NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	97.838	2.162	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	2.162	92.39	5.448	0.0
Miami	0.0	5.448	94.552	0.0
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	92.88	7.12	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	7.12	92.88	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	99.44	0.56
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.56	99.44

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Jacksonville	31.488	56.842	11.67	0.0
Indianapolis	66.174	25.012	7.578	1.236
Houston	1.306	12.73	62.73	23.234
Tennessee	1.032	5.416	18.022	75.53

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	53.264	44.394	2.342	0.0
Kansas City	45.36	48.812	5.828	0.0
Oakland	1.376	6.794	91.83	0.0
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	53.13	46.87	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	46.87	53.13	0.0	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	71.906	28.094
Dallas	0.0	0.0	28.094	71.906

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	57.696	42.304	0.0	0.0
Green Bay	42.304	57.696	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	93.88	6.12
Detroit	0.0	0.0	6.12	93.88

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	89.422	10.578	0.0	0.0
New Orleans	10.578	78.378	11.044	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	11.044	88.956	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	48.296	30.276	21.26	0.168
St Louis	27.944	36.18	33.342	2.534
San Francisco	23.76	32.642	38.808	4.79
Arizona	0.0	0.902	6.59	92.508

Generated: Thu Dec 16 01:13:17 EST 2010

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New England	85.03	12.76	0.048	0.0	1.74	0.422	100.0
Pittsburgh	13.858	78.902	0.114	0.0060	3.328	3.792	100.0
Baltimore	0.304	6.808	0.0080	0.0	73.88	14.752	95.752
NY Jets	0.808	1.334	0.02	0.0	18.428	60.466	81.056
San Diego	0.0	0.0	49.532	3.732	2.202	11.244	66.71
Kansas City	0.0	0.06	39.108	6.192	0.078	3.342	48.78
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	7.678	58.496	0.0	0.078	66.252
Jacksonville	0.0	0.136	2.684	28.668	0.232	1.6	33.32
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.808	0.568	0.0	0.094	1.47
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.306	0.0	0.0	1.306
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.032	0.0	0.0	1.032
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.112	4.21	4.322
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	79.57	9.138	0.714	0.0	9.17	1.378	99.97
New Orleans	10.386	0.192	0.0	0.0	75.52	7.738	93.836
NY Giants	4.66	38.352	10.118	0.0	3.252	25.072	81.454
Philadelphia	4.61	26.288	15.972	0.0	3.078	24.5	74.448
Chicago	0.756	13.152	43.788	0.0	0.0	2.962	60.658
Green Bay	0.018	12.878	29.036	0.372	0.922	11.41	54.636
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.372	47.924	0.0	0.0	48.296
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	27.944	0.0	0.0	27.944
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	23.76	0.0	0.0	23.76
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.058	26.94	34.998
Dallas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 16 01:13:17 EST 2010

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