0.0 0.218 0.516 0.748
Carolina 0.0 0.0040 0.028 0.0080 0.022 0.106 0.168

Generated: Wed Nov 03 09:35:59 EDT 2010

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