2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 15

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 68.996 31.004
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 31.004 68.996

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 60.192 39.808 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 39.808 60.192 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 76.506 19.624 3.87 0.0
Oakland 11.534 36.964 33.132 18.37
San Diego 4.292 37.67 35.176 22.862
Kansas City 7.668 5.742 27.822 58.768

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 56.208 24.834 18.958 0.0
NY Giants 35.204 39.558 23.648 1.59
Philadelphia 8.588 31.888 45.084 14.44
Washington 0.0 3.72 12.31 83.97

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 95.99 4.01 0.0
Chicago 0.0 4.01 95.99 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.31 4.69 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 4.69 95.31 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 75.654 24.346
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 24.346 75.654

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 59.036 40.964 0.0
Arizona 0.0 40.964 59.036 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 21 16:01:48 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 62.772 12.92 24.308 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Houston 26.988 28.388 44.114 0.51 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 6.12 41.934 12.078 0.06 39.808 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 4.12 16.758 18.93 0.0 60.192 0.0 100.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.57 75.936 0.0 2.732 79.238
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.534 0.0 11.264 22.798
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.668 0.0 0.0 7.668
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.292 0.0 6.826 11.118
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.93 37.93
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.85 37.85
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.398 3.398
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 97.662 2.338 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 2.338 51.296 46.366 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.0 46.366 48.944 0.0 4.69 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.208 0.338 1.174 57.72
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 4.69 0.0 72.244 18.456 95.39
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.204 0.0 0.0 35.204
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.588 0.0 0.0 8.588
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.926 65.214 86.14
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.644 6.038 6.682
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.696 5.196 5.892
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.462 3.922 4.384
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 21 16:01:48 EST 2011

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.