NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Jets	57.802	28.818	13.378	0.0020
New England	28.528	40.496	30.95	0.026
Miami	13.67	30.682	55.536	0.112
Buffalo	0.0	0.0040	0.136	99.86

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	90.2	9.6	0.194	0.0060
Baltimore	9.646	80.206	9.58	0.568
Cleveland	0.154	9.326	72.942	17.578
Cincinnati	0.0	0.868	17.284	81.848

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tennessee	64.538	23.626	11.124	0.712
Indianapolis	27.09	46.59	23.672	2.648
Houston	8.122	26.926	53.138	11.814
Jacksonville	0.25	2.858	12.066	84.826

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Kansas City	51.438	40.618	7.564	0.38
San Diego	45.21	45.848	8.632	0.31
Oakland	3.262	12.926	78.422	5.39
Denver	0.09	0.608	5.382	93.92

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	87.818	11.17	1.008	0.0040
Philadelphia	11.03	70.32	17.606	1.044
Washington	1.15	17.98	75.882	4.988
Dallas	0.0020	0.53	5.504	93.964

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	80.624	17.196	2.156	0.024
Chicago	16.098	56.566	25.622	1.714
Minnesota	3.26	25.296	61.08	10.364
Detroit	0.018	0.942	11.142	87.898

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	43.084	42.774	14.142	0.0
Atlanta	49.604	36.022	14.242	0.132
Tampa Bay	7.312	21.178	70.764	0.746
Carolina	0.0	0.026	0.852	99.122

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
St Louis	39.416	25.38	20.052	15.152
Seattle	26.05	29.71	25.912	18.328
San Francisco	20.658	24.42	27.196	27.726
Arizona	13.876	20.49	26.84	38.794

Generated: Wed Nov 10 09:15:34 EST 2010

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Pittsburgh	77.258	9.394	2.81	0.738	7.814	1.192	99.206
NY Jets	6.848	20.462	17.162	13.33	6.038	8.362	72.202
Baltimore	5.77	2.22	1.18	0.476	33.5	18.304	61.45
New England	3.108	10.706	8.72	5.994	11.784	11.862	52.174
Tennessee	2.036	16.5	19.23	26.772	2.184	4.87	71.592
Kansas City	1.722	14.738	17.44	17.538	6.582	10.418	68.438
Indianapolis	1.834	8.31	8.768	8.178	9.574	12.002	48.666
San Diego	0.932	12.32	16.844	15.114	10.762	12.394	68.366
Miami	0.186	3.464	4.866	5.154	4.71	8.898	27.278
Houston	0.226	1.568	2.142	4.186	4.542	6.714	19.378
Oakland	0.038	0.274	0.768	2.182	0.74	1.986	5.988
Cleveland	0.038	0.038	0.032	0.046	1.682	2.654	4.49
Jacksonville	0.0040	0.0060	0.032	0.208	0.07	0.248	0.568
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.0060	0.084	0.0	0.0020	0.092
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.018	0.094	0.112
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NY Giants	58.458	20.086	9.236	0.038	6.924	3.314	98.056
Green Bay	18.412	25.524	34.944	1.744	4.948	4.864	90.436
New Orleans	8.98	21.19	12.444	0.47	27.448	15.994	86.526
Atlanta	8.822	21.916	17.98	0.886	14.246	16.224	80.074
Philadelphia	3.778	3.992	3.2	0.06	26.394	21.13	58.554
Tampa Bay	0.796	3.282	3.158	0.076	10.694	17.038	35.044
Chicago	0.454	2.718	11.9	1.026	4.54	9.902	30.54
Washington	0.174	0.434	0.504	0.038	3.156	6.83	11.136
Minnesota	0.078	0.328	2.664	0.19	1.532	4.062	8.854
St Louis	0.028	0.36	2.328	36.7	0.042	0.198	39.656
Seattle	0.02	0.166	1.234	24.63	0.052	0.278	26.38
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.248	20.41	0.0	0.016	20.674
Arizona	0.0	0.0020	0.144	13.73	0.0	0.022	13.898
Detroit	0.0	0.0020	0.016	0.0	0.018	0.086	0.122
Dallas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.0060	0.036	0.044
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0060	0.0060

Generated: Wed Nov 10 09:15:34 EST 2010

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