2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 12

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.344 2.466 0.19 0.0
NY Jets 0.47 37.698 33.94 27.892
Miami 1.586 39.964 29.384 29.066
Buffalo 0.6 19.872 36.486 43.042

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 92.982 6.06 0.872 0.086
Pittsburgh 5.126 57.326 20.654 16.894
Baltimore 1.712 21.092 42.426 34.77
Cleveland 0.18 15.522 36.048 48.25

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 97.22 2.75 0.03 0.0
Tennessee 2.756 88.634 7.908 0.702
Houston 0.02 6.71 56.552 36.718
Jacksonville 0.004 1.906 35.51 62.58

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 89.98 9.89 0.13 0.0
Kansas City 10.008 87.496 2.494 0.002
San Diego 0.012 2.592 85.92 11.476
Oakland 0.0 0.022 11.456 88.522

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 65.508 31.982 2.5 0.01
Dallas 34.154 59.686 6.03 0.13
NY Giants 0.332 7.194 71.646 20.828
Washington 0.006 1.138 19.824 79.032

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 47.344 35.304 17.116 0.236
Green Bay 35.756 30.682 33.486 0.076
Chicago 16.9 33.96 48.438 0.702
Minnesota 0.0 0.054 0.96 98.986

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.152 9.848 0.0 0.0
Carolina 9.848 90.15 0.002 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.002 61.824 38.174
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 38.174 61.826

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 97.57 2.284 0.146 0.0
San Francisco 2.14 69.118 27.622 1.12
Arizona 0.29 28.206 68.236 3.268
St Louis 0.0 0.392 3.996 95.612

Generated: Wed Nov 27 19:38:59 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 72.016 14.238 3.3 0.426 9.794 0.196 99.97
New England 13.67 32.83 33.058 17.786 0.224 1.436 99.004
Cincinnati 4.94 34.808 36.788 16.446 0.37 2.884 96.236
Kansas City 7.646 1.95 0.356 0.056 85.092 3.998 99.098
Indianapolis 1.722 15.558 23.378 56.562 0.01 0.372 97.602
Miami 0.002 0.282 0.858 0.444 1.408 21.784 24.778
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.096 1.134 3.896 0.646 19.068 24.84
Baltimore 0.0 0.154 0.506 1.052 0.184 7.714 9.61
Tennessee 0.002 0.062 0.43 2.262 0.216 11.092 14.064
NY Jets 0.0 0.016 0.106 0.348 0.066 8.584 9.12
San Diego 0.002 0.004 0.004 0.002 1.934 15.23 17.176
Buffalo 0.0 0.002 0.048 0.55 0.0 2.414 3.014
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.146 0.042 4.332 4.554
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.014 0.034
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.88 0.894
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.002 0.006

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 65.284 31.958 0.328 0.0 1.962 0.402 99.934
New Orleans 34.022 55.498 0.63 0.002 8.55 1.19 99.892
Carolina 0.62 8.984 0.242 0.002 51.172 25.406 86.426
Philadelphia 0.0 1.138 40.986 23.384 0.908 3.552 69.968
Detroit 0.0 0.092 23.454 23.798 0.194 1.598 49.136
San Francisco 0.06 1.98 0.094 0.006 20.122 44.68 66.942
Green Bay 0.0 0.012 15.162 20.582 0.07 0.948 36.774
Dallas 0.0 0.072 10.276 23.806 0.298 2.438 36.89
Chicago 0.0 0.002 8.754 8.144 0.096 0.774 17.77
Arizona 0.014 0.264 0.012 0.0 16.608 18.716 35.614
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.062 0.27 0.006 0.152 0.49
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.0 0.0 0.006
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.142 0.156
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 27 19:38:59 EST 2013

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.