NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	42.744	37.83	19.4	0.026
Miami	44.498	34.874	20.49	0.138
Buffalo	12.758	27.284	59.486	0.472
NY Jets	0.0	0.012	0.624	99.364

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	34.742	28.808	24.38	12.07
Cincinnati	38.904	24.414	20.794	15.888
Baltimore	10.164	24.212	30.264	35.36
Cleveland	16.19	22.566	24.562	36.682

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	94.024	5.544	0.424	0.008
Houston	5.084	65.016	23.476	6.424
Tennessee	0.796	23.432	54.396	21.376
Jacksonville	0.096	6.008	21.704	72.192

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	78.312	18.904	2.782	0.002
Kansas City	19.078	61.01	19.848	0.064
San Diego	2.608	20.068	77.07	0.254
Oakland	0.002	0.018	0.3	99.68

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Philadelphia	55.976	31.172	10.364	2.488
Dallas	37.326	40.11	16.888	5.676
Washington	4.044	17.39	39.342	39.224
NY Giants	2.654	11.328	33.406	52.612

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	44.87	47.504	6.796	0.83
Detroit	52.408	39.062	7.484	1.046
Chicago	2.07	9.016	48.06	40.854
Minnesota	0.652	4.418	37.66	57.27

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	75.606	21.422	2.828	0.144
Carolina	21.832	64.074	12.702	1.392
Atlanta	2.474	12.782	66.468	18.276
Tampa Bay	0.088	1.722	18.002	80.188

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	64.914	26.65	7.178	1.258
Seattle	27.446	42.204	24.822	5.528
San Francisco	6.984	27.368	49.148	16.5
St Louis	0.656	3.778	18.852	76.714

Generated: Wed Nov 05 23:27:58 EST 2014

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Denver	41.294	20.398	12.1	4.52	8.794	5.19	92.296
New England	13.134	12.114	10.28	7.216	14.162	12.746	69.652
Miami	12.192	13.348	11.4	7.558	13.23	11.956	69.684
Indianapolis	8.94	18.65	21.398	45.036	0.184	0.372	94.58
Cincinnati	7.304	10.42	12.524	8.656	6.904	9.542	55.35
Kansas City	7.13	5.136	4.284	2.528	23.678	13.768	56.524
Pittsburgh	5.94	10.146	12.458	6.198	9.254	10.52	54.516
Buffalo	1.79	2.794	3.884	4.29	7.146	8.476	28.38
Cleveland	1.436	4.042	6.44	4.272	4.846	7.736	28.772
Baltimore	0.336	1.746	3.61	4.472	4.596	7.992	22.752
San Diego	0.426	0.732	0.742	0.708	5.472	8.0	16.08
Houston	0.078	0.468	0.802	3.736	1.572	3.168	9.824
Tennessee	0.0	0.006	0.078	0.712	0.162	0.534	1.492
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.096	0.0	0.0	0.096
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.002	0.0	0.0	0.002
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Arizona	37.896	18.774	6.914	1.33	15.282	9.602	89.798
Detroit	24.156	18.508	8.48	1.264	21.542	12.644	86.594
Green Bay	12.502	17.914	10.79	3.664	17.516	15.326	77.712
Seattle	10.018	8.66	6.878	1.89	19.008	14.866	61.32
Philadelphia	7.538	14.5	23.378	10.56	4.368	7.328	67.672
Dallas	4.174	10.352	19.15	3.65	7.186	11.422	55.934
New Orleans	1.908	6.692	15.506	51.5	0.212	0.834	76.652
San Francisco	1.336	2.854	2.014	0.78	8.398	11.934	27.316
Chicago	0.294	0.73	0.75	0.296	3.072	5.514	10.656
Carolina	0.04	0.346	2.16	19.286	0.302	1.254	23.388
Minnesota	0.082	0.188	0.238	0.144	1.438	3.444	5.534
NY Giants	0.032	0.28	1.384	0.958	0.77	2.292	5.716
Washington	0.006	0.114	2.01	1.914	0.556	2.476	7.076
St Louis	0.018	0.078	0.29	0.27	0.342	1.004	2.002
Atlanta	0.0	0.01	0.056	2.408	0.008	0.058	2.54
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.002	0.086	0.0	0.002	0.09

Generated: Wed Nov 05 23:27:58 EST 2014

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