2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 10

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 84.118 14.326 1.458 0.098
NY Jets 12.734 59.258 20.612 7.396
Miami 2.316 17.396 39.786 40.502
Buffalo 0.832 9.02 38.144 52.004

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 91.932 6.872 1.066 0.13
Cleveland 5.59 48.274 29.426 16.71
Baltimore 1.258 18.054 40.454 40.234
Pittsburgh 1.22 26.8 29.054 42.926

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 84.36 13.6 2.028 0.012
Tennessee 13.008 54.808 31.27 0.914
Houston 2.622 31.06 61.03 5.288
Jacksonville 0.01 0.532 5.672 93.786

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 73.472 26.378 0.15 0.0
Kansas City 26.5 72.288 1.212 0.0
San Diego 0.028 1.326 87.472 11.174
Oakland 0.0 0.008 11.166 88.826

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 67.786 26.17 5.468 0.576
Dallas 27.596 46.202 22.41 3.792
NY Giants 3.484 20.774 46.986 28.756
Washington 1.134 6.854 25.136 66.876

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 61.092 31.722 7.182 0.004
Green Bay 32.162 39.75 27.894 0.194
Chicago 6.746 28.494 64.084 0.676
Minnesota 0.0 0.034 0.84 99.126

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 81.064 18.932 0.004 0.0
Carolina 18.936 80.868 0.194 0.002
Atlanta 0.0 0.196 81.198 18.606
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.004 18.604 81.392

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 96.322 3.592 0.086 0.0
San Francisco 3.556 79.766 15.798 0.88
Arizona 0.12 16.006 74.884 8.99
St Louis 0.002 0.636 9.232 90.13

Generated: Wed Nov 13 23:43:22 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 67.278 5.174 0.922 0.098 25.858 0.57 99.9
Kansas City 24.892 1.46 0.138 0.01 71.052 2.084 99.636
New England 4.716 25.452 31.738 22.212 0.524 8.274 92.916
Cincinnati 2.056 46.818 29.356 13.702 0.162 3.528 95.622
Indianapolis 1.014 16.778 25.036 41.532 0.076 2.806 87.242
NY Jets 0.018 1.746 5.458 5.512 0.758 29.916 43.408
Tennessee 0.01 0.848 3.278 8.872 0.092 8.176 21.276
Cleveland 0.002 0.952 1.89 2.746 0.078 11.46 17.128
Miami 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.716 0.22 9.604 12.14
Baltimore 0.0 0.196 0.378 0.684 0.028 3.912 5.198
San Diego 0.014 0.008 0.004 0.002 1.11 12.238 13.376
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.05 0.326 0.844 0.032 3.176 4.428
Houston 0.0 0.018 0.256 2.348 0.0 2.174 4.796
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.712 0.002 1.656 2.49
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.01
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.008 0.426 0.434

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 74.138 19.494 2.5 0.19 3.192 0.35 99.864
New Orleans 22.566 50.676 7.056 0.766 10.558 6.162 97.784
Carolina 0.812 13.364 4.164 0.596 34.414 22.616 75.966
Detroit 0.678 8.526 39.156 12.732 4.12 9.01 74.222
San Francisco 1.656 1.54 0.33 0.03 34.842 30.092 68.49
Philadelphia 0.034 3.644 20.708 43.4 0.968 3.05 71.804
Green Bay 0.088 2.162 19.274 10.638 2.816 9.106 44.084
Chicago 0.0 0.302 4.314 2.13 1.876 6.328 14.95
Dallas 0.008 0.212 2.1 25.276 0.304 1.914 29.814
Arizona 0.02 0.076 0.022 0.002 6.822 10.646 17.588
NY Giants 0.0 0.002 0.36 3.122 0.054 0.494 4.032
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.016 1.118 0.008 0.112 1.254
St Louis 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.112 0.138
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.008 0.01
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 13 23:43:22 EST 2013

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.