2008 Playoff Predictions after Week 5

These are the first predictions for the 2008 season. They were computed before the start of the week 6 games and are posted in order to provide documentation of the prediction accuracy for the 2008 season. I think the predictions are putting a little too much stock in Miami,¬†Tennessee¬†and Arizona so early in the season. We’ll see.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Miami 55.32 29.22 13.08 2.38
NY Jets 22.8 32.16 31.18 13.86
Buffalo 20.04 30.88 33.86 15.22
New England 1.84 7.74 21.88 68.54

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 92.24 7.34 0.4 0.02
Baltimore 7.4 83.06 8.34 1.2
Cincinnati 0.34 6.56 52.1 41.0
Cleveland 0.02 3.04 39.16 57.78

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 83.92 13.74 2.26 0.08
Indianapolis 12.72 53.48 27.86 5.94
Jacksonville 3.28 28.64 51.34 16.74
Houston 0.08 4.14 18.54 77.24

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 66.34 32.08 1.58 0.0
Denver 32.58 60.96 6.42 0.04
Oakland 1.08 6.96 88.62 3.34
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 3.38 96.62

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington 58.48 36.7 4.3 0.52
NY Giants 38.52 45.24 12.5 3.74
Dallas 2.38 12.24 52.48 32.9
Philadelphia 0.62 5.82 30.72 62.84

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 83.98 13.74 2.28 0.0
Minnesota 12.92 61.12 25.82 0.14
Green Bay 3.1 25.14 71.46 0.3
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.44 99.56

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 84.7 11.78 2.88 0.64
Tampa Bay 8.1 37.5 34.38 20.02
New Orleans 5.22 32.42 33.44 28.92
Atlanta 1.98 18.3 29.3 50.42

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 97.7 2.16 0.14 0.0
San Francisco 1.56 69.7 22.64 6.1
Seattle 0.66 22.06 54.36 22.92
St Louis 0.08 6.08 22.86 70.98

Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 30.52 22.56 20.08 10.76 3.04 3.9 90.86
Miami 24.08 17.92 10.36 2.96 20.5 11.4 87.22
San Diego 14.04 20.78 22.36 9.16 10.54 9.64 86.52
Pittsburgh 9.16 12.54 17.76 52.78 0.16 0.36 92.76
Buffalo 7.5 6.4 4.62 1.52 19.38 18.46 57.88
Denver 6.38 9.16 10.16 6.88 16.68 15.62 64.88
NY Jets 6.4 6.8 6.86 2.74 18.14 16.98 57.92
Indianapolis 1.38 2.72 4.96 3.66 5.48 9.62 27.82
New England 0.38 0.52 0.7 0.24 3.9 6.26 12.0
Baltimore 0.06 0.12 0.62 6.6 0.44 1.58 9.42
Jacksonville 0.04 0.32 1.08 1.84 0.88 3.42 7.58
Oakland 0.06 0.16 0.42 0.44 0.72 2.38 4.18
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.34 0.0 0.02 0.36
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.36 0.58
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Washington 52.12 5.88 0.42 0.06 36.56 4.16 99.2
NY Giants 33.46 4.42 0.6 0.04 43.6 11.52 93.64
Carolina 9.18 46.18 21.08 8.26 0.56 4.0 89.26
Chicago 2.02 20.54 40.26 21.16 0.08 1.9 85.96
Arizona 1.0 14.02 24.98 57.7 0.0 0.02 97.72
Dallas 1.72 0.56 0.1 0.0 11.66 38.06 52.1
Tampa Bay 0.14 3.36 3.2 1.4 1.04 8.4 17.54
Minnesota 0.04 2.18 5.44 5.26 0.48 5.74 19.14
Philadelphia 0.28 0.16 0.16 0.02 5.32 17.52 23.46
New Orleans 0.04 1.62 1.74 1.82 0.36 5.14 10.72
Atlanta 0.0 0.86 0.76 0.36 0.3 2.96 5.24
Green Bay 0.0 0.2 1.18 1.72 0.02 0.42 3.54
San Francisco 0.0 0.02 0.08 1.46 0.02 0.1 1.68
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.66 0.0 0.06 0.72
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.0 0.08
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008

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