2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 11

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 87.916 9.72 2.09 0.274
NY Jets 5.824 47.378 28.684 18.114
Miami 4.224 26.922 30.748 38.106
Buffalo 2.036 15.98 38.478 43.506

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 96.35 3.332 0.284 0.034
Cleveland 1.408 43.5 35.31 19.782
Pittsburgh 1.656 39.032 28.03 31.282
Baltimore 0.586 14.136 36.376 48.902

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 98.17 1.752 0.078 0.0
Tennessee 1.456 70.264 27.664 0.616
Houston 0.374 27.63 66.746 5.25
Jacksonville 0.0 0.354 5.512 94.134

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 87.214 12.764 0.022 0.0
Kansas City 12.786 86.422 0.786 0.006
San Diego 0.0 0.774 76.65 22.576
Oakland 0.0 0.04 22.542 77.418

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 74.438 21.83 3.688 0.044
Dallas 21.718 46.36 27.882 4.04
NY Giants 3.706 26.96 49.434 19.9
Washington 0.138 4.85 18.996 76.016

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 57.596 29.402 12.988 0.014
Green Bay 26.348 33.588 39.792 0.272
Chicago 16.056 36.992 46.752 0.2
Minnesota 0.0 0.018 0.468 99.514

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 88.582 11.418 0.0 0.0
Carolina 11.418 88.554 0.028 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.02 58.46 41.52
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.008 41.512 58.48

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.196 0.774 0.03 0.0
San Francisco 0.63 58.91 37.892 2.568
Arizona 0.174 39.586 56.666 3.574
St Louis 0.0 0.73 5.412 93.858

Generated: Wed Nov 20 23:45:37 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 80.896 5.0 1.202 0.116 12.662 0.118 99.994
Kansas City 11.708 0.902 0.162 0.014 85.02 1.858 99.664
Cincinnati 2.468 52.468 28.43 12.984 0.082 1.98 98.412
New England 3.404 17.256 32.842 34.414 0.278 5.824 94.018
Indianapolis 1.518 22.936 32.336 41.38 0.004 0.262 98.436
Miami 0.006 0.908 1.938 1.372 0.818 18.982 24.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.214 1.574 4.036 0.264 25.516 31.604
Cleveland 0.0 0.166 0.448 0.794 0.102 13.132 14.642
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.054 0.34 1.262 0.098 8.478 10.232
Tennessee 0.0 0.042 0.37 1.044 0.066 7.69 9.212
Baltimore 0.0 0.048 0.19 0.348 0.024 3.432 4.042
Buffalo 0.0 0.006 0.162 1.868 0.0 4.218 6.254
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.368 0.0 0.518 0.892
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.544 6.268 6.812
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.038 1.724 1.762
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 72.714 25.59 0.858 0.034 0.67 0.102 99.968
New Orleans 26.916 59.394 2.182 0.09 10.074 1.086 99.742
Carolina 0.264 9.636 1.424 0.094 47.182 23.638 82.238
Philadelphia 0.01 2.57 37.302 34.556 1.448 3.784 79.67
Detroit 0.048 1.876 33.552 22.12 3.478 7.356 68.43
Green Bay 0.0 0.078 11.162 15.108 0.99 5.45 32.788
Chicago 0.002 0.176 9.528 6.35 2.438 7.454 25.948
San Francisco 0.026 0.474 0.104 0.026 14.464 28.576 43.67
Dallas 0.0 0.074 3.198 18.446 0.738 3.334 25.79
Arizona 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.004 18.348 17.822 36.344
NY Giants 0.0 0.002 0.67 3.034 0.152 1.22 5.078
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.138 0.002 0.056 0.196
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.118 0.134
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.004
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 20 23:45:37 EST 2013

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