NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Miami	0.0	0.0	68.996	31.004
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	31.004	68.996

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	60.192	39.808	0.0	0.0
Pittsburgh	39.808	60.192	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	76.506	19.624	3.87	0.0
Oakland	11.534	36.964	33.132	18.37
San Diego	4.292	37.67	35.176	22.862
Kansas City	7.668	5.742	27.822	58.768

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	56.208	24.834	18.958	0.0
NY Giants	35.204	39.558	23.648	1.59
Philadelphia	8.588	31.888	45.084	14.44
Washington	0.0	3.72	12.31	83.97

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	95.99	4.01	0.0
Chicago	0.0	4.01	95.99	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	95.31	4.69	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	4.69	95.31	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	75.654	24.346
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	24.346	75.654

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.0	59.036	40.964	0.0
Arizona	0.0	40.964	59.036	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 21 16:01:48 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New England	62.772	12.92	24.308	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Houston	26.988	28.388	44.114	0.51	0.0	0.0	100.0
Baltimore	6.12	41.934	12.078	0.06	39.808	0.0	100.0
Pittsburgh	4.12	16.758	18.93	0.0	60.192	0.0	100.0
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.57	75.936	0.0	2.732	79.238
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.534	0.0	11.264	22.798
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.668	0.0	0.0	7.668
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.292	0.0	6.826	11.118
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	37.93	37.93
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	37.85	37.85
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.398	3.398
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Green Bay	97.662	2.338	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Francisco	2.338	51.296	46.366	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
New Orleans	0.0	46.366	48.944	0.0	4.69	0.0	100.0
Dallas	0.0	0.0	0.0	56.208	0.338	1.174	57.72
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	4.69	0.0	72.244	18.456	95.39
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.0	35.204	0.0	0.0	35.204
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.588	0.0	0.0	8.588
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	20.926	65.214	86.14
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.644	6.038	6.682
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.696	5.196	5.892
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.462	3.922	4.384
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 21 16:01:48 EST 2011

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 21st, 2011 at 5:04 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.